Are Weight Changes Cosmetic Only - Or a Sign of Things to Come?

OldFatGuy · 02-09-2009, 11:02 PM

As I've stated, I play all of may games out, so time goes slowly for me. As I've also stated before, I keep track with a form I made of my players ratings on a monthly basis (since in OOTP8 the head scout rescouted your team on the first of the month.

And now, my ace pitcher, after 8 years, is showing he wants to be like me. My question is, will this lead to ratings declines too, or make him more injury prone, or is this merely cosmetic. I'm asking because I've seen no ill effects yet, but he's only 29 years old, and as you can see, has gone from 225 to 243 before he hit 30 years of age, which might mean he's heading for the stars

.

Below are his changes as noted on my form:
Jan-1901 - 225
Feb-1903 - 227
Sep-1903 - 229
Mar-1904 - 231
May-1905 - 233
Nov-1905 - 235
May-1906 - 237
Feb-1907 - 235
Apr-1907 - 233
Aug-1907 - 235
Oct-1907 - 237
Apr-1908 - 239
Sep-1908 - 241
Oct-1908 - 243

myasu · 02-09-2009, 11:38 PM

David Wells says not to worry.

Well, I will be amazed if these numbers really had something to do with either injury or player development...

RonCo · 02-10-2009, 12:00 AM

My testing some time back suggested that weight (BMI) had some influence on development. I believe Markus also has height or weight (I don't remember which...have to pull my records) had some influence on pitching, too. It's not much, no matter what. But I remeber it being statistically significant.

cody8200 · 02-10-2009, 12:01 AM

I've never noticed the weight gain leading to decline but then again, sometimes the decline seems so random, maybe it is from weight gain.

myasu · 02-10-2009, 01:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

My testing some time back suggested that weight (BMI) had some influence on development. I believe Markus also has height or weight (I don't remember which...have to pull my records) had some influence on pitching, too. It's not much, no matter what. But I remeber it being statistically significant.

Wow. I guess I still have so much to learn about this game!

OldFatGuy · 02-10-2009, 12:35 PM

Thanks a lot guys. He's got one year left on his contract. If he balloons up anymore, well, IRL I know I'd let him go (but then I'd get together with him so us fat guys could down a few brewskies

), and I'm thinking I might in OOTP too. Although he is my best pitcher, a career .620 winning percentage, my teams all-time K leader, and 2nd in wins, 3rd all time ERA (1st among starters, I've got relievers making the top 10 ERA list on my team's History & News).

satchel · 02-10-2009, 01:39 PM

Interesting situation, OFG, thanks for sharing.

OldFatGuy · 02-10-2009, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by satchel

Interesting situation, OFG, thanks for sharing.

LOL, if you like interesting, check this guy out and his groundball percentage from 1901 to now. He's been my 2nd best starter (and actually leader in wins), but it's amazing to see his GB% progression.

Jeremy Harvis, SP, DOB 1-06-1874 (He was 25 when I began the game 1-1-1901.

Feb-1901-46%
Mar-1901-46%
Apr-1901-48%
May-1901-48%
Jun-1901-48%
Jul-1901-48%
Aug-1901-48%
Sep-1901-48%
Oct-1901-48% Mvt Rating (1-20)=15 BABIP=.250, BF/HRA=1HR every 51.17BF
Nov-1901-46%
Dec-1901-46%

Feb-1902-47%
Mar-1902-47%
Apr-1902-47%
May-1902-49%
Jun-1902-49%
Jul-1902-49%
Aug-1902-48%
Sep-1902-48%
Oct-1902-48% Mvt Rating=15 BABIP=.321, BF/HRA=1HR every 61.42BF
Nov-1902-48%
Dec-1902-48%

Feb-1903-48%
Mar-1903-48%
Apr-1903-48%
May-1903-48%
Jun-1903-48%
Jul-1903-49%
Aug-1903-49%
Sep-1903-51%
Oct-1903-51% Mvt Rating=15 BABIP=.305, BF/HRA=1HR every 51.35BF
Nov-1903-52%
Dec-1903-52%

