Stolen Bases: Affected by all speed ratings?

bulldog55 · 01-17-2005, 05:04 PM

Longtime ponderance. Is stolen base ability determined solely by the basestealing rating or do speed and instincts come into play as well?

Looking at Barry Larkin, he is a 63/99/92 and routinely steals 40 or 50 bases being caught barely 10 times. He's rated so well on instincts that it could be a combination of the two 90+ ratings making him so good. Or is it just his 99?

Anybody conducted a study?

sporr · 01-17-2005, 05:07 PM

Speed does come into play. I'm not sure about baserunning instincts. Speed helps to determine whether you get a good jump or not or something like that.

andjbock · 01-17-2005, 05:11 PM

Isn't instincts the ability to take 2 bases on a hit.

sporr · 01-17-2005, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andjbock

Isn't instincts the ability to take 2 bases on a hit.

Yes, I've never seen it tied to stolen bases, but I can't say with 100% certainty that Markus didn't program something in there.

endgame · 01-17-2005, 08:24 PM

There was a study, if I recall, done to explore stealing (was it Dan?). Try the search function with both steal and study and see what comes up. I sure think there was one in there.

Nevermind, I found it: http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ht=steal+study

mlyons · 01-17-2005, 09:08 PM

Speed generally dictates the number of attempts a runner will be able to make; stealing determines how often he will be successful. I'm not sure what effect instinct has on stealing. If it has any, it's very minimal.

Cyclone792 · 01-17-2005, 09:23 PM

Pretty sure it goes like this...

Speed influences # of attempts (higher speed = more attempts)
Ability influences success rate (higher ability = higher success rate)
Instincts influences only influences good baserunning, such as going first to third on a single, tagging up to score/reach 3B safely, scoring from 2nd on singles, etc.

So guys with high speed and high steal ability ratings can probably steal nearly 100 bags a year. A guy like Larkin, with a high ability rating but merely above average in speed, will only steal 40-50 bases per year with those ratings, but will do so with a very high stolen base percentage. For me, if a guy isn't over 70 in his stolen base ability rating, I'm turning his steal preference all the way down. The guys that piss me off are the ones with a rating set of like 85/25/25 since they're the ones that like to attempt 60 steals a season and get thrown out 35 times. Even turning their steal preference all the way down, they usually still attempt nearly 10 steals per year with a lousy percentage of success.

andjbock · 01-17-2005, 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sporr

Yes, I've never seen it tied to stolen bases, but I can't say with 100% certainty that Markus didn't program something in there.

I just looked in the manual and it says that instincts will enhance the success in stealing bases.

sporr · 01-18-2005, 12:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andjbock

I just looked in the manual and it says that instincts will enhance the success in stealing bases.

Geez! I proofread the manual and didn't even know that!

01-17-2005, 05:04 PM	#1
bulldog55 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: California's Canada Warnings: 17 Posts: 2,479	Stolen Bases: Affected by all speed ratings? Longtime ponderance. Is stolen base ability determined solely by the basestealing rating or do speed and instincts come into play as well? Looking at Barry Larkin, he is a 63/99/92 and routinely steals 40 or 50 bases being caught barely 10 times. He's rated so well on instincts that it could be a combination of the two 90+ ratings making him so good. Or is it just his 99? Anybody conducted a study? __________________ Commissioner, Trans-Continental Base Ball Association Owner/GM, Los Angeles Electrics (TCBA), Beaverton Rangers (OTBL), Portland Mavericks (Union League), and Los Angeles Superbas (Century League) Being smart, don't always make you popular.

01-17-2005, 08:24 PM	#5
endgame Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 16,842	There was a study, if I recