Evaluating Pitchers - Stats

DanP68 · 02-03-2012, 05:43 PM

With regard to pitchers with enough MLB experience to have a reliable statistical history, what stats do you weigh most?

The reason I ask is because we all know Scouting is always imperfect, and sometimes is way off. I've noticed that K% (K's divided by Batters Faced) and BB% are very good indicators of opponent's wOBA.

As much as I like like the combo of K% and BB%, it still lacks an understanding of how hard a pitcher gets hit. Essentially, the Movement rating. I don't like using HR/9 or HR per Fly Ball because both are too volatile to consider reliable. Just a few unlucky HR's can throw the indicator off.

I am currently using FIP as my third indicator. Anybody have favorite pet stats to evaluate their pitchers by?

Curve Ball Dave · 02-03-2012, 06:44 PM

If a pitcher has a few season at the MLB level the only thing that matters is whether or not he gets batters out and wins games. Nothing else matters. I stop looking at the ratings.

My current league is made up players from the past present which how I like to do it. Ken Hill (in real life he pitched for the Cardinals and Expos) is a 4 star highly rated pitcher and was in my rotation this past season. He finished 7-16. I had to pull him from the rotation and put him relief because the team lost pretty much every time he pitched. The team lost high scoring games, low scoring games, and every other type of game in between. If the team scored 9 runs he gave up 10. If the team scored 1 run he gave up 2. I could look at all kinds of different stats but at the end of the day the team lost pretty much whenever he started on the mound. Ken Hill was bad.

On the other hand, I was fortunate enough to sign young Justin Verlander as a free agent after I imported him two seasons ago. He started 30 games and went 20-2. The team won pretty much every time he pitched. Verlander was good.

The only evaluation is whether or not the team wins when a guy pitches. If we win most of the time, he's good. If we lose, he's bad.

Thelkin · 02-03-2012, 11:37 PM

Currently I am using both FIP & WHIP as indicators of the pitcher himself. Regardless of star rating if both of them are reasonably low compared to league averages they usually result in a winning season.

Sometimes only 2/3 out of my opening day lineup perform really well and I find my 5th & 6th guys step up and throw really well. (Still in the 40s with a 4 man rotation). Unfortunately they only throw well for a year or so and back to relief they go... But thems the breaks.

02-03-2012, 05:43 PM	#1
DanP68 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 151	Evaluating Pitchers - Stats With regard to pitchers with enough MLB experience to have a reliable statistical history, what stats do you weigh most? The reason I ask is because we all know Scouting is always imperfect, and sometimes is way off. I've noticed that K% (K's divided by Batters Faced) and BB% are very good indicators of opponent's wOBA. As much as I like like the combo of K% and BB%, it still lacks an understanding of how hard a pitcher gets hit. Essentially, the Movement rating. I don't like using HR/9 or HR per Fly Ball because both are too volatile to consider reliable. Just a few unlucky HR's can throw the indicator off. I am currently using FIP as my third indicator. Anybody have favorite pet stats to evaluate their pitchers by?

02-03-2012, 06:44 PM	#2
Curve Ball Dave Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Chicago Posts: 2,393	If a pitcher has a few season at the MLB level the only thing that matters is whether or not he gets batters out and wins games. Nothing else matters. I stop looking at the ratings. My current league is made up players from the past present which how I like to do it. Ken Hill (in real life he pitched for the Cardinals and Expos) is a 4 star highly rated pitcher and was in my rotation this past season. He finished 7-16. I had to pull him from the rotation and put him relief because the team lost pretty much every time he pitched. The team lost high scoring games, low scoring games, and every other type of game in between. If the team scored 9 runs he gave up 10. If the team scored 1 run he gave up 2. I could look at all kinds of different stats but at the end of the day the team lost pretty much whenever he started on the mound. Ken Hill was bad. On the other hand, I was fortunate enough to sign young Justin Verlander as a free agent after I imported him two seasons ago. He started 30 games and went 20-2. The team won pretty much every time he pitched. Verlander was good. The only evaluation is whether or not the team wins when a guy pitches. If we win most of the time, he's good. If we lose, he's bad. __________________ "Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.

02-03-2012, 11:37 PM	#3
Thelkin Minors (Single A) Join Date: Nov 2011 Location: Sydney, Australia Posts: 78	Currently I am using both FIP & WHIP as indicators of the pitcher himself. Regardless of star rating if both of them are reasonably low compared to league averages they usually result in a winning season. Sometimes only 2/3 out of my opening day lineup perform really well and I find my 5th & 6th guys step up and throw really well. (Still in the 40s with a 4 man rotation). Unfortunately they only throw well for a year or so and back to relief they go... But thems the breaks.