Doubles....not implemented properly?

[skkrrt]

This is my ONLY problem with DIPS and its implementation.

I really DO think doubles are influenced in some way by the pitcher (if a pitcher influences HRs, he influences doubles just as much IMHO, especially since a pitcher has been proven to be able to influence line drives for example).

I dont think this was studied at all (im yet to see one) if a pitcher does effect them (I honestly think they do) but without proof the dont, Movement should have effected doubles somewhat.

As it is, I see good pitchers giving up a few too many runs becuase of doubles (I havn't studied it in depth, more of an observation).

Thoughts?

[BarryZito75]

Doubles are even more wildly inconsistent than BABIP. It all depends on which hitter the pitcher is facing. Completely out of the pitcher's control.

[Henry]

This is McCracken's answer to you question....

Henry
================

Some people will argue that despite all the numbers, the above can't be true because it means that a screaming line drive hit into the right-center-field gap is as likely to be an out as a pop-up to the shortstop.

This point deserves further discussion. One of the critical points of misunderstanding is the issue of "blame." When a ball gets crushed into the gap in right-center, some think I'm saying that the defense deserves the blame, not the pitcher. When I counter with "Neither the pitcher nor defense is to blame, it's the batter who is to blame," I lose some people. Consider this example:

When I was a kid, we used to go to the cemetery (this was our playground) and play a game called Lob-League. The makeup of this game was mostly offense and some fielding, with little to no pitching effects. The pitcher's job was to lob the ball over the heart of the plate and let the batter hit it as hard as he wants.

Now, let's suppose we're playing Lob-League and the pitcher lobs one right in the batter's wheelhouse, but the batter pops it up to the shortstop. Who deserves credit for the pop-up? The blame argument would indicate that the pitcher deserves credit for inducing a pop-up despite the fact that all he did was lob the ball over the plate. No credit or blame would belong to the batter who popped up the pitch.

A more relevant MLB example might be the Home Run Derby at the All-Star festivities. I encourage you to watch next year's contest, or, if you have it, a videotape of past contests. Watch for batted balls that would clearly be outs. The pitcher is trying to give up home runs, so does he deserve credit for a pop-up?

In MLB, a pitch could result in a pop-up or a line drive. It all depends on what the batter does with it. I think the conventional wisdom on the dynamic between pitcher and batter may be slightly inaccurate.

[clarnzz]

I can't understand how someone can say they think something was not implemented properly and then offer no evidence as to why they think that other than some random assumption.

[skkrrt]

Originally posted by Henry
This is McCracken's answer to you question....

Henry
================

Some people will argue that despite all the numbers, the above can't be true because it means that a screaming line drive hit into the right-center-field gap is as likely to be an out as a pop-up to the shortstop.

This point deserves further discussion. One of the critical points of misunderstanding is the issue of "blame." When a ball gets crushed into the gap in right-center, some think I'm saying that the defense deserves the blame, not the pitcher. When I counter with "Neither the pitcher nor defense is to blame, it's the batter who is to blame," I lose some people. Consider this example:

When I was a kid, we used to go to the cemetery (this was our playground) and play a game called Lob-League. The makeup of this game was mostly offense and some fielding, with little to no pitching effects. The pitcher's job was to lob the ball over the heart of the plate and let the batter hit it as hard as he wants.

Now, let's suppose we're playing Lob-League and the pitcher lobs one right in the batter's wheelhouse, but the batter pops it up to the shortstop. Who deserves credit for the pop-up? The blame argument would indicate that the pitcher deserves credit for inducing a pop-up despite the fact that all he did was lob the ball over the plate. No credit or blame would belong to the batter who popped up the pitch.

A more relevant MLB example might be the Home Run Derby at the All-Star festivities. I encourage you to watch next year's contest, or, if you have it, a videotape of past contests. Watch for batted balls that would clearly be outs. The pitcher is trying to give up home runs, so does he deserve credit for a pop-up?

In MLB, a pitch could result in a pop-up or a line drive. It all depends on what the batter does with it. I think the conventional wisdom on the dynamic between pitcher and batter may be slightly inaccurate.

The difference being, ML pitchers ARN'T trying to get people to hit one out of the park, so that was a rather pointless thing for him to say. How many HRs are hit in those HR derbies vs how many pitch's thrown (20 pitch's and 5 HRs, that doesn't happen in real life usually, so doesn't that disprove what he says?)

Nor did it answer anything.

And the point a pitcher cant determine how hard a ball is hit has been proven to be false statement , as pitchers do have a correlation between line drives-popups-flyouts ect.. year-year.

[Henry]

I think you missed the point..... if the pitcher is TRYING to serve up a homerun pitch and the batter can't hit it out, then that suggests a SIGNIFICANT portion of the hit-no-hit result is in the hands of the batter - NOT the pitcher.

Henry

[matskralc]

His point was that even when the pitcher misses his spot, screws up, etc., it's still up to the BATTER to do something with the pitch.

[skkrrt]

Originally posted by matskralc
His point was that even when the pitcher misses his spot, screws up, etc., it's still up to the BATTER to do something with the pitch.

Yes I know.....but when you consider that 25% of the time he can hit a meatball out of the park as compared to only 5% of the time normally, that would suggest the pitcher has impact on HRs (we know)

When you consider how hard a double needs to be hit too be turned into a double (almost as hard as a HR, which pitchers prevent) it is natual to think that it is under pitcher influence as well., and there have been no numbers to show otherwise to my perfectly logical opinion.

