0 WAR for Zack Greinke?

Avindian · 04-24-2015, 04:35 PM

League owner pointed this out to me, which screams "bug" to me. How on earth could Greinke have a WAR of 0.0 with that statistical record? There are pitchers far worse than him with a positive WAR. It's not Greinke's glove -- he's been solidly above average. We're a DH league, so no problems with the bat either.

I attached an example from another pitcher, who's clearly worse, but still has a positive WAR.

Is there a way I can fix this, or force a recalculation of WAR, somehow? I'm not sure if it's worth filing a bug report, but I might do that too if other people have seen this.

Threnodas · 04-24-2015, 06:43 PM

I think it's working as designed.

OOTP now uses Fangraphs' WAR definition (fWAR), and for pitchers that's based on fielding-independent pitching (FIP). FIP uses only the "three true outcomes" that are strictly between the pitcher and the hitter and have nothing to do with the defense / balls in play: BB/9, HR/9, and K/9. If you compare those three stats between Greinke and McCall, you'll see that Greinke is worse in HR/9 and K/9 and not much better in BB/9. HR are weighted more heavily than BB in the calculation of FIP (because a HR is worth more runs on average than a BB), so Greinke's FIP is worse than McCall's. Thus, his WAR (or his WAR/9, actually) is going to be worse than McCall's.

As for why Greinke has the worse FIP/WAR when his ERA and WHIP are so much better, you can see a large difference in their batting average on balls in play (BABIP). The pitchers may have a small amount of control over that, but sabermetrics shows that most variation in BABIP is due to random luck rather than pitcher skill. Thus, FIP was invented explicitly to take BABIP out of the equation, and when you do that, Greinke is just another AAAA scrub.

Avindian · 04-25-2015, 11:38 PM

Thanks! I knew we were using Fangraphs WAR this season, but I wasn't certain how it was calculated.

DustinthePOWERHOUSE · 04-26-2015, 08:51 PM

WAR for pitchers is still a poor way of evaluating pitchers anyway, there's plenty of better ways to judge.

Raidergoo · 04-26-2015, 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DustinthePOWERHOUSE

WAR for pitchers is still a poor way of evaluating pitchers anyway, there's plenty of better ways to judge.

Please name them.

olivertheorem · 04-26-2015, 11:11 PM

ERA, wins, number of times the right fielder does a backflip after the inning is over....

DustinthePOWERHOUSE · 04-27-2015, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raidergoo

Please name them.

FIP, K/9, BB/9, LOB%, GB %

All of these tell more than WAR. And to be fair I think WAR is a very useful tool for hitters because the calculations make a lot more sense. But WAR for pitchers doesn't really seem to be used or tell much. And I'm not saying I would rather use VORP, but I think with pitchers especially there's plenty of better ways of calculating whether a pitcher is good/great or not.

Matt Arnold · 04-27-2015, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DustinthePOWERHOUSE

FIP, K/9, BB/9, LOB%, GB %

All of these tell more than WAR. And to be fair I think WAR is a very useful tool for hitters because the calculations make a lot more sense. But WAR for pitchers doesn't really seem to be used or tell much. And I'm not saying I would rather use VORP, but I think with pitchers especially there's plenty of better ways of calculating whether a pitcher is good/great or not.

Our version of WAR for pitchers essentially takes FIP and turns it into a counting stat, factoring in the number of innings they pitch. So if you like FIP, WAR for pitchers is the same thing.

DustinthePOWERHOUSE · 04-27-2015, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Our version of WAR for pitchers essentially takes FIP and turns it into a counting stat, factoring in the number of innings they pitch. So if you like FIP, WAR for pitchers is the same thing.

Fair enough it's not so much a criticism as I just don't use it to evaluate pitchers. For hitters it's a great tool however.

04-24-2015, 04:35 PM	#1
Avindian Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Houston, TX Posts: 274	0 WAR for Zack Greinke? League owner pointed this out to me, which screams "bug" to me. How on earth could Greinke have a WAR of 0.0 with that statistical record? There are pitchers far worse than him with a positive WAR. It's not Greinke's glove -- he's been solidly above average. We're a DH league, so no problems with the bat either. I attached an example from another pitcher, who's clearly worse, but still has a positive WAR. Is there a way I can fix this, or force a recalculation of WAR, somehow? I'm not sure if it's worth filing a bug report, but I might do that too if other people have seen this. Attached Images

04-26-2015, 08:51 PM	#4
DustinthePOWERHOUSE All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: Boston Posts: 870	WAR for pitchers is still a poor way of evaluating pitchers anyway, there's plenty of better ways to judge. __________________ Shootin' at the walls of heartache, BANG BANG, I am THE WARRIOR! "It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am"- Ali Wladimir Klitschko will DESTROY you.

04-24-2015, 06:43 PM	#2
Threnodas Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 256	I think it's working as designed. OOTP now uses Fangraphs' WAR definition (fWAR), and for pitchers that's based on fielding-independent pitching (FIP). FIP uses only the "three true outcomes" that are strictly between the pitcher and the hitter and have nothing to do with the defense / balls in play: BB/9, HR/9, and K/9. If you compare those three stats between Greinke and McCall, you'll see that Greinke is worse in HR/9 and K/9 and not much better in BB/9. HR are weighted more heavily than BB in the calculation of FIP (because a HR is worth more runs on average than a BB), so Greinke's FIP is worse than McCall's. Thus, his WAR (or his WAR/9, actually) is going to be worse than McCall's. As for why Greinke has the worse FIP/WAR when his ERA and WHIP are so much better, you can see a large difference in their batting average on balls in play (BABIP). The pitchers may have a small amount of control over that, but sabermetrics shows that most variation in BABIP is due to random luck rather than pitcher skill. Thus, FIP was invented explicitly to take BABIP out of the equation, and when you do that, Greinke is just another AAAA scrub.

04-25-2015, 11:38 PM	#3
Avindian Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Houston, TX Posts: 274	Thanks! I knew we were using Fangraphs WAR this season, but I wasn't certain how it was calculated.

04-26-2015, 11:11 PM	#6
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	ERA, wins, number of times the right fielder does a backflip after the inning is over....