Study: Effects of Intelligence & Leadership

[f.montoya]

There had been some mystery and open speculation recently in another thread somewhere regarding the Effects, if any, of Intelligence & Leadership. So I decided to run a set of tests to see what I could come up with.

Setup: A simple 2 team league, no minors, no trades, no ammy draft, no all-star game, no nothing. I turned off aging and development, scouts, coaches, injuries, suspensions, everything that could be disabled was disabled to ensure that there would be a minimum and hopefully no other factors that could affect theses tests. I even reset strategies for both teams. All players ratings were set to 75 out of 250, all players were made into right handers, exactly the same age, weight and every player was rated equally as pitchers and position players so, conceivably, a position player could even pitch. In short, ALL players are identical clones. The most important area was personality ratings, which I zeroed out all ratings for all players to start.

Why this setup of only 2 teams?: I believe that a sample size of roughly 16,000 plate appearances, 162 games and the fact that a team with a leader, for example, would face a leaderless team for 162 straight games without fatigue and injury, would be enough to produce results from which to make a judgement.

In each of these tests, the San Diego Fugitives were always disadvantaged, while the Phoenix Kingfishers were given leadership or intelligence in the following manner:

Test #1: This test was the Jason Veritek test and pitted a team with a single leader(rating set to a max of 200), a starting catcher against a leaderless team for an entire 162 games.

Results: Inconclusive. Statistics do not vary much at all and the disadvantaged team still won a 52.5% of the games. Both teams were very close in runs scored, hits, doubles, triples, walks, OBP, etc. Statistically nothing to report. So, on to test #2.

Test #2: This test was based on the theory that there may be a need for more than one leader on a team. So this time Phoenix was outfitted with a leader at catcher, starting pitching, infield and a leader in the outfield. All were starters and were rated for leadership at a maximum of 200.

Results: Still inconclusive. Again stats between the two teams showed no gross differences but again the disadvantaged San Diego team won more games, albeit fewer than in Test #1. So, on to test #3.

Test #3: This test was an "overload" test. All 25 players on the Phoenix team were given a max rating of 200 for leadership.

Results: Intriguing...maybe telling. Although stats remained very close between the two teams, Phoenix did hit 29 more home runs than San Diego this time. The most intriguing part? Phoenix won 56.2% of theses head to head games. Could leadership, in larger quantities, have some affect on winning games? Possibly an influence on late/close games or in situations where the game is on the line? Possible. 162 head to head games seems to point to this possibility.


Test #4: Based on the above tests of leadership, I figured that starting a test with only one intelligent player would not yield enough for us to look at. So, this test was setup with only an intelligent Catcher and 3 intelligent starting pitchers, all set to the max of 200. That's all.

Results: Interesting. Not unlike the leadership tests, statistics remained consistently even between the two teams. But the team with the intelligent players won 53.7% of their 162 head to head games. So on to test #5.

Test #5: This time we went with the entire starting lineup set to 200 intelligence, and all starting pitchers, relievers and the closer set to 200 as well.

Results: This looks like it definitely points to intelligence as being a major factor in winning games. While the disadvantaged team scored fewer runs and got fewer walks off of the smart pitchers, they still had a better batting average than their brainy rivals. Even so, the winning % for Phoenix again was 54%. On to test #6.

Test #6: This was simply a re-run of test 5. Hoping to find anything to deter any new assumptions that might be made from these tests.

Results: Here it is in a nutshell. Intelligence in large quantities will produce wins. Not sure if the affect comes with late/close game situations but it definitely adds up to wins. Again, not much difference in statistics, but it seemed during my tests that the intelligent team just didn't lose enough games for me to dismiss the affects of intelligence.

