You run the Pale Hose (Poll #1.5): Would you make this trade?

cknox0723 · 11-05-2005, 02:40 PM

A second try at this.

Miguel Olivo has been a staple of Pale Hose suckage for going on two years now, and as backup catchers go, he ain't a bad one. Kid's got the defensive chops that's made lesser backstops (e.g. Brad Ausmus) millions, and he hits southpaws just fine. Hackin' Miggy's also played the hero on more than one occasion this season.

But he's got his flaws. If a right-hander's out on the mound, any right-hander, Olivo may as well go hide in the clubhouse, because he's at best a .250 hitter. Last year, it was worse than that -- a .230 average and woeful .258 OBP against right-handers, without even a single home run in 126 at-bats. To compare, he jacked 5 Out of the Park (TM) in 127 AB's against southpaws, to go along with a nifty .299 batting average.

So you can't play him every day. He makes a good backup, but with free agency beckoning after this season, Olivo wants some bread. 3 years, around a million bucks a year, to be more precise. Is that the kind of contract that will make Pale Hose fans call for my head? Nah. But it also seems like a sort of frivolous expense for a club that's stretched by a $50 million payroll...especially one that doesn't really have a solid starting catcher in the first place.

So I thought I'd throw out a few feelers, and in a league strapped for quality backstops, it seems Olivo can bring some nice value. Texas is especially hard-up for him, since their starting catcher, Gerald Laird, just had his right leg give way, likely forcing him to the infirmary for the remainder of the season. To rely on wet-noodled, raw 23 year olds Adam Donachie and Edmond Kirsch is akin to professional suicide for a team within a stone's throw of first place, so we could get some goods here.

Tony Graffanino, currently salted away at AAA Oklahoma, would give is a better utility infielder than Aneudi Cuevas, since the latter's impotent bat negates any value that his slick fielding may provide. T-Graff, a 35 year old, ain't even hitting much for the 38-23 RedHawks, sporting a .270 batting average and decent OBP but little power, but a little's certainly better than nothing. He's not the real reason I'd make the trade, anyway, even if he is the most recognizable name.

No, the real reason would be to add a couple of pitching prospects to the system. A lefty and a righty, a guy at triple-A and one two levels lower. The southpaw is 22 year old John Danks, who's a perfect 6-0 in 6 starts at AAA, after posting a 1.74 run average in seven outings for AA Frisco. Danks stands 6'2" and reaches the mid-nineties with his heater, reason enough to recommend him. But he's also got a big deuce and a reasonable changeup, not to mention command that's proven solid at every minor league stop he's made.

The other guy we'd add is 23 year old Dave DeMarest, a right-handed pitcher who I hoped to snag in last June's amateur draft. Instead, he ended up with this ballclub by virtue of the seventeenth pick, and a year later, the man who's was a Tar Heel born and a Tar Heel bred is looking like he'll eventually be...a Tar Heel dead.

Code:

YR/LEVEL	IP	H	BB/K	ERA
2006, COLLEGE	132	108	40/169	2.24
2006, A		113	100	41/85	3.10
2006, A		98	81	21/75	2.84

His minor league numbers look reasonable, but keep in mind that "little league" ERA's are typically much lower in OOTP. DeMarest's 7-8 and 4-6 won-loss records are more indicative of the quality of his pitching, and if you refuse to believe in wins and losses, check out the drop in his strikeout rate from college to the pros. We are not talking about Mark Prior here.

And the scout likes both of 'em -- Danks and DeMarest -- about as far as he can throw 'em. Now, I don't have height and weight numbers, but Clark McTaggart is 53 years old, and if he was ever a competitive bodybuilder, I don't think that would be too old to be completely retired, do you?

Suffice all that to say that there is nothing that screams out to obviously pull the trigger on a deal like this, and to make matters worse, this Pale Hose club is solidly around .500 in a weak division; in other words, we probably suck, but why resign ourselves to it by trading away a potentially useful player? Just the same, I don't want to pass up a good deal, and we are starved for young pitching. After blinking a few too many times, I decided it'd be best to consult you fine folks.

So, what do you think?

cknox0723 · 11-05-2005, 02:43 PM

Hey, I did it right this time!!!

bump

CTSoxFan · 11-05-2005, 02:44 PM

My first instinct is to do it, pitching prospects excite me more than a backup catcher. But first I have two questions,

1) What are Danks stats over the past few years?

2) Who would replace Miggy on the Pale Hose as backup catcher? (Assuming you would replace Cuevas with T-Graff and then Miggy with someone in the minors or a free agent)

ifspuds · 11-05-2005, 02:54 PM

YORVIT!

Because, well, when you're talking about Pale Hose and catchers, that's really the only name that matters.

Make the trade!

CTSoxFan · 11-05-2005, 02:55 PM

Do it, I've thought about it and Danks and Yarborough could be your 2 and 3 starters behind the Buerhle One someday soon

cknox0723 · 11-05-2005, 03:08 PM

hey, now I am glad that the first reply wasn't someone insulting my poll-creating skillzzz.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CTSoxFan

My first instinct is to do it, pitching prospects excite me more than a backup catcher.

likewise

Quote:

Originally Posted by CTSoxFan

But first I have two questions,

1) What are Danks stats over the past few years?

Code:

YR/LEVEL	IP	H	BB/K	ERA
2004, A		144	132	37/145	3.30
2005, A		97.1	83	32/90	3.42
2005, AA	57	50	15/53	3.95
2006, AA	194	184	45/192	3.53
2007, AA	47	26	15/54	1.74
2007, AAA	40	29	11/41	2.70

For some context, Johnny D's record in 2004 at single-A was 10-6, and his 3.30 ERA was a little over half a run greater than the tenth-best single-A ERA, the 2.79 mark by someone named R. Lewis of Baltimore, someone who I think is now in the circus as the bearded lady. In 2005, his composite won-lost was 10-8 -- his ERA's higher, but apparently all of the minor leagues were juicing up that year, because the tenth-place ERA qualifier was James Houser of Toronto, with a 3.30 ERA. (And the gentleman who was 10th best at AA had a similar mark)

In 2006, he was 11-10, but I would say he got some nice run support, because the ERA's were low at the double-A level last year; soft-tosser Josue Casablanca of Anaheim led the level with a 1.79 ERA, and someone named Harry Novak had a 2.82 mark, good for tenth-best at the level. Danks' run average was significantly higher than that.

Of course, this year he has been very good, which is nice and all, but something is telling me maybe his fastball sits around 89-91 miles per hour most of the time, rather than the mid-nineties, or maybe he hangs the big curveball a bit too often. I mean, if he didn't, why the hell would a fairly well-run Texas club trade him to us for Miguel F. Olivo?

Quote:

Originally Posted by CTSoxFan

2) Who would replace Miggy on the Pale Hose as backup catcher? (Assuming you would replace Cuevas with T-Graff and then Miggy with someone in the minors or a free agent)

This is a good question. I have no idea. Tony Richie is the closest we've got to a third catcher, and though he's hitting .300 at double-A, I still don't think he's very good. There is no one to sign and the league is very short on catchers. It would mean Yorvit! (spudsy's boy) would play all the time, and if by chance he would get hurt, the 1 in 100 chance that we make the playoffs would multiply exponentially.

CTSoxFan · 11-05-2005, 03:18 PM

I'd still do it and hope Yorvit stays healthy. Maybe Richie will end up being a star

Jestor · 11-05-2005, 04:05 PM

I vote for pulling the trade. Your chances of getting a pennant this year are pretty slim despite the fact that y'all been playing out your asses.

Olivio is a BACKUP CATCHER!

Besides which, think of this future rotation: Buehrle, Scarborough, Danks as your 1-2-3 guys.

Now that's sexy Pale Hose on a stick!

Y0DA55 · 11-05-2005, 07:41 PM

Why are you even asking for advice on this one?

This is a no brainer. Yes!

rem · 11-05-2005, 07:58 PM

I think this thread has WAY too many words in it.

Vris · 11-05-2005, 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by remangiii

I think this thread has WAY too many words in it.

You don't read much by Craig, do you? :wink:

It looks mighty fine Craig. But is Danks playing over his talents this year? He wasn't that great before. Or is he finally playing to them?

Miggy's great. Yorvit is fun. Neither of them are super-spectacular. Cuervas is a Rule V (5) pick.

I would probably make the trade. Knowing the direction you want to head, yeah, it makes sense. But remember (and this is something you preach): TINSTAAPP.

