Now do you see the value of Carlos Beltran?

sixto · 09-30-2004, 02:06 PM

There were thousands of people - most of them paying SABR dues - who argued that Beltran was overrated and not worth the hassle of obtaining for a few months of service.

Now, with the Astros staring down a possible playoff for the NL Wild Card, the time to contemplate Beltran's value is due.

Hitting .278/.367/.534 as a centerfielder (a position that the average fan misunderstands in terms of average offensive production) for KC, Beltran has modestly upgraded his numbers in Houston (.259/.372/.569) which, if park factors follow observation, means he was hitting marginally better in KC. Either way the difference is insubstantial and Beltran's traditional stats include 38 HR and 104 RBI, the former being a career high already by 9. A peak-type season for a player who is - what do you know! - 27.

Who are some other, cheaper players who have hit as well as Beltran this year? Well let's see. For next to nothing, you can have Brady Clark's .280/.385/.397 - certainly someone who can contribute on a good team. He does the Brewers little good and he would not have provided the Astros with the amount of production they got from Beltran. Jason Michaels? Stats about identical to Clark's.

How about Mark Kotsay? Not dirt cheap, but cheaper than, say, Beltran: .315/.372/.461. A nice player. A definite contributor, especially if you believe the defensive metrics that say he's one of the best. With an OBP figure about identical to Beltran's, though, the battle is between Kotsay's defense and the difference in their SLG.

Even if Kotsay's defense were somehow worth 100 points of SLG, there's still one big problem: the A's have him. They weren't about to deal him. If the Astros felt they had a deficiency in CF, then what they needed to do was not just acquire an OF better than Hidalgo, they needed to acquire an OF better than Hidalgo who was available.

Steve Finley? Not as good as Beltran and hardly a better risk for the long term. Melvin Mora? I don't think he was available. Aaron Rowand? Do you think he's for real? Was he available?

Jason Lane? The question every statistical maven out there is asking is, is Carlos Beltran so much better than Jason Lane that the Astros needed to acquire Beltran? Lane's part-time seasonal resume boasts a .267/.344/.459 line that is not quite as good as his career line of .277/.349/.524.

If Lane, who's 27, could have put up the peak season he could be expected to provide this year in place of Beltran, could he have matched Beltran's performance? Was that a risk worth taking, worth taking more than the risk of trading for Beltran?

It's a very, very big risk. A job-loser of a risk if you're wrong. As usual, the Phillies make a nice comparison. Marlon Byrd, another stathead fave, crashed back to earth this year. Byrd has now played poorly in 3 major-league semesters and very well in the other, the 2nd half of 2003. I wanted very much for Marlon Byrd to be a good, cheap player, but when the season is on the line, leaving your fate up to Marlon Byrd, or Jason Lane, or Nick Swisher, is a huge risk. The A's are, appropriately, going to put this assertion to this test in the next few days and, if they're lucky, weeks.

If the Astros win by a single game, it's pretty safe to say that Beltran was that one-game difference. Over a period of 5, 10 years, his value might not be so obvious. But they don't give out pennants for the best five-year record.

If the Astros don't make the playoffs, what did they really lose? Not their fans (as the Phillies have). And not the chance to get next year's equivalent of Beltran.

There are legitimate fears given his size and injury history, that Beltran will be a .250/.330/.440 hitter by the third or fourth year of his next contract. But the Astros don't have to worry about that unless they sign him. So again I say, why not go for it? Because you can't live without John Buck?

I'd have traded for Carlos Beltran in mid-season and I'd do it again, every time. I'd have given up good prospects to get him because good prospects are just that, prospects. What the Twins have shown is that if you are so dependent upon your prospects that you can't spare one, you simply don't have enough prospects. Of course the Yankees showed this about 8 years ago.

Beltran is not overrated; he's underrated because there are few CFs in the game who can hit like he does. More importantly, though, he was available and the team that got him is better than they were before they did.

There are many ways to build a good team for the long haul, and most of them don't require Carlos Beltran. But if you want to reach the postseason in one given season, acquiring a player of his caliber is the right move and would be, even if he fails to help his team to the postseason. The Phillies called and the Astros raised, and that is why the fans of one team are fighting heart palpitations while fans of the other are talking more about the NHL work stoppage than baseball.

