GM Fail or Player Fail?

[legofarley]

Here's the story of Tom Bolton, a popular 2nd basement (i know this should say baseman, but as bad as he was this year I'm leaving it) in my fictional league. This is also my first ever stats only league. Bolton was a 6 year veteran with Columbus when I traded for him last offseason. At the time he was aquired, he had a career BA over .300 with 550+ AB's in 5 of his 6 years in the league. He was well known for hitting over .300/.400/.450 with an average of 10 HR and 70 RBI. He also had routinely put up such player metrics as 50 VORP and 7 WAR. Pretty good pick-up I thought.

So this year he gets 500 AB's and puts out a slash line of .245/.348/.331. He only hit 2 HR although he still produced 62 RBI. His player metric numbers were 5.1 VORP and 0.8 WAR. Not real impressive if you ask me. Especially for a guy pulling in $10MM.

I also thought about the park factors involved. Columbus' factors for AVG and HR are 1.032 and 1.082. The factors for my team's park for AVG and HR are 0.985 and 0.935. Maybe this is the piece of the puzzle I'm missing.

Is this a case of a player slacking off and/or falling on his face? Or, is this a case of mistaken judgement on my part as GM?

[fhomess]

You'll find out next year.

Seriously, I've seen very good players tank for a year and then bounce right back. If there's no injury involved, usually it's not a big deal. Welcome to stats only!

[legofarley]

Bolton asked for a trade, and someone else was willing to pick him up. I don't want a team with a fictional Chone Figgins.

[Tyler87898]

What was his home/away splits?

[legofarley]

His averages were better at home than on the road. Although he did provide more RBI on the road.

[Isryion]

Originally Posted by legofarley

Here's the story of Tom Bolton, a popular 2nd basement (i know this should say baseman, but as bad as he was this year I'm leaving it) in my fictional league. This is also my first ever stats only league. Bolton was a 6 year veteran with Columbus when I traded for him last offseason. At the time he was aquired, he had a career BA over .300 with 550+ AB's in 5 of his 6 years in the league. He was well known for hitting over .300/.400/.450 with an average of 10 HR and 70 RBI. He also had routinely put up such player metrics as 50 VORP and 7 WAR. Pretty good pick-up I thought.

So this year he gets 500 AB's and puts out a slash line of .245/.348/.331. He only hit 2 HR although he still produced 62 RBI. His player metric numbers were 5.1 VORP and 0.8 WAR. Not real impressive if you ask me. Especially for a guy pulling in $10MM.

I also thought about the park factors involved. Columbus' factors for AVG and HR are 1.032 and 1.082. The factors for my team's park for AVG and HR are 0.985 and 0.935. Maybe this is the piece of the puzzle I'm missing.

Is this a case of a player slacking off and/or falling on his face? Or, is this a case of mistaken judgement on my part as GM?

I'd need more information. I think someone already hinted at park factors, but it would be interesting to know his BABIP (or at least exact number of hits, Ks, and ABs to calculate it in the current year and recent years) to determine whether or not he was just unlucky. Also, how old is he?

RBI are going to be team based for him, so assuming his RBI production would be the same is a GM failing, though it sounds like he did drop off in other areas (but only yearly stats could tell if it was gradual or a cliff type faceplant).

[statfreak]

I know you said he was in the majors for 6 years, but how old is/was he?

[legofarley]

Originally Posted by statfreak

I know you said he was in the majors for 6 years, but how old is/was he?

He was 29 when I signed him and his BABIP was below .250.

[Isryion]

Originally Posted by legofarley

He was 29 when I signed him and his BABIP was below .250.

It sounds like a rather unlucky year for him. I'd give it another year, though players can suddenly tank (or get good) depending on your talent change randomness.