Anyone noticing players declining absurdly early?

[tejdog1]

I didn't notice it until patching to 6.31, but I've got players who are declining at 25/26 years old, others at 27/28. I have no idea what this is - but it's somewhat annoying.

Anyone else seeing this? This is whether the aging modifiers are left to 1.000 or changed to really low values (I changed them to 0.350 batter aging and 0.500 pitcher aging and it still happens)

[Lukas Berger]

I guess I don't see what's wrong with that? It happens irl. There are actually a ton of different aging curves, it's not nearly the case that guys get better till they're 27-30 and then gradually decline, like we tend to think usually happens.

[Lukas Berger]

Just a few examples off the top of my head: Kevin Maas, Bob Hamelin, Angel Berroa, Pat Listach, Dan Johnson, Bobby Crosby, Sam Horn, Gordon Beckham, Khalil Greene, Richard Hidalgo, Josh Phelps...

EDIT: Some recent Mets centric examples: Josh Thole, Nick Evans, Mike Jacobs, Jeff Francouer. Ruben Tejada seems to possibly be headed in that direction.

For pitchers, there are more guys like this than space to write them out here.

[tejdog1]

None of those guys were superstars, though. I'm talking superstars.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by lukasberger

Just a few examples off the top of my head: Kevin Maas, Bob Hamelin, Angel Berroa, Pat Listach, Dan Johnson, Bobby Crosby, Sam Horn, Gordon Beckham, Khalil Greene, Richard Hidalgo, Josh Phelps...

For pitchers, there are more guys like this than space to write them out here.

I'm using 1 year recalc right now and I'm amazed every season to witness just how bizarre so many real players career arcs truly are. I know a lot of times this is tied to injuries, but it's still stunning to see how many guys seem to be here today, gone tomorrow. So much so, that I've come to the conclusion that 3 year recalc actually may be the better option, as it softens the peaks and valleys.

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by tejdog1

None of those guys were superstars, though. I'm talking superstars.

Jay Bruce looks like he may be headed in that direction. Then there are guys like Mark Fydrich, Eric Davis, or Tony Conigliaro (injuries there, of course). Hank Blalock may not have been a superstar but he was a star for a while.

There are surely other examples I'm not thinking of. Maybe I'll do some research when I get a chance and see if that jogs my memory.

The problem is that the guys this happened to aren't going to be considered superstars irl since they only had a year or two that was great. But some would've been superstars had they kept up their initial level of play, as with Francouer, Maas or Hidalgo. Maybe even Greene.

[tejdog1]

Francoeur? This guy?

[ArcAngel]

Originally Posted by tejdog1

Francoeur? This guy?

Holy hell what is he swinging at??

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by tejdog1

Francoeur? This guy?

He was excellent his first couple years. Well, his first and third year at least. Given his draft pedigree and after he hit .300/.336/.549 his rookie year, he was generally viewed as a budding superstar.

Problem is that he was essentially toast after his third year, at 24, except for a couple decent fluky dead cat bounce years, one with the Mets and one with the Royals.

That's kind of my point, he fell and fell hard really early. So the guys that did that, you don't think of a superstars, but for a year or two, they may have been. OOTP actually gets that right.

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by ArcAngel

Holy hell what is he swinging at??

He's showing unusually good plate discipline (for him) in that pic

[Number4]

Could be a hit and run or protecting a basestealer by distracting the catcher if you're below 2 strikes.

[BMD]

Originally Posted by Number4

Could be a hit and run or protecting a basestealer by distracting the catcher if you're below 2 strikes.

Wow, look everybody. I had no idea Jeff Francoeur's dad posted here.

[Lafayette53]

Sounds like a couple of your guys got unlucky talent change randomness hits. Unless it happens to every single star I wouldn't be too worried. If you really want it to be more predictable you can lower that setting, though as I've played more I've actually come to prefer higher TCR's.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Lafayette53

Sounds like a couple of your guys got unlucky talent change randomness hits. Unless it happens to every single star I wouldn't be too worried. If you really want it to be more predictable you can lower that setting, though as I've played more I've actually come to prefer higher TCR's.

If the OP is seeing significant decline over time then it is more likely to be development and aging modifier related. TCR is like sawteeth of variable height that occur within the dev/aging curve.

[The Wolf]

Scorsese?s Oscar: Mike Trout Finally Won the MVP, But Could He Already Be in Decline? «

Even Trout may be declining early.

[The Wolf]

Mike Trout is merely incredible now - SBNation.com

Another version, including a projected decline curve.

[tejdog1]

Not buying.
Trout's gonna put up a 10+ WAR next year.

[The Wolf]

Originally Posted by tejdog1

Not buying.
Trout's gonna put up a 10+ WAR next year.

Explain to me how you can get that from looking at the last few years of data.

[baseballonly]

Trout is not declining. That's called regression to the mean. It is impossible to put up legendary numbers every season.

[The Game]

Originally Posted by lukasberger

Just a few examples off the top of my head: Gordon Beckham

Beckham never declined, he just never got any better.