Accurate MLB 2003 League Setup Tweaks....Markus!!! Some Issues...Please Read!!!

Matter2003 · 07-11-2004, 01:07 PM

OK...it appears that there is an unknown variable that is causing extra AB's during the season...Nothing I have checked adequately explains the extra 700-2000 AB's each season. MLB AB's range from 165,562-167,290 since the 30 team league was incorporated(an average of 166,682 per season). However, OOTP's AB's are almost always around 167,600 as their lowest bound, and can range up to almost 169,000. While the lower bound is close to MLB's upper bound, OOTP's upper bound is WAY out to lunch....BB's, HBP's, Sacrifices and Innings Played are all extremely close to 2003 MLB totals(within 10-30).

That being said, here is an excellent league setup for those of you wanting accurate stats based on recent years:

AB: 154300(MLB: 166737/OOTP: 167668)
H: 43650(MLB: 44057/OOTP: 44168)
2B: 7815(MLB: 8827/OOTP: 8876)
3B: 1123(MLB: 934/OOTP: 951)
HR: 4865(MLB: 5207/OOTP: 5287)
BB: 15200(MLB: 15889/OOTP: 15863)
HBP: 1325(MLB: 1849/OOTP: 1837)
K: 25800(MLB: 30801/OOTP: 30243)
BABIP: .297

Edit Era Settings: SB set to Not So Often
Hit and Run set to Not so Often
Bunting set to Often

Only known issues:

1) Still generating anywhere from 700-2000 AB's too many for the season...I have been able to find no explanation for this. Total Innings are extremely close(43328.1 in MLB vs 43364.1 in OOTP). This results in a minisucle descrepency of 3.848242 AB/Inning in MLB vs. 3.866516 AB/Inning in OOTP.
(An extra .018275 AB per ining in OOTP---however multiplied out over the total innings during the season this can create some significant extra AB's...)

2) There are too many sacrifice bunts and not enough sacrifice flies(about 300 too many bunts and 300 too few flies). However, with bunting set to often, they even themselves out. In MLB there were 2962 sacrifices, simmed results were 2972.

3) Teams are still a little too SB happy on "Not-So-Often", but it is much better than "Seldom", which caused the totals to be almost 1,000 off from their MLB couterparts...perhaps editing a few of the steal-happy team strategies would tone this down to appropriate levels(2768 SB's vs. 2573 in MLB)

4) There are an Astounding 10,000 more TC's(193,101 to 183,603 in MLB), and almost 500 more errors(3609 to 3171 in MLB) than in MLB but the FPCT ends up being about the same(actually slightly lower--.9813 vs .9827)...have no clue in how to reduce total chances...

Try it out and let me know what ya think...

Matter2003

Ben E Lou · 07-11-2004, 02:47 PM

Why should Markus set up league totals for 2003 when the default setting is 1980-2003? If you want this to be taken seriously for the default settings, then it seems that the stats should be compared to the averages from 1980-2003, properly pro-rated during the strike years, and further pro-rated for the seasons in which there were less than 30 teams.

Matter2003 · 07-11-2004, 02:54 PM

I'm not asking him to set up league totals for 2003....

I'm presenting some issues...maybe the solution is to split it from 1980-1990 and 1991-2004 or something like that....however I still cannot believe that in 1980 there would have been an additional 10,000 Total Chances....

Perhaps the different variances need to be a little closer together....the difference between seldom and not so often on SB's was over 1300....

Matter2003

Ben E Lou · 07-11-2004, 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matter2003

I'm not asking him to set up league totals for 2003....

I'm presenting some issues...maybe the solution is to split it from 1980-1990 and 1991-2004 or something like that....however I still cannot believe that in 1980 there would have been an additional 10,000 Total Chances....

Perhaps the different variances need to be a little closer together....the difference between seldom and not so often on SB's was over 1300....

Matter2003

That's fine, but presenting only 2003 stats as "evidence" of problems with the engine doesn't work. That's not to say that I don't think there are problems with the engine--clearly there are. However, by comparing to 2003, and by presenting stat issues that are pretty much meaningless to the vast majority of OOTPers (total AB's and total chances), you come across as wanting DMB-type results--and OOTP neither claims nor attempts to be modeled in such a fashion.

Matter2003 · 07-11-2004, 03:05 PM

I guess what I am trying to say is that if we are able to edit things and tweak things to produce results, we should have the ability to edit them to the point that we are able to get near perfect results based on ANY era of baseball we choose to model our seasons after...

Now for the most part the main categories can be adjusted to near perfect proportions, and this is great...

