Producing accurate historical stats in a fictional league

bulldog55 · 07-07-2006, 07:04 PM

I'm going to need some help doing this, as my tests have been producing some crazy results. I'm starting a fictional league in 1870 and simming to 2006. In 1870, I entered the league totals (just the totals themselves, not the modifiers/PCMs) from a 1901 MLB historical import, since I figured 1901 stats would be close enough for testing purposes. I checked the option to import league totals each year, but not to import PCMs.

1870 was insane. Guys with 100+ homeruns, 255 RBI overruns, ERAs approaching 10. I went ahead and simmed 1871 without touching anything, seeing what would happen if it imported totals on its own. That went much better; there were 15 homeruns hit the entire season between 26 teams. Compare that to the '71 NA where there were 47 between 9 teams. The ratios are markedly different, but it was much closer and more realistic than the year before. Then came 1872, and once again I had three-digit homerun hitters and 255 overruns.

I looked at the league total modifier ratio for '72 and it was much different than '71. The ratio was >.6, as opposed to the <.01 in '71. I don't know what the deal with the era stats are, but that one seems way off. I don't know if it's the fault of the database or if something I'm doing or the way I set up the league is throwing them off.

In short, I can't get accurate stats and I don't know what I need to do to get them. I've looked through the modifier/MLE sticky thread, but that doesn't seem to really address the matter at hand (though I admittedly have not waded through the entire thing).

Has anyone really gotten to the bottom of this? I've searched for all different terms and haven't found anything that begins to help me. If I'm just not looking in the right place, a link would be much appreciated. If this hasn't been fully figured out yet, it needs to be.

How can one create a league at some point in the past and get reasonably accurate statistics? Do you edit the PCMs? The league totals? The league total modifiers? All of them? Two of them? I'm at a loss. Given the alternate universeness, it doesn't need to perfectly align to MLB history, but when the 1872 leader hits 136 homeruns, something needs to be done differently.

Garlon · 07-07-2006, 07:40 PM

If you want to run a fictional league that paces actual historical league totals you should be using both the "automaticallyadjust league totals modifiers" and "automatically import historical player-creation modifiers" options.

Do not change the league totals of AB's, Hits, 2B, 3B, HRs, BB, HBP, K and BABIP after the first season. Set these when you create your league and leave them be. The auto-modifiers work by having these as a constant. I don't know what they should be for the first season of your league, but if 10x as many Hrs were hit than were supposed to be just start a new league and increase the HR total by 10x. So if you were using the 1901 totals and everything looked ok to you except Hrs, just start again using those totals and increase Hrs from 500 to 5000 or whatever the total you put in.

Do not start a league in 1870, start in 1871. 1871 is the first year we have player-creation modifiers. If you really do want to start in 1870 for some reason, at least make sure that the league is created using he 1871 PCM's. You can do this by inputting 1871 in he league set up, clicking the player creation modifiers checkbox....you should get the 1871 PCM's to appear and then going back and changing the league year to 1870 before you start the league.

07-07-2006, 07:04 PM	#1
bulldog55 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: California's Canada Warnings: 17 Posts: 2,481	Producing accurate historical stats in a fictional league I'm going to need some help doing this, as my tests have been producing some crazy results. I'm starting a fictional league in 1870 and simming to 2006. In 1870, I entered the league totals (just the totals themselves, not the modifiers/PCMs) from a 1901 MLB historical import, since I figured 1901 stats would be close enough for testing purposes. I checked the option to import league totals each year, but not to import PCMs. 1870 was insane. Guys with 100+ homeruns, 255 RBI overruns, ERAs approaching 10. I went ahead and simmed 1871 without touching anything, seeing what would happen if it imported totals on its own. That went much better; there were 15 homeruns hit the entire season between 26 teams. Compare that to the '71 NA where there were 47 between 9 teams. The ratios are markedly different, but it was much closer and more realistic than the year before. Then came 1872, and once again I had three-digit homerun hitters and 255 overruns. I looked at the league total modifier ratio for '72 and it was much different than '71. The ratio was >.6, as opposed to the <.01 in '71. I don't know what the deal with the era stats are, but that one seems way off. I don't know if it's the fault of the database or if something I'm doing or the way I set up the league is throwing them off. In short, I can't get accurate stats and I don't know what I need to do to get them. I've looked through the modifier/MLE sticky thread, but that doesn't seem to really address the matter at hand (though I admittedly have not waded through the entire thing). Has anyone really gotten to the bottom of this? I've searched for all different terms and haven't found anything that begins to help me. If I'm just not looking in the right place, a link would be much appreciated. If this hasn't been fully figured out yet, it needs to be. How can one create a league at some point in the past and get reasonably accurate statistics? Do you edit the PCMs? The league totals? The league total modifiers? All of them? Two of them? I'm at a loss. Given the alternate universeness, it doesn't need to perfectly align to MLB history, but when the 1872 leader hits 136 homeruns, something needs to be done differently. __________________ Commissioner, Trans-Continental Base Ball Association Owner/GM, Los Angeles Electrics (TCBA), Beaverton Rangers (OTBL), Portland Mavericks (Union League), and Los Angeles Superbas (Century League) Being smart, don't always make you popular.

07-07-2006, 07:40 PM	#2
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,377	If you want to run a fictional league that paces actual historical league totals you should be using both the "automaticallyadjust league totals modifiers" and "automatically import historical player-creation modifiers" options. Do not change the league totals of AB's, Hits, 2B, 3B, HRs, BB, HBP, K and BABIP after the first season. Set these when you create your league and leave them be. The auto-modifiers work by having these as a constant. I don't know what they should be for the first season of your league, but if 10x as many Hrs were hit than were supposed to be just start a new league and increase the HR total by 10x. So if you were using the 1901 totals and everything looked ok to you except Hrs, just start again using those totals and increase Hrs from 500 to 5000 or whatever the total you put in. Do not start a league in 1870, start in 1871. 1871 is the first year we have player-creation modifiers. If you really do want to start in 1870 for some reason, at least make sure that the league is created using he 1871 PCM's. You can do this by inputting 1871 in he league set up, clicking the player creation modifiers checkbox....you should get the 1871 PCM's to appear and then going back and changing the league year to 1870 before you start the league.