Modern Day Market Size & Owner Spending Values

[PhillieFever]

I was a little un-busy today so I took on the task of editing the modern MLB market sizes and owner spending to get them more in line with reality. I also tested the numbers and they worked well and as intended in the short and long runs. Here you go

[B]Team: Owner Spending/Market Size

Yankees: 10/15
Dodgers: 10/15
Phillies: 8/12
Red Sox: 8/12
------------------
Mets: 7/11
Angels: 7/11
Cubs: 7/10
Rangers: 6/10
Nationals: 6/10
------------------
White Sox: 6/9
Braves: 5/8
Tigers: 8/8
Blue Jays: 6/8
Giants: 7/8
-----------------
Astros: 1/7
Marlins: 1/7
D'Backs: 5/7
Twins: 4/7
Cardinals: 6/7
Rockies: 4/7
-----------------
Indians: 4/6
Pirates: 3/6
Mariners: 4/6
Orioles: 5/5
Reds: 5/5
Padres: 3/5
-----------------
Brewers: 4/4
Rays: 2/3
Athletics: 3/2
Royals: 4/2

[The Game]

Originally Posted by PhillieFever

I was a little un-busy today so I took on the task of editing the modern MLB market sizes and owner spending to get them more in line with reality. I also tested the numbers and they worked well and as intended in the short and long runs. Here you go

Team: Owner Spending/Market Size

Diamondbacks: 5/8
Braves: 5/11
Orioles: 5/6
Red Sox: 8/14
Royals: 4/1
Brewers: 4/4
Mariners: 4/6
Indians: 4/6
Rockies: 4/8
Twins: 4/8
Reds: 5/6
Nationals: 6/12
Cardinals: 6/8
Blue Jays: 6/10
Rangers: 6/12
White Sox: 6/11
Giants: 7/10
Angels: 7/13
Cubs: 7/13
Mets: 7/13
Tigers: 8/11
Phillies 8/14
Yankees: 10/17
Dodgers: 10/15
Pirates: 3/6
Padres: 3/6
Athletics: 3/2
Rays: 2/3
Marlins: 1/8
Astros: 1/9

How did you come up with these #'s? I disgaree partially with the Sox and Cubs. Market size for the Sox is fine but why 11? i never go past 10 in MLB leagues that why I am questioning this. I have mine set at 7/9 and their payroll is decent at 125 mil. No player in my league makes more then 18. Sox have 3 making 10+
For the Cubs I have them at 9/6 They are rebuilding not going after overpriced FA's. Cubs are almost always over 3 million fans while Sox are almost always around 2.5 (might be proven wrong on this just going off of general knowledge as a Chicagoan). I also don't have any market size smaller then a 4 which is PIT, MIL & SD.
More interested how or why you came up with these #'s vs if my #'s are correct or not.
Houston is the 4th largest city, market size should be 7+ while fan interest should be 1.

[Le Grande Orange]

Here's how MLB itself ranks the teams' markets, according to the most recent CBA:

1. New York Yankees
1. New York Mets
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Los Angeles Angels
5. Chicago Cubs
5. Chicago White Sox
7. San Francisco Giants
7. Oakland Athletics
9. Toronto Blue Jays
9. Philadelphia Phillies
9. Boston Red Sox
12. Washington Nationals
13. Atlanta Braves
13. Texas Rangers
15. Houston Astros
16. Seattle Mariners
17. Detroit Tigers
18. Arizona Diamondbacks
19. Minnesota Twins
20. Baltimore Orioles
21. Colorado Rockies
22. San Diego Padres
23. Miami Marlines
24. Tampa Bay Rays
25. Cleveland Indians
26. St. Louis Cardinals
27. Kansas City Royals
28. Cincinnati Reds
28. Pittsburgh Pirates
30. Milwaukee Brewers

MLB's rankings matter because the top 15 markets are disqualified from receiving any revenue sharing (with the exception of Oakland, which is exempt until it gets a new stadium). This restriction is being phased in over four years, and in 2013 any of the top 15 market clubs eligible to receive revenue sharing will only receive 75% of the amount it would otherwise have been eligible to receive.

The method used by MLB to determine market size is unclear. It isn't purely the metropolitan statistical area population, nor is it the Nielsen designated media market size. I suspect it's some combination of area population and local revenue.

[SetonHallPirate]

Check area population of the specific "territorial areas" of the respective teams, on page 204 of http://bizofbaseball.com/docs/MajorLeagueRules-2008.pdf

Just to add, for the portion of Fairfield County you're looking at for the Mets and Yankees, the populations are from the cities/towns of Greenwich, Stamford, Darien, Norwalk, Westport, Fairfield, New Canaan, Wilton, Weston, Easton, Ridgefield, Redding, Danbury, and Bethel.

