Moneyball Take 2

[QuestGAV]

MONEYBALL - TAKE 2

The transition of the Montreal Expos to the Washington Nationals was finalized today as the franchise's sale was unanimously approved by the league's other owners for $200 million dollars to an unlikely suitor. Twenty-four year old Gavin Campbell bid was nearly 25% higher than any of the other bids received by MLB and nearly 50% higher than what they had expected for the itinerant franchise that has floated up and down the eastern seaboard for the past few seasons between Montreal and Puerto Rico before finally settling down in the middle. The lone issue that concerned the other owners was the method Campbell used to acquire the assets for a transaction like this: he won the Tri-State Powerball lottery a few months ago, winning a record $400 million dollars, to be paid over a period of 20 years at $20 million per year. Because the bid was so abnormally high, the rest of the owners were willing to accept $20 million per year over the next 10 years in return for the franchise which they previously owned together.

Campbell was talkative and visibly excited at the press conference following the announcement. "Hot damn! Where else but America? Two months ago I was making $12 an hour and now I own a Major League Baseball team. I'm investing every dime I've got coming to me for the next ten years into this franchise. Sure I could buy some private jets and a few homes, but that's not going to give me nearly the thrill that owning a major league franchise will.

"Every kid growing up in America dreams about this and I want to make sure the kids in the DC area have something to dream about. Baseball is back in America's capital and it's here to stay. We're going to play solid baseball and give the fans something to cheer for and look up to.

"There's only one way I know to build a fanbase and that by winning early and winning consistently. With that in mind, I'd like to introduce our General Manager and Director of Baseball Operations, David Forst." Forst stepped onto the platform with Selig and Campbell, the twenty-seven year old looking only slightly older than his new boss.

"David was the Assistant General Manager and Coordinator of Professional Scouting for the Oakland Athletics under Billy Beane and brings us the new-school knowledge that should help us be competitive as we build our fanbase here in the Washington area."

Forst took the microphone as Campbell finished his remarks. "Gavin and I talked extensively before I took this job. Anytime you come into a situation working under someone who isn't known in the baseball circles you have to be a little skeptical. He showed quite a bit more knowledge and maturity than I initially expected and I'm very comfortable that together we'll be able to build a winning team. He has the commitment to do things the right way and give this area a team that can come to the park and win on any given day."

"We'll be retaining Frank Robinson as our manager. Frank is a man that is universally respected by everyone in baseball from the league administration to team front offices and staff. Most importantly, he is respected by his players and is the sort of teacher that's going to be able to develop skills for our players now and down the road. Most importantly, I think Frank's ability to cultivate a culture of winning on the field will support our efforts to create one in the front office. I want everyone in this organization, from Gavin, Frank, and myself to Jose Vidro and Nick Johnson to the ticket taker and the beer guy to believe we're going to the playoffs every year. That's not going to be easy, but that's our mandate. If we believe, the fans will too."

"Like I said, that's not going to be easy. We're going to also focus on "sustainable development". What that means is that we will not sacrifice future seasons for the ability to win now. We're going to develop a team that can be a factor in the playoffs every year. Winning starts in the farm system, you've got to develop your superstars and fill in the gaps with trades and free agent bargains. This formula isn't a secret anymore, but it takes real discipline to stick to it. Thank you folks."

Campbell took the microphone back as Forst sat down. "We have a three-part plan for the success of our franchise. Paul mentioned the first two parts of the plan, what we call mandates. Our first mandate is to develop a winning organizational culture. Players on teams who win come in and play harder - they like their job more. Our second mandate is to maintain a sustainable development policy. It sounds obvious, but we know we can't mortgage the future for a shot in the present. The fans shouldn't have to put up with that and we hope we won't. At the end of every year we're going to come back and see if we've been successful in achieving the goals our three mandates set for us, and if we haven't we'll make the necessary changes."

"The third mandate is to have fun. With that in mind I'd like to announce that we have contracted former Presidential candidate Howard Dean to be our mascot. Howard will be chained to a post in a small area next to the bullpen to amuse our fans and frighten opposing players. Every time the Nationals hit a home run, he is expected to unleash the sort of guttural cry that ended his hopes to be the Commander in Chief. If he fails to do this, the surrounding fans should feel free to pelt him with plush stuffed donkeys!"

[QuestGAV]

Giving Forst a shot despite Paul DePodesta's inauspicious shot in Oakland was a gutsy move for the young Campbell. DePodesta also hails from Billy Beane's stable of great young minds in Oakland but thus far has been unable to shower himself in the same sort of glory as Beane. In fact, with the expensive signings of fragile JD Drew and inconsistent Derek Lowe, it appears the Dodgers payroll has allowed DePodesta to forget all the teachings that have made Athletics so successful. Forst will not have that luxury in Washington. For starters, Campbell's pockets aren't nearly as deep as fellow Massachusetts native and Dodger owner Frank McCourt. More importantly, the Washington market isn't nearly as big and they face stiff competition from the entrenched Orioles.

