Most important pitching ratings?

findinghomer · 09-01-2007, 12:50 PM

okay im new to this game, and currently playing in spring. im setting my lineup then quick simming every game. my pitchers are getting completely crushed consistantly. what could be the reason for this...? also what are the most important ratings that determine a players value? control , stuff , movement? any help would be appreciated

injury log · 09-01-2007, 01:01 PM

One of the most interesting threads I've read in this forum discusses pitching ratings at length (after starting as a discussion of the Morale feature; keep reading for the pitching stuff):

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=148281

There is no straightforward answer to the question 'which pitching rating is most important'. Control, for example, greatly affects results as it increases to 100 (on the /250 scale), but increases past 100 have a much smaller effect. Anyway, if you want a lot of detail, see redsoxford's results in the thread above, along with the comments.

findinghomer · 09-01-2007, 01:11 PM

thanks alot for the link

mrbill · 09-01-2007, 04:10 PM

Along these lines, I read the linked article, but have an outstanding question..

What's the strength of the correlation between GB/FB% and HR/9 and BABIP, conditional on the movement/stuff/control of the pitcher? That seems to be one part of that thread somewhat addressed and then not so deeply explored.

Of course, that'd take more work, but I'm wondering if anyone has made an attempt.

Tycobbler · 09-01-2007, 05:45 PM

I've always thought of it like this and right or wrong i've fielded a first place winner always top 1-3 in pitching in my online league. (8 first place, 4 second place) over 14 seasons.

stuff= hits movement= strikes control= balls

So with a pitcher on a 1-10 scale my choice is above avg stuff, high control and movement or 7-9-9. Pitchers of this magintude generally, in my experience and testing are your best bet.

Kaitiaki · 09-01-2007, 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tycobbler

stuff= hits movement= strikes control= balls

That's certainly unorthodox, especially since the concept of strikes and balls are so intrinsically linked that you could just as easily say "bad movement = balls" and "good control = strikes". But hey, if it works for you...

- Kai

james17 · 09-01-2007, 08:16 PM

This is purely anecdotal but it seems to me that stuff=strikeouts, movement=home runs, control=walks. But I've noticed that a very high rating in one area can overcome a low or middling rating in the other two areas.

Again, these are just impressions.

Kaitiaki · 09-01-2007, 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by james17

This is purely anecdotal but it seems to me that stuff=strikeouts, movement=home runs, control=walks. But I've noticed that a very high rating in one area can overcome a low or middling rating in the other two areas.

That's not anecdotal, that's the entire factual basis of the system. OOTP's pitching model is based on the DIPS notion that pitchers bear the most responsibility for those three things (everything else, like hits, has a fielding component), and each of the three ratings not coincidentally correspond primarily to one of those things.

And while those are the things that each rating are most strongly tied to, it is all interrelated - so your observation about one rating balancing out another is valid as well.

- Kai

Tycobbler · 09-01-2007, 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by james17

This is purely anecdotal but it seems to me that stuff=strikeouts, movement=home runs, control=walks. But I've noticed that a very high rating in one area can overcome a low or middling rating in the other two areas.

Again, these are just impressions.

yeah thats what i meant to say

Left-handed Badger · 09-01-2007, 11:42 PM

As I have understood it. (Course this is basing off when I was a regular a year ago. The discussions generally related too BBs=control, movement=HR stuff=Ks stuff/movement=hits.

RonCo · 09-02-2007, 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrbill

Along these lines, I read the linked article, but have an outstanding question..

What's the strength of the correlation between GB/FB% and HR/9 and BABIP, conditional on the movement/stuff/control of the pitcher? That seems to be one part of that thread somewhat addressed and then not so deeply explored.

Of course, that'd take more work, but I'm wondering if anyone has made an attempt.

It only takes about 5 minutes in Excel if you've got a test league handy. I happen to have a few.

Here's some data on a moderately small sample size of one season of data from an 8-team league. I took all pitchers who faced at least 300 batters, which turned out to be 67 pitchers.

Code:

Strength of Correlations					
Rating	G/F	K/BF	BB/BF	HR/BF	BABIP
Stuff	0.275	0.943	0.375	-0.222	0.044
Control	-0.173	-0.230	-0.676	0.291	-0.016
Mvment	0.353	0.245	0.413	-0.478	0.076
GB%	0.921	0.206	0.129	-0.416	0.132
Veloc	0.316	0.627	0.167	-0.283	0.125

The bolded items show statistical significance to 95% in regression analysis.

injury log · 09-02-2007, 01:05 PM

Has anyone looked at correlation between Movement and GB%? I wonder if GB% is inversely correlated to HRs allowed only because GB% is correlated with Movement, or whether, if Movement is left equal, changing GB% will indeed change HRs against.