[PhillieFever]

Originally Posted by The Game

How did you come up with these #'s? I disgaree partially with the Sox and Cubs. Market size for the Sox is fine but why 11? i never go past 10 in MLB leagues that why I am questioning this. I have mine set at 7/9 and their payroll is decent at 125 mil. No player in my league makes more then 18. Sox have 3 making 10+
For the Cubs I have them at 9/6 They are rebuilding not going after overpriced FA's. Cubs are almost always over 3 million fans while Sox are almost always around 2.5 (might be proven wrong on this just going off of general knowledge as a Chicagoan). I also don't have any market size smaller then a 4 which is PIT, MIL & SD.
More interested how or why you came up with these #'s vs if my #'s are correct or not.
Houston is the 4th largest city, market size should be 7+ while fan interest should be 1.

Numbers were created using several articles concerning market size. Owner spending used payrolls mainly from this year. Everyone is surely going to have their own take on this and I knew that going in, this is just mine. If anyone else has some other ideas feel free to post them, I'm all for improvement!

[PhillieFever]

This article in particular I thought was especially well written and thought out and helped by a lot in my determinations. Being as though it was written in 2012, an adjustment for the Dodgers needed to be made. Here's the link:

Power Ranking All 30 MLB Teams by Market Size | Bleacher Report

A few key points:

-The top three(now four) teams are a tier unto themselves

-same goes for the bottom four clubs

- MLB breaks down like this:
9 big market clubs
11 mid market
10 small markets

-The lines of demarcation so to speak, there are market separations between these clubs are pretty large:

Brewers-Padres
Indians-Rockies
Astros-Giants
White Sox-Nationals
Mets-Phillies

With all that in mind, here's the list

30. Royals
29. Athletics
28. Rays
27. Brewers
----------------------
26. Padres
25. Reds
24. Orioles
23. Mariners
22. Pirates
21. Indians
----------------------
20. Rockies
19. Cardinals
18. Twins
17. Diamondbacks
16. Marlins
15. Astros
-----------------------
14. Giants
13. Blue Jays
12. Tigers
11. Braves
10. White Sox
------------------------
9. Nationals
8. Rangers(moving up soon?)
7. Cubs
6. Angels
5. Mets
-------------------------
4. Phillies
3. Red Sox
2. Dodgers(7th on list, not anymore)
1. Yankees

Using the above as a guide I tried to create the market sizes. I do think that they should be a touch tighter, with the Yankees and Dodgers topping out at 15 and the Royals bottoming out at a 2. Any Thoughts?

[PhillieFever]

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

Here's how MLB itself ranks the teams' markets, according to the most recent CBA:

1. New York Yankees
1. New York Mets
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Los Angeles Angels
5. Chicago Cubs
5. Chicago White Sox
7. San Francisco Giants
7. Oakland Athletics
9. Toronto Blue Jays
9. Philadelphia Phillies
9. Boston Red Sox
12. Washington Nationals
13. Atlanta Braves
13. Texas Rangers
15. Houston Astros
16. Seattle Mariners
17. Detroit Tigers
18. Arizona Diamondbacks
19. Minnesota Twins
20. Baltimore Orioles
21. Colorado Rockies
22. San Diego Padres
23. Miami Marlines
24. Tampa Bay Rays
25. Cleveland Indians
26. St. Louis Cardinals
27. Kansas City Royals
28. Cincinnati Reds
28. Pittsburgh Pirates
30. Milwaukee Brewers

MLB's rankings matter because the top 15 markets are disqualified from receiving any revenue sharing (with the exception of Oakland, which is exempt until it gets a new stadium). This restriction is being phased in over four years, and in 2013 any of the top 15 market clubs eligible to receive revenue sharing will only receive 75% of the amount it would otherwise have been eligible to receive.

The method used by MLB to determine market size is unclear. It isn't purely the metropolitan statistical area population, nor is it the Nielsen designated media market size. I suspect it's some combination of area population and local revenue.

This is really interesting stuff LGO, maybe this is the list I should use considering that's what MLB uses, or maybe a combo of the two. BTW, I'm sure attendance is included as well, otherwise Miami would be much higher. What troubles me are clubs like Boston and the Phillies being where they are.

[PhillieFever]

OK, I tightened everything up and now I feel much better about it.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by SetonHallPirate

Check area population of the specific "territorial areas" of the respective teams ...

I remember doing that and it still didn't result in the same ranking of markets.

What's interesting in MLB's rankings are the teams in different cities yet are considered to have equal market sizes: Toronto, Philadelphia, and Boston; Dallas-Fort Worth and Atlanta; Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.

[Aumakua]

So what is the point of this? I mean won't the AI just adjust them all as it sees fit anyways?

In my league I spent a couple hours doing something similar and set all the market sizes, fan loyalty and such to where I wanted them, by the second season they weren't even close to where I had set them...

[PhillieFever]

Originally Posted by Aumakua

So what is the point of this? I mean won't the AI just adjust them all as it sees fit anyways?

In my league I spent a couple hours doing something similar and set all the market sizes, fan loyalty and such to where I wanted them, by the second season they weren't even close to where I had set them...

I simmed through 23 years when testing and I never noticed anything out of the ordinary, sure there was some movement but nothing crazy.