Markus - Observations after half a season

[JeffWard]

Markus,

This is certainly the best version of the game yet with very few statisical anomalies. The things I've found you might want to tweak are:

1. Too many HBP. Last year's Cubs players were hit approximately 36 times. In my current season, at July 6, they've already been hit 37 times. Often games end with 3-4 HPB between both teams.

2. Suspensions are too long. The minimum OOTP Cub suspensions this season, all for fighting, has been 10 games. Though I couldn't find specific stats, most MLB players appeal suspensions down to 3-5 games.

3. Running with 2 outs. Even with fast runners on base, about 66% of the time, a runner on 1st base does not score on a 2 out double. Same thing for runners on 2nd with a two out single.

4. Oversliding the bag. I believe someone else mentioned this. This happens far too often.

5. Too many amazing catches. Sometimes 5 or 6 per game. It ain't amazing if it happens that often.

Minor issues!

Jeff

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by JeffWard

Markus,

This is certainly the best version of the game yet with very few statisical anomalies. The things I've found you might want to tweak are:

1. Too many HBP. Last year's Cubs players were hit approximately 36 times. In my current season, at July 6, they've already been hit 37 times. Often games end with 3-4 HPB between both teams.

2. Suspensions are too long. The minimum OOTP Cub suspensions this season, all for fighting, has been 10 games. Though I couldn't find specific stats, most MLB players appeal suspensions down to 3-5 games.

3. Running with 2 outs. Even with fast runners on base, about 66% of the time, a runner on 1st base does not score on a 2 out double. Same thing for runners on 2nd with a two out single.

4. Oversliding the bag. I believe someone else mentioned this. This happens far too often.

5. Too many amazing catches. Sometimes 5 or 6 per game. It ain't amazing if it happens that often.

Minor issues!

Jeff

Amazing catches are one thing; probably just a toning down of PbP and not a determinant of results. The other four are a bit troublesome in that they could affect results.

I have not played out enough games to notice 1, 3, and 4 but I can lend support to 2 based on what I have observed from 10,000 feet so far. Jeff did not say so, but I think the frequency of such incidents is a bit overdone as well.

[BobB]

I am really enjoying OOTP9.

I agree on the amazing catches PBP - not enough routine high flies to the normal outfield positions or power alleys/lines.

Another thing that has been mentioned before: the long term injuries (while set at normal). After one season, in a 24 team league with three levels of minors, I counted over 90+ players on DL, with many of them still having 150 to 250 days to go before recuperation. I lost two players on back-to-back days whose injuries will cost them each 13+ months.

I don't know if setting injuries to low or very low will result in lesser type injuries or just lower the number of injury occurrences. At any rate, I am lowering my injury rating to low and see how that goes.

But I'll reiterate what I said at the top - this is a great game and I find it totally immersive.

[RonCo]

Perhaps a few too many HBP do occur, but you need lots more data to say so. Per the Lahman database, over the period of 2001-2007, teams were HBP between 29-95 times, with an average of 59.5. At present, the fact that it's July 6 and a team has been hit 37 times is pretty much in line with any prediction you would make in a stats class.

Year	Avg	STDEV	Min	Max
2000	52.3	12.0	29	84
2001	63.0	12.3	41	89
2002	58.2	9.7	30	74
2003	61.6	13.4	40	90
2004	61.7	13.4	35	95
2005	59.9	13.4	29	89
2006	60.6	14.0	40	95
2007	58.5	14.5	39	90
All	59.5	13.1	29	95

[Matter2003]

Originally Posted by RonCo

Perhaps a few too many HBP do occur, but you need lots more data to say so. Per the Lahman database, over the period of 2001-2007, teams were HBP between 29-95 times, with an average of 59.5. At present, the fact that it's July 6 and a team has been hit 37 times is pretty much in line with any prediction you would make in a stats class.

Year    Avg    STDEV    Min    Max
2000    52.3    12.0    29    84
2001    63.0    12.3    41    89
2002    58.2    9.7    30    74
2003    61.6    13.4    40    90
2004    61.7    13.4    35    95
2005    59.9    13.4    29    89
2006    60.6    14.0    40    95
2007    58.5    14.5    39    90
All    59.5    13.1    29    95

Like RonCo said, the best way to determine if a stats set is out of whack is to run some long sims, i.e at least 20 years and see what happens. SkyDog also has some good modifiers to the default settings and in it there is a reduction to HBP, since by default in last years version HBP were much too high also...

however, as I wasn't on the beta team this year and haven't followed a whole lot of development with this version, I am not sure if the defualt settings are still too high....SkyDog's modifiers would seem to say so tho...