Forst wouldn't have it any other way. "I'm like Billy in many respects. Part of what makes this game so thrilling is the challenge, the mental stimulation. This organization is going to have to make every dollar count. There's no billionaire here to bail us out if we start losing and attendance drops while we still have big contracts on the books. From start to finish our eyes have to be on the present and the future, not the past. The question we have to ask with each and every contract offer we make is:'Is this guy going to produce enough to be worth the contract we're offering or are we paying for past production?' You can't pay for past production. You either look to the future or you look for a new job."

Campbell backed his General Manager's opinion strongly. "Hey, I'm not used to having checks with lots of zeroes on them. If I'm writing checks on them with extra zeroes for guys who produce like guys with less zeroes I'm not going to be happy. And our fans aren't going to be happy. This franchise needs to provide value for our fans and we're going to do that by having players who provide good value. That and having Howard Dean swallow baseballs whole at the 7th inning stretch. It's quite a spectacle, I promise."

The first task for Campbell was evaluating the team's financial position. With his full lottery payments every year going to the other Major League Baseball owners there was no money to spend on the franchise except what the franchise generated. RFK Stadium provides the team with a spacious venue, but the limited fan support meant having the league's lowest average ticket price at $6. The team's payroll was projected at $49.5 million per year, while existing revenue streams could be tapped for up to $60m, including $17.5m for broadcast rights. This left a little room for extra spending but wouldn't allow for the sort of binge signing the Mets indulged in this offseason.

With roughly $10m to spend, how many holes must be filled? That question was the first that Forst set out to answer as he evaluated his major and minor league rosters position by position. As Coordinator of Pro Scouting for the A's Forst had some familiarity with most of the players, but not the sort of in-depth knowledge that would let him sit down and decide on whether each individual had a future with the Nationals.

STARTING PITCHING:
Esteban Loaiza, 33, 2.5*, $2.9m
Livan Hernandez, 30, 2.5*, $8m
Jon Rauch, 26, 2.5*, $300,000
Tomo Okha, 28, 2.5*, $2.75m
Tony Armas Jr, 26, 2.5*, $2.3
Zach Day, 26, 2*, $300,000
Claudio Vargas, 26, 2*, $300,000

A horde of mediocre pitchers. Hernandez' salary is way out of whack with his potential production. If we can offload him, we will. Rauch, Day, and Vargas on the other hand are young and provide decent value. They don't give us the best chance of winning, but having a few cheap starters may allow us to upgrade a position player slot.

Clint Everts, 20, 5* prospect
-Future anchor of the rotation, Everts could be called up as soon as June if successful at the AAA level.

Justin Echols, 24, 4.5* prospect
-Million-dollar arm that hasn't put it together yet. Terrible year in the minors last year. Will need to pull it together quickly to have a career in Washington

Mike Hinckley, 22, 4* prospect
-Needs a successful year at AAA to earn a September callup. Way ahead of Echols, way behind Everts.

Shawn Hill, 23, 3.5* prospect
Colin Balester, 18, 3.5* prospect
Francis Beltran, 25, 3.5* prospect
Darrell Rasner, 24, 3.5* prospect
Jay Bergman, 23, 3* prospect
Josh Karp, 25, 3* prospect

Varying degrees of development and likelihood of success. Karp has the highest likelihood of contributing in '05 while Balester could join Everts in the rotation of the future.

RELIEF:
Joe Horgan, 27, 4*, $300,000
Chad Cordero, 22, 5* prospect, $300,000
Matt Childers, 26, 3.5*, $300,000
TJ Tucker, 26, 3*, $657,000
Antonio Osuna, 31, $800,000
Joey Eschien, 31, $1.04m
Sunny Kim, 27, 2.5*, $300,000
Mike Judd, 29, 2*, $300,000

Cheap and efficient, this crew will get the job done without busting the budget. Horgan in particular is an exceptional value.


Gary Majewski, 25, 5* prospect
-Similar to Echols. Lots of talent, little production. Probably a "never-will-be".
Benji Dequin, 24, 4.5* prospect
-Could be an important part of next year's staff but not ready yet.
Daniel Rueckel, 25, 4* prospect
-Same boat as Dequin

CATCHER:
Brian Schneider, 28, 2.5*, $2m
-Does lots of things ok, nothing great. Nothing terrible either. A perfect backup on a good team or starter on a bad one.
Paul Hoover, 28, 2*, $300,000
-Very little pop in his bat and only a mediocre fielder. A quintessential AAAA catcher.

FIRST BASE:
Nick Johnson, 26, 2.5*, $1.4m
-Respectable player on both sides of the ball. Provides very good value and may finally develop into a key player.


Larry Broadway, 24, 4* prospect
-Will be ready in a year to challenge for the big league roster.
TOny Blanco, 23, 3* prospect
-Not ready yet, may not ever quite get there.

