The Effects of Wind in OOTP14

[native son]

I couldn’t find any definitive answers on the effects of wind in OOTP14, particularly on home runs. I took a crude look at this, using two fictional teams. I set both ballparks to the same cosmetic settings, with fence heights of 10ft. I set all ballpark factors to 1.000. One team was set to play in a dome with no wind, the other team was set to 15mph wind. I ran 1000 game simulations with games played in the dome, then 1000 games each with the wind blowing in from center, blowing out to center, and blowing from left to right.

Taking the combined team home run totals from the teams for each circumstance, it would seem that the wind does have some expected effect on home runs at least. Wind blowing out produced the most HR’s per game, wind blowing in produced the least, and wind blowing across produced slightly less than the no wind dome.

Have any of our resident heavyweight analysts or anyone else done a more in depth study on this? I’d love some more insight on this.
Thanks!

[Cinnamon J. Scudworth]

Yes, this was confirmed in OOTP 13, if not earlier.

[native son]

Was there an analysis on it that I missed? I'll search again, but can you possibly point me to the link?

Thanks!

[Cinnamon J. Scudworth]

Originally Posted by native son

Was there an analysis on it that I missed? I'll search again, but can you possibly point me to the link?

Thanks!

I can't find a discussion on it specifically, but it's mentioned in the manual:
Out of the Park Baseball Manual - Weather

Weather Data by Month
The left side of the screen lists the weather by month for the selected ballpark:

Changing these values will directly impact the weather for games in this ballpark. Remember to hit Enter after changing any values to save your changes! The wind can also have an impact on games, especially home runs!

[Andy]

Originally Posted by Cinnamon J. Scudworth

I can't find a discussion on it specifically, but it's mentioned in the manual:
Out of the Park Baseball Manual - Weather

I never knew it had that much affect on players. Interesting!

[native son]

Originally Posted by Cinnamon J. Scudworth

I can't find a discussion on it specifically, but it's mentioned in the manual:
Out of the Park Baseball Manual - Weather

Yes, but I don't know that the wind effect has ever been quantified or at least explained in more detail. What I think happens is that the wind becomes a park factor of its own ... I'm just wondering how much. For example, if two HR park factors for two different stadiums are both set at 1.00, but one has wind blowing out while the other has wind blowing in, then the real park factors may be 1.05 / 0.95 respectively.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by native son

Yes, but I don't know that the wind effect has ever been quantified or at least explained in more detail. What I think happens is that the wind becomes a park factor of its own ... I'm just wondering how much. For example, if two HR park factors for two different stadiums are both set at 1.00, but one has wind blowing out while the other has wind blowing in, then the real park factors may be 1.05 / 0.95 respectively.

That's certainly possible. Suffice it to say that the wind has an effect. Do you need more detail? IRL Teams show up, play in the weather of the day and go onto the next game.

[Déjà Bru]

Originally Posted by native son

Yes, but I don't know that the wind effect has ever been quantified or at least explained in more detail. What I think happens is that the wind becomes a park factor of its own ... I'm just wondering how much. For example, if two HR park factors for two different stadiums are both set at 1.00, but one has wind blowing out while the other has wind blowing in, then the real park factors may be 1.05 / 0.95 respectively.

I like where you are going here, native son. You may be just the person to perform such an analysis!

[The Wolf]

Originally Posted by RchW

That's certainly possible. Suffice it to say that the wind has an effect. Do you need more detail? IRL Teams show up, play in the weather of the day and go onto the next game.

Now that was impressively philosophical.

[native son]

Originally Posted by RchW

Do you need more detail? IRL Teams show up, play in the weather of the day and go onto the next game.

IRL ... agreed. However in our SIMULATION where assigned park factor numbers affect the statistical output of our fictional and/or historical players, more detail would be nice, yes. We're reverse engineering what happens IRL as best we can.

[native son]

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

I like where you are going here, native son. You may be just the person to perform such an analysis!

Oh boy ... I can give it a crack, though was definitely deferring if someone with more chops had already tackled it.

[Charlie Hough]

I don't think anyone has done a statistical analysis of wind effects in OOTP, but Markus could probably clear it up in a single sentence.

Based on postings I've seen from him in the past, I believe the model works this way: the play result is generated but then the wind and weather have the final influence on what happens. So the wind can blow a ball out of the park that would otherwise be caught near the warning track, and it can keep balls in play that would have otherwise cleared the outfield wall.

I can't give you decimals and statistics to indicate the degree of the influence. You would have to control for individual wind speeds and not merely the fact that the wind is blowing in, out, or right/left. That would make for a lengthy and detailed project, and I personally don't think it's worth anyone's time.