Gastric ReFlux · 09-30-2004, 02:13 PM

well we got the Iggles to talk about too

Skipaway · 09-30-2004, 02:24 PM

So basically, you are trying to point out a common mental blind spot: measuring everything by the same gauge.

Lots of people got crazy with the value/price ideas after Moneyball, but as demonstrated by the Yankees, there are more than one ways to be a consistent successful franchise outside of that measurement.

As we've learned in business classes, it's always silly to judge purely on P/E ratio, or revenues, or profits, or any single measurement how good a company is.

By the way, when people like Rob Neyer said Carlos Beltran is overrated, what they are saying is Beltran is probably going to be overpriced on the FA market. But as lots of people have discussed before, it's not really a bad idea to overpay players on the caliber of Alex Rodriguez, just like people wouldn't mind overpay for Monet paintings in auctions.

sixto · 09-30-2004, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gastric ReFlux

well we got the Iggles to talk about too

Right. I'm counting the days until McNabb goes down and Brad Goebel takes over. On second thought, I don't really feel like talking about that!

Crapshoot · 09-30-2004, 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipaway

So basically, you are trying to point out a common mental blind spot: measuring everything by the same gauge.

Lots of people got crazy with the value/price ideas after Moneyball, but as demonstrated by the Yankees, there are more than one ways to be a consistent successful franchise outside of that measurement.

As we've learned in business classes, it's always silly to judge purely on P/E ratio, or revenues, or profits, or any single measurement how good a company is.

By the way, when people like Rob Neyer said Carlos Beltran is overrated, what they are saying is Beltran is probably going to be overpriced on the FA market. But as lots of people have discussed before, it's not really a bad idea to overpay players on the caliber of Alex Rodriguez, just like people wouldn't mind overpay for Monet paintings in auctions.

Aye- I think Beltran is great- but Vlad is a signficantly better player, and by all accounts, it seems Beltran is going to get more money than that. Beltran has a career OPS + of 106 coming into this season- and his career high is last year, at 126. He is is a good defensive player and an extraordinary base stealer (Which OPS certains fails to account for), but the added effect still makes him something like than ridiculously great. For all of what Beltran brings- Vlad (146 OPS+) is significantly better. I think Carlos well end up as Jeter lite- a very very good player, but paid well more than what he deserves.

Gastric ReFlux · 09-30-2004, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixto

Right. I'm counting the days until McNabb goes down and Brad Goebel takes over. On second thought, I don't really feel like talking about that!

Have faith, have hope that maybe fate will finally shine on Philly.

I appreciate your arguments regarding Beltran, although I fear in the Phillies case he wouldn't have made a difference. The pitching collapsed on us, although I will concede that Beltran could have been a more effective pitcher than Paul Byrd.

asamford · 09-30-2004, 02:34 PM

i literally fell asleep at my desk while reading this post.

sixto · 09-30-2004, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asamford

i literally fell asleep at my desk while reading this post.

I think you are looking for the ADHD thread.

benchwarmer · 09-30-2004, 02:40 PM

Beltran is a great player. I dont think a thread needs to be started to state this.

And i agree, Beltran will be overated next season. After he starts playing for a record setting contract.

sixto · 09-30-2004, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by benchwarmer

Beltran is a great player. I dont think a thread needs to be started to state this.

Huh. And here I didn't think we needed another dozen Lindsay Lohan threads.

Dagrims · 09-30-2004, 02:46 PM

Beltran for NL MVP.

SoxWin · 09-30-2004, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by benchwarmer

Beltran is a great player. I dont think a thread needs to be started to state this.

And i agree, Beltran will be overated next season. After he starts playing for a record setting contract.

He's playing for the big contract right now

cknox0723 · 09-30-2004, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixtoes

Steve Finley? Not as good as Beltran and hardly a better risk for the long term.

That's an awful quick little dismissal of Finley, who was having a fine year, last I checked. Remember that the price to acquire him was a bit lower, too. (Catcher prospect Koyie Hill and a pitching prospect, IIRC)

The point about long term -- can't argue. But if Beltran signs elsewhere, doesn't his long term value become irrelevant for Houston?

If Beltran is underrated, so too is Steve Finley. I'd run his numbers, but I've got to run. Thanks for your post, though - a good read.

rem · 09-30-2004, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixto

So again I say, why not go for it? Because you can't live without John Buck?