Feb-1904-52%
Mar-1904-52%
Apr-1904-52%
May-1904-52%
Jun-1904-52%
Jul-1904-52%
Aug-1904-54%
Sep-1904-54%
Oct-1904-54% Mvt Rating=14 BABIP=.268, BF/HRA=1HR every 57.31BF
Nov-1904-54%
Dec-1904-54%

Feb-1905-54%
Mar-1905-54%
Apr-1905-57%
May-1905-57%
Jun-1905-56%
Jul-1905-56%
Aug-1905-56%
Sep-1905-56%
Oct-1905-56% Mvt Rating=14 BABIP=.310, BF/HRA=1HR every 43.18BF
Nov-1905-56%
Dec-1905-56%

Feb-1906-56%
Mar-1906-56%
Apr-1906-56%
May-1906-56%
Jun-1906-56%
Jul-1906-56%
Aug-1906-56%
Sep-1906-56%
Oct-1906-57% Mvt Rating=15 BABIP=.290, BF/HRA=1HR every 48.33BF
Nov-1906-57%
Dec-1906-59%

Feb-1907-61%
Mar-1907-64%
Apr-1907-62%
May-1907-62%
Jun-1907-64%
Jul-1907-64%
Aug-1907-64%
Sep-1907-64%
Oct-1907-64% Mvt Rating=14 BABIP=.290, BF/HRA=1HR every 48.33BF
Nov-1907-66%
Dec-1907-66%

Feb-1908-67%
Mar-1908-67%
Apr-1908-68%
May-1908-68%
Jun-1908-69%
Jul-1908-69%
Aug-1908-69%
Sep-1908-69%
Oct-1908-69% Mvt Rating=14 BABIP=.285, BF/HRA=1HR every 45.26BF

It's slowly progressed from 46% to 69% over the course of his career. LOL, his pitches are listed as 1)Fastball, 2)Splitter, 3)Slider, 4)Changeup, so I tell myself he's perfected his splitter as time wore on which explains it. I'm easily immersed

.. Plus it's interesting that his HRA became more frequent even though his GB% went up, which goes against a thread I read here recently, but this is just one guy so it means nothing. Just interesting, I thought.

blang13 · 02-10-2009, 02:28 PM

Someone in one of my online leagues said he read or heard that GB% is just the number of outs that come from GBs and that movement rating had more to do with HRs allowed than GB%

Not sure what accuracy there is to this statement. But thats the info I work with too. ;-)

OldFatGuy · 02-10-2009, 02:40 PM

Not sure if you read this thread or not, but it makes a convincing case that GB% is a definite factor in HRA.

RonCo · 02-10-2009, 02:57 PM

GB% is definitely a factor in HRA, but it's a small adjustment to Movement, which is the driver. The fact that GB% can go so far up and still have a guy giveup so many HRs is an OOTP artifact.

Curtis · 02-10-2009, 04:00 PM

Sorry to sidetrack your thread (again) OFG, but as long as you had RonCo's attention, I've been wondering for some time approximately what the highest career groundball percentage was. I know that season-by-season it can get quite high, even over 80%, but from a career standpoint would it be more like 65%?

Sorry, should have specified that I was talking about MLB, not OotPB.

NomarHits400 · 02-10-2009, 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

My testing some time back suggested that weight (BMI) had some influence on development. I believe Markus also has height or weight (I don't remember which...have to pull my records) had some influence on pitching, too. It's not much, no matter what. But I remeber it being statistically significant.

Statistically significant or statistically measurable?

RonCo · 02-10-2009, 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Curtis

Sorry to sidetrack your thread (again) OFG, but as long as you had RonCo's attention, I've been wondering for some time approximately what the highest career groundball percentage was. I know that season-by-season it can get quite high, even over 80%, but from a career standpoint would it be more like 65%?

Sorry, should have specified that I was talking about MLB, not OotPB.

That's an interesting question. I don't know that I've ever seen a study that suggested how GB% changes over time or differs on a career basis.

RonCo · 02-10-2009, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NomarHits400

Statistically significant or statistically measurable?

Measurable (small) and statistically significant. I don't remember exactly which direction things went, and I don't know if it's a factor of player creation or of development.

