Suggestion for next year: Win Probability

[JinAZ]

I had a suggestion that I think would be really innovative and exciting for next year: add real time win probability and leverage to the broadcast window when playing out games.

Win probability gives a real time indication of which team is most likely to win a game, while leverage quantifies how important a particular situation is to the game. I can imagine a small part of the game window showing both win probability (e.g. 57%) and leverage (e.g. 1.4).

Local broadcasts of the AZ Diamondbacks have started to show win probability during games, and I find it extremely interesting to see how it can change, especially during high leverage situations. It'd also be useful as a player, because it would help me decide when to deploy particular relievers or offensive/defensive substitutions.

More info on win probability can be found at http://www.fangraphs.com, including real time win probability for all games played this season.

Here are a few other articles about win probability:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...n-probability/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...l-blogosphere/

Lots more information about win probability can be found in Tangotiger et al.'s The Book: http://www.amazon.com/dp/1597971294?...H9921SJ5KXFNA&
-j

[Antonin]

Interesting idea, but it doesn't do anything for me at all.

I hope our local team, the Cleveland Indians, doesn't begin using this in their broadcasts. I don't know...it just doesn't seem like "baseball."

I know baseball is a numbers-obsessed sport, with probabilities endlessly calculated and re-calculated to gain maximum benefit, but a win probability approach just, to me, would take the sport and any game derived from the sport way into the area of excessively clinical.

Yes, modern baseball thrives on a scientific approach. You see managers send a guy out to pitch to a single batter based on lefty-vs-righty logic (the great former Indians manager Mike Hargrove used to drive me crazy doing this). Or you see a pinch hitter sent out to face a particular pitcher simply because he has good career stats against him.

But in the end, every true baseball fan's summer fantasy centers around his or her favorite slugger going out there in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and hitting a home run to win the game. It's all about belief. Love for your team. Faith in your hero to save the day. Calculations don't come into it.


If there is a new version of OOTP baseball next year, I would rather see existing elements made to work properly, like scouting. I'd rather see moddability refined, so those of us who want to create such things as a World League can do so easily.

[Joshv02]

This is a good idea for a mod, though. combing through pbp data should be able to provide that, no?

[Zeyes]

Originally Posted by JinAZ

I had a suggestion that I think would be really innovative and exciting for next year: add real time win probability and leverage to the broadcast window when playing out games.

The problem is that these would only be useful for a default universe. If your league's stats deviate significantly from modern MLB, the situational win probabilities would be quite different from the numbers that have been calculated from Retrosheet etc. data.

[JinAZ]

But in the end, every true baseball fan's summer fantasy centers around his or her favorite slugger going out there in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and hitting a home run to win the game. It's all about belief. Love for your team. Faith in your hero to save the day. Calculations don't come into it.

For me, the win probability adds to the excitement of it when a big hit does happen. It gives you a great idea of how big an event really was for the outcome of the game, which for me is fascinating to see unfold. Also, win probabilities can be resassuring, as they rarely get higher than 90% (and usually in the 50-70% range) one way or another until the final out--and 90% is just one out of 10 games.

Sometimes, when my Reds are struggling, it feels like the odds are far worse than that. When they use them in the D-backs games, it's usually to emphasize that there is still a great chance of winning the game, even when down some runs early (or down just one run late).

If there is a new version of OOTP baseball next year, I would rather see existing elements made to work properly, like scouting. I'd rather see moddability refined, so those of us who want to create such things as a World League can do so easily.

There are other threads for those issues.

This is a good idea for a mod, though. combing through pbp data should be able to provide that, no?

Yes, it should be fairly easy to do for someone who wants to do it after the fact, and I'd be excited about such a tool. But I'd be more interested in seeing win probabilities in real time during games.

The problem is that these would only be useful for a default universe. If your league's stats deviate significantly from modern MLB, the situational win probabilities would be quite different from the numbers that have been calculated from Retrosheet etc. data.

That's a very good point and one I hadn't considered. Nevertheless, I still think it would be a great feature. Judging by the roster threads, a lot of (most?) people like to play with current players, or at least use modern day equivalent stats in fictional leagues (I do the latter). So I think it would be valuable and fun for a lot of the players--and it could be turned off for others.

Furthermore, it should be possible to adjust win probability tables using OOTP's own play by play data automatically. One idea might be to have win probability be based on modern MLB (or perhaps have a few other presets...deadball, 1930's, 1960's, etc) in the first year, but then use OOTP's own play by play data gradually adjust the tables from that point onward. I don't see why this wouldn't work.

Anyway, it's an idea that I hadn't seen floated in the forums yet--I hope Markus et al will consider it.
-j

[Curtis]

Originally Posted by JinAZ

I hope Markus et al will consider it.

Who's al?

[Raidergoo]

Originally Posted by Curtis

Who's al?

Are you Betty?

[Curtis]

Oh, is the line, "Betty, when you call me, you can call me Al"? I thought it was, "Baby…".

[JinAZ]

http://www.kissthisguy.com/lyric.php?id=5079

[fhomess]

This idea reminds me of those World Series of Poker tournaments where they show the win probability for each hand based on what's on the table.

Originally Posted by Zeyes

The problem is that these would only be useful for a default universe. If your league's stats deviate significantly from modern MLB, the situational win probabilities would be quite different from the numbers that have been calculated from Retrosheet etc. data.

And this is where the idea should be ignored. OOTP is too flexible to provide a feature that will only make sense in a given context. There are a LOT of people who play OOTP in a fashion that's different enough from MLB to make a feature like this problematic from a support standpoint. I actually think it's an interesting idea and the more stats minded players would love it, I'm sure, but I think the potential problems outweigh the benefits it would give to a small group of players. Even among those who would play in a universe where it would make sense, I don't think everyone would like it.