Dotel too. And you should probably include Hidalgo too...

JDOldSchool · 09-30-2004, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixto

Who are some other, cheaper players who have hit as well as Beltran this year?

Why did you neglect Aaron Rowand? He's got the third highest OPS among centerfielders. The only two guys with a higher OPS are Edmonds and Beltran. Rowand's defense might be the best in the American League among CFs (note to ignorant Torii Hunter fans: I'm just going by tangotiger's numbers, not just subjectivity).

Rowand makes just $340,000 this season. While Beltran's production has been slightly better, it certainly isn't $4 million better (and DEFINITELY not the $15 million that Beltran will want in the offseason). He's 8th in the AL in average and has 62 extra base hits and Ozzie Guillen didn't even play him regularly until the end of May (mostly because Ozzie is easily one of the worst managers I've ever seen).

And Rowand is just getting better and better. Barring injury, he'll be an All Star for years to come.

rem · 09-30-2004, 05:18 PM

Previous History.

Skipaway · 10-12-2004, 01:10 AM

A new study on baseballprospectus showed that premium players are not really paid premium. Everyone seemed to be paid in a linear price/value model.

Quote:

A player's salary in the first year of a new contract after filing for free agency is generally equal to about .94 * (player's salary last year) + $17,500 * (VORP last year).

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=3547

AnotherAlias · 10-12-2004, 07:32 AM

I see the value of Beltran, and I can't wait until the Cubs sign him in the off-season.

Gastric ReFlux · 10-14-2004, 09:51 AM

Ahh, last night, when I was awake and the Yanks-Sox went to commercial, I flipped to the Fox channel carrying the Cards-Astros, just in time to see Beltran mash his 5th post-season home run.

Thank you, Ed Wade. We loved Paul Byrd and those trade deadline middle relievers that carried Philly deep into October.

09-30-2004, 02:06 PM	#1
sixto Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 2,271	Now do you see the value of Carlos Beltran? There were thousands of people - most of them paying SABR dues - who argued that Beltran was overrated and not worth the hassle of obtaining for a few months of service. Now, with the Astros staring down a possible playoff for the NL Wild Card, the time to contemplate Beltran's value is due. Hitting .278/.367/.534 as a centerfielder (a position that the average fan misunderstands in terms of average offensive production) for KC, Beltran has modestly upgraded his numbers in Houston (.259/.372/.569) which, if park factors follow observation, means he was hitting marginally better in KC. Either way the difference is insubstantial and Beltran's traditional stats include 38 HR and 104 RBI, the former being a career high already by 9. A peak-type season for a player who is - what do you know! - 27. Who are some other, cheaper players who have hit as well as Beltran this year? Well let's see. For next to nothing, you can have Brady Clark's .280/.385/.397 - certainly someone who can contribute on a good team. He does the Brewers little good and he would not have provided the Astros with the amount of production they got from Beltran. Jason Michaels? Stats about identical to Clark's. How about Mark Kotsay? Not dirt cheap, but cheaper than, say, Beltran: .315/.372/.461. A nice player. A definite contributor, especially if you believe the defensive metrics that say he's one of the best. With an OBP figure about identical to Beltran's, though, the battle is between Kotsay's defense and the difference in their SLG. Even if Kotsay's defense were somehow worth 100 points of SLG, there's still one big problem: the A's have him. They weren't about to deal him. If the Astros felt they had a deficiency in CF, then what they needed to do was not just acquire an OF better than Hidalgo, they needed to acquire an OF better than Hidalgo who was available. Steve Finley? Not as good as Beltran and hardly a better risk for the long term. Melvin Mora? I don't think he was available. Aaron Rowand? Do you think he's for real? Was he available? Jason Lane? The question every statistical maven out there is asking is, is Carlos Beltran so much better than Jason Lane that the Astros needed to acquire Beltran? Lane's part-time seasonal resume boasts a .267/.344/.459 line that is not quite as good as his career line of .277/.349/.524. If Lane, who's 27, could have put up the peak season he could be expected to provide this year in place of Beltran, could he have matched Beltran's performance? Was that a risk worth taking, worth taking more than the risk of trading for Beltran? It's a very, very big risk. A job-loser of a risk if you're wrong. As usual, the Phillies make a nice comparison. Marlon Byrd, another stathead fave, crashed back to earth this year. Byrd has now played poorly in 3 major-league semesters and very well in the other, the 2nd half of 2003. I wanted very much for Marlon Byrd to be a good, cheap player, but when the season is on the line, leaving your fate up to Marlon Byrd, or Jason Lane, or Nick Swisher, is a huge risk. The A's are, appropriately, going to put this assertion to this test in the next few days and, if they're lucky, weeks. If the Astros win by a single game, it's pretty safe to say that Beltran was that one-game difference. Over a period of 5, 10 years, his value might not be so obvious. But they don't give out pennants for the best five-year record. If the Astros don't make the playoffs, what did they really lose? Not their fans (as the Phillies have). And not the chance to get next year's equivalent of Beltran. There are legitimate fears given his size and injury history, that Beltran will be a .250/.330/.440 hitter by the third or fourth year of his next contract. But the Astros don't have to worry about that unless they sign him. So again I say, why not go for it? Because you can't live without John Buck? I'd have traded for Carlos Beltran in mid-season and I'd do it again, every time. I'd have given up good prospects to get him because good prospects are just that, prospects. What the Twins have shown is that if you are so dependent upon your prospects that you can't spare one, you simply don't have enough prospects. Of course the Yankees showed this about 8 years ago. Beltran is not overrated; he's underrated because there are few CFs in the game who can hit like he does. More importantly, though, he was available and the team that got him is better than they were before they did. There are many ways to build a good team for the long haul, and most of them don't require Carlos Beltran. But if you want to reach the postseason in one given season, acquiring a player of his caliber is the right move and would be, even if he fails to help his team to the postseason. The Phillies called and the Astros raised, and that is why the fans of one team are fighting heart palpitations while fans of the other are talking more about the NHL work stoppage than baseball.