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</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Test 1</td>   <td class="xl24">Team</td>   <td class="xl26">W</td>   <td class="xl26">L</td>   <td class="xl26">PCT</td>   <td class="xl26">GB</td>   <td class="xl26">AVG</td>   <td class="xl26">HR</td>   <td class="xl26">R</td>   <td class="xl26">AB</td>   <td class="xl26">H</td>   <td class="xl26">2B</td>   <td class="xl26">3B</td>   <td class="xl26">BB</td>   <td class="xl26">K</td>   <td class="xl26">OBP</td>   <td class="xl26">SLG</td>   <td class="xl26">OPS</td>   <td class="xl26">SB</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
</td>   <td>San Diego Fugitives</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">85</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">77</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.52500000000000002">0.525</td>   <td class="xl25">-</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.29599999999999999">0.296</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">156</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">1063</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">6041</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">1789</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">326</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">25</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">591</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">1143</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.36599999999999999">0.366</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.436">0.436</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.80200000000000005">0.802</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">31</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
</td>   <td>Phoenix Kingfishers</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">77</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">85</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.47499999999999998">0.475</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">8</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.28899999999999998">0.289</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">140</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">1025</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">5970</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">1726</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">348</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">29</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">582</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">1113</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.35599999999999998">0.356</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.42699999999999999">0.427</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.78300000000000003">0.783</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">56</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
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</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Test 2</td>   <td class="xl24">Team</td>   <td class="xl26">W</td>   <td class="xl26">L</td>   <td class="xl26">PCT</td>   <td class="xl26">GB</td>   <td class="xl26">AVG</td>   <td class="xl26">HR</td>   <td class="xl26">R</td>   <td class="xl26">AB</td>   <td class="xl26">H</td>   <td class="xl26">2B</td>   <td class="xl26">3B</td>   <td class="xl26">BB</td>   <td class="xl26">K</td>   <td class="xl26">OBP</td>   <td class="xl26">SLG</td>   <td class="xl26">OPS</td>   <td class="xl26">SB</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
</td>   <td>San Diego Fugitives</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">83</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">79</td>   <td x:num="0.51200000000000001" align="right">0.512</td>   <td>-</td>   <td x:num="0.28799999999999998" align="right">0.288</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">151</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1005</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">6060</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1745</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">338</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">41</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">638</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1148</td>   <td x:num="0.36199999999999999" align="right">0.362</td>   <td x:num="0.432" align="right">0.432</td>   <td x:num="0.79400000000000004" align="right">0.794</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">31</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
</td>   <td>Phoenix Kingfishers</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">79</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">83</td>   <td x:num="0.48799999999999999" align="right">0.488</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">4</td>   <td x:num="0.28699999999999998" align="right">0.287</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">142</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">992</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">6001</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1725</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">328</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">21</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">593</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1079</td>   <td x:num="0.35699999999999998" align="right">0.357</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">0.42</td>   <td x:num="0.77700000000000002" align="right">0.777</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">43</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
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</td>   <td>San Diego Fugitives</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">71</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">91</td>   <td x:num="0.438" align="right">0.438</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">20</td>   <td x:num="0.28799999999999998" align="right">0.288</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">145</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1012</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">6063</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1745</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">345</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">24</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">594</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1085</td>   <td x:num="0.35599999999999998" align="right">0.356</td>   <td x:num="0.42399999999999999" align="right">0.424</td>   <td x:num="0.78100000000000003" align="right">0.781</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">41</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
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</td>   <td class="xl24">Intelligence Tests</td>   <td>
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</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Test 4</td>   <td class="xl24">Team</td>   <td class="xl26">W</td>   <td class="xl26">L</td>   <td class="xl26">PCT</td>   <td class="xl26">GB</td>   <td class="xl26">AVG</td>   <td class="xl26">HR</td>   <td class="xl26">R</td>   <td class="xl26">AB</td>   <td class="xl26">H</td>   <td class="xl26">2B</td>   <td class="xl26">3B</td>   <td class="xl26">BB</td>   <td class="xl26">K</td>   <td class="xl26">OBP</td>   <td class="xl26">SLG</td>   <td class="xl26">OPS</td>   <td class="xl26">SB</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
