What will the next OBP be?

mlyons · 07-21-2004, 10:38 PM

As we all know, for many years, on-base percentage was an "undervalued" stat, also known as a stat that was essentially ignored by most baseball watchers. As we all also know, recently a number of enterprising GMs and other baseball people (most notably Billy Beane and Bill James) have realized that this stat is a tremendous indicator of a player's productivity and, by seeking out players with high OBP's and without other flashy stats, they could find bargain rate-players to build a team with. Here's the problem. OBP now no longer really qualifies as an undervalued statistic. More and more teams are emphasizing patience at the plate and drawing walks over trying to get high batting averages. In fact, the team that seems to emphasize OBP over average the most right now seems to be the Yankees (see: Giambi, Williams, Matsui, Posada, etc.). "Undervalued" and "Yankees" are mutually exclusive concepts, so I doubt many GM's are going to find hidden gems by going after high OBP guys any more. This leads (finally) to my point: what do you think the next "undervalued" statistic will be? Will it be something esoteric (a la VORP) or it will it be a very basic statistic that isn't really being paid attention to right now (like doubles)? Any ideas?

Gastric ReFlux · 07-21-2004, 10:39 PM

Quality Saves.

gmo · 07-21-2004, 10:45 PM

Interesting question...

Perhaps BB/9, going the opposite direction from hitters that walk to pitchers that don't

Skipaway · 07-21-2004, 11:07 PM

I think teams are picking up new ideas much faster these days, so I doubt anything easily accessible could be the next OBP.

For MLB veterans, I think more detailed study in play by play data could be the next big thing. Teams already know about analyzing pitch location and stuff, and play by play defense analysis is kind of trendy these days? Billy Beane got some super secret way of evaluating defense, didn't he?

I also believe sports dynamics and physiology could play a much bigger role. We already know that pure speed doesn't mean much on the baseball field, but there got to be ways to measure "baseball speed" correctly? There got to be some better test for us to know if a prospect might develop better bat speed? better batting eyes? Some better way to practice them?

MannyTrillo · 07-21-2004, 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gastric ReFlux

Quality Saves.

I think quality saves in the clutch would be more important.

EDIT- Just realized that quality saves are always in the clutch, so I agree with GR.

Jason Moyer · 07-21-2004, 11:49 PM

RBI

akw4572 · 07-22-2004, 12:05 AM

Game winning RBI

UngratefulDead · 07-22-2004, 12:14 AM

Bah.. RBIs are circumstantial, just another way for players to get themselves overvalued.

07-22-2004, 12:19 AM

I would imagine that DIPS will soon catch on with the public, so I'm guessing the whole plethora of pheripherals that come with that territory (K/9, BB/9, HR/9, dERA, BABIP, etc.)

MannyTrillo · 07-22-2004, 02:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by akw4572

Game winning RBI

How about game winning RBI in the clutch?

EDIT- I just realized that all game winning RBI are in the clutch so I agree with akw.

EDIT- Actually I just realized that no they aren't. So, game winning RBI in the clutch is my suggestion.

LivnLegend · 07-22-2004, 02:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MannyTrillo

How about game winning RBI in the clutch?

EDIT- I just realized that all game winning RBI are in the clutch so I agree with akw.

EDIT- Actually I just realized that no they aren't. So, game winning RBI in the clutch is my suggestion.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

PoTD

KILLERBS24 · 07-22-2004, 03:50 AM

All the big statistical advances will be on the defensive side of the ball. Ultimately working towards a time where it will be easy to determine a players overall worth compared to overall replacement level(Offense + Defense= +/-). Basically a value similar to a more advanced plus minus like in hockey. Does the defense of the guy hitting .240 really make up for his offense, someday it will be very easy to tell, he'll either be plus or minus(plus his defense makes up for it or minus his defense doesn't), no more subjective guesses.

Fool Inc. · 07-22-2004, 04:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KILLERBS24

All the big statistical advances will be on the defensive side of the ball. Ultimately working towards a time where it will be easy to determine a players overall worth compared to overall replacement level(Offense + Defense= +/-). Basically a value similar to a more advanced plus minus like in hockey. Does the defense of the guy hitting .240 really make up for his offense, someday it will be very easy to tell, he'll either be plus or minus(plus his defense makes up for it or minus his defense doesn't), no more subjective guesses.

I agree that it's going to come from the defensive side. Ouch someone figures how to make a really good defensive stat comparable to OPS then the team who uses it the best/first will be the next Billy Beane/A's.