SECOND BASE:
Jose Vidro, 30, 3*, $7m
-Won't hit alot of home runs, but should hit well enough to justify the contract. Jose will be an important player to keep happy.

Brendan Harris, 24, 5* prospect
-Can play third also. Should be a very good contact hitter and may get a major league shot at 3rd later this year.

THIRD BASE:
Vinny Castilla, 37, 2.5*, $3.1m
-Also signed for next year. Decent average & power, but two year contract seems risky.
Jared Sandberg, 26, 2.5*, $300,000
-Can play first also. Lots of pop, little contact. If Castilla can be moved should fill the hole at 3rd admirably while Harris develops.

SHORTSTOP:
Christian Guzman, 26, 2.5*, $4.2m
-Locked in as our starting SS for next 4 seasons. No pop, no patience. Gold Glove material defensively.
John Labandeira, 25, 2.5*, $300,000
-Our utility infielder. Equally poor on both offense and defense.

Alejandro Mojado, 22, 3* prospect
-not ready now, but in 1-2 years should be our starting SS.
Ian Desmond, 19, 3* prospect
-It'll take 3-4 years but he projects as a backup at the major league level.

OUTFIELD:
Termel Sledge, 27, 3*, $300,000
-Termel will start in center and probably hit cleanup. If he stays a value like this he'll be in our outfield for quite awhile.
Brad Wilkerson, 28, 2.5*, $3m
-More expenensive than Sledge but similarly well-rounded.
Ryan Church, 26, 2.5*, $300,000
-Ryan needs to make good on his potential this year.
Jose Guillen, 28, 2*, $3.5m
-Maybe he'll get himself under control here. Maybe he'll be out of baseball next year.
Endy Chavez, 27, 2.5*, $300,000
-A solid year last year but is an outfielder with limited range and versatility. He may have more value to another team.

Kory Casto, 23, 4* prospect
-Still has 2 years till he's ready.

[QuestGAV]

The free agent market still had some interesting names like Delgado and Ordonez available after Forst had taken stock of his assets. They were even willing to drop some of their demands to come to Washington on a 1-year contract and be a centerpiece. Doing so would mean taking playing time away from Nick Johnson and Ryan Church however and Forst just couldn't forsake their development for a 1-year blip in offensive production. Sustainable Development. Still, the temptation to splurge was very real. Ultimately, they passed on the guaranteed high impact acquisitions and instead refocused their efforts on a number of smaller gambles with low risk.

Twenty-seven year old catcher Ben Petrick was the team's first signing. For $300,000, the two star rated Petrick would provide a major upgrade over Paul Hoover as the second catcher and give a more feasible alternative should Brian Schneider go down. Petrick could even be considered an offensive upgrade over Petrick given his power and patience, but his poor defense and handling of staffs would make Frank Robinson nervous, especially given the mediocre talent in the rotation.

Veteran outfielder Jeromy Burnitz was the next to come to terms with the Nationals. The 35 year-old slugger asked for only $875,000 for 1-year. The small contract was surprising given Burnitz' solid performance with the Rockies in 2004. Burnitz' ability to play all three outfield positions made him very valuable to the Nationals, whose starting outfield seemed set with Sledge, Wilkerson, and Church with Guillen playing the fourth outfielder role and Endy Chavez providing depth.

The only other major league contract granted by the Nationals was to reliever Robb Nen. Nenn asked for $1.6m, making him Forst's most expensive signing. But Nenn's flawless workout and 314 career saves were too much to pass up. "A little bit of investment in what seems like a secondary concern can really strengthen your ballclub. Our starting pitching may not pitch 6 or 7 innings every night and having a healthy Robb Nen really shortens the game by an inning. Robb certainly wasn't the only reliever out there but he was the guy who has proven himself in pressure situations," was Forst's comment on the signing.


Adam Riggs, Val Pascucci, Jeff Cirillo, Robin Ventura, Armando Rios, Ruben Mateo, Brian Banks and Robert Fick were all signed to minor league contracts. None are expected to start the season on the major league roster, but each signing carried virtually zero risk for Campbell's team. "David found us some veteran players who still have some gas left in the tank. These guys fit our model of high value/low risk and each one has a decent chance to contribute to our team should the players on the Major League roster falter or get injured. This is what we're all about," according to Campbell.

Brad Thomas and Steve Sparks were also signed to minor league deals to provide pitching depth. Sparks, of course, has a long and successful major league track record but has fallen just short of pitching himself into a long-term deal at most of his stops. Thomas is only 27 and has not compiled a resume on par with Sparks but has excellent control and should be a steadying hand if the rotation is beset by injury.

Cory Vance, Nick Nuegebauer, Rett Johnson, and Andrew Good also earned minor league contracts. Each is a long shot to pitch much at the Major League level, but have solid arms. If the Nationals development staff earns their pay, perhaps one of the four will turn into a solid contributor. Your faithful narrator isn't holding his breath, as doing so till one of these guys breaks through may not be conducive to continued life on earth.