CTSoxFan · 11-05-2005, 11:24 PM

You should just make Cuevas your backup catcher, who cares if he's never played their before :-P

The Funk · 11-06-2005, 10:26 PM

Yeah do it, if it won't leave a glaring hole in your line-up. Of course, when trading your backup C, strength in depth is key, but then you have no strength in depth anyway. Hell, you don't even have much strength in shallow. If these are good prospects then do it. I can't see him coming back next year. If he wants 3 mil over 3 years, let some other foolio pay him and get some pitchery-type people.

zukes · 11-07-2005, 10:43 AM

I'd do it. Danks looks like he'll at least eat some innings in the bigs and T.Graf, despite his uselessness against right-handers, should crush lefties if he's anything like the T.Graf in my universe. Olivo is okay, but who needs 3 catchers?

cknox0723 · 11-07-2005, 09:55 PM

Quote:

John Danks is not going to pitch much as the big league level. He's probably best suited to tossing BP to your hitting prospects in the minors.

That change anyone's mind at all? Sure, the scout could be wrong, just like all the other times.

But if he's not, and we catch fire (or the division remains weak), wouldn't it suck not to have Miggy Olivo around in August to give Yorvit a rest against a tough southpaw? Especially if Danks gets hurt, or loses his next three starts at AAA...

Nevertheless, I see the consensus here, and I'm no fool. Well, I may be, but I'm going to give it a few days (game and real) to think it over before hitting the 'Complete Trade' button.

Thanks for the responses. May just have to run a similar polling of you faithful lot in the future.

View Poll Results: Trade Olivo for Texas's 3 stooges?
yes, DO IT!!!	11	84.62%
nah, re-sign Olivo ASAP	1	7.69%
and be happy he's willing to play for your sack of crap club, peon!	0	0%
hold off, wait and trade him at the deadline for prospects	0	0%
uh, what do you call this?	1	7.69%
Option 6	4	30.77%
pass, ride Olivo TO THE PENNANT, baby! WOO HOO!!! RAWWK ON!	0	0%
the team's under .500, dumbass. what pennant?	1	7.69%
don't make the deal, those guys suck	0	0%
yea tehy suk liek ur team HA HA	1	7.69%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 13. You may not vote on this poll

11-05-2005, 02:44 PM	#3
CTSoxFan Major Leagues Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 493	My first instinct is to do it, pitching prospects excite me more than a backup catcher. But first I have two questions, 1) What are Danks stats over the past few years? 2) Who would replace Miggy on the Pale Hose as backup catcher? (Assuming you would replace Cuevas with T-Graff and then Miggy with someone in the minors or a free agent) __________________

11-05-2005, 02:54 PM	#4
ifspuds Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Spokane WA Posts: 2,117	YORVIT! Because, well, when you're talking about Pale Hose and catchers, that's really the only name that matters. Make the trade! __________________ Jeff Watson Former dynasty writer and online league player, now mostly retired

11-05-2005, 02:55 PM	#5
CTSoxFan Major Leagues Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 493	Do it, I've thought about it and Danks and Yarborough could be your 2 and 3 starters behind the Buerhle One someday soon __________________

11-05-2005, 03:18 PM	#7
CTSoxFan Major Leagues Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 493	I'd still do it and hope Yorvit stays healthy. Maybe Richie will end up being a star __________________

