J.P. Ricciardi Not "Completely" Insane

darkhorse · 11-30-2005, 05:16 PM

Skipster begged and pleaded, so, I finally relented and sent this one up. Plucked from the Prospectus Notebook.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=4627

If you Google the names "J.P. Ricciardi" and Moneyball, you get 9,440 results. When Ricciardi was hired as general manager of the Blue Jays in November 2001, it was acclaimed that this was a move by Toronto’s ownership to get better, stronger…and cheaper, the Oakland way.

So, five years, $47 million for B.J. Ryan? Where’s the Moneyball in that?

To be fair, the Jays needed some bullpen help. Using conventional statistics, the team’s relief ERA was eighth in the American League (3.81) they had the third-most blown saves in the AL (21, tied with the Yankees) and the third lowest "save percentage" (.625, ahead of only Tampa Bay and Kansas City). All of this screams out that the team needs a proven closer, and quick, right?

Not so fast. Using BP’s reliever evaluation tools, the Jays’ bullpen looks a bit better than advertised. For example, as a team the Jays ranked fourth in the AL in Adjusted Runs Prevented (69.6) and sixth in the AL in WXRL (8.29). Two Blue Jays relievers who flunked out of the closer’s job in previous seasons--Jason Frasor (24.2) and Justin Speier (21.4)--were in the top twenty in the majors for ARP, ahead of Ryan (19.6, good for 24th in the majors). That isn’t too shabby.

Other elements of the Blue Jays team are in equal or greater need of improvement in comparison to the bullpen. The Blue Jays’ starters were sixth in the AL in ERA (4.20) and sixth in support neutral wins over replacement (SNLVAR) with 20.79. The starting staff can hope for some improvement due to Roy Halladay’s return from injury. Although the offense was fifth in the AL in runs scored, with 775, they were closer to last place in that category than they were to third place (to make things worse, the first- and second-place teams are both in the division). Toronto’s .250 team EqA is only good for 11th place in the AL. Even on defense, the Jays are middle of the pack, posting the seventh-best defensive efficiency rating in the AL.

So the questions about this deal center as much around the allocation of resources as anything else. While Toronto’s team is mediocre in several areas, Ricciardi has chosen to allocate $47 million to somewhere between 350-450 innings of pitching over the next five years.

There isn’t much argument over the talent of the fellow who will be pitching those innings, however. Over the past three years, B.J. Ryan has shown himself to be an elite reliever:

Code:

                 IP     ERA   SO   WXRL   ARP   2005 Salary
B.J. Ryan        208.7  2.60  285   9.7   75.9    $2.6MM
Eric Gagne       178    1.77  273  18.3   67.7    $8MM
Mariano Rivera   228.7  1.66  209  18.2   91.1    $10.5MM
Billy Wagner     212    1.83  251  13.5   65.4    $9MM
Keith Foulke     215.3  2.93  201  10.2   65.0    $9.5MM
Trevor Hoffman   121.3  2.60  118   8.2   32.8    $5MM
Tom Gordon       244.3  2.62  256  12.3   80.9    $3.75MM
Brad Lidge       250.3  2.59  357  16.5   73.8    $500K
Fran. Rodriguez  237.3  2.50  309  12.5   73.9    $440K

Caveats: Trevor Hoffman and Eric Gagne each missed about a season’s worth of playing time in this period, while Brad Lidge and Francisco Rodriguez have yet to get a taste of the free market, which explains their low salaries. Still, Ryan ranks third overall in the majors in ARP over the past three years, and a respectable 14th in the majors in WXRL. Ryan has a power arm (12.3 SO/9 over the past three years) and is relatively young at 29. That means that while five years is long for any contract with a pitcher, and while the $9.4 million per season average places Ryan right near the top of the reliever pay scale, this contract might not be completely insane.

After years of being saddled with the Moneyball tag, J.P. Ricciardi is playing a different game now. To those of you who read the Toronto team essay in Baseball Prospectus 2005, this is old news. While saying that Ricciardi has turned his back the principles that brought Oakland to prominence earlier this decade (and those that made him initially attractive to his current employers) may sound judgmental, it’s neither here nor there. It’s hard enough being a major league GM, without the burden of also being the spokesperson of a revolutionary--and sometimes unpopular--ideology.

It seems that this winter, Ricciardi’s been given some actual money with which to build his team, to go with the new non-sabermetric, non-penny-pinching attitude--the Ryan deal was followed by report of a five-year, $55 million offer to Brian Giles, and the rumor mill connects Toronto as a top suitor for A.J. Burnett. We’ll see what he makes of this opportunity.

