Does the AI undervalue elite closers?

torpidbeaver · 07-24-2013, 12:35 AM

Playing as the Mariners at the '13 trade deadline, shopped Tom Wilhelmsen around and didn't get a single offer.

Guy is on a cheap contract, leads the league in saves and has a 1.something ERA, basically lights out with only one blown save for the team and no interest? Do I need to propose trades myself or what?

I've been stalled out here at two days before the trade deadline for a RL week because I sense I should make a trade to send up the white flag on my season but can't find a single reasonable trade (for Wilhelmsen or anyone else).

Mister_G · 07-24-2013, 01:34 AM

Maybe lower the trade difficulty? IDK, alot of people say that hard is the most realistic, but I play on average and find it fine. Occasionally, I'll not do a trade if it seems heavily in my favor, but it doesn't seem to happen to often.

IRL good relievers in general are easy to come by, so it's hard to get a solid haul in a trade, and it's not really worth it to offer them big deals at least IMO.

There's my 2 cents. Haven't looked into whether the AI does actually undervalue closers.

SirMichaelJordan · 07-24-2013, 12:37 PM

Whats his ratings and what AI Eval settings are you using?

torpidbeaver · 07-24-2013, 01:14 PM

50/27/17/6 -- Hard difficulty, Favor Prospects

Wilhelmsen 3.5/3.5, $490k, 29 Years Old
20/15/10
Fastball - 17
Sinker - 14
Curveball - 19

1.31 ERA, 48 IP, 50 K, 18 BB, 1.04 WHIP, 314 ERA+, 31 SV

Do I need to put it to favor "neutral" and drop the emphasis on ratings, maybe? I don't want to screw the AI, but I'd like to get a somewhat realistic trade market.

soxfan34 · 07-24-2013, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by torpidbeaver

50/27/17/6 -- Hard difficulty, Favor Prospects

Wilhelmsen 3.5/3.5, $490k, 29 Years Old
20/15/10
Fastball - 17
Sinker - 14
Curveball - 19

1.31 ERA, 48 IP, 50 K, 18 BB, 1.04 WHIP, 314 ERA+, 31 SV

Do I need to put it to favor "neutral" and drop the emphasis on ratings, maybe? I don't want to screw the AI, but I'd like to get a somewhat realistic trade market.

Try 0/70/20/10 or something, so the primary focus for evaluation is his current year stats.

Dutch Alexander · 07-24-2013, 02:37 PM

Does the AI undervalue elite closers? - No, humans overvalue closers!

JMDurron · 07-24-2013, 06:49 PM

Yeah, I'm not sure that there is a way to make the OOTP AI as stupid as most actual humans are when it comes to closers.

Boston15 · 07-26-2013, 01:33 AM

You have it set on "favor prospects" so if you're trying to trade Wilhelmsen one-for-one I suppose that explains the lack of suitors. Maybe finding a deal for a couple minor leaguers instead.

For me, I get a pretty realistic trade market by setting trade frequency to low but trade difficulty on average instead.

Left-handed Badger · 07-26-2013, 04:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dutch Alexander

Does the AI undervalue elite closers? - No, humans overvalue closers!

Definitely find both to be true. When I play game-to-game instead of simming, I rarely have a closer, though. And I also tend to sometimes use my ace reliever to some extent in the Fireman/Stopper method of yore.

Left-handed Badger · 07-26-2013, 04:58 AM

I also seem to be the only one who cant get the AI to make a fair trade with me regardless of setting. The AI gets ridiculous sometimes. To get a player, it seems it wants at least 2 players of equal or greater value.

MY general ritual with trades is at first try to make a trade, if the AI is in "one of its moods" and gets contrarian. I will think hard would these teams realisitcally make such a trade. If the answer is yes, then time for the comish. (and like I said when using the comish I try to make sure the trades would realistically be made, I dont do it to cheat*)

*well, except one time, when I felt the AI's offer was being "insulting" in an offer it made......for about 6 days straight........by a team that was battling me for a WC spot. Not proud of it, but neither of us made the playoffs as it turned out.

ohms_law · 07-26-2013, 09:50 AM

The thing is, RP's are a dime a dozen in OOTP. So, no, I don't think that the AI undervalues RP's at all.

KurtBevacqua · 07-26-2013, 02:58 PM

Maybe it's more of a matter we as human beings have bought into the now conventional wisdom that closers should be overvalued, thus it is really our perception of them that is overvalued, not the game's.

torpidbeaver · 07-26-2013, 06:26 PM

I guess I was expecting to get at least one reasonable offer, given his great performance, low salary, average age, and good ratings. Like, anyone who isn't Adam Dunn?

Especially since the AI is trading plenty of relievers and the occasional closer around team to team for some decent prospects in my league? I look at all of those trades and wonder what's wrong with my guy(s).

I guess I mean that it looks like the AI assigns *some* value to good and elite relievers, and I can't seem to get on that trading train.

But yeah, I'll try rejiggering the weight numbers.

injury log · 07-26-2013, 07:39 PM

"Does the AI undervalue elite closers?"

You'd need to try trading an elite closer to find out. Not a 3.5-star reliever.

07-24-2013, 12:35 AM	#1
torpidbeaver Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 391	Does the AI undervalue elite closers? Playing as the Mariners at the '13 trade deadline, shopped Tom Wilhelmsen around and didn't get a single offer. Guy is on a cheap contract, leads the league in saves and has a 1.something ERA, basically lights out with only one blown save for the team and no interest? Do I need to propose trades myself or what? I've been stalled out here at two days before the trade deadline for a RL week because I sense I should make a trade to send up the white flag on my season but can't find a single reasonable trade (for Wilhelmsen or anyone else).

07-24-2013, 01:34 AM	#2
Mister_G All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 576	Maybe lower the trade difficulty? IDK, alot of people say that hard is the most realistic, but I play on average and find it fine. Occasionally, I'll not do a trade if it seems heavily in my favor, but it doesn't seem to happen to often. IRL good relievers in general are easy to come by, so it's hard to get a solid haul in a trade, and it's not really worth it to offer them big deals at least IMO. There's my 2 cents. Haven't looked into whether the AI does actually undervalue closers. __________________ A man doesn't make mistakes, mistakes make the man @MisterG90

07-24-2013, 12:37 PM	#3
SirMichaelJordan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 2,716	Does the AI undervalue elite closers? Whats his ratings and what AI Eval settings are you using?

07-26-2013, 04:58 AM	#10
Left-handed Badger Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: at the altar of the baseball god praying for middle infield that can catch the ball Posts: 2,036	I also seem to be the only one who cant get the AI to make a fair trade with me regardless of setting. The AI gets ridiculous sometimes. To get a player, it seems it wants at least 2 players of equal or greater value. MY general ritual with trades is at first try to make a trade, if the AI is in "one of its moods" and gets contrarian. I will think hard would these teams realisitcally make such a trade. If the answer is yes, then time for the comish. (and like I said when using the comish I try to make sure the trades would realistically be made, I dont do it to cheat) well, except one time, when I felt the AI's offer was being "insulting" in an offer it made......for about 6 days straight........by a team that was battling me for a WC spot. Not proud of it, but neither of us made the playoffs as it turned out. __________________ -Left-handed groundball specialist -Strikeouts are for wimps

07-26-2013, 09:50 AM	#11
ohms_law Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 232	The thing is, RP's are a dime a dozen in OOTP. So, no, I don't think that the AI undervalues RP's at all. __________________ You insist that there is something a machine cannot do. If you will tell me precisely what it is that a machine cannot do, then I can always make a machine which will do just that! -J. von Neumann

07-24-2013, 01:14 PM	#4
torpidbeaver Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 391	50/27/17/6 -- Hard difficulty, Favor Prospects Wilhelmsen 3.5/3.5, $490k, 29 Years Old 20/15/10 Fastball - 17 Sinker - 14 Curveball - 19 1.31 ERA, 48 IP, 50 K, 18 BB, 1.04 WHIP, 314 ERA+, 31 SV Do I need to put it to favor "neutral" and drop the emphasis on ratings, maybe? I don't want to screw the AI, but I'd like to get a somewhat realistic trade market.

07-24-2013, 02:37 PM	#6
Dutch Alexander All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Amsterdam Posts: 728	Does the AI undervalue elite closers? - No, humans overvalue closers!

07-24-2013, 06:49 PM	#7
JMDurron All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,260	Yeah, I'm not sure that there is a way to make the OOTP AI as stupid as most actual humans are when it comes to closers.

07-26-2013, 01:33 AM	#8
Boston15 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 47	You have it set on "favor prospects" so if you're trying to trade Wilhelmsen one-for-one I suppose that explains the lack of suitors. Maybe finding a deal for a couple minor leaguers instead. For me, I get a pretty realistic trade market by setting trade frequency to low but trade difficulty on average instead.

07-26-2013, 02:58 PM	#12
KurtBevacqua Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 2,968	Maybe it's more of a matter we as human beings have bought into the now conventional wisdom that closers should be overvalued, thus it is really our perception of them that is overvalued, not the game's. __________________ "The type and formula of most schemes of philanthropy or humanitarianism is this: A and B put their heads together to decide what C shall be made to do for D. The radical vice of all these schemes, from a sociological point of view, is that C is not allowed a voice in the matter, and his position, character, and interests, as well as the ultimate effects on society through C's interests, are entirely overlooked. I call C the Forgotten Man" - William Graham Sumner

07-26-2013, 06:26 PM	#13
torpidbeaver Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 391	I guess I was expecting to get at least one reasonable offer, given his great performance, low salary, average age, and good ratings. Like, anyone who isn't Adam Dunn? Especially since the AI is trading plenty of relievers and the occasional closer around team to team for some decent prospects in my league? I look at all of those trades and wonder what's wrong with my guy(s). I guess I mean that it looks like the AI assigns some value to good and elite relievers, and I can't seem to get on that trading train. But yeah, I'll try rejiggering the weight numbers. Last edited by torpidbeaver; 07-26-2013 at 06:44 PM.

07-26-2013, 07:39 PM	#14
injury log Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Toronto Posts: 9,162	"Does the AI undervalue elite closers?" You'd need to try trading an elite closer to find out. Not a 3.5-star reliever.