I am just bringing up some issues on things that I have not been able to adequately adjust, and this probably would carry over to virtually anyone attempting to model their league after a particular season or era...

I am not presenting evidence of "problems" so much as I am presenting things that need to be more editable by us....at least that is the way I intended it to come across...

Matter2003

Ben E Lou · 07-11-2004, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matter2003

I guess what I am trying to say is that if we are able to edit things and tweak things to produce results, we should have the ability to edit them to the point that we are able to get near perfect results based on ANY era of baseball we choose to model our seasons after...

Fair enough to think that, but I'm just not sure it is a realistic expectation. With OOTP's ability to tweak and customize (too much so, in my opinion), Markus could get bogged down forever in making everyone's pet tweaks work better for them. That's all I'm saying. He has a finite amount of time for tweaking/new features/bug correcting/updating ITP/starting on OOTP7/etc.

Kett · 07-11-2004, 03:46 PM

I don't understand why you care about a .5% difference in total atbats, when with random variance, homeruns proves to be almost 2% off.

Carlton · 07-11-2004, 04:01 PM

I can honestly say that with today's baseball, maybe you have too many AB's with your era settings....

Hit and run, SB and bunting should be seldom

Matter2003 · 07-11-2004, 08:06 PM

Carlton...I am sorry, but from my testing that is not correct...

Using the seldom setting for SB's results in having 1000 SB's less than what there should be...bunting should be set to "often" to make up for the fact that there are not enough sac flies(about 300 short of what it should be). With this setting the combined sac bunts and sac flies are within 10 of the MLB totals...

Also there is no way to actually edit the number of AB's...

Matter2003

statfreak · 07-11-2004, 08:24 PM

being a bit of a stat enthusiast myself, I can understand your desire to get near perfect results. I don't; however, see any problem with the stats generated by OOTP. Everything is as realistic as can be expected given the customizeability of the game.

Skydog - OOTP needs more customization, not less!

Anonymous Ghost · 07-11-2004, 08:43 PM

Wow, I for one sure hope Markus doesn't give a ~1.0% variance in ABs a second thought. I know that I sure won't.

Matter2003 · 07-11-2004, 09:47 PM

Yeah, I have to give some props to the OOTP engine...and especially to all the customization possible...just wish there was an ability to increase or decrease certain things that we can't now...

Matter2003

Anonymous Ghost · 07-11-2004, 10:04 PM

Okay, I've given a second thought.

One thing that you could try is to lower the baserunning instincts of your players. Export the General Ratings file and edit everyone's instincts done 25%. This will lead to more baserunning outs being created, which will lower ABs without directly impacting anything else. See if that can give more satisfactory numbers.

07-11-2004, 01:07 PM	#1
Matter2003 All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: In the vicinity of Buffalo,NY Posts: 1,634	Accurate MLB 2003 League Setup Tweaks....Markus!!! Some Issues...Please Read!!! OK...it appears that there is an unknown variable that is causing extra AB's during the season...Nothing I have checked adequately explains the extra 700-2000 AB's each season. MLB AB's range from 165,562-167,290 since the 30 team league was incorporated(an average of 166,682 per season). However, OOTP's AB's are almost always around 167,600 as their lowest bound, and can range up to almost 169,000. While the lower bound is close to MLB's upper bound, OOTP's upper bound is WAY out to lunch....BB's, HBP's, Sacrifices and Innings Played are all extremely close to 2003 MLB totals(within 10-30). That being said, here is an excellent league setup for those of you wanting accurate stats based on recent years: AB: 154300(MLB: 166737/OOTP: 167668) H: 43650(MLB: 44057/OOTP: 44168) 2B: 7815(MLB: 8827/OOTP: 8876) 3B: 1123(MLB: 934/OOTP: 951) HR: 4865(MLB: 5207/OOTP: 5287) BB: 15200(MLB: 15889/OOTP: 15863) HBP: 1325(MLB: 1849/OOTP: 1837) K: 25800(MLB: 30801/OOTP: 30243) BABIP: .297 Edit Era Settings: SB set to Not So Often Hit and Run set to Not so Often Bunting set to Often Only known issues: 1) Still generating anywhere from 700-2000 AB's too many for the season...I have been able to find no explanation for this. Total Innings are extremely close(43328.1 in MLB vs 43364.1 in OOTP). This results in a minisucle descrepency of 3.848242 AB/Inning in MLB vs. 3.866516 AB/Inning in OOTP. (An extra .018275 AB per ining in OOTP---however multiplied out over the total innings during the season this can create some significant extra AB's...) 2) There are too many sacrifice bunts and not enough sacrifice flies(about 300 too many bunts and 300 too few flies). However, with bunting set to often, they even themselves out. In MLB there were 2962 sacrifices, simmed results were 2972. 3) Teams are still a little too SB happy on "Not-So-Often", but it is much better than "Seldom", which caused the totals to be almost 1,000 off from their MLB couterparts...perhaps editing a few of the steal-happy team strategies would tone this down to appropriate levels(2768 SB's vs. 2573 in MLB) 4) There are an Astounding 10,000 more TC's(193,101 to 183,603 in MLB), and almost 500 more errors(3609 to 3171 in MLB) than in MLB but the FPCT ends up being about the same(actually slightly lower--.9813 vs .9827)...have no clue in how to reduce total chances... Try it out and let me know what ya think... Matter2003