02-09-2009, 11:02 PM	#1
OldFatGuy All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Northern Va., Loudoun County Posts: 1,896	Are Weight Changes Cosmetic Only - Or a Sign of Things to Come? As I've stated, I play all of may games out, so time goes slowly for me. As I've also stated before, I keep track with a form I made of my players ratings on a monthly basis (since in OOTP8 the head scout rescouted your team on the first of the month. And now, my ace pitcher, after 8 years, is showing he wants to be like me. My question is, will this lead to ratings declines too, or make him more injury prone, or is this merely cosmetic. I'm asking because I've seen no ill effects yet, but he's only 29 years old, and as you can see, has gone from 225 to 243 before he hit 30 years of age, which might mean he's heading for the stars . Below are his changes as noted on my form: Jan-1901 - 225 Feb-1903 - 227 Sep-1903 - 229 Mar-1904 - 231 May-1905 - 233 Nov-1905 - 235 May-1906 - 237 Feb-1907 - 235 Apr-1907 - 233 Aug-1907 - 235 Oct-1907 - 237 Apr-1908 - 239 Sep-1908 - 241 Oct-1908 - 243 __________________ I believed in drug testing a long time ago. In the 60's I tested everything. - Bill Lee

02-09-2009, 11:38 PM	#2
myasu All Star Starter Join Date: May 2007 Location: Tokyo, Japan Posts: 1,491	David Wells says not to worry. Well, I will be amazed if these numbers really had something to do with either injury or player development... __________________ myasu Bill Spaceman Lee- "The other day they asked me about mandatory drug testing. I said I believed in drug testing a long time ago. All through the sixties I tested everything."

02-10-2009, 12:35 PM	#6
OldFatGuy All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Northern Va., Loudoun County Posts: 1,896	Thanks a lot guys. He's got one year left on his contract. If he balloons up anymore, well, IRL I know I'd let him go (but then I'd get together with him so us fat guys could down a few brewskies ), and I'm thinking I might in OOTP too. Although he is my best pitcher, a career .620 winning percentage, my teams all-time K leader, and 2nd in wins, 3rd all time ERA (1st among starters, I've got relievers making the top 10 ERA list on my team's History & News). __________________ I believed in drug testing a long time ago. In the 60's I tested everything. - Bill Lee

02-10-2009, 01:39 PM	#7
satchel Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Ft Smith Ark. USA Posts: 2,681	Interesting situation, OFG, thanks for sharing. __________________ JL Commish NPBL Rhode Island Reds ’33 ’34 ’35 TCBA San Francisco Railbornes ’74 ’76 ’77 ’78 FL New Orleans Black Sox ’56 ’57 ’58 ’59

02-10-2009, 02:40 PM	#10
OldFatGuy All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Northern Va., Loudoun County Posts: 1,896	Not sure if you read this thread or not, but it makes a convincing case that GB% is a definite factor in HRA. __________________ I believed in drug testing a long time ago. In the 60's I tested everything. - Bill Lee

02-10-2009, 12:00 AM	#3
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,391	My testing some time back suggested that weight (BMI) had some influence on development. I believe Markus also has height or weight (I don't remember which...have to pull my records) had some influence on pitching, too. It's not much, no matter what. But I remeber it being statistically significant.

02-10-2009, 12:01 AM	#4
cody8200 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Indianapolis Posts: 2,436	I've never noticed the weight gain leading to decline but then again, sometimes the decline seems so random, maybe it is from weight gain.

02-10-2009, 02:28 PM	#9
blang13 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 20	Someone in one of my online leagues said he read or heard that GB% is just the number of outs that come from GBs and that movement rating had more to do with HRs allowed than GB% Not sure what accuracy there is to this statement. But thats the info I work with too. ;-)

02-10-2009, 02:57 PM	#11
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,391	GB% is definitely a factor in HRA, but it's a small adjustment to Movement, which is the driver. The fact that GB% can go so far up and still have a guy giveup so many HRs is an OOTP artifact.

02-10-2009, 04:00 PM	#12
Curtis Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Watertown, New York Posts: 4,567	Sorry to sidetrack your thread (again) OFG, but as long as you had RonCo's attention, I've been wondering for some time approximately what the highest career groundball percentage was. I know that season-by-season it can get quite high, even over 80%, but from a career standpoint would it be more like 65%? Sorry, should have specified that I was talking about MLB, not OotPB.