Injury rates by month?

[hfield007]

Interested if this is reflected in the game.

Players being 10.6 times more likely to be hurt in April than in September... yet always seems like September I get killed with injuries.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by hfield007

Interested if this is reflected in the game.

Players being 10.6 times more likely to be hurt in April than in September... yet always seems like September I get killed with injuries.

This is a needed and critical upgrade. I've lost as many as 5 key players in September several times. Makes losing in the playoffs very frustrating.

I would certainly like to see and know that the injury frequency reflects real life data by month.

[hfield007]

Epidemiology of Major League Baseball Injuries


this glazes over the data they found however the full article costs $36 that I just am not gonna spend on four pages of data.

But the realistic injury data is out there and I think it is foolish if not represented correctly in the game.

[hfield007]

I'm gonna compare the 4 years of DL data on baseballheatmaps to 4 years of quickstart MLB DL data on OOTP and see if there is a discrepancy.

[injury log]

Well obviously you'll find way, way more DL assignments in March/April, because all the players with 12 month injuries from the previous year need to be placed back on the DL then (the DL doesn't exist in the offseason), and a lot of 40-man guys who are injured in Spring Training have to be placed on the big league DL, even though they'd be minor leaguers during the regular season and would go on the minor league DL then. And in September, teams often don't need to place players on the 15-day DL at all, because they don't need to free up active roster spots once rosters expand to 40 players on Sept 1. A guy out for 9 days in April is much more likely to end up on the DL than a guy out for 9 days in September.

If you're studying DL assignments, you're learning more about how MLB teams use the DL than you are about injury frequency. It is, from my understanding looking at actual injury data, true that injury frequency is higher in April than in September, but studying DL usage will greatly overestimate the discrepancy between those two times of year. It is also true that OOTP does not model that phenomenon at the moment. On beta the last couple of years, I've requested the injury model be changed to reflect variable injury frequency during the year, and I expect it will be at some point fairly soon (meaning in a patch, in v16 or in v17). There are millions of little things like this that would be nice to see in the game, and unfortunately only a finite amount of time for Markus to code them, but he does seem to get to all of this kind of stuff eventually.

[hfield007]

These are all things I'm trying to look at and take account for but i'm not quite sure the information is there. As I said that article was $36 that i wouldn't pay to see what all they looked at when writing it.

I think a small way to represent anything in my league is to play

Spring Training - Injury High
April-August - Normal
September - Low

The data has been interesting but all of the information is obviously not there that I need.

[ghostrobot]

Originally Posted by hfield007

These are all things I'm trying to look at and take account for but i'm not quite sure the information is there. As I said that article was $36 that i wouldn't pay to see what all they looked at when writing it.

I think a small way to represent anything in my league is to play

Spring Training - Injury High
April-August - Normal
September - Low

The data has been interesting but all of the information is obviously not there that I need.

I may have to try this. I've had a few of my teams completely decimated by late season injuries. Not only my teams, but the computer controlled teams as well. I hate having to play/sim through a playoff where one team is missing their 3 top pitchers and the other has a starting lineup full of September callups...