</td>   <td>Phoenix Kingfishers</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">87</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">75</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.53700000000000003">0.537</td>   <td class="xl25">-</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.29299999999999998">0.293</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">153</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">1067</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">6040</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">1772</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">365</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">24</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">615</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">1080</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.36299999999999999">0.363</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.438">0.438</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.80100000000000005">0.801</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">28</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
</td>   <td>San Diego Fugitives</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">75</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">87</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.46300000000000002">0.463</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">12</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.29199999999999998">0.292</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">151</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">1023</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">6017</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">1756</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">326</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">23</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">619</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">1084</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.36499999999999999">0.365</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.42899999999999999">0.429</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="0.79400000000000004">0.794</td>   <td class="xl25" x:num="">24</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
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</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Test 5</td>   <td class="xl24">Team</td>   <td class="xl26">W</td>   <td class="xl26">L</td>   <td class="xl26">PCT</td>   <td class="xl26">GB</td>   <td class="xl26">AVG</td>   <td class="xl26">HR</td>   <td class="xl26">R</td>   <td class="xl26">AB</td>   <td class="xl26">H</td>   <td class="xl26">2B</td>   <td class="xl26">3B</td>   <td class="xl26">BB</td>   <td class="xl26">K</td>   <td class="xl26">OBP</td>   <td class="xl26">SLG</td>   <td class="xl26">OPS</td>   <td class="xl26">SB</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
</td>   <td>Phoenix Kingfishers</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">88</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">74</td>   <td x:num="0.54300000000000004" align="right">0.543</td>   <td>-</td>   <td x:num="0.28799999999999998" align="right">0.288</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">146</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1021</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">5973</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1720</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">348</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">26</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">634</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1077</td>   <td x:num="0.36099999999999999" align="right">0.361</td>   <td x:num="0.42799999999999999" align="right">0.428</td>   <td x:num="0.78900000000000003" align="right">0.789</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">32</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
</td>   <td>San Diego Fugitives</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">74</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">88</td>   <td x:num="0.45700000000000002" align="right">0.457</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">14</td>   <td x:num="0.29299999999999998" align="right">0.293</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">147</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">957</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">5940</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1738</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">362</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">15</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">561</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1085</td>   <td x:num="0.36099999999999999" align="right">0.361</td>   <td x:num="0.433" align="right">0.433</td>   <td x:num="0.79400000000000004" align="right">0.794</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">27</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
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</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Test 6</td>   <td class="xl24">Team</td>   <td class="xl26">W</td>   <td class="xl26">L</td>   <td class="xl26">PCT</td>   <td class="xl26">GB</td>   <td class="xl26">AVG</td>   <td class="xl26">HR</td>   <td class="xl26">R</td>   <td class="xl26">AB</td>   <td class="xl26">H</td>   <td class="xl26">2B</td>   <td class="xl26">3B</td>   <td class="xl26">BB</td>   <td class="xl26">K</td>   <td class="xl26">OBP</td>   <td class="xl26">SLG</td>   <td class="xl26">OPS</td>   <td class="xl26">SB</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
</td>   <td>Phoenix Kingfishers</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">92</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">70</td>   <td x:num="0.56799999999999995" align="right">0.568</td>   <td>-</td>   <td x:num="0.29299999999999998" align="right">0.293</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">157</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1044</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">5964</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1748</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">317</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">26</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">588</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1169</td>   <td x:num="0.35899999999999999" align="right">0.359</td>   <td x:num="0.434" align="right">0.434</td>   <td x:num="0.79300000000000004" align="right">0.793</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">34</td>  </tr>  <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">   <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
</td>   <td>San Diego Fugitives</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">70</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">92</td>   <td x:num="0.432" align="right">0.432</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">22</td>   <td x:num="0.29399999999999998" align="right">0.294</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">152</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1027</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">5971</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1757</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">364</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">30</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">579</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">1087</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">0.36</td>   <td x:num="0.442" align="right">0.442</td>   <td x:num="0.80200000000000005" align="right">0.802</td>   <td x:num="" align="right">38</td>  </tr> </tbody></table>