Joshv02 · 07-22-2004, 08:24 AM

There isn't yet an efficient market for OBP. Witness Mark Bellhorn.

Shortstop range is generally overated in the market; other defensive attributes (first base range; third base arm; etc.) will catch up in time.

As some team (anyone know which?) has already signed MGL (Mitchell Lichtman) to be a consultant, I assume new defensive metrics (like his UZR) will be in vogue. Apparently, the A's have had a set of proprietary defensive metrics (as well as offesnive) for a number of years now.

KurtBevacqua · 07-22-2004, 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gastric ReFlux

Quality Saves.

I'd take this a step further and say someone somewhere is going to figure a way to quantify quality performance by a reliever in any clutch situation, not just saves.

Here's what I define by a clutch situation:
7th inning or later
a) Tying run is in scoring position
b) Winning run is either on base or at bat

A quality performance is the tying or winning run in question never scores. I think IRS and IRS% are also very good indicators of this and may get considerably more emphasis in time.

Also, we are already seeing it grow, but I think WHIP will replace ERA as the benchmark number to evaluate a pitcher's performance.

Finally, why not use SLG% and OPS% against pitchers as a tool? I have yet to see any significant use of those numbers. I think those would be very DIPS friendly measurements (but in these you rightfully include the impact of homeruns).

dsvitak · 07-22-2004, 10:47 AM

Zone rating, or something like it. To be able to quantify more accurately the defensive contributions of a player.

And, as was mentioned before, to provide a statistical mechanism for ranking players.

Bill James tried to do this with his offensive W-L records, although I am not convinced he did a perfectly accurate job of it.

I CAN say, that in OOTP6, defense matters. I will sacrifice offense for a better fielder, within reason.

Gastric ReFlux · 07-22-2004, 11:09 AM

Quality Saves is the latest creation from the Elias Sports Bureau:

Quote:

#

You don't have to be Rollie Fingers to know that not all saves are created equal. But in the old saves column, there's not a whit of difference between coming into a one-run game and striking out the side and coming into a three-run game and giving up two runs on six hits, then collecting your save on a bases-loaded line drive.

So the big question is: How many of Gagne's saves were cheapies and how many were of the rarified break-a-sweat variety?

Well, of Gagne's 84 saves, he entered the game with a one-run lead 38 times, a two-run lead 17 times and a lead of three or more 29 times. So that tells us something. But we need to know more.

So the Elias Sports Bureau has devised a formula for something called a "Quality Save." To earn a Quality Save, a pitcher needs to:

# Earn a save in a game in which the tying run was in scoring position when he entered.

# (And/or) save a game in which he protected a one-run lead for at least one inning.

And if you use that definition, it's clear Gagne didn't just earn the most saves in baseball during his streak. He also earned the toughest.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/column...son&id=1835274

Skipaway · 07-22-2004, 11:14 AM

If defense is that obvious a choice, it definitely won't be the next undervalued attribute.

Especially with the A's already putting so much value on defense, and those rich teams in Boston and Los Angeles following sabermetrics so closely.

ctorg · 07-22-2004, 12:02 PM

Cap size. You heard it here first.

draven085 · 07-22-2004, 12:10 PM

I think that better understanding and exploiting the relationship between pitchers and hitters of opposite handedness could be the next seriously undervalued attribute in baseball. I, for one, believe that there are ways that a pitcher can neutralize a batter's platoon advantage without losing the platoon advantage he has over batters of the same handedness. I think this could have a significant impact on the way pitchers are developed, and on how and what they throw.

07-21-2004, 10:38 PM	#1
mlyons Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 3,725	What will the next OBP be? As we all know, for many years, on-base percentage was an "undervalued" stat, also known as a stat that was essentially ignored by most baseball watchers. As we all also know, recently a number of enterprising GMs and other baseball people (most notably Billy Beane and Bill James) have realized that this stat is a tremendous indicator of a player's productivity and, by seeking out players with high OBP's and without other flashy stats, they could find bargain rate-players to build a team with. Here's the problem. OBP now no longer really qualifies as an undervalued statistic. More and more teams are emphasizing patience at the plate and drawing walks over trying to get high batting averages. In fact, the team that seems to emphasize OBP over average the most right now seems to be the Yankees (see: Giambi, Williams, Matsui, Posada, etc.). "Undervalued" and "Yankees" are mutually exclusive concepts, so I doubt many GM's are going to find hidden gems by going after high OBP guys any more. This leads (finally) to my point: what do you think the next "undervalued" statistic will be? Will it be something esoteric (a la VORP) or it will it be a very basic statistic that isn't really being paid attention to right now (like doubles)? Any ideas? __________________ Things can always be worse.

