100-year RonCo/SkyDog Sim

[gordyhulten]

I created a new 24-team fictional league last night, changed the settings to the last ones recommended by RonCo and SkyDog for OOTP9, and ran a 100-year sim overnight.

HTML report/and history is here.

My objective with the stats is to get 1980s-type offensive numbers, with realistic-looking player development, careers and transactions. Once I get that settled, I want to play around with the financials to see if I can create a moderately unbalaced financial strata, with some large market teams and some small market teams, and see how they perform over 100 years.

My initial thoughts looking quickly at this:

• There seem to be more dominant pitching seasons than dominant hitting seasons. 26 SPs had seasons with ERAs under 2.00, and ten had career ERAs under 2.50.
• The career pitching leader in VORP is higher than the career batting leader in VORP, which seems off, although the career pitching leader is a 20% outlier.
• At first glance, HRs look good season-wise, but low career wise. Only five players with 450+ HR, with the career record at 525.

I have injuries set on "Normal (OOTP Classic)" and I wonder if that's impacting hitters more than pitchers?

Take a look and let me know what you think.

[Malleus Dei]

Might I suggest trying it again with injuries set on low, just to see what the effect is?

[gordyhulten]

Originally Posted by Malleus Dei

Might I suggest trying it again with injuries set on low, just to see what the effect is?

I will. Wanted to post for feedback for a few hours to see if there are any other thoughts about things to tweak.

[Raidergoo]

Set the injuries to the normal setting and see what happens, too.

[Malleus Dei]

Originally Posted by gordyhulten

I will. Wanted to post for feedback for a few hours to see if there are any other thoughts about things to tweak.

I can't wait to see what the difference is.

[jar2574]

Originally Posted by gordyhulten

I created a new 24-team fictional league last night, changed the settings to the last ones recommended by RonCo and SkyDog for OOTP9, and ran a 100-year sim overnight.

HTML report/and history is here.

My objective with the stats is to get 1980s-type offensive numbers, with realistic-looking player development, careers and transactions. Once I get that settled, I want to play around with the financials to see if I can create a moderately unbalaced financial strata, with some large market teams and some small market teams, and see how they perform over 100 years.


My initial thoughts looking quickly at this:

• There seem to be more dominant pitching seasons than dominant hitting seasons. 26 SPs had seasons with ERAs under 2.00, and ten had career ERAs under 2.50.
• The career pitching leader in VORP is higher than the career batting leader in VORP, which seems off, although the career pitching leader is a 20% outlier.
• At first glance, HRs look good season-wise, but low career wise. Only five players with 450+ HR, with the career record at 525.

I have injuries set on "Normal (OOTP Classic)" and I wonder if that's impacting hitters more than pitchers?

Take a look and let me know what you think.

I wonder if the 80s were a pitcher dominated decade, at least in relation to the 30s and 90s and 21st century, when so many of the offensive records (especially HR) have been made.

In other words, I wonder if those numbers are pretty accurate for a 80s style league.

[Raidergoo]

Originally Posted by jar2574

I wonder if the 80s were a pitcher dominated decade, at least in relation to the 30s and 90s and 21st century, when so many of the offensive records (especially HR) have been made.

In other words, I wonder if those numbers are pretty accurate for a 80s style league.

You don't have to wonder. You can look it up.

American League Batting Encyclopedia - Baseball-Reference.com
American League Pitching Encyclopedia - Baseball-Reference.com

National League Batting Encyclopedia - Baseball-Reference.com
National League Pitching Encyclopedia - Baseball-Reference.com

[BigRed75]

Originally Posted by gordyhulten

• At first glance, HRs look good season-wise, but low career wise. Only five players with 450+ HR, with the career record at 525.

I don't know...if you were going for a 1980s offensive model, and when you consider than between 1978 and 1989 NO ONE hit 50 homers in a season, I'd say those home run numbers are pretty much right on the money.

The '80s were the only decade in the live-ball era to not have at least one 50 HR season. Big Mac's 49 in 1987 was the closest. Out of curiousity, what's the single-season record in your league?