[UngratefulDead]

This looks great. I'll definitely be reading.

[QuestGAV]

Thanks!

[gocubsgo]

Good reading so far, keep it up.

[QuestGAV]

With the free agent market milked for value like a Jersey Holstein, the erstwhile Expos turned their attention toward trading the players who they felt couldn't live up to their contract.

First on the chopping block was Vinny Castilla. He was dealt to the Detroit Tigers for pitching prospect Wilfredo Ledezma. Tigers GM Dave Dombroski was ecstatic at being able to fill the Tigers' gaping hole at third base. "In my mind, the only other third basemen who were available this offseason who can hit like Vinny would have cost us more than $10m per year. We'll be paying Vinny a third of that."

When the trade was made, Ledezma projected as the #2 pitching prospect in the Nationals organization behind Clint Everts. "Though he's not ready quite yet, a September callup for Ledezma isn't out of the question. This is a guy who we feel will make his mark on the Major League level sooner rather than later. And he's not nearly as ugly as Castilla is," raved Nationals GM David Forst.

The next move also seemed to be a foregone conclusion in baseball circles. A top Nationals official told the Associated Press on condition of anonymity that Campbell had expressed to him the notion that Jose Guillen's "demeanor does not match the image I'd like our franchise to project going forward." The possibility that Guillen would be traded before playing a game for the Nationals became very real when Jeromy Burnitz signed with the team. Despite excellent production the past two years, Guillen's career has been marred by an explosive temper and immature attitude as he passed through the Cincinatti, Oakland, Anaheim, and now Washington franchises. The destination was a bit of a surprise however as Guillen was dealt to the Kansas City Royals for 23 year old Jimmy Gobble, a pitcher who has seemed poised to break out the past few years with the Royals.
Royals GM Allan Baird was frank with reporters. "Jimmy Gobble had worn out his welcome here in Kansas City. I mean, who wants their rotation led by a guy who looks like he's 15? He wouldn't be able to intimidate my 6 year-old daughter. We needed a man's man like Jose Guillen! With Juan-Gon gone to Cleveland we really missed having an impetulant jerk in the outfield and short of Milton Bradley I couldn't think of a better impetulant jerk to replace him. Imagine the kind of beating those two rednecks in Chicago would have gotten if they had come on to the field while Guillen was on our team. Jose would have found new uses for his bat, such as giving them splinters in their colon."


Privately, Nationals officials were also expressing concern over the conditioning and relatively paltry production of shortstop Christian Guzman. Though recently signed, Guzman's attributes matched the previous regimes ideals more closely than that of Campbell and Forst. Rumors spread quickly that the 26 year-old shortstop could be had for the right offer and the San Francisco Geriatrics stepped to the plate. The Giants overwhelmed the Nationals with an offer of 5 prospects for Guzman, including 4 pitchers. Live-armed relievers David Aardsma and Alfredo Simon were the most important pieces received by the Nationals but they were joined by SS Angel Chavez and SPs Erick Threets and Noah Lowry. Giants GM Brian Sabean noted "As most of you had noticed, many of our players were getting a bit long in the tooth. This trade gives us a solid everyday player under the age of 45, something we haven't had in this century. He'll compete with Omar Vizquel this year for the starting shortstop job. The loser of that competition will still be able to contribute to our team though, as someone has to do Barry Bonds' dirty laundry."

The trade left a hole at shortstop for the Nationals. When asked about the hole, Campbell gave a wink and said "We're confident that we'll get plenty of production from the shortstop this year and for the forseeable future." When given a chance to elaborate, Campbell declined.

[QuestGAV]

Does bolding the highlights make it more readable? Does it help to have some humor injected here and there or does it take away from the baseball side of the story?

[Lawley]

Originally Posted by QuestGAV

Does bolding the highlights make it more readable? Does it help to have some humor injected here and there or does it take away from the baseball side of the story?

Yes and Yes.

[Jestor]

Yes on the bolded highlights and yes on the helping that humour is in there

Very nice start!

[QuestGAV]

After these relatively pedestrian moves, the Nationals pulled a rabbit out of a hat with a blockbuster move that would have consequences for a decade to come. Livan Hernandez, Endy Chavez, and Justin Echols were sent to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for BJ Upton and Scott Kazmir. Apparently eager to shed their reputation as the league's most thrifty franchise, the Rays gladly took on the contract of Hernandez with the promise of adding a proven starter to their rotation. The team's fans were livid however, as they had been looking forward to seeing Upton's promise pay off for years and last year's teaser performance from Kazmir had left them wanting for more. The Nationals on the other hand shed $8m in payroll and added two of baseball's most intriguing young players. Gavin Campbell took the lead at the press conference, noting that "Upton and Kazmir would both be good players in the majors right now. Two years from now, they'll be among the best. Ten years from now I hope it'll be a foregone conclusion that they'll go to the Hall of Fame wearing Washington Nationals hats. Not that there will be any pressure on them or anything."

