The favorite in the NL EAST?

blubbla · 12-20-2002, 06:40 PM

OK guys, with all the moves to remake the teams in the NL East, who do you consider as the favorite to win the division now?

LivnLegend · 12-20-2002, 06:54 PM

The Mets will once again get punked by the Braves.
Same thing, different year!

twins15 · 12-20-2002, 08:38 PM

I was going to say Mets, but after I saw the Phillies get Millwood for almost nothing (Johnny Estrada), I say that the Phillies will win the NL East.

fantom1979 · 12-21-2002, 12:35 AM

Thats a good job by the Braves, way to send a pretty good pitcher to a division rival for nothing. Great Move.

fantom1979 · 12-21-2002, 02:20 AM

I thought this was pretty funny, from ESPN.com

"With Kevin's arbitration number projected to be $10 million this season and with Greg Maddux accepting arbitration we were $15 million over budget," Schuerholz told ESPN. "The economics in baseball stink. The economics stink, and if this isn't a clear enough signal to the doubters and naysayers, to be forced to trade an 18-game winner to your arch enemy ... The economics stink."

Even so, some might question why the Braves would trade Millwood to a team within their own division.

"I tried. No one was willing to take the $10 million this season," Schuerholz told Ravech. "Only one team (wanted to), and it was the team he was ultimately traded to. As late as 15 minutes before the deal was finalized, I was on the phone and not one team was willing to move."

http://espn.go.com/mlb/news/2002/1220/1480130.html

Jason Moyer · 12-21-2002, 02:42 AM

I should probably start an entirely new thread for this, but since it's related, has anyone anywhere found win shares for 2002 online? I would like to start working on some divisional predictions and that would be a key piece of data to start from.

Jason

edm · 12-21-2002, 02:44 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by fantom1979
I thought this was pretty funny, from ESPN.com

"With Kevin's arbitration number projected to be $10 million this season and with Greg Maddux accepting arbitration we were $15 million over budget," Schuerholz told ESPN. "The economics in baseball stink. The economics stink, and if this isn't a clear enough signal to the doubters and naysayers, to be forced to trade an 18-game winner to your arch enemy ... The economics stink."

Even so, some might question why the Braves would trade Millwood to a team within their own division.

"I tried. No one was willing to take the $10 million this season," Schuerholz told Ravech. "Only one team (wanted to), and it was the team he was ultimately traded to. As late as 15 minutes before the deal was finalized, I was on the phone and not one team was willing to move."

http://espn.go.com/mlb/news/2002/1220/1480130.html

Awwww, poor Braves..

Instead of crying, maybe he should've planned ahead a little, rather then throwing their money at pitchers like Paul byrd and Russ Ortiz. And maybe he sould have planned for the possibility of Maddux accepting arbitration, instead of acting like a deer in headlights when he did.

And if he really, truly had no other teams willing to trade for Millwood now, he could've 1) waited. why did he have to make the deal now? maybe 2 or 3 weeks down the line someone would've made better offer. 2) just cut him, rather then send him to a division opponent for a backup catcher. at least then there's a chance he signs out of the division.

oh well, I'm a Phils fan so I'm happy

AngelinOF · 12-21-2002, 03:16 AM

Right now I would have to go with the Phillies, but alot can happen between now and even the start of spring training.

The Mets still have a few holes in their pitching staff and I don't really see Glavine making that much of a difference. With the signing of Floyd they may have a potent line-up but they were also suppose to have one last season.

The Braves have some huge holes on the offensive side and the bullpen. They owe Castilla & Lopez 12 million dollars so they really have no one to blame but themselves for their economic situation. I'm guessing that AOL/TW was probably pressing the Braves to get their payroll in order so they could place it in their quarterly report (aren't those probably due in December?) They probably fainted if they saw the Braves 15 million dollars over budget.

The Expos also could probably be contenders depending on who they end up trading off and what they end up getting in return.

Long_Long_Name · 12-21-2002, 01:38 PM

I wasn't the one who voted for the Expos (I picked Philly), but don't underestimate these guys... if they manage to keep most of their core they could be dangerous.

blubbla · 12-22-2002, 07:13 PM

At least nobody's been dumb enough to think the Marlins are the best of the East ... The Expos deserve at least a little consideration.