But I can assure you that the effect is there and it's significant when the wind is blowing at higher speeds. If you play out enough games, you will clearly see that power hitters become more dangerous and home runs become more frequent when the wind is blowing out. And the effect increases with the speed of the wind.

So, if there is a stiff breeze blowing out for a game, I know I'm in for trouble. I need to have a starting pitcher who can keep the ball down, I need to occasionally play my outfield deep against long ball hitters or pitch around them more frequently, and otherwise I have to be prepared for a day that could be high scoring with multiple home runs.

When the wind is blowing in, especially at a decent speed, then I know the game will tend to favor my pitchers and decrease home runs. But there are NEVER any guarantees.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by native son

IRL ... agreed. However in our SIMULATION where assigned park factor numbers affect the statistical output of our fictional and/or historical players, more detail would be nice, yes. We're reverse engineering what happens IRL as best we can.

Right and have at it.

Assigned park factors already include the weather component by definition. Good luck figuring out what amount of each PF is attributable to weather, including time of day, year to year weather variability etc.

In the case of historical less should be the rule. Way back in the v5 v6 days Ankit a long gone poster made the point that historical stats already have park factors included so historical leagues should make all park factors 1 in OOTP. Neutralized stats are already based on 1 or 100 PF (BR FG)

The response is always "what about player trades", the answer is "sure" but show me how to separate weather from a new stadium orientation, new lineup, or batting order, from being pissed at the trade, better pitching and any inevitable player development in either direction.

When I look at this it seems to be a factor buried inside other factors each of which individually may not be right. I'm trying to understand what effect (say % of X) you expect wind to be and if that effect has a significant effect on stat output league wise or player wise.

[Déjà Bru]

Originally Posted by RchW

Right and have at it.

I see that Rich has also added his "blessings," native son. I think, though, that you may want to settle back in your easy chair with the comforting knowledge that the Creator has made wind in this game, and it is good.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

I see that Rich has also added his "blessings," native son. I think, though, that you may want to settle back in your easy chair with the comforting knowledge that the Creator has made wind in this game, and it is good.

So not being assured of the creator passing wind on command the Yankees made the short porch.

[native son]

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

I believe the model works this way: the play result is generated but then the wind and weather have the final influence on what happens. So the wind can blow a ball out of the park that would otherwise be caught near the warning track, and it can keep balls in play that would have otherwise cleared the outfield wall.

Great info, and thanks for this!

[native son]

Originally Posted by RchW

Assigned park factors already include the weather component by definition.

Right! ... and this was kinda my assumption going in, that we're likely adding park factors on top of park factors, particularly if the play outcome works as Charlie describes above. Not such a biggie if the effects are negligible, but another story if the effects are moderate to significant. I actually love that it works this way, but it seems that it would take a lot to find out for sure that say, X amount of wind, blowing in Y direction, increases or decreases home runs by Z%.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by native son

Right! ... and this was kinda my assumption going in, that we're likely adding park factors on top of park factors, particularly if the play outcome works as Charlie describes above. Not such a biggie if the effects are negligible, but another story if the effects are moderate to significant. I actually love that it works this way, but it seems that it would take a lot to find out for sure that say, X amount of wind, blowing in Y direction, increases or decreases home runs by Z%.

That applies to real life. Park factors can only be determined after the fact. That's why it's unlikely that it has any significant effect. Take a look at park factors on ESPN or BR over several years.

[The Game]

Originally Posted by native son

Right! ... and this was kinda my assumption going in, that we're likely adding park factors on top of park factors, particularly if the play outcome works as Charlie describes above. Not such a biggie if the effects are negligible, but another story if the effects are moderate to significant. I actually love that it works this way, but it seems that it would take a lot to find out for sure that say, X amount of wind, blowing in Y direction, increases or decreases home runs by Z%.

Gambo's new Stadium chrt factors in wind. Now with his new file Joe Robbie become a hitters heaven. I have not checked Old Comiskey which the SW wind blew to RF line whereas the SW wind blows to the LF line/LF in The Cell.

It's fun in fictional leagues using real parks and changing certain things about them. I have a team that plays in Octopus Garden (Wrigley Field) with 0 wind and 80 degree temps year round. It is in the underwater city of Atlantis. Atlantis is an underwater dome city. I use Bank One in a city that plays like Charleston, SC with very high humidity gonna be interesting to see what factors to use for that. The rest are comparable to where the park is IRL.
Octopus Garden by Kev24Fan, (unfinished)