That final move ended the Nationals initial purge of players who didn't fit the franchise's new vision. With nearly $15 million in salary off the books and numerous outstanding high-level prospects reeled in, the first phase of the Washington Nationals new lease on life appeared complete. All that remained was to play some baseball!

Manager Frank Robinson and GM David Forst sat down today at the conclusion of spring training to decide what players were ready to be a part of a major league squad and who needed to get a bit more TLC in the minors. There were some players like Jose Vidro and Nick Johnson who were obvious locks to play this year at RFK, but many more like Gobble and Zach Day who were on the bubble. At the end of the day, the roster looked like this:

Rotation:
Loaiza
Armas Jr.
Ohka
Vargas
Gobble

Let's hope Kazmir and Everts develop quickly! No one in this rotation has the skills to win 15 games without the Yankees lineup behind them. Except perhaps Loaiza, but we all know how that worked out. Fans across the DC area are likely to soon find a new religion, viewing both Clint Everts and Scott Kazmir as saviors.

Relief:
Horgan
Nen
Patterson
Tucker
Ayala
Eischen

A more stable crew than the starters. Horgan will start the season as the closer, but as a lefty he's going to have to work hard to keep it. There's some thought that he may end up being the left-handed setup man for Nen, with Patterson working as the right-handed setup guy. Horgan will have to lose his job on the mound though.

Lineup:
Termel Sledge, CF
Jose Vidro, 2b
Nick Johnson, 1b
Brad Wilkerson, RF
Jared Sandberg, 3b
Brian Schneider, C
Ryan Church, LF
BJ Upton, SS

Eight guys who do a lot of things well but very few things great. A mix of contact, patience, power, and speed. The team is banking a bit on Nick Johnson making good on his potential and having a breakout year. Campbell reportedly told Johnson that if he had an OPS over 1.000 with 500 PA Campbell would allow Johnson to view the secret tape he made while on vacation with Dr. Ruth. The offer apparently didn't have the intended effect as Johnson was hospitalized for the last 3 days of spring training with spells of violent vomitting. When reached for comment, Campbell stated, "I don't know. He must have gotten a stomach bug somewhere along the line. I'm going to have the water at our hotel tested for bacteria."

Reserves:
Ben Petrick, C
Jeromy Burnitz, OF
Jeff Cirrillo, IF
Val Pascucci, OF
John Labandeira, IF

Burnitz and Petrick are no surprise. Each probably hits better than the starter in front of him. But Burnitz is much older than the starting outfielders and Petrick's defensive skills put him on par with Mike "Perttyboy" Piazza. Cirillo and Pascucci made the squad off their minor league contracts and should contribute. Labandeira may get an at bat or two per week. At some point, the Nationals may look to add a 12th pitcher and Labandeira would be the likely casualty.

With Robinson's major league roster settled a new problem arose. Nearly 50 players who didn't make the major league squad had enough ability to play at the AAA level. Clearly some tough choices would have to made with regard to who the players most likely to be an asset down the road would be. The rest would have to find another club to try and hang on with. Priority for roster spots and playing time would go to the most promising prospects, while the grizzled veterans like Wil Cordero and Jeffrey Hammonds will probably be released. The talent depth at A and AA is not nearly as remarkable, perhaps it will be possible to deal some of the unneeded high level players for projects that may help out down the road. Even before any trade talks regarding the spare parts began, 14 players were given their unconditional release to help clear up the playing time for those more likely to make contributions at the major league level. A total of 13 players were dealt in 3 packages for 18-22 year-old prospects that should fill out our A and AA teams.

The only "name" propsect in the group was Oakland closer Huston Street who will start the season at AAA. Forst winced visibly during the press conference as Campbell repeatedly referred to the prospect as "Hutson" and hoped his owner didn't believe they had acquired Tim Hudson. Campbell wasn't that dumb of course, but he did think they had acquired Octavio Dotel. Street looked a lot more pale than what Campbell thought he looked like after the Beltran trade last year. The only rationale he could come up with is that perhaps Street/Dotel had the Michael Jackson skin disease. In case the symptoms were related, he made a note to keep children away from the locker room.

[seth70liz76]

Bolding does make it easier to read (especially here at work)

As for the humor, it only works if it's not forced. If it fits your style and mood, then it works, but if you start thinking "I have to be funny," then it could get messy.

[QuestGAV]

With the rosters, lineups, rotations, and depth charts set for all 4 levels set, Forst finally settled in to take a 2nd look at his assets. This time around, Forst's focus was on evaluating which prospects were future Nationals stars so the team and it's fans could concentrate on them.

This is the list he compiled:

SS BJ Upton, 20 - Majors
-The team's starting shortstop. He'll need to produce immediately. Watching the teams pine for a scrub like Christian Guzman would be embarassing.

SP Clint Everts, 20, AAA
-Very high expectations rest on his shoulders. He will have to develop into an ace for our team to be playoff competitive.