11-05-2005, 02:40 PM	#1
cknox0723 All Star Starter Join Date: May 2003 Location: NJ Posts: 1,957	You run the Pale Hose (Poll #1.5): Would you make this trade? A second try at this. Miguel Olivo has been a staple of Pale Hose suckage for going on two years now, and as backup catchers go, he ain't a bad one. Kid's got the defensive chops that's made lesser backstops (e.g. Brad Ausmus) millions, and he hits southpaws just fine. Hackin' Miggy's also played the hero on more than one occasion this season. But he's got his flaws. If a right-hander's out on the mound, any right-hander, Olivo may as well go hide in the clubhouse, because he's at best a .250 hitter. Last year, it was worse than that -- a .230 average and woeful .258 OBP against right-handers, without even a single home run in 126 at-bats. To compare, he jacked 5 Out of the Park (TM) in 127 AB's against southpaws, to go along with a nifty .299 batting average. So you can't play him every day. He makes a good backup, but with free agency beckoning after this season, Olivo wants some bread. 3 years, around a million bucks a year, to be more precise. Is that the kind of contract that will make Pale Hose fans call for my head? Nah. But it also seems like a sort of frivolous expense for a club that's stretched by a $50 million payroll...especially one that doesn't really have a solid starting catcher in the first place. So I thought I'd throw out a few feelers, and in a league strapped for quality backstops, it seems Olivo can bring some nice value. Texas is especially hard-up for him, since their starting catcher, Gerald Laird, just had his right leg give way, likely forcing him to the infirmary for the remainder of the season. To rely on wet-noodled, raw 23 year olds Adam Donachie and Edmond Kirsch is akin to professional suicide for a team within a stone's throw of first place, so we could get some goods here. Tony Graffanino, currently salted away at AAA Oklahoma, would give is a better utility infielder than Aneudi Cuevas, since the latter's impotent bat negates any value that his slick fielding may provide. T-Graff, a 35 year old, ain't even hitting much for the 38-23 RedHawks, sporting a .270 batting average and decent OBP but little power, but a little's certainly better than nothing. He's not the real reason I'd make the trade, anyway, even if he is the most recognizable name. No, the real reason would be to add a couple of pitching prospects to the system. A lefty and a righty, a guy at triple-A and one two levels lower. The southpaw is 22 year old John Danks, who's a perfect 6-0 in 6 starts at AAA, after posting a 1.74 run average in seven outings for AA Frisco. Danks stands 6'2" and reaches the mid-nineties with his heater, reason enough to recommend him. But he's also got a big deuce and a reasonable changeup, not to mention command that's proven solid at every minor league stop he's made. The other guy we'd add is 23 year old Dave DeMarest, a right-handed pitcher who I hoped to snag in last June's amateur draft. Instead, he ended up with this ballclub by virtue of the seventeenth pick, and a year later, the man who's was a Tar Heel born and a Tar Heel bred is looking like he'll eventually be...a Tar Heel dead. Code: YR/LEVEL IP H BB/K ERA 2006, COLLEGE 132 108 40/169 2.24 2006, A 113 100 41/85 3.10 2006, A 98 81 21/75 2.84 His minor league numbers look reasonable, but keep in mind that "little league" ERA's are typically much lower in OOTP. DeMarest's 7-8 and 4-6 won-loss records are more indicative of the quality of his pitching, and if you refuse to believe in wins and losses, check out the drop in his strikeout rate from college to the pros. We are not talking about Mark Prior here. And the scout likes both of 'em -- Danks and DeMarest -- about as far as he can throw 'em. Now, I don't have height and weight numbers, but Clark McTaggart is 53 years old, and if he was ever a competitive bodybuilder, I don't think that would be too old to be completely retired, do you? Suffice all that to say that there is nothing that screams out to obviously pull the trigger on a deal like this, and to make matters worse, this Pale Hose club is solidly around .500 in a weak division; in other words, we probably suck, but why resign ourselves to it by trading away a potentially useful player? Just the same, I don't want to pass up a good deal, and we are starved for young pitching. After blinking a few too many times, I decided it'd be best to consult you fine folks. So, what do you think?

11-05-2005, 02:43 PM	#2
cknox0723 All Star Starter Join Date: May 2003 Location: NJ Posts: 1,957	Hey, I did it right this time!!! bump

11-05-2005, 07:41 PM	#9
Y0DA55 All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: In the middle of the Yankees/Red Sox Rivalry Posts: 1,771	Why are you even asking for advice on this one? This is a no brainer. Yes! __________________ Do, or do not, there is no try!

11-05-2005, 07:58 PM	#10
rem Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: College Park, Md. Posts: 5,024	I think this thread has WAY too many words in it. __________________ OTBA: Washington Filibusters CLBR: Minnesota Twins 2005 Winner of LL's Pick the Loser Contest! - 15-0

11-05-2005, 11:24 PM	#12
CTSoxFan Major Leagues Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 493	You should just make Cuevas your backup catcher, who cares if he's never played their before :-P __________________

11-06-2005, 10:26 PM	#13
The Funk All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Watford Posts: 903	Yeah do it, if it won't leave a glaring hole in your line-up. Of course, when trading your backup C, strength in depth is key, but then you have no strength in depth anyway. Hell, you don't even have much strength in shallow. If these are good prospects then do it. I can't see him coming back next year. If he wants 3 mil over 3 years, let some other foolio pay him and get some pitchery-type people. __________________ Talkin' 'bout the issues but keepin' it funky!

11-07-2005, 10:43 AM	#14
zukes All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London, Ont. Canada Posts: 1,106	I'd do it. Danks looks like he'll at least eat some innings in the bigs and T.Graf, despite his uselessness against right-handers, should crush lefties if he's anything like the T.Graf in my universe. Olivo is okay, but who needs 3 catchers?