07-21-2004, 11:07 PM	#4
Skipaway Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Where you live Posts: 11,017	I think teams are picking up new ideas much faster these days, so I doubt anything easily accessible could be the next OBP. For MLB veterans, I think more detailed study in play by play data could be the next big thing. Teams already know about analyzing pitch location and stuff, and play by play defense analysis is kind of trendy these days? Billy Beane got some super secret way of evaluating defense, didn't he? I also believe sports dynamics and physiology could play a much bigger role. We already know that pure speed doesn't mean much on the baseball field, but there got to be ways to measure "baseball speed" correctly? There got to be some better test for us to know if a prospect might develop better bat speed? better batting eyes? Some better way to practice them? __________________ Jonathan Haidt: Moral reasoning is really just a servant masquerading as a high priest.

07-21-2004, 11:49 PM	#6
Jason Moyer Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 5,112	RBI __________________ "I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech

07-22-2004, 08:24 AM	#14
Joshv02 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: , " Posts: 3,082	There isn't yet an efficient market for OBP. Witness Mark Bellhorn. Shortstop range is generally overated in the market; other defensive attributes (first base range; third base arm; etc.) will catch up in time. As some team (anyone know which?) has already signed MGL (Mitchell Lichtman) to be a consultant, I assume new defensive metrics (like his UZR) will be in vogue. Apparently, the A's have had a set of proprietary defensive metrics (as well as offesnive) for a number of years now. __________________ Brookline Maccabees. RIP

07-22-2004, 11:14 AM	#18
Skipaway Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Where you live Posts: 11,017	If defense is that obvious a choice, it definitely won't be the next undervalued attribute. Especially with the A's already putting so much value on defense, and those rich teams in Boston and Los Angeles following sabermetrics so closely. __________________ Jonathan Haidt: Moral reasoning is really just a servant masquerading as a high priest.

07-21-2004, 10:39 PM	#2
Gastric ReFlux Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Member #3409 Posts: 8,350	Quality Saves.

07-21-2004, 10:45 PM	#3
gmo Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: Longmont, CO Posts: 3,472	Interesting question... Perhaps BB/9, going the opposite direction from hitters that walk to pitchers that don't

07-22-2004, 12:05 AM	#7
akw4572 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Kentucky Posts: 2,601	Game winning RBI

07-22-2004, 12:14 AM	#8
UngratefulDead Banned Join Date: May 2004 Location: Bay Area Posts: 3,415	Bah.. RBIs are circumstantial, just another way for players to get themselves overvalued.

07-22-2004, 12:19 AM	#9
Yyzlin Guest Posts: n/a	I would imagine that DIPS will soon catch on with the public, so I'm guessing the whole plethora of pheripherals that come with that territory (K/9, BB/9, HR/9, dERA, BABIP, etc.)

07-22-2004, 03:50 AM	#12
KILLERBS24 All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 938	All the big statistical advances will be on the defensive side of the ball. Ultimately working towards a time where it will be easy to determine a players overall worth compared to overall replacement level(Offense + Defense= +/-). Basically a value similar to a more advanced plus minus like in hockey. Does the defense of the guy hitting .240 really make up for his offense, someday it will be very easy to tell, he'll either be plus or minus(plus his defense makes up for it or minus his defense doesn't), no more subjective guesses.

07-22-2004, 10:47 AM	#16
dsvitak Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 5,451	Zone rating, or something like it. To be able to quantify more accurately the defensive contributions of a player. And, as was mentioned before, to provide a statistical mechanism for ranking players. Bill James tried to do this with his offensive W-L records, although I am not convinced he did a perfectly accurate job of it. I CAN say, that in OOTP6, defense matters. I will sacrifice offense for a better fielder, within reason.

07-22-2004, 12:02 PM	#19
ctorg Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Queens, NY Posts: 9,848	Cap size. You heard it here first. __________________ My music "When the trees blow back and forth, that's what makes the wind." - Steven Wright Fjord emena pancreas thorax fornicate marmalade morpheme proteolysis smaxa cabana offal srue vitriol grope hallelujah lentils

07-22-2004, 12:10 PM	#20
draven085 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: New Jersey Posts: 2,074	I think that better understanding and exploiting the relationship between pitchers and hitters of opposite handedness could be the next seriously undervalued attribute in baseball. I, for one, believe that there are ways that a pitcher can neutralize a batter's platoon advantage without losing the platoon advantage he has over batters of the same handedness. I think this could have a significant impact on the way pitchers are developed, and on how and what they throw.