09-30-2004, 02:24 PM	#3
Skipaway Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Where you live Posts: 11,017	So basically, you are trying to point out a common mental blind spot: measuring everything by the same gauge. Lots of people got crazy with the value/price ideas after Moneyball, but as demonstrated by the Yankees, there are more than one ways to be a consistent successful franchise outside of that measurement. As we've learned in business classes, it's always silly to judge purely on P/E ratio, or revenues, or profits, or any single measurement how good a company is. By the way, when people like Rob Neyer said Carlos Beltran is overrated, what they are saying is Beltran is probably going to be overpriced on the FA market. But as lots of people have discussed before, it's not really a bad idea to overpay players on the caliber of Alex Rodriguez, just like people wouldn't mind overpay for Monet paintings in auctions. __________________ Jonathan Haidt: Moral reasoning is really just a servant masquerading as a high priest.

09-30-2004, 02:46 PM	#11
Dagrims Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Orlando, FL Posts: 3,827	Beltran for NL MVP. __________________ "Read books, get brain."

09-30-2004, 05:18 PM	#16
rem Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: College Park, Md. Posts: 5,024	Previous History. __________________ OTBA: Washington Filibusters CLBR: Minnesota Twins 2005 Winner of LL's Pick the Loser Contest! - 15-0

09-30-2004, 02:13 PM	#2
Gastric ReFlux Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Member #3409 Posts: 8,350	well we got the Iggles to talk about too

09-30-2004, 02:34 PM	#7
asamford Banned Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Snellville, Georgia Posts: 1,769	i literally fell asleep at my desk while reading this post.

09-30-2004, 02:40 PM	#9
benchwarmer Banned Join Date: May 2004 Location: Red Sox Nation Posts: 1,461	Beltran is a great player. I dont think a thread needs to be started to state this. And i agree, Beltran will be overated next season. After he starts playing for a record setting contract.

10-12-2004, 07:32 AM	#18
AnotherAlias Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: I'm back...for now Posts: 4,190	I see the value of Beltran, and I can't wait until the Cubs sign him in the off-season.

10-14-2004, 09:51 AM	#19
Gastric ReFlux Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Member #3409 Posts: 8,350	Ahh, last night, when I was awake and the Yanks-Sox went to commercial, I flipped to the Fox channel carrying the Cards-Astros, just in time to see Beltran mash his 5th post-season home run. Thank you, Ed Wade. We loved Paul Byrd and those trade deadline middle relievers that carried Philly deep into October.