Pence to Phillies, Asomugha to Eagles..

[Phillies_WFC_2008]

Title says it all. Great day to be a Philly sports fan.

I must say I think the trade was fair for both sides. Phils didn't have to give up two pieces of the current ML team (Dom Brown and Worley) and Houston got a pretty stout hall for Pence.

Eagles took the top FA away from the Cowboys..


What do you guys think of these moves?

[Biggio509]

I am liking from the Houston side. I am a big Hunter Pence fan but I know we are not winning for a couple of years. I hope he gets a ring with Phillie.

IMO, the Phillies way over paid for Pence though. Maybe the trade market was just tight but the guy is usually around .280 and 25 HRs. The Phils gave up 2 of the top 3 prospects in the org and two other guys. From an OOTP GM's perspective that seems a steep price for an above average hitter who possibly would not be an All Star if the rule requiring each team have a player on the all star team was not in place. Pence may or may not made the all star team this year if the requirement was not there but avg. wise this is a career year for him.

I am ecstatic that the Astros went from 0 top 50 BA prospects to 2 over night. The Phillies got a hot bat and an extra boost for the playoff run and the Astros got the help rebuilding the farm. Wade is doing what he was hired to do. I am just not sure if I was the GM in Phillie I would have made the trade. I personally think they gave up a little too much. Hunter is a great 100% every inning player and we will miss him but he isn't a superstar by any means and the Phillies paid a superstar price, IMO. Maybe I am just a stingy old curmudgeon who likes to hoard prospects.

[Phillies_WFC_2008]

A fair enough assessment. I think the deal works fine. Pence's run production should go up a bit now with Howard and Utley in the lineup. And more importantly hopefully Pence's presence in the lineup helps Howard's production go up a bit (though now he seems to be a bit lost at the plate).

To me, Singleton isn't a huge loss because he was blocked at 1b by Howard and reports seem to indicate that a move to the outfield was not a great option with him, but who knows. So now was a good time to move him. As far as Cosart, he was still a few years away and the Phils are trying to win now.

I think it will be interesting to see how the addition helps the Phillies over the next couple months.

[MadBum]

Huge overpayment by the Phils, and the fact they're sending Brown down to the minor leagues and keeping Ibanez in the line-up almost negates the upgrade that they're making. Seriously what problems do the Phils have with Brown?

Honestly, the Phillies future is already in heavy doubt, and this just pushes it further into doubt. You can only do so much with overpriced players and not using any free ones at the minimum coming out of the farm, unless you're the Yanks. Who knows if Pence can sustain this level of production he's at currently There was one article about his BABIP being at .370 this year and his career being at .300, meaning he's likely to take a hit in production sooner rather than later. A quality player, and certainly a upgrade, but at what price? Phillies are already stacked, and they didn't need to jeopardize their future anymore anywau. It's not like he makes them World Series winners right away, and what pace are they at? 103 or 104 wins? There's only so much you can do to upgrade your odds in the crapshoot of the playoffs.

[Biggio509]

Originally Posted by MadBum

Honestly, the Phillies future is already in heavy doubt, and this just pushes it further into doubt. You can only do so much with overpriced players and not using any free ones at the minimum coming out of the farm, unless you're the Yanks.

I have been saying this for a couple of years now. The Phillies are acting just like Drayton McLane did with Hunsicker and Purpurra. You can't keep trading the farm for the one guy you think will the win world series and not eventually crash your farm system. The Phils have been aggressive in type A and free agents taking away top draft picks. They are still a more midmarket team they can't sustain this payroll and their farm will be dry in a couple of years if they keep trading off top prospects and signing type A free agents.

Astros fans have seen this first hand as the Astros lost picks from type A and B signings over and over again and traded the farm until nothing was left. I cringe to see the Phillies doing exactly what the Astros did last decade having seen the effects of it. Now we have to trade a pretty good but not elite player who could have had more good seasons. More importantly he was just plain fun to watch. He loves the game and it shows. The Astros had to do this because they acted like the Phillies are acting now last decade and there was nothing left to use in trade and no prospects to bring up. So you find guys like Matsui, Hall, and Barmes being signed because the Astros could not sustain 100 million + and there was no decent prospects MLB ready to fill their holes.

[phightin]

I think the Phils did over pay a bit for the trade, but I think it makes sense for both sides. As for questioning that the phillies are "trading their farm away and it will eventually come back and haunt them cause they're a "mid-market" team" is absurd though. Yes the phillies USED to be a mid market team, but if you're from the area you know that these past few years the success they've had has completely transformed to them to a big market team. They sell out almost all, if not a large majority of their games, and have become arguably the most popular sports franchise philly's had over the past 25 years, city and area was hungry for a winner. The added attendance and exposure has resulted in a large influx of cash, hence some of the huge FA signings and contract extensions they've been able to make over the last few years. The phillies know they have 4-5 year window at the most to win something again with what they have , might as well put yourself in a position to do it, and in the meantime they have plenty of money to spend up on free agents yearly. Then in 3-5 years when a lot of the guys are on their way they can start holding onto prospects and rebuild, might take a little longer, but it's gladly worth a few more runs at a WS.