RonCo · 09-02-2007, 02:59 PM

OOTP movement rating correlates with OOTP GB% at a .32 strength in the sample above.

RonCo · 09-02-2007, 03:03 PM

My understanding is the GB% is only used in the results algorithm as a determiner of fielding outs/errors. So if my understanding is correct, that would mean the correlation is a tag-on done during player creation and is not part of the guts of the results engine. It's been awhile since I got into this, though, and Markus has a way of changing things sometimes.

09-01-2007, 12:50 PM	#1
findinghomer Minors (Double A) Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 142	Most important pitching ratings? okay im new to this game, and currently playing in spring. im setting my lineup then quick simming every game. my pitchers are getting completely crushed consistantly. what could be the reason for this...? also what are the most important ratings that determine a players value? control , stuff , movement? any help would be appreciated

09-01-2007, 04:10 PM	#4
mrbill All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: LA, CA Posts: 982	Along these lines, I read the linked article, but have an outstanding question.. What's the strength of the correlation between GB/FB% and HR/9 and BABIP, conditional on the movement/stuff/control of the pitcher? That seems to be one part of that thread somewhat addressed and then not so deeply explored. Of course, that'd take more work, but I'm wondering if anyone has made an attempt. __________________ UBL - Best Online League Evar! - Los Angeles Dodgers: 25 seasons, 13 NL West titles, 4 WC, 8 NL Titles, 5-time Champs LBB v5 league (retired) - Detroit Tigers/Commish: 19 seasons, 18 straight AL Central titles, 2006, 2008, 2014, 2015 Champs! NGBL v6 league (dead) - Texas Rangers: 10 seasons, 4 AL South titles, 2 Wild Cards, one WS app

09-01-2007, 11:42 PM	#10
Left-handed Badger Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: at the altar of the baseball god praying for middle infield that can catch the ball Posts: 2,036	As I have understood it. (Course this is basing off when I was a regular a year ago. The discussions generally related too BBs=control, movement=HR stuff=Ks stuff/movement=hits. __________________ -Left-handed groundball specialist -Strikeouts are for wimps

09-01-2007, 01:01 PM	#2
injury log Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Toronto Posts: 9,162	One of the most interesting threads I've read in this forum discusses pitching ratings at length (after starting as a discussion of the Morale feature; keep reading for the pitching stuff): http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=148281 There is no straightforward answer to the question 'which pitching rating is most important'. Control, for example, greatly affects results as it increases to 100 (on the /250 scale), but increases past 100 have a much smaller effect. Anyway, if you want a lot of detail, see redsoxford's results in the thread above, along with the comments.

09-01-2007, 01:11 PM	#3
findinghomer Minors (Double A) Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 142	thanks alot for the link

09-01-2007, 05:45 PM	#5
Tycobbler All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: 20 minutes from Comerica Park Posts: 1,956	I've always thought of it like this and right or wrong i've fielded a first place winner always top 1-3 in pitching in my online league. (8 first place, 4 second place) over 14 seasons. stuff= hits movement= strikes control= balls So with a pitcher on a 1-10 scale my choice is above avg stuff, high control and movement or 7-9-9. Pitchers of this magintude generally, in my experience and testing are your best bet.

09-01-2007, 08:16 PM	#7
james17 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1,305	This is purely anecdotal but it seems to me that stuff=strikeouts, movement=home runs, control=walks. But I've noticed that a very high rating in one area can overcome a low or middling rating in the other two areas. Again, these are just impressions.

09-02-2007, 01:05 PM	#12
injury log Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Toronto Posts: 9,162	Has anyone looked at correlation between Movement and GB%? I wonder if GB% is inversely correlated to HRs allowed only because GB% is correlated with Movement, or whether, if Movement is left equal, changing GB% will indeed change HRs against.

09-02-2007, 02:59 PM	#13
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,396	OOTP movement rating correlates with OOTP GB% at a .32 strength in the sample above.

09-02-2007, 03:03 PM	#14
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,396	My understanding is the GB% is only used in the results algorithm as a determiner of fielding outs/errors. So if my understanding is correct, that would mean the correlation is a tag-on done during player creation and is not part of the guts of the results engine. It's been awhile since I got into this, though, and Markus has a way of changing things sometimes.