07-11-2004, 02:47 PM	#2
Ben E Lou Front Office Football Central Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Souf Cackilacky Posts: 1,762	Why should Markus set up league totals for 2003 when the default setting is 1980-2003? If you want this to be taken seriously for the default settings, then it seems that the stats should be compared to the averages from 1980-2003, properly pro-rated during the strike years, and further pro-rated for the seasons in which there were less than 30 teams. Last edited by Ben E Lou; 07-11-2004 at 02:51 PM.

07-11-2004, 08:24 PM	#10
statfreak Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Milwaukee, WI Posts: 2,434	being a bit of a stat enthusiast myself, I can understand your desire to get near perfect results. I don't; however, see any problem with the stats generated by OOTP. Everything is as realistic as can be expected given the customizeability of the game. Skydog - OOTP needs more customization, not less! __________________ Roll out the barrel!

07-11-2004, 08:43 PM	#11
Anonymous Ghost All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 751	Wow, I for one sure hope Markus doesn't give a ~1.0% variance in ABs a second thought. I know that I sure won't. Last edited by Anonymous Ghost; 07-11-2004 at 08:58 PM.

07-11-2004, 02:54 PM	#3
Matter2003 All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: In the vicinity of Buffalo,NY Posts: 1,634	I'm not asking him to set up league totals for 2003.... I'm presenting some issues...maybe the solution is to split it from 1980-1990 and 1991-2004 or something like that....however I still cannot believe that in 1980 there would have been an additional 10,000 Total Chances.... Perhaps the different variances need to be a little closer together....the difference between seldom and not so often on SB's was over 1300.... Matter2003

07-11-2004, 03:05 PM	#5
Matter2003 All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: In the vicinity of Buffalo,NY Posts: 1,634	I guess what I am trying to say is that if we are able to edit things and tweak things to produce results, we should have the ability to edit them to the point that we are able to get near perfect results based on ANY era of baseball we choose to model our seasons after... Now for the most part the main categories can be adjusted to near perfect proportions, and this is great... I am just bringing up some issues on things that I have not been able to adequately adjust, and this probably would carry over to virtually anyone attempting to model their league after a particular season or era... I am not presenting evidence of "problems" so much as I am presenting things that need to be more editable by us....at least that is the way I intended it to come across... Matter2003

07-11-2004, 03:46 PM	#7
Kett Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 77	I don't understand why you care about a .5% difference in total atbats, when with random variance, homeruns proves to be almost 2% off.

07-11-2004, 04:01 PM	#8
Carlton Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 3,765	I can honestly say that with today's baseball, maybe you have too many AB's with your era settings.... Hit and run, SB and bunting should be seldom

07-11-2004, 08:06 PM	#9
Matter2003 All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: In the vicinity of Buffalo,NY Posts: 1,634	Carlton...I am sorry, but from my testing that is not correct... Using the seldom setting for SB's results in having 1000 SB's less than what there should be...bunting should be set to "often" to make up for the fact that there are not enough sac flies(about 300 short of what it should be). With this setting the combined sac bunts and sac flies are within 10 of the MLB totals... Also there is no way to actually edit the number of AB's... Matter2003

07-11-2004, 09:47 PM	#12
Matter2003 All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: In the vicinity of Buffalo,NY Posts: 1,634	Yeah, I have to give some props to the OOTP engine...and especially to all the customization possible...just wish there was an ability to increase or decrease certain things that we can't now... Matter2003

07-11-2004, 10:04 PM	#13
Anonymous Ghost All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 751	Okay, I've given a second thought. One thing that you could try is to lower the baserunning instincts of your players. Export the General Ratings file and edit everyone's instincts done 25%. This will lead to more baserunning outs being created, which will lower ABs without directly impacting anything else. See if that can give more satisfactory numbers.