[satchel]

Originally Posted by BigRed75

I don't know...if you were going for a 1980s offensive model, and when you consider than between 1978 and 1989 NO ONE hit 50 homers in a season, I'd say those home run numbers are pretty much right on the money.

The '80s were the only decade in the live-ball era to not have at least one 50 HR season.

There were only two 50+ home run seasons between 1962-1989: Willie Mays in '65 and George Foster in '77.

[Malleus Dei]

Originally Posted by satchel

There were only two 50+ home run seasons between 1962-1989: Willie Mays in '65 and George Foster in '77.

Which makes the lack of one in the eighties essentially meaningless...

[injury log]

According to tests in beta, apparently player development was most accurate (i.e. matched Tango curves most closely) when injuries were set to 'high'.

[gordyhulten]

Originally Posted by BigRed75

I don't know...if you were going for a 1980s offensive model, and when you consider than between 1978 and 1989 NO ONE hit 50 homers in a season, I'd say those home run numbers are pretty much right on the money.

The '80s were the only decade in the live-ball era to not have at least one 50 HR season. Big Mac's 49 in 1987 was the closest. Out of curiousity, what's the single-season record in your league?

61, then 58, then 55.

I'm pretty happy with the single-season marks, but the career marks seem a bit low at first glance. But I can certainly live with it.

Originally Posted by injury log

According to tests in beta, apparently player development was most accurate (i.e. matched Tango curves most closely) when injuries were set to 'high'.

Thanks. I was wondering about that.

I'm running 100 years right now with injuries set to low. I'll post those results later today, and then run another 100 years with injuries on high.

[woodfeld]

It seems like the # of triples (both in a season and in a career) is a bit high. Granderson had 23 in 2007 for the most since the early 1900's. Granted, this is given that you are looking for 1980's era stats.

[thomamon]

I would really think there would be some tweaks needed to get this perfect again, especially with development. I bet if you just set the League Totals to what SkyDog had, and leave the modifiers alone would probably give closer results.

[Childress]

Originally Posted by woodfeld

It seems like the # of triples (both in a season and in a career) is a bit high. Granderson had 23 in 2007 for the most since the early 1900's. Granted, this is given that you are looking for 1980's era stats.

A bit O/T, but one of the *minor* faults of the previous versions was, IMO, the inflation of Triple totals. Particularly the unrealistic lack of fall-off in production in late career; few players in their 30s rack up impressive 3B stats. In the sim this is not uncommon.

[gordyhulten]

Originally Posted by thomamon

I would really think there would be some tweaks needed to get this perfect again, especially with development. I bet if you just set the League Totals to what SkyDog had, and leave the modifiers alone would probably give closer results.

That's an interesting suggestion. I just figured I'd use RonCo as a baseline and adjust from there, but perhaps the development tweaks already made to OOTP mean that I can just use 1.0/1.0/1.0/1.0 as the baseline.

Time to add another test-sim to the list!

[Aytumious]

Since the settings that Skydog and RonCo tweaked have been changed in OOTPX, I'm wondering what you expect to see? Wouldn't it make more sense to start with more of a default setup and tweak from there?

[gordyhulten]

Originally Posted by Aytumious

Since the settings that Skydog and RonCo tweaked have been changed in OOTPX, I'm wondering what you expect to see? Wouldn't it make more sense to start with more of a default setup and tweak from there?

Well the development settings have been "tweaked" in every single release of OOTP, and they've never really been very good, IMO.

And the offense settings need to be tweaked off of default regardless, because I prefer 1984-like stats, so I would need to modify the league totals regardless.

[RonCo]

If the development curve was changed, I think it's likely the aging curves and settings would need to change, too.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by injury log

According to tests in beta, apparently player development was most accurate (i.e. matched Tango curves most closely) when injuries were set to 'high'.

Given the new pitching model, testing this would be pretty difficult. You would need to be able to calculate a pitcher's true K, BB, and HR rate ratings at any particular time. Possible, but seemingly difficult.