By the way, thanks Ronco for your Vanilla quickstart. Unfortunately the latest beta build wouldn't work with it.

[f.montoya]

With more time on my hands, I figured why not run test #5 again several more times to see what I get. Surprisingly, San Diego managed to take 2 of the next 3 seasons, but not by very large margins. Then Phoenix took 6 seasons in a row. Several by 15 games or more. In all, Phoenix owned a 53.6% winning percentage over the course of 11 head to head seasons of 162 games each. Intelligence does seem to have an influence but as San Diego showed in some of my test runs, this influence is not "absolute".

I think this is working as it should. Thumbs up from me on this feature and on how Markus coded it.

[Markus Heinsohn]

[Eugene Church]

Fidel, thanks for sharing that study.

It is always good to know when something in the game has a real effect.

[Tony M]

Does intelligence play a part in development though?

[Bluenoser]

Originally Posted by Tony M

Does intelligence play a part in development though?

I like to think it should play a small part, but I also like to think "Work Ethic" would be the personality factor that would have the most impact on development.

[Markus Heinsohn]

Originally Posted by Tony M

Does intelligence play a part in development though?

Yes, it does... intelligence and work ethic.

[thomamon]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

Yes, it does... intelligence and work ethic.

I feel like I've hit the jack pot!

How about a test with a team heavy in both intelligence and team leaders?

[f.montoya]

Originally Posted by Tony M

Does intelligence play a part in development though?

I should have some time over the next 3 or four hours. Stay tuned for another run of tests involving development.

[fantom1979]

Excellent work, thank you f.montoya

[f.montoya]

Definitive answer on Intelligence as it pertains to player development. All alone, with everything else set to zero and after allowing 2 full seasons for development, development remained 100% unchanged for the starting players of Phoenix who I set all to 200 intelligence. Now Markus could still be correct in that it may take a combination of intelligence and work ethic to have any sort of influence on development. That is up next!

[f.montoya]

A little disappointment here. Position players do not progress nor regress at all. 0% development changes over 2 seasons when combined 200 intelligence with 200 work ethic. However, pitchers(all of them) that had not been edited, fluctuated quite a bit with their pitching ratings.

This, I'm afraid, is not working as advertised.

[f.montoya]

Dola, Development was turned on(I hope that was obvious) and everything about development was left at default settings.

[sfeldkamp]

Interesting, but I'm curious: What were the ages of the players? That has a huge effect on player development, I'd like to see this study run with 18 year olds with potential ratings that exceed their actual ratings. If its not too much trouble.

[theasfl]

interesting findings

[fhomess]

It seems apparant that the influence of intelligence is small enough in these tests to be hardly worth the effort of choosing a higher intelligence player over a player with slightly better ratings.

[clamel]

I would like to know how much leadership and perhaps intelligence, work ethnic plays in the creating of a retired former player turned coach/manager.

Still think that when you just turn lets say Tony LaRussa into a manager he ends up a medium quality. Kind of sad.

Leadership should be a bit of a factor in perhaps late inning rallies and perhaps playoffs.
Just remember that many teams sign top players that has a record to do well in playoffs. Did anyone say Mr October ????

[SittingDuck]

Originally Posted by f.montoya

A little disappointment here. Position players do not progress nor regress at all. 0% development changes over 2 seasons when combined 200 intelligence with 200 work ethic.

Heck, maybe they just thought they were too good already and couldn't be taught anything (cough... Bedard.... cough)....

Anyhow, why not try it with guys at 90% of full ratings (180). Surely that is high enough to stand out and throws out the issue of max ratings causing some conflict. Ideally they shouldn't, but you never know. Because c'mon - this game is not documented that much...

So I'd be interested to see:

WE = 180
Int = 180

WE = 100
Int = 180

WE = 180
Int = 90

Lots of tests. Do them. Dooooo them....

[Malleus Dei]

Good study, Fidel. Thanks for posting it.

[f.montoya]

Originally Posted by sfeldkamp

Interesting, but I'm curious: What were the ages of the players? That has a huge effect on player development, I'd like to see this study run with 18 year olds with potential ratings that exceed their actual ratings. If its not too much trouble.

All players were born the same day, month and year and are 29 years old. I'll try another run of tests with 18 year olds with potential set a little higher. But results won't be until late this weekend most likely.