Jump in HR's with age

Linus · 04-29-2004, 06:20 PM

I don't know if anyone else is having this problem. But when my pitchers start aging (35 yrs and older). They suddenly start giving up HR's by the truckload.

Case in point: Jared White

W L ERA IP HA R ER BB K HR
2015 21 7 1.91 240.1 221 60 51 43 286 4
2016 10 11 4.56 221.0 211 127 112 40 279 73

The only place where his skills disminished was in the HR dept.

This happens quite frequently with all pitchers as they age. They start giving up a ridiculous amount of HR's.

So what gives? Anybody else having this problem?

Linus

Mike D · 04-29-2004, 06:24 PM

Well, if his skills in giving up Hr's decreased, then wouldn't he give up more hr's? I know everyone hates when people cite real life examples, but look at the number of hr's Greg Maddux has given up the last 3 years, and you'll see that the trend happens in a lot of places.

Linus · 04-29-2004, 06:30 PM

I know that one skill can dimish before others. But to the tune of single digits to 50+ HR's in one year. And it happens with almost all pitchers in my sims.

Mike D · 04-29-2004, 06:36 PM

What was his HR rating before, and after. The number seems extreme, but I just want to see where his HR rating was before.

Linus · 04-29-2004, 06:51 PM

I haven't made any notes on what the actual ratings were before and after. But it seems to be the "stuff" rating that decreases.

Mr.Opinion · 04-29-2004, 07:28 PM

Well, just tell your pitchers to not leave their pitches up anymore.

Night2000 · 04-30-2004, 01:08 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Mr.Opinion
Well, just tell your pitchers to not leave their pitches up anymore.

Great advice! I'm gonna e-mail my pitchers and tell them just that.

rem · 04-30-2004, 01:19 AM

4 to 73 is pretty extreme. Especially since the other numbers stayed pretty much the same.

ctorg · 04-30-2004, 09:55 AM

Wow, I'll have to keep an eye out for that.

rogmax11 · 04-30-2004, 11:45 AM

Any way you dice it up, the HRA totals are absurdly out of wack. The ML record is somewhere around 50 I believe, so an overshoot by 150% needs looking at. As do the K/BB ratios in relation to the rest of the sample pitchers' record. I think 7-1 K vs BB is indicative of extreme talent coupled with extreme control, a combination that is extremely rare ( think Curt Schilling, or Pedro ); while that ratio might explain the 2015 record, it leaves the 2016 results absurdly unbelievable even without the bulge in HRA. Lastly, I am as bothered by the FOUR HRA as much as all the previously cited results; I have no idea what the ML record is for fewest HRA by a pitcher with 200 or more IP, but I'll betcha it is --you'll excuse me, please--extremely, extremely rare to drop below double figures.

Come to think of it, if Barry Zitos' season continues along the lines of his most recent outings perhaps the 73 dingers allowed isnt so bizarre after all.

ctorg · 04-30-2004, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by rogmax11
Any way you dice it up, the HRA totals are absurdly out of wack. The ML record is somewhere around 50 I believe, so an overshoot by 150% needs looking at. As do the K/BB ratios in relation to the rest of the sample pitchers' record. I think 7-1 K vs BB is indicative of extreme talent coupled with extreme control, a combination that is extremely rare ( think Curt Schilling, or Pedro ); while that ratio might explain the 2015 record, it leaves the 2016 results absurdly unbelievable even without the bulge in HRA. Lastly, I am as bothered by the FOUR HRA as much as all the previously cited results; I have no idea what the ML record is for fewest HRA by a pitcher with 200 or more IP, but I'll betcha it is --you'll excuse me, please--extremely, extremely rare to drop below double figures.

Come to think of it, if Barry Zitos' season continues along the lines of his most recent outings perhaps the 73 dingers allowed isnt so bizarre after all.

To be fair, the 1988 New York Mets actually had 3 pitchers with 190+ innings and 10 or fewer HRA. If he's using 80's types of settings, it's believable. Gooden allowed 8 in 248 innings and Ojeda only gave up 6 in 190. In older times, there would be even lower numbers. In other words, it's era specific. Which brings the question: Linis, have you recalculated or otherwise changed league totals between years?

Linus · 04-30-2004, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ctorg
To be fair, the 1988 New York Mets actually had 3 pitchers with 190+ innings and 10 or fewer HRA. If he's using 80's types of settings, it's believable. Gooden allowed 8 in 248 innings and Ojeda only gave up 6 in 190. In older times, there would be even lower numbers. In other words, it's era specific. Which brings the question: Linis, have you recalculated or otherwise changed league totals between years?