The phillies certainly are not the Yankees or Red Sox, but they are certainly the largest market in the NL right now and by no means are a "mid-market" team anymore.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Biggio509

Now we have to trade a pretty good but not elite player who could have had more good seasons. More importantly he was just plain fun to watch. He loves the game and it shows. The Astros had to do this because they acted like the Phillies are acting now last decade and there was nothing left to use in trade and no prospects to bring up. So you find guys like Matsui, Hall, and Barmes being signed because the Astros could not sustain 100 million + and there was no decent prospects MLB ready to fill their holes.

This a great point. I don't like the trade, but I agree with your analysis. I think the Astros received good value, so that's not my problem with the deal. It is indeed exciting to finally have players in the BA50. I don't want to argue with you because you make a great case for the deal and almost convinced me.

But somebody needs to teach the kids how the game is played. The manager and coaches can't always do that. You won't find a better example of how to go about your business than Hunter Pence. He is consistent, plays hard on every play, focuses on the team first, and keeps his nose clean. He is a tough, hard-nosed player and a class act. We will miss his leadership in a young clubhouse. But I guess the kids still have Carlos Lee and Brett Myers to emulate.

Pence could have been signed for $50 million over four years (my estimate so feel free to argue). If the Astros can't afford that, then why get excited about the future? Yes, we will have good prospects in the system, but they will always have their best years elsewhere.

[Biggio509]

Originally Posted by phightin

Yes the phillies USED to be a mid market team, but if you're from the area you know that these past few years the success they've had has completely transformed to them to a big market team. They sell out almost all, if not a large majority of their games, and have become arguably the most popular sports franchise philly's had over the past 25 years, city and area was hungry for a winner.

That is what we Astros fans thought in 2006. It did not last long.

[Biggio509]

Originally Posted by Orcin

This a great point. I don't like the trade, but I agree with your analysis. I think the Astros received good value, so that's not my problem with the deal. It is indeed exciting to finally have players in the BA50. I don't want to argue with you because you make a great case for the deal and almost convinced me.

But somebody needs to teach the kids how the game is played. The manager and coaches can't always do that. You won't find a better example of how to go about your business than Hunter Pence. He is consistent, plays hard on every play, focuses on the team first, and keeps his nose clean. He is a tough, hard-nosed player and a class act. We will miss his leadership in a young clubhouse. But I guess the kids still have Carlos Lee and Brett Myers to emulate.

Pence could have been signed for $50 million over four years (my estimate so feel free to argue). If the Astros can't afford that, then why get excited about the future? Yes, we will have good prospects in the system, but they will always have their best years elsewhere.

From a strict GM view that this is a team that is building for the future makes the case for me. Paying Hunter Pence 12 to 13 million over 4 years so the team can lose 90 next year and maybe the year just really doesn't make sense. It is like the GM said in the early 90's said we are not paying that much just to have a 89 loss team.

However, I feel you. No one other than maybe Biggio has had the love of the game and given that kind of effort every game for the Astros. I am not sure if Pence can teach that but it does sometimes rub off on team mates. I hate the fact we will only see Pence in about 6 games next year and the opposition has the spark plug player that loves the game if the team wins or loses. I will miss seeing the guy play. I could deal with Berkman and his I am here and getting paycheck attitude going. I still say that after seeing how the Astros not even talking to Berkman lit a fire under him. Pence leaving does sadden me a little even if it is the best thing for the team in the long run.

[Phillies_WFC_2008]

Originally Posted by MadBum

Huge overpayment by the Phils, and the fact they're sending Brown down to the minor leagues and keeping Ibanez in the line-up almost negates the upgrade that they're making. Seriously what problems do the Phils have with Brown?

Honestly, the Phillies future is already in heavy doubt, and this just pushes it further into doubt. You can only do so much with overpriced players and not using any free ones at the minimum coming out of the farm, unless you're the Yanks. Who knows if Pence can sustain this level of production he's at currently There was one article about his BABIP being at .370 this year and his career being at .300, meaning he's likely to take a hit in production sooner rather than later. A quality player, and certainly a upgrade, but at what price? Phillies are already stacked, and they didn't need to jeopardize their future anymore anywau. It's not like he makes them World Series winners right away, and what pace are they at? 103 or 104 wins? There's only so much you can do to upgrade your odds in the crapshoot of the playoffs.