[Neags23]

Originally Posted by JeffWard

3. Running with 2 outs. Even with fast runners on base, about 66% of the time, a runner on 1st base does not score on a 2 out double. Same thing for runners on 2nd with a two out single.

Is it actually near 66%, or did you kind of guess that number (i.e., did you keep track of these situations)?

[PhillieFever]

Well so far in my 1964 historical replay in which I play out every game,I've been hit by 12 pitches and its August 16th,so thats OK.The oversliding the bag PBP result has definitley shown up a lot since the last patch.I've seen it 3 or 4 times in the last 8 games or so.The amazing catches I really don't have a problem with,it makes the game more fun without affecting the stastical accuracy.Like the original poster said though,these are very minor details,this is without question the finest baseball sim on the market and I couldn't be happier.

[JeffWard]

Dear Neags,

It is just from observation, but, as my wife says I have a very statistical mind. Our city was doing a traffic test on our street. Just from observing 15 minutes a day while I walked the dogs I came up with the same numbers they did.

Not to say I'm not wrong here, but I think it's a reasonable guess.

Jeff

[David Watts]

I agree with Jeff when it comes to the baserunning with 2 outs. I often find myself going "Guillen" when I lose a game due to a baserunner stopping at 3rd on a single with 2 outs. Happens way too often in this game.

[pstrickert]

We've complained several times to Markus about the two-out baserunning. He claims OOTP baserunning complies with Retrosheet data. (BTW, if Cork55 complains to Markus about it one more time, he'll have to sit in the "time out chair.")

[DaddyO]

Originally Posted by JeffWard

Markus,

5. Too many amazing catches. Sometimes 5 or 6 per game. It ain't amazing if it happens that often.

It's interesting, but Diamond Mind Baseball, for all it's play by play prowess, has the exact same problem. Too many "incredible" / "amazing" / "leaping" / "spectacular" catches, especially at the fence. 5 or 6 per game sounds accurate there too. These should not routinely happen more than one every few games.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by pstrickert

He claims OOTP baserunning complies with Retrosheet data.

If I recall correctly, it's based on only the 1992 season's play-by-play results. Retrosheet has since made available many more seasons' worth of play-by-play results, so perhaps the fact that only one season is being used as the reference point by the game is part of the issue.

[kingpin1976]

Originally Posted by JeffWard

Markus,

This is certainly the best version of the game yet with very few statisical anomalies. The things I've found you might want to tweak

5. Too many amazing catches. Sometimes 5 or 6 per game. It ain't amazing if it happens that often.

Minor issues!

Jeff

I strongly agree with this as I posted elsewhere my dislikes of the pbp text.The dramatics are simply overused, cant some can o corns, and easy tags lighten up the dramatics a bit?

[Dagrims]

Originally Posted by JeffWard

2. Suspensions are too long. The minimum OOTP Cub suspensions this season, all for fighting, has been 10 games. Though I couldn't find specific stats, most MLB players appeal suspensions down to 3-5 games.

I believe this was tweaked with one of the patches. I simmed a game last night where the batter and pitcher were tossed in the first inning for igniting a bench-clearing brawl, and they each received two game suspensions.

[Raidergoo]

Originally Posted by BobB

Another thing that has been mentioned before: the long term injuries (while set at normal). After one season, in a 24 team league with three levels of minors, I counted over 90+ players on DL, with many of them still having 150 to 250 days to go before recuperation. I lost two players on back-to-back days whose injuries will cost them each 13+ months.

If you are only missing 90 players out of 24 teams, then not enough players are getting hurt.

MLB Baseball Injuries - CBSSports.com Major League Baseball Injury Report

That's what the current body count looks like.

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by Raidergoo

If you are only missing 90 players out of 24 teams, then not enough players are getting hurt.

MLB Baseball Injuries - CBSSports.com Major League Baseball Injury Report

That's what the current body count looks like.

Oddly, perversely even, I found that list to be reassuring especially the number of SEI.

[Cork55]

Originally Posted by kingpin1976

I strongly agree with this as I posted elsewhere my dislikes of the pbp text.The dramatics are simply overused, cant some can o corns, and easy tags lighten up the dramatics a bit?

I wonder how often these types of plays occur in real games? I have played out over 200 games of OOTP 9 so far and I would say that I have been seeing between 2 and 4 of these type plays per game.

I am far more frustrated by the amount of infield hits than the spectacular plays.

-Cork55