[clarnzz]

Originally posted by skkrrt
Yes I know.....but when you consider that 25% of the time he can hit a meatball out of the park as compared to only 5% of the time normally, that would suggest the pitcher has impact on HRs (we know)

When you consider how hard a double needs to be hit too be turned into a double (almost as hard as a HR, which pitchers prevent) it is natual to think that it is under pitcher influence as well., and there have been no numbers to show otherwise to my perfectly logical opinion.

Do your own reasearch if you want to make a point and back it up. Don't just show up and make some off handed comment with no evidence, and then tell people to waste their time proving you wrong.

[RonCo]

Maybe it's just me, but I think I've seen an awful lot of doubles that weren't hit very hard.

[draven085]

Originally posted by skkrrt
When you consider how hard a double needs to be hit too be turned into a double (almost as hard as a HR, which pitchers prevent) it is natual to think that it is under pitcher influence as well., and there have been no numbers to show otherwise to my perfectly logical opinion.

Ever heard of the ground ball double down the line? Or perhaps the bloop double that draws chalk and stays fair? Or a line drive shot up the gap that rolls to the wall? None of these types of doubles resemble a home run in the least. Not all doubles are fly balls that bang off the wall.

[matskralc]

Originally posted by skkrrt
When you consider how hard a double needs to be hit too be turned into a double

You mean just a groundball down the line? That doesn't have to be hit any harder than a GO 6-3. Or do you mean a line drive into the gap? That doesn't have to be hit any harder than an L7. Or perhaps a high fly ball just out of the centerfielder's reach? That doesn't have to be hit any harder than an F9.

[skkrrt]

Originally posted by matskralc
You mean just a groundball down the line? That doesn't have to be hit any harder than a GO 6-3. Or do you mean a line drive into the gap? That doesn't have to be hit any harder than an L7. Or perhaps a high fly ball just out of the centerfielder's reach? That doesn't have to be hit any harder than an F9.

Yes, the groundball does or MOST fielders would get it (all except the truly slow and should be DH variety).

Yes a line drive does need to be hit pretty hard last time I checked, or it would be a blooper (not AS hard as HR, I just said close to as hard)

Yes, it does need to be hit harder then most F9 or it wouldn't go over their head.

AND I POSTED THIS ASKING FOR EVIDENCE IT SHOULD BE EXCLUDED, WHICH NOBODY HAS PROVIDED!

So saying me posting withotu facts is as bad as all of you replying without facts isn't it.

I even had a question mark becuase I was asking based off a gut instinct, I presented no facts, I was asking, raising a point. I wanted to see if there was ANY evidence to point that there wasn't a link between doubles given and the pitchers...

yet nobody has provided any.

[skkrrt]

And to further, I wasnt even brining up an avoiding doubles ratings, just a small modifier (if the facts showed it correct) in the movement rating to effect doubles, not a huge game altering rating, just movement ratings somewhat effects doubles, if that is shown to be true (or actually, that you are not able to disprove a correlation).

[dougaiton]

Originally posted by matskralc
You mean just a groundball down the line? That doesn't have to be hit any harder than a GO 6-3. Or do you mean a line drive into the gap? That doesn't have to be hit any harder than an L7. Or perhaps a high fly ball just out of the centerfielder's reach? That doesn't have to be hit any harder than an F9.

Apparently, hitting F5 fast, hard and often has some 'special' effects in the OOTP universe.

[matskralc]

Originally posted by skkrrt
I even had a question mark becuase I was asking based off a gut instinct, I presented no facts, I was asking, raising a point. I wanted to see if there was ANY evidence to point that there wasn't a link between doubles given and the pitchers...

yet nobody has provided any.

And I just told you no, there isn't, because you can hit a ball and have it turn into 5-3, and you could hit a ball EQUALLY WELL and have it turn into a double. This is called "defense, ballpark, and luck", and has not much of anything to do with pitchers.

[dougaiton]

Originally posted by skkrrt
And to further, I wasnt even brining up an avoiding doubles ratings, just a small modifier (if the facts showed it correct) in the movement rating to effect doubles, not a huge game altering rating, just movement ratings somewhat effects doubles, if that is shown to be true (or actually, that you are not able to disprove a correlation).

Surely we'd have to prove a correlation to include new data in the game?

[skkrrt]

Also, if you are true and a double isn't hit ANY harder, then why is their a Gap Power rating.

Doubles should be left up to chance your saying? Since they have no bearing on how hard the ball is hit (according too your logic)?

Or maybe a pitcher should not be able to stop HR's either, only strikeouts and walks?

[draven085]

Originally posted by skkrrt
And to further, I wasnt even brining up an avoiding doubles ratings, just a small modifier (if the facts showed it correct) in the movement rating to effect doubles, not a huge game altering rating, just movement ratings somewhat effects doubles, if that is shown to be true (or actually, that you are not able to disprove a correlation).

Why don't you present some evidence that this 'modifier' has some basis in reality? If you can show me park and defense adjusted numbers that demonstrate that certain pitchers demonstrate a year-to-year ability to prevent doubles and triples then I'll back you 100%.

[dougaiton]

Originally posted by matskralc
And I just told you no, there isn't, because you can hit a ball and have it turn into 5-3, and you could hit a ball EQUALLY WELL and have it turn into a double. This is called "defense, ballpark, and luck", and has not much of anything to do with pitchers.

Moreover, DIPS doesn't say that all balls are hit the same way each time. Obviously, doubles may be on occassion hit harder than singles, but it doesn't make a blind bit of difference, because the pitchers don't have any control of it. I really don't see how OOTP calculates this wrong.