I think the move was made to balance out the lineup. The Phils haven't had a true number 5 hitter all season long. Ibanez is strugglng, and Victorino, who has been batting 5 lately isn't a true 5 hole hitter. So even a drop off in production would still be a help for the Phillies. And a righty to balance out the Left-Left-Left situation of Utley, Howard, Ibanez definitely makes the lineup more potent (hopefully). And if anything, Pence will hopefully inject some life and attitude into this lineup. As you probably saw this past series with the Giants, they looked completely lifeless. (Granted, the Giants didn't face Halladay or Lee)


As far as the farm system is concerned I do think it was maybe a slight overpayment but to me it doesn't matter. The fans and organization want to win now. Plus, the Phillies system is stacked in pitching, so they dealt from a surplus to help the ML roster now. And as I mentioned Singleton was blocked at 1b by Ryan Howard so he was an excess that could be moved.

And by keeping Brown up the Phillies bench would then have 2 lefties (Brown/Ibanez and Gload), so I understand the move. I personally would rather see Brown up there over Francisco but I understand the motivation in the move.

[PhillieFever]

Originally Posted by Phillies_WFC_2008

Title says it all. Great day to be a Philly sports fan.

I must say I think the trade was fair for both sides. Phils didn't have to give up two pieces of the current ML team (Dom Brown and Worley) and Houston got a pretty stout hall for Pence.

Eagles took the top FA away from the Cowboys..


What do you guys think of these moves?

Nice! Phils are now without a doubt the overwhelming favorite in the NL, and the Eagles should look great until Reid forgets about running the ball in the playoffs and they lose again.

[Phillies_WFC_2008]

Originally Posted by PhillieFever

Nice! Phils are now without a doubt the overwhelming favorite in the NL, and the Eagles should look great until Reid forgets about running the ball in the playoffs and they lose again.

I am being cautiously optimistic with the Phillies though. I do think they have a much better shot now then before.

And yes, hopefully Reid realizes the weapon he has in Shady McCoy. I do think they will make a play for a LB, possibly in a trade involving Samuel, and then the defense should be pretty good.

[Orcin]

It's definitely a good time to be a sports fan in Philadelphia. It should be a great fall season there.

[damientheomen3]

I just don't see why Nnamdi would pick Philly when he could have gone to a team like the Texans or Ravens and been more of an upgrade for them. I'm still not fully confident that signing Asomugha makes the Eagles a super bowl contender, but we'll see.

[phightin]

As for the whole argument people have been throwing around lately of how valuable prospects are, in real life, not ootp, the majority of the time when a handful of prospects are involved in these trades they usually do not live up to their potential. Let's examine some of the phillies major roster moves and how the current prospects they gave up are currently faring. Granted it's still early but for instance:

1. Brad Lidge aquired via trade for Michael Bourne and Geoff Geary: Bourne has probably been the best player the phillies have given away. He's been a good player for the astros during his time there and is currently having a career year. Geary on the other hand had a great 08 season out of the bullpen and then flamed out his 09 season with an 8+ era. Currently Geary is pitching for the York Revolution in A ball. Lidge on the other hand has had his issues here with injuries and has done extremely well and bad at times, but overall he had one of the best seasons a closer has had in the modern era of baseball in 08 being a huge reason they went on to win the world series. A good MLB player and minor league pitcher for a World Series so obviously well worth it.

2. Joe Blanton aquried via trade for Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman, and Matt Spencer. Cardenas a 2B is still currently in the minors for the athletics but is doing quite well so the jury is still out. He's been in the minors for 6 seasons though. Still though he would have been blocked by chase utley. Outman a pitcher has had 3 seasons with the Athletics and has done well in 09 as a starter, inujured in 10, and has done very well for them out of the bullpen this year with a 3.47 era in 46 innings. Spencer is currently in AA with the Cubs hitting 2.67 with 13 homers. Blanton has been a very serviceable during his time with philly and again was a key addition to them winning the WS in 08. He's had his issues with performance and injuries over the past couple of seasons but a world series for a good minor league 2B in AAA, a good MLB reliever, and an average minor leaguer is well worth it.

3. Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco aquired via trade for Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, and Jason Knapp. Carasco had a good year last season with the Indians with a 3.83 era in 7 starts. He has been decent this year with a 4.67 era. He's only 24 so it's still too early to tell, I would suprised if he gets as close to as good as Lee. Probably a future #3 guy if he reaches his peak. Jason Donald hit 2.57 with 4 homers in his rookie season last year and is back in the minors this year. Approaching 27 and doesn't look like he will ever be a serviceable MLB player unless he's a late bloomer. Lou Marson has struggled hitting for the Indians in 3 seasons in the majors with them. Probably a backup MLB catcher, not worthy of being included for a player like Lee. Knapp is still in the Indians minor league system and is only 21 but has struggled with injuries so far and hasn't played much over the past couple of seasons. These four prospects were basically wasted because they then stupidly traded Lee only to resign him a year later. But until one of them lights the world on fire it hasn't come back to really haunt the phillies.