SP Scott Kazmir, 21, AAA
-The third team in two years for one of baseball's top pitching prospects? Maybe we'll find out something that the Mets and Devil Rays already knew. Maybe he'll join Everts in a Prior/Wood-like 1-2 punch.

CL Huston Street, 21, AAA
-Has all the talent. Can he prove himself in the clutch fast enough to make the roster this year?

MR Chad Cordero, 22 - Majors
-Fantastic stuff, will fill a middle relief role for now, but projects as the eventual setup man for Huston Street.

2b/3b Brendan Harris, 24 - AAA
-Brendan needs to develop some patience and power fast if he expects to displace Jared Sandberg. Mediocre defense and speed.

1b Larry Broadway, 24 - AAA
-Has the ability to hit for contact & power while drawing some walks. Not likely to displace Nick Johnson without alot of maturation, he'll have a better shot if he can learn to play third base.

1b James Loney, 20 - A
-Doesn't have the power or patience we'd really like to see from a corner infielder. Has alot of upside to grow into.

OF Ryan Harvey, 20 - A
-Should develop the kind of pop we like and hit for a decent average. Is a mediocre fielder and has a long way to go. Still, by the time he's 25 there may be room for him.

SP Mike Hinckley, 22 - AA
-Projects as a 4-5 starter at the big league level for us. There are alot of other similar prospects in the organization but behind Everts and Kazmir he seems to be most likely to make good on his talent.

And with talent assembly & assessment completed, the Washington Nationals began to play baseball.

[QuestGAV]

The Nationals season was set to begin on April 5 with a home series vs. the Cubs. Prospects for victory seemed a bit bleak with the Cubs holding the pitching advantage for each matchup.

Game one of the Nationals era proved to be less than spectacular. A 12-2 Cubs win was highlighted by a 5-5 performance by Todd Walker, including 5 runs and 3 RBI as he hit for the cycle. His 3.200 OPS for the day made Baby Jesus cry. Mark Prior threw 122 pitches over 7 innings, giving up only 2 runs on 8 hits and a walk. Much of his production came at the expense of Estaban Loiaza who gave up seven runs over 3 2/3 innings. Termel Sledge's 2-5 with 2 RBIs was the lone "highlight" experienced by the Nationals. We could be in for a long summer folks.

Game 2 saw a much improved performance from the staff and defense with Tomo Ohka and John Patterson combining for 9 innings of one run baseball. Sadly, Carlos Zambrano outpitched Prior and the Cubs blanked the Nationals on 6 hits. Sammy Sosa notched his fifth RBI in the first inning, providing all the spark the Cubs would need.

Apparently the Nationals saw some pitches they liked in game 3 as Kerry Wood was chased out of the game with a lucky number 7 on the board (though only 3 were earned). Scott Williamson couldn't put out the fire as he gave up another 3 in the third inning. The Nationals notched a 10-4 win, sparked by 3 players with 3 RBI apiece.

The next step was a trip to Colorado. The 7-4 loss saw a magnificent performance by chin-Hui Tsao as he gave up 1 run over 8 1/3. Nick Punto and Charles Johnson had 3 RBI apiece and Jared Sandberg hit his 2nd home run of the year.

Jeff Francis and Jimmy Gobble squared off in game 2 of the series. Francis and the Rockies came out on top with an 8-3 win. Not all the news was terrible however, as BJ Upton hit his first home run of the year and drove in all 3 Nationals runs.

Not being the Yankees, we had no choice but to trot out Loiaza again for the final game of the Rockies series. After 4 2/3 innings of one-run, 4 hit ball Loiaza asked out with a sore shoulder. Amazingly enough, we had a 2-1 lead at the time and the lead was held by the bullpen with Luis Ayala's 3 1-hit innings being the backbone of the win. Even the team's 4 errors (including 2 by Jared Sandberg) weren't enough to give the game away as the Nationals improved to 2-4 as they closed out their first week of play.

A horde of players were reassigned or released during this period as clubs worked to get the chaff off their 40-man rosters. Very few of the players entering free agency were even recognizable, nevermind desirable and the Nationals decided to stick with what they had. Carlos Guillen was traded along with two prospects to the Rockies for Joe Kennedy in the week's most intriguing trade.

Though Loiaza's injury wasn't serious, simply a sore shoulder that hopefully will last only a week or so, some other teams were not nearly as lucky. An errant pitch broke the cheekbone of Cubs 3B Aramis Ramirez and he'll be down for 6 weeks. Philadelphia's Randy Wolf also will be out nearly 6 weeks with a strained tricep suffered pitching against Atlanta. While a serious blow to the team, the Phillies received worse news the following day as an X-Ray of Vicente Padilla's shoulder showed a significant bone chip problem. Surgery was scheduled immediately and it is hoped that he will be 100% for next season.