Jason Moyer · 12-23-2002, 06:41 AM

Ok, not going to try predicting standings yet, but I'll throw in some Phillies predictions for this year:

Random ridiculous prediction #1 for 2003:

Brandon Duckworth will win 15+ games with a 3.5-ish ERA.

Reason for prediction: Despite posting a robust 9.22 K/9 last year and a so-so 3.81 BB/9, opponents pounded him for a .564 Avg on BIP last year. That sort of stat is probably beyond luck, but I have a hard time believing it.

Random ridiculous prediction #2:

Brett Myers will be pitching in Reading by mid-July.

Reason for prediction: Name 1 pitcher in the modern era who has struck out fewer than 4.5 per 9 in their rookie year and had any sort of career.

Random ridiculous prediction #3:

Despite being as valuable as Vladimir Guerrero, Bobby Abreu will be sitting at home during the All-Star game.

Reason for prediction: Doesn't this happen every year?

Jason

holyroller · 12-23-2002, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Jason Moyer
Random ridiculous prediction #2:

Brett Myers will be pitching in Reading by mid-July.

Reason for prediction: Name 1 pitcher in the modern era who has struck out fewer than 4.5 per 9 in their rookie year and had any sort of career.

Tom Glavine
1988: 3.85 K/9

GForce22 · 12-23-2002, 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Jason Moyer

Random ridiculous prediction #2:

Brett Myers will be pitching in Reading by mid-July.

Reason for prediction: Name 1 pitcher in the modern era who has struck out fewer than 4.5 per 9 in their rookie year and had any sort of career.

Bret Saberhagen 1984: 4.17K/9 IP

GH

Old Man · 12-23-2002, 03:07 PM

Ah geez now you named 2 pitchers in the modern era. He only asked for one.

Jason Moyer · 12-23-2002, 05:03 PM

Oof, smackdown.

Ok, let me add a qualifier - Myers will be pitching in Reading by July if his K/9 is still barely cracking 4 per game.

Jason

crackpott · 12-23-2002, 06:29 PM

I'm still scratching my head on how Abreu is as valuable as Vlad...

holyroller · 12-23-2002, 07:02 PM

Abreu, 2002

.308/.413/.521 with 31/43 SB's

Vlad, 2002

.336/.417/.593 with 40/60 SB's

Both have outstanding range and strong arms. Quick and dirty sumation, Abreu is great but not even close to as valuable.

Jason Moyer · 12-23-2002, 07:09 PM

I'm talking in terms of contributing wins to their teams.

They've been putting up pretty dead equal seasons since 98, with Vlad having a slight edge in 98/99/00 and Abreu in 01. This year thy just happen to have tied somehow. I suspect Vlad's 29 win shares are closer to 29.4 while Abreu's are closer to 28.5, but I've only seen them figured out to integers. Fractions of a win share are pretty meaningless anyway (as are differences of less than 3, which would put Abreu/Vlad into a tie every year they've played together).

I'm almost certain Vlad has earned more hitting win shares and Abreu more fielding win shares, which also would contribute to the "huh?" factor. Still, they've both put up 4 straight seasons of what would be considered "all star quality" altho I have a hunch Vlad will be cracking the 30-40 win share barrier soon while Abreu should decline. If I had to pick a player I'd want on my team 4 years from now I'd probably go with Vlad over anyone.

Edit: Considering the huge disparity in OPS, I'd like to see the breakdown for their WS each year. Abreu had a 155 OPS+ and Vlad a 162 if you figure in park effects. Vlad created 151 runs with 453 outs while Abreu created 123 runs with 425 outs so it can't be some hidden small hitting stat like GDP, for isntance. Abreu had a slight edge in fielding percentage but their raw range factors (not adjusted for team performance, of course) are both below average for a right fielder in 2002. Both the Expos and Phillies finished within a game of their expected win/loss record, so it's not like each run that Abreu created was worth more. This is really odd and I'd like to see the breakdown.

Other players with 29 win shares this year - Manny Ramirez, Jim Edmonds, Jeff Kent, Randy Johnson (that's a ton for a modern pitcher), and Jose Vidro.

Jason

Batter UP · 12-23-2002, 08:50 PM

I'll take the Phillies. The Mets will find a way to lose and the Braves, well I can see 11 straight, but 12 division titles in a row just seems like a stretch

Axe Hippo · 12-23-2002, 09:36 PM

Although the Braves have fallen flat on their faces this off-season, I still think they're far enough ahead of the other teams to pull away down the stretch. Their dynasty with Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz, great lineup, etc. is over, however. This year could be the last.