JWay · 11-30-2005, 06:22 PM

its all about the money now!

darkhorse · 11-30-2005, 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

If you Google the names "J.P. Ricciardi" and Moneyball, you get 9,440 results.

It’s hard enough being a major league GM, without the burden of also being the spokesperson of a revolutionary--and sometimes unpopular--ideology.

Pfft. Hardly.

Google "Billy Beane" and "Moneyball" and you get 67,700 hits. "DePodesta" and "Moneyball" yields 27,700 hits. Exact same hit total for "Theo Epstein" and "Moneyball."

"Jon Daniels" and "Moneyball" gives a whopping 215 hits.

QuestGAV · 11-30-2005, 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

Pfft. Hardly.

Google "Billy Beane" and "Moneyball" and you get 67,700 hits. "DePodesta" and "Moneyball" yields 27,700 hits. Exact same hit total for "Theo Epstein" and "Moneyball."

"Jon Daniels" and "Moneyball" gives a whopping 215 hits.

Maybe he's the official Moneyball Ambassador to Canada.

darkhorse · 11-30-2005, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuestGAV

Maybe he's the official Moneyball Ambassador to Canada.

FrankieB · 12-01-2005, 12:41 PM

I dont think the deal was too big. Ryan is one of the elite relievers IMO and he was bound to get that kind of money. I agree with the article that the Jays dont actually really need Bullpen help. I think they woudlve been better off signing bats. However there are no bats available really.

Ktulu · 12-01-2005, 01:13 PM

They obviously need bats, but by signing Ryan it gives them more options via trade since they now have an abundance of pitching.

crackpott · 12-01-2005, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ktulu

They obviously need bats, but by signing Ryan it gives them more options via trade since they now have an abundance of pitching.

Indeed. They have to trade someone, either in the pen, or Rosario because Rosario has no options left, he has to stick this year and he's still loaded with talent. Same goes with Gaudin to a lesser extent.

GoCubsAndJays · 12-01-2005, 06:09 PM

Gaudin is pitching amazing. He has a 1.68 ERA in 48.1 innings pitched and 37 strikeouts. Let's hope he can have more command on his pitches and can be a staple in the Toronto rotation.

darkhorse · 12-01-2005, 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoCubsAndJays

Gaudin is pitching amazing. He has a 1.68 ERA in 48.1 innings pitched and 37 strikeouts.

Where did he put up those numbers?

TonyJ · 12-01-2005, 06:22 PM

Winter ball I'm guessing?

GoCubsAndJays · 12-01-2005, 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

Where did he put up those numbers?

They had it on Rotoworld. It was in the VWL. Venezuelan Winter League I'm assuming?

Sublimity · 12-01-2005, 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoCubsAndJays

They had it on Rotoworld. It was in the VWL. Venezuelan Winter League I'm assuming?

Are you sure it wasn't just your OOTP league?

GoCubsAndJays · 12-01-2005, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sublimity

Are you sure it wasn't just your OOTP league?

Yep.

From Rotoworld:

Chad Gaudin scattered seven hits over eight scoreless innings yesterday to pick up his third win of the VWL season.
Gaudin has a 1.68 ERA in 48 1/3 IP and ranks tied for the third in the league with 37 strikeouts. Dec. 1 - 3:33 pm et

11-30-2005, 05:16 PM	#1
darkhorse Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: fort worth, tx Posts: 10,850	J.P. Ricciardi Not "Completely" Insane Skipster begged and pleaded, so, I finally relented and sent this one up. Plucked from the Prospectus Notebook. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=4627 If you Google the names "J.P. Ricciardi" and Moneyball, you get 9,440 results. When Ricciardi was hired as general manager of the Blue Jays in November 2001, it was acclaimed that this was a move by Toronto’s ownership to get better, stronger…and cheaper, the Oakland way. So, five years, $47 million for B.J. Ryan? Where’s the Moneyball in that? To be fair, the Jays needed some bullpen help. Using conventional statistics, the team’s relief ERA was eighth in the American League (3.81) they had the third-most blown saves in the AL (21, tied with the Yankees) and the third lowest "save percentage" (.625, ahead of only Tampa Bay and Kansas City). All of this screams out that the team needs a proven closer, and quick, right? Not so fast. Using BP’s reliever evaluation tools, the Jays’ bullpen looks a bit better than advertised. For example, as a team the Jays ranked fourth in the AL in Adjusted Runs Prevented (69.6) and sixth in the AL in WXRL (8.29). Two Blue Jays relievers who flunked out of the closer’s job in previous seasons--Jason Frasor (24.2) and Justin Speier (21.4)--were in the top twenty in the majors for ARP, ahead of Ryan (19.6, good for 24th in the majors). That isn’t too shabby. Other elements of the Blue Jays team are in equal or greater need of improvement in comparison to the bullpen. The Blue Jays’ starters were sixth in the AL in ERA (4.20) and sixth in support neutral wins over replacement (SNLVAR) with 20.79. The starting staff can hope for some improvement due to Roy Halladay’s return from injury. Although the offense was fifth in the AL in runs scored, with 775, they were closer to last place in that category than they were to third place (to make things worse, the first- and second-place teams are both in the division). Toronto’s .250 team EqA is only good for 11th place in the AL. Even on defense, the Jays are middle of the pack, posting the seventh-best defensive efficiency rating in the AL. So the questions about this deal center as much around the allocation of resources as anything else. While Toronto’s team is mediocre in several areas, Ricciardi has chosen to allocate $47 million to somewhere between 350-450 innings of pitching over the next five years. There isn’t much argument over the talent of the fellow who will be pitching those innings, however. Over the past three years, B.J. Ryan has shown himself to be an elite reliever: Code: IP ERA SO WXRL ARP 2005 Salary B.J. Ryan 208.7 2.60 285 9.7 75.9 $2.6MM Eric Gagne 178 1.77 273 18.3 67.7 $8MM Mariano Rivera 228.7 1.66 209 18.2 91.1 $10.5MM Billy Wagner 212 1.83 251 13.5 65.4 $9MM Keith Foulke 215.3 2.93 201 10.2 65.0 $9.5MM Trevor Hoffman 121.3 2.60 118 8.2 32.8 $5MM Tom Gordon 244.3 2.62 256 12.3 80.9 $3.75MM Brad Lidge 250.3 2.59 357 16.5 73.8 $500K Fran. Rodriguez 237.3 2.50 309 12.5 73.9 $440K Caveats: Trevor Hoffman and Eric Gagne each missed about a season’s worth of playing time in this period, while Brad Lidge and Francisco Rodriguez have yet to get a taste of the free market, which explains their low salaries. Still, Ryan ranks third overall in the majors in ARP over the past three years, and a respectable 14th in the majors in WXRL. Ryan has a power arm (12.3 SO/9 over the past three years) and is relatively young at 29. That means that while five years is long for any contract with a pitcher, and while the $9.4 million per season average places Ryan right near the top of the reliever pay scale, this contract might not be completely insane. After years of being saddled with the Moneyball tag, J.P. Ricciardi is playing a different game now. To those of you who read the Toronto team essay in Baseball Prospectus 2005, this is old news. While saying that Ricciardi has turned his back the principles that brought Oakland to prominence earlier this decade (and those that made him initially attractive to his current employers) may sound judgmental, it’s neither here nor there. It’s hard enough being a major league GM, without the burden of also being the spokesperson of a revolutionary--and sometimes unpopular--ideology. It seems that this winter, Ricciardi’s been given some actual money with which to build his team, to go with the new non-sabermetric, non-penny-pinching attitude--the Ryan deal was followed by report of a five-year, $55 million offer to Brian Giles, and the rumor mill connects Toronto as a top suitor for A.J. Burnett. We’ll see what he makes of this opportunity. __________________ "The Human Torch was denied a bank loan."

12-01-2005, 01:13 PM	#7
Ktulu Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: BC Posts: 4,702	They obviously need bats, but by signing Ryan it gives them more options via trade since they now have an abundance of pitching. __________________ "The ice is getting even more thinner, my friend!"

12-01-2005, 06:22 PM	#11
TonyJ Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Gassin' Kurds Posts: 2,019	Winter ball I'm guessing? __________________ My Podcasts: Talk Democratic Dysfunction Name Two Bands with Andy and Andy

11-30-2005, 06:22 PM	#2
JWay Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Sioux Falls, SD Posts: 5,031	its all about the money now!

12-01-2005, 12:41 PM	#6
FrankieB Bat Boy Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 15	I dont think the deal was too big. Ryan is one of the elite relievers IMO and he was bound to get that kind of money. I agree with the article that the Jays dont actually really need Bullpen help. I think they woudlve been better off signing bats. However there are no bats available really.

12-01-2005, 06:09 PM	#9
GoCubsAndJays All Star Reserve Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 839	Gaudin is pitching amazing. He has a 1.68 ERA in 48.1 innings pitched and 37 strikeouts. Let's hope he can have more command on his pitches and can be a staple in the Toronto rotation.