Anyone else pulling multiple deGrom's?

Hawks 27 · 03-31-2019, 11:45 PM

I've pulled 3 now and was wondering if anyone else has experienced this. Maybe these are actually more common than the 1/1,000 odds for a perfect?

LandiHero · 04-01-2019, 12:17 AM

Man, I wish I had your luck. I've only pulled one diamond (no perfects), and one of my teams is devoted to packs only. Hopefully some of your luck will rub off on me?

Mooshimanx · 04-01-2019, 12:31 AM

I think it's just because you're much more likely to pull a Live card than a historic card and there are way more historic perfects than live cards.

Hawks 27 · 04-01-2019, 12:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LandiHero

Man, I wish I had your luck. I've only pulled one diamond (no perfects), and one of my teams is devoted to packs only. Hopefully some of your luck will rub off on me?

Haha, I’d give it if I could!! I definitely go on streaks where it’ll be nothing but junk packs. Then I’ll grab a diamond and a perfect and not know what hit me.

TheKid95 · 04-01-2019, 07:06 AM

Out of three perfects I've pulled, two were deGrom, so maybe?

Westheim · 04-01-2019, 08:11 AM

I do not have the precise numbers ready here, but what was it? 53 perfect cards and of those only nine were live cards initially?

Coupled with 70% odds to draw a live card at any point, that means any specific live perfect card (with these numbers, they might be off slightly) has odds of dropping of:

1/9 * 7/10 = 7.77%

It is not hard to see how that could lead to duplicate (triplicate?) perfects for one PT player.

Meanwhile the odds for any specific historical perfect would be:

1/44 * 3/10 = 0.68%

Charlatan · 04-01-2019, 10:12 AM

All the perfects I've drawn have been deGroms!

Note: I have not pulled any perfect cards yet.

Hawks 27 · 04-01-2019, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlatan

All the perfects I've drawn have been deGroms!

Note: I have not pulled any perfect cards yet.

03-31-2019, 11:45 PM	#1
Hawks 27 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2019 Location: Cincinnati/Chicago Posts: 90	Anyone else pulling multiple deGrom's? I've pulled 3 now and was wondering if anyone else has experienced this. Maybe these are actually more common than the 1/1,000 odds for a perfect?

04-01-2019, 08:11 AM	#6
Westheim Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Germany Posts: 13,242	I do not have the precise numbers ready here, but what was it? 53 perfect cards and of those only nine were live cards initially? Coupled with 70% odds to draw a live card at any point, that means any specific live perfect card (with these numbers, they might be off slightly) has odds of dropping of: 1/9 * 7/10 = 7.77% It is not hard to see how that could lead to duplicate (triplicate?) perfects for one PT player. Meanwhile the odds for any specific historical perfect would be: 1/44 * 3/10 = 0.68% __________________ Portland Raccoons, 90 years of excell-.... of baseball: Furballs here! 1983 * 1989 * 1991 * 1992 * 1993 * 1995 * 1996 * 2010 * 2017 * 2018 * 2019 * 2026 * 2028 * 2035 * 2037 * 2044 * 2045 * 2046 * 2047 * 2048 * 2051 * 2054 * 2055 * 2061 1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA \| RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO Resident Mets Cynic - The Mets from 1962 onwards, here.

04-01-2019, 12:17 AM	#2
LandiHero Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Feb 2019 Location: Pittsburgh, PA Posts: 48	Man, I wish I had your luck. I've only pulled one diamond (no perfects), and one of my teams is devoted to packs only. Hopefully some of your luck will rub off on me?

04-01-2019, 12:31 AM	#3
Mooshimanx Bat Boy Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 10	I think it's just because you're much more likely to pull a Live card than a historic card and there are way more historic perfects than live cards.

04-01-2019, 07:06 AM	#5
TheKid95 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jan 2019 Location: Denver Posts: 30	Out of three perfects I've pulled, two were deGrom, so maybe?

04-01-2019, 10:12 AM	#7
Charlatan All Star Starter Join Date: May 2006 Location: Leesburg, VA Posts: 1,492	All the perfects I've drawn have been deGroms! Note: I have not pulled any perfect cards yet.