View Poll Results: Who's the favorite in the NL East?
Atlanta Braves	14	28.57%
Florida Marlins	1	2.04%
Montreal Expos	2	4.08%
New York Mets	6	12.24%
Philadelphia Phillies	26	53.06%
Voters: 49. You may not vote on this poll

12-21-2002, 12:35 AM	#4
fantom1979 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Detroit, MI Posts: 3,498	Thats a good job by the Braves, way to send a pretty good pitcher to a division rival for nothing. Great Move. __________________

12-21-2002, 02:20 AM	#5
fantom1979 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Detroit, MI Posts: 3,498	I thought this was pretty funny, from ESPN.com "With Kevin's arbitration number projected to be $10 million this season and with Greg Maddux accepting arbitration we were $15 million over budget," Schuerholz told ESPN. "The economics in baseball stink. The economics stink, and if this isn't a clear enough signal to the doubters and naysayers, to be forced to trade an 18-game winner to your arch enemy ... The economics stink." Even so, some might question why the Braves would trade Millwood to a team within their own division. "I tried. No one was willing to take the $10 million this season," Schuerholz told Ravech. "Only one team (wanted to), and it was the team he was ultimately traded to. As late as 15 minutes before the deal was finalized, I was on the phone and not one team was willing to move." http://espn.go.com/mlb/news/2002/1220/1480130.html __________________

12-21-2002, 02:42 AM	#6
Jason Moyer Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 5,106	I should probably start an entirely new thread for this, but since it's related, has anyone anywhere found win shares for 2002 online? I would like to start working on some divisional predictions and that would be a key piece of data to start from. Jason __________________ "I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech

12-21-2002, 01:38 PM	#9
Long_Long_Name Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Montréal Posts: 7,065	I wasn't the one who voted for the Expos (I picked Philly), but don't underestimate these guys... if they manage to keep most of their core they could be dangerous. __________________ Beta Baseball. Join it!

12-20-2002, 06:40 PM	#1
blubbla Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Herscher, IL Posts: 2,458	The favorite in the NL EAST? OK guys, with all the moves to remake the teams in the NL East, who do you consider as the favorite to win the division now?

12-20-2002, 06:54 PM	#2
LivnLegend Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: 100% pure adrenaline! Posts: 5,624	The Mets will once again get punked by the Braves. Same thing, different year! __________________ Excess ain't rebellion. You're drinking what they're selling.

12-20-2002, 08:38 PM	#3
twins15 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Area 51 Posts: 4,792	I was going to say Mets, but after I saw the Phillies get Millwood for almost nothing (Johnny Estrada), I say that the Phillies will win the NL East. __________________ "Ah man we're just hungry man" - Dovonte Edwards Bismarck Boy Scouts of the OTBL - league yes-man Ross Gload at baseball-reference.com Book Quotes and Book Lists

12-21-2002, 03:16 AM	#8
AngelinOF All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Kentucky Posts: 1,353	Right now I would have to go with the Phillies, but alot can happen between now and even the start of spring training. The Mets still have a few holes in their pitching staff and I don't really see Glavine making that much of a difference. With the signing of Floyd they may have a potent line-up but they were also suppose to have one last season. The Braves have some huge holes on the offensive side and the bullpen. They owe Castilla & Lopez 12 million dollars so they really have no one to blame but themselves for their economic situation. I'm guessing that AOL/TW was probably pressing the Braves to get their payroll in order so they could place it in their quarterly report (aren't those probably due in December?) They probably fainted if they saw the Braves 15 million dollars over budget. The Expos also could probably be contenders depending on who they end up trading off and what they end up getting in return.

12-22-2002, 07:13 PM	#10
blubbla Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Herscher, IL Posts: 2,458	At least nobody's been dumb enough to think the Marlins are the best of the East ... The Expos deserve at least a little consideration.