The Oakland Athletics might have been the recipients of the biggest blow of all. Billy Beane's halo dimmed considerably as an MRI showed a torn ligament in the elbow of Barry Zito. The injury came days after Danny Haren, centerpiece of the Mark Mulder trade, was released following the internet distribution of a videotape Haren made involving a donkey and a pool cue. After a week of play, Oakland sits at 2-5 without any members of the B ig Three to bail them out. When asked about their chances to make the playoffs this year, Beane lamented, "Honestly? We're f***ed."

[QuestGAV]

Week 2 of the regular season started with the Nationals taking advantage of the Phillies need for warm bodies to throw in the rotation after the injuries to Wolf and Padilla. Brad Thomas was sent to the Phillies for pitching prospects Gavin Floyd and Francisco Butto. Nationals owner Campbell opined, "With that name, Floyd is destined to be a superstar."

GM David Forst rolled his eyes and added, "His talent and minor league stats were exceptional too. He'll be a guy whose development we'll watch closely. Brad wasn't likely to get many innings here, I'm glad he'll get a chance to make things happen in Philadelphia."

A home series against the Giants was the next order of business for week 2. Six solid innings from Brett Tomko triumphed over 6 weak innings from Tomo Ohka as the Giants won 6-3. The game's most exciting moment was marked by Termel Sledge's ejection for arguing a called 3rd strike in the 8th inning.

Five runs in the first inning of game 2 off Tyler Walker spurred the Nationals to a 9-8 win. Joe Horgan tried hard to cough up the lead but couldn't quite get a third run across the plate to tie the game. Brad Wilkerson went 3-3 with a walk, 2 runs, and 2 RBI to lead the charge.

The Nationals finished the 3 game homestand with a second win, 8-3 over Kirk Rueter whose ERA actually dropped to 14.21 in the loss. Another 3 RBI for Wilkerson keyed the Nationals as they improved to 4-5.

Though the Nationals won the series 2-1, a disturbing trend was noted and seized upon by local media. In just their second series here in Washington the team's average attendance hovered around 25,500. With nearly 20,000 empty seats per game RFK was an echo chamber. Attendance not matching projections would not threaten this year's bottom line given the massive payroll guttting done completed during spring training by Forst. It would however greatly restrict the team's ability to compete down the line. The team's executives began to hope that the DC area would be willing to bond with a scrappy but middle-of-the-road team, because it obviously wasn't love at first sight.

A trip to 2-7 Philadelphia seemed to be in order. Esteban Loiaza stepped up for game one of the series vs... Brad Thomas. Neither would figure into the decision as a 3-run Nationals rally in the 9th sent the game to extra innings. Chad Cordero gave up the winning run in the 12th to give the Phillies a 5-4 win.

Jimmy Gobble dropped to 0-2 in game 2 as Philadelphia won 5-4 again. Jim "Rube" Thome was ejected in the 8th arguing a called third strike as the Phillies evened the team's records at 4-7 heading into the series' rubber match.

The Nationals scored 6 runs off Cory Lidle in the course of an 8-4 victory in game 3. Ryan Church and Jose Vidro had 3 RBI apiece as Church hit his first home run of the season. The offday on Sunday brought the Nationals to the end of week 2.

In other news, Carlos Delgado was signed by the Athletics as they try to cope without Barry Zito. Magglio Ordonez decided to go ring-chasing with the Cardinals on the same day. Hank Blalock was lost for a month by the Rangers with a ruptured tricep tendon. The White Sox were able to extract three strong young players from Pittsburgh for Paul Konerko in the form of Jason Bay, Brad Stiles, and Matt Guillory. Bay will bat cleanup against righties and leadoff against lefties for the White Sox while Stiles and Guillory both have major league talent.

[jaykno14]

I was wondering what roster sets you are using and how did you get it to start in '05?

[TCleary46]

Halofan made a roster set that starts in 2005. This looks great so far, I'll definitley be paying attention. Forst deserves a shot at a GM Spot in real life, he's a baseball genius who is very much like Beane and DePodesta. Its cool that your using him.

[jaykno14]

Do you know where I could get that roster set at?

[QuestGAV]

I'm using Halofan's set as TCleary had guessed. It's pretty solid though I've encountered some oddities. It's certainly served it's purpose here. It was one of the higher threads in the mod section of the forums last time I checked.

As far as Forst goes, it looked like he was essentially next-in-line from looking at the A's organizational chart. And he's also not someone who is particularly well known from my perspective so I could be a bit loose with his personality.

I'm glad people are enjoying this so far. The week of sims per post rate seems to be working for me so far, though the posts are rather dry. I was thinking of adding a report after each week that would cycle monthly with some analysis. IE:

Week 1: Game recaps & our roster & stats analysis
Week 2: Game recaps & our prospect & stats analysis
Week 3: Game recaps & other team prospects & stats analysis
Week 4: Game recaps & standings analysis

Does this make sense? Are there other things you'd rather hear about? The analysis would probably be rather superficial but it'd break up the "Loiaza got shelled 8-4" with a bit of a bigger picture look at the team & league.