Only at the start of the sim. But not between years.

My example of Jared White is just one example of many. It seems whenever a pitcher is getting to the end of his career his ability hold down HR's goes but everything else stays the same (e.g. K/BB ratio).

In fact I can tell what pitchers are losing it by going to the league leaders page and look at the HRA leaders (descending). The ones who have given up 50+ HR's are usually past 35 yrs old and in the previous year usually have given less than 15.

rogmax11 · 04-30-2004, 12:18 PM

Hey ctorg, what a relief, you didnt leave forever! Now I can relax, knowing you are on task again solving all our problems.

I wonder what the biggest jump in HRA from one season to the next actually is IRL. Anyone know?

04-29-2004, 06:20 PM	#1
Linus Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 29	Jump in HR's with age I don't know if anyone else is having this problem. But when my pitchers start aging (35 yrs and older). They suddenly start giving up HR's by the truckload. Case in point: Jared White W L ERA IP HA R ER BB K HR 2015 21 7 1.91 240.1 221 60 51 43 286 4 2016 10 11 4.56 221.0 211 127 112 40 279 73 The only place where his skills disminished was in the HR dept. This happens quite frequently with all pitchers as they age. They start giving up a ridiculous amount of HR's. So what gives? Anybody else having this problem? Linus

04-29-2004, 06:24 PM	#2
Mike D Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: In a van, down by the river Posts: 2,802	Well, if his skills in giving up Hr's decreased, then wouldn't he give up more hr's? I know everyone hates when people cite real life examples, but look at the number of hr's Greg Maddux has given up the last 3 years, and you'll see that the trend happens in a lot of places. __________________ Sometimes the best laid plans will never get you laid the way you plan.

04-29-2004, 06:30 PM	#3
Linus Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 29	I know that one skill can dimish before others. But to the tune of single digits to 50+ HR's in one year. And it happens with almost all pitchers in my sims. __________________ "I now inform you that you are to far from reality"

04-29-2004, 06:36 PM	#4
Mike D Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: In a van, down by the river Posts: 2,802	What was his HR rating before, and after. The number seems extreme, but I just want to see where his HR rating was before. __________________ Sometimes the best laid plans will never get you laid the way you plan.

04-29-2004, 06:51 PM	#5
Linus Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 29	I haven't made any notes on what the actual ratings were before and after. But it seems to be the "stuff" rating that decreases. __________________ "I now inform you that you are to far from reality"

04-29-2004, 07:28 PM	#6
Mr.Opinion All Star Reserve Join Date: May 2003 Location: SkiFree Lodge Posts: 883	Well, just tell your pitchers to not leave their pitches up anymore. __________________

04-30-2004, 01:19 AM	#8
rem Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: College Park, Md. Posts: 5,024	4 to 73 is pretty extreme. Especially since the other numbers stayed pretty much the same. __________________ OTBA: Washington Filibusters CLBR: Minnesota Twins 2005 Winner of LL's Pick the Loser Contest! - 15-0

04-30-2004, 09:55 AM	#9
ctorg Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Queens, NY Posts: 9,848	Wow, I'll have to keep an eye out for that. __________________ My music "When the trees blow back and forth, that's what makes the wind." - Steven Wright Fjord emena pancreas thorax fornicate marmalade morpheme proteolysis smaxa cabana offal srue vitriol grope hallelujah lentils

04-30-2004, 11:45 AM	#10
rogmax11 All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,320	Any way you dice it up, the HRA totals are absurdly out of wack. The ML record is somewhere around 50 I believe, so an overshoot by 150% needs looking at. As do the K/BB ratios in relation to the rest of the sample pitchers' record. I think 7-1 K vs BB is indicative of extreme talent coupled with extreme control, a combination that is extremely rare ( think Curt Schilling, or Pedro ); while that ratio might explain the 2015 record, it leaves the 2016 results absurdly unbelievable even without the bulge in HRA. Lastly, I am as bothered by the FOUR HRA as much as all the previously cited results; I have no idea what the ML record is for fewest HRA by a pitcher with 200 or more IP, but I'll betcha it is --you'll excuse me, please--extremely, extremely rare to drop below double figures. Come to think of it, if Barry Zitos' season continues along the lines of his most recent outings perhaps the 73 dingers allowed isnt so bizarre after all.

04-30-2004, 12:18 PM	#13
rogmax11 All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,320	Hey ctorg, what a relief, you didnt leave forever! Now I can relax, knowing you are on task again solving all our problems. I wonder what the biggest jump in HRA from one season to the next actually is IRL. Anyone know?