4. Roy Halladay aquired via trade for Travis D'Arnaud, Kyle Drabek, and Michael Taylor. D'Arnaud is in AA in the Blue Jays system right now and is doing well so we'll see. Drabek who was supposed to be a future Cy Young cotender has struggled so far in his first full MLB season with a 5+ era. He still is only around 23 so we'll see. Michael Taylor still in Oaklands minor league system doing well in AAA.

[Jason Moyer]

I'm not going to say they overpaid for Hunter Pence, but he's not as good as people think he is either. He'll fit in great in Philly, though, with his terrible glove and the extra boost to his stats that CBP will offer. He's a huge upgrade over Ibanez anyway, who surely they'll relea...wait, what.

[Biggio509]

Originally Posted by phightin

As for the whole argument people have been throwing around lately of how valuable prospects are, in real life, not ootp, the majority of the time when a handful of prospects are involved in these trades they usually do not live up to their potential.

I think Philies' issue here is not so much whether the prospects work out as much as it is the alarming rate that prospects are flowing out of your minors. Look at how many real prospects have left due to trades. The issue for Phillie specifically is how long can you have a win now attitude and deplete the farm system at this rate before there is nothing left in the cupboard. The Astros killed their farm trying to win now with trades and type A and B free agents. I think Phillie is danger of doing the same thing. It took about a decade until complete collapse with the Astros but it happened.

[PhillieFever]

Prospects are just that, prospects. most times they don't pan out so losing them really doesn't bother me, especially with the position the Phillies are in now. A championship or two in the next few years will make everyone forget all about Singleton and Cosart, if they know who they are in the first place. I applaud the Phillies for going for it now, the stinkin' Eagles should take a page out of the Phillies book and go all out. Unfortunately though the Eagles brass is happy with the status quo, making the playoffs and then getting knocked out. If they weren't fat Andy would be gone by now.....sigh. 51 years and counting.....

[Phillies_WFC_2008]

Originally Posted by PhillieFever

Prospects are just that, prospects. most times they don't pan out so losing them really doesn't bother me, especially with the position the Phillies are in now. A championship or two in the next few years will make everyone forget all about Singleton and Cosart, if they know who they are in the first place. I applaud the Phillies for going for it now, the stinkin' Eagles should take a page out of the Phillies book and go all out. Unfortunately though the Eagles brass is happy with the status quo, making the playoffs and then getting knocked out. If they weren't fat Andy would be gone by now.....sigh. 51 years and counting.....

Well it appears they Eagles are taking a step in the right direction...finally.

[MadBum]

Originally Posted by Biggio509

I think Philies' issue here is not so much whether the prospects work out as much as it is the alarming rate that prospects are flowing out of your minors. Look at how many real prospects have left due to trades. The issue for Phillie specifically is how long can you have a win now attitude and deplete the farm system at this rate before there is nothing left in the cupboard. The Astros killed their farm trying to win now with trades and type A and B free agents. I think Phillie is danger of doing the same thing. It took about a decade until complete collapse with the Astros but it happened.

This is the point I was trying to make. Their farm system already had a dearth of talent, and with these trades the cupboard is bare. There's also problems with how they handle their little young talent; what the hell are they doing with Brown? Do they not realize how bad Ibanez is? You put your best players on the field, handedness is when there's that much separation between two players.

As for the overwhelming favorite in the NL, I don't think you can say that when the reigning champ just took 2 out of 3 in your yard

I should say that I absolutely love Pence, and am sad that he plays for our biggest rival (in terms of NL competition) now. Wish he was spending his days in Houston or in the AL. Also, the Desastros just keeping getting worse on the ML level; it's sad. That should be a cautionary tale for the Phils; you guys are looking great right now, but you have a core that's aging quickly and the Ryan Howard contract is a terrible one. This quote kinda sums up my thoughts, although I disagree with some:

This makes the Phillies a little better now, but only because they needed a right-handed hitter. Pence isn’t any better than Brown unless he goes on a tear; his walks are at his career level, but his strikeouts are up (second lowest BB/K of his career), his power is down, and this is the first year UZR doesn’t like his defense (doesn’t mean anything, but hey). He’s riding a .368 BABIP which is his highest since his rookie year (but that year he had a .217 ISO compared to this season’s .163). Pence doesn’t look like he’s really playing all that well, and now he has to stop facing the mediocre NL Central and gets thrown into the much more difficult NL East. CBP isn’t more of a bandbox than Houston, so I doubt he gets much of a boost there. The Astros did well here because Pence is not as good as people think.