12-23-2002, 06:41 AM	#11
Jason Moyer Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 5,106	Ok, not going to try predicting standings yet, but I'll throw in some Phillies predictions for this year: Random ridiculous prediction #1 for 2003: Brandon Duckworth will win 15+ games with a 3.5-ish ERA. Reason for prediction: Despite posting a robust 9.22 K/9 last year and a so-so 3.81 BB/9, opponents pounded him for a .564 Avg on BIP last year. That sort of stat is probably beyond luck, but I have a hard time believing it. Random ridiculous prediction #2: Brett Myers will be pitching in Reading by mid-July. Reason for prediction: Name 1 pitcher in the modern era who has struck out fewer than 4.5 per 9 in their rookie year and had any sort of career. Random ridiculous prediction #3: Despite being as valuable as Vladimir Guerrero, Bobby Abreu will be sitting at home during the All-Star game. Reason for prediction: Doesn't this happen every year? Jason __________________ "I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech

12-23-2002, 03:07 PM	#14
Old Man Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 464	Ah geez now you named 2 pitchers in the modern era. He only asked for one. __________________ Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything. ~Toby Harrah, 1983 "All the fat guys watch me and say to their wives, 'See, there's a fat guy doing okay. Bring me another beer.'" -Mickey Lolich

12-23-2002, 05:03 PM	#15
Jason Moyer Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 5,106	Oof, smackdown. Ok, let me add a qualifier - Myers will be pitching in Reading by July if his K/9 is still barely cracking 4 per game. Jason __________________ "I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech

12-23-2002, 06:29 PM	#16
crackpott Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Toronto Posts: 2,961	I'm still scratching my head on how Abreu is as valuable as Vlad... __________________ Abandoned Planet - Check it out. The photos don't suck anymore.

12-23-2002, 07:02 PM	#17
holyroller Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: OTBL Forums Posts: 3,532	Abreu, 2002 .308/.413/.521 with 31/43 SB's Vlad, 2002 .336/.417/.593 with 40/60 SB's Both have outstanding range and strong arms. Quick and dirty sumation, Abreu is great but not even close to as valuable. __________________ Back to work, but not drawing a paycheck. TonyJ et. al.'s alias “I confused it with the chicken’s neck,” Mocanu, who was admitted to the emergency hospital in Galati, was quoted as saying. “I cut it ... and the dog rushed and ate it.”

12-23-2002, 07:09 PM	#18
Jason Moyer Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 5,106	I'm talking in terms of contributing wins to their teams. They've been putting up pretty dead equal seasons since 98, with Vlad having a slight edge in 98/99/00 and Abreu in 01. This year thy just happen to have tied somehow. I suspect Vlad's 29 win shares are closer to 29.4 while Abreu's are closer to 28.5, but I've only seen them figured out to integers. Fractions of a win share are pretty meaningless anyway (as are differences of less than 3, which would put Abreu/Vlad into a tie every year they've played together). I'm almost certain Vlad has earned more hitting win shares and Abreu more fielding win shares, which also would contribute to the "huh?" factor. Still, they've both put up 4 straight seasons of what would be considered "all star quality" altho I have a hunch Vlad will be cracking the 30-40 win share barrier soon while Abreu should decline. If I had to pick a player I'd want on my team 4 years from now I'd probably go with Vlad over anyone. Edit: Considering the huge disparity in OPS, I'd like to see the breakdown for their WS each year. Abreu had a 155 OPS+ and Vlad a 162 if you figure in park effects. Vlad created 151 runs with 453 outs while Abreu created 123 runs with 425 outs so it can't be some hidden small hitting stat like GDP, for isntance. Abreu had a slight edge in fielding percentage but their raw range factors (not adjusted for team performance, of course) are both below average for a right fielder in 2002. Both the Expos and Phillies finished within a game of their expected win/loss record, so it's not like each run that Abreu created was worth more. This is really odd and I'd like to see the breakdown. Other players with 29 win shares this year - Manny Ramirez, Jim Edmonds, Jeff Kent, Randy Johnson (that's a ton for a modern pitcher), and Jose Vidro. Jason __________________ "I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech Last edited by Jason Moyer; 12-23-2002 at 07:20 PM.

12-23-2002, 08:50 PM	#19
Batter UP Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 102	I'll take the Phillies. The Mets will find a way to lose and the Braves, well I can see 11 straight, but 12 division titles in a row just seems like a stretch

12-23-2002, 09:36 PM	#20
Axe Hippo Bat Boy Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Indiana Posts: 3	Although the Braves have fallen flat on their faces this off-season, I still think they're far enough ahead of the other teams to pull away down the stretch. Their dynasty with Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz, great lineup, etc. is over, however. This year could be the last. __________________ Axe Hippo