[QuestGAV]

Regular Season - Week 3

Week 3 started with the Rockies coming to Washington to challenge the 5-7 Nationals. Tony Armas Jr. improved to 3-0 with a 5-4 win. Four runs in six innings kept Armas' ERA hovering around 6 despite the perfect record, but it was enough to top Ryan Franklin. Brad Wilkerson drove in another 2 runs to push his RBI total to 10.

The Nationals 8-5 win in game 2 of the series was punctuated by Jared Sandberg's 4th home run of the season. Despite his .191 average, the home runs have kept his OPS up around .800. Loiaza pitched 6 1/3 solid innings but didn't get the win as the team trailed 4-1 at the end of the seventh. Shawn Chacon got shelled in the eighth, yielding 4 runs without recording an out. The win improved the Nationals to 7-7 as they sit tied with Florida and New York atop the NL East!

Apparently, the Rockies should have just stayed home. Instead of rebounding in the series final game, Colorado laid down and died as they were held to 3 hits in the Nationals 7-1 win. The Nationals smacked 3 home runs and stand alone atop the NL East with Florida and New York both losing.

The Nationals rode the team bus up the road to Pittsburgh. The mere mention of the word "bus" caused several veteran players to lodge complaints with the player's union. The complaints were withdrawn promptly however after Campbell dropped by a team meeting and explained "You should be happy I don't have money for a plane for a ride to Pittsburgh. Because if I did, I'd have money for better players too and you'd all be looking for jobs. Thank you for your patience."

The speech apparently did not negatively affect morale as the Nationals won the game 1 6-4 behind Claudio Vargas' 2nd victory. Jeromy Burnitz hit a key pinch hit home run and Horgan picked up a five out save, his fifth of the season.

With a 4-3 victory in 11 innings in game 2, the scrappy Nationals extended their winning streak to 6 games despite a blown save by their closer.

Pittsburgh would try to rebound in game 3 with Mark Redman squaring off against Jimmy Gobble whose 9+ ERA thus far was discouraging to say the least. Pittsburgh's inept offense proved to be the cure for his woes though as the Nationals swept a second consecutive series, 5-3. Gobble pitched seven strong innings, yielding only 3 runs and soliciting tears of joy from former owner Timmah! who gave him his first chance to perform.

Gobble offered to drive the bus back down the road to Washington for their home series against the Mets. Coach Frank Robinson thanked him but declined, not wanting the bus to be stopped should a state trooper see what appeared to be a 14 year-old behind the wheel and delay their travels. Sunday's game 1 appeared to be a key game for the Nationals, as a win would drive their early lead in the NL East to 3 games, while a loss would weaken some of the good mojo they had built upon so far. With Victor Zambrano bringing a 1.77 ERA into the game against Loaiza, the task would not be simple.

Loaiza put in another strong performance to earn his first win of the year, giving up only 2 runs on 4 hits through 7 innings. Loaiza helped himself at the plate, going 2-3 with a run scored. Zambrano came back to earth, yielding 10 hits through 5 1/3. A faint chant of "We want Kazmir!" echoed through the crowd in the later innings, as both Mets fans who were dedicated enough to brave the arduous trip all the way from New York to DC let their team's front office know how they felt about last year's trade.

On a key day, the Nationals proved themselves equal to the task, closing out the third week of the regular season with a 12-7 record, an 8-game winning streak, and a 3 game lead in the NL East. The early success seemed to be creating a buzz around the team, as walk-up ticket requests dramatically increased for Nationals games. Sunday's game against the Mets was attended by over 32,000 fans. Sources in the owner's box stated that owner Gavin Campbell cackled maniacally when the attendance was announced, though he quieted quickly after looking around and seeming to realize he was not alone.

In other news, the league's transaction list was once again dominated by horders of mostly unrecognizable names being released, signed, and/or waived. Forst saw value in at least a few of the names, including one Daric Barton as Billy Beane apparently tries to wash the sour taste of the Mulder trade out of his mouth. Forst wasted no time as he signed both Barton and Dan Haren to minor league contracts. "Donkey or no donkey, Haren is a real pitching prospect. We'll just make sure he doesn't have a video camera available. Barton wouldn't really be a prospect if he weren't a catcher. For a catcher, he hits well." Campbell added "Which is sort of like saying, 'for a girl, she punches hard!" Forst didn't stop there though, also signing prospects Ben Fritz, Brandon League, Jorge De La Rosa, and Robert Janssen. Apparently Forst subscribes to the patented "throw poop at the wall" method of acquiring major league talent. The team also laid claim on both Garrett Guzman and Michael Eylward, though it seems likely they will get pulled back.

A few interesting trades occurred also as the Mets shipped Mike Cameron to Cleveland for Jody Gerut. The Mets get a player younger and cheaper than Cameron who won't throw hissy fits because he isn't playing CF and the Indians get a big bat for the middle of their order. Shannon Stewart was shipped to the Cubs for 2b prospect Michael Svetlic and two relievers who will pitch for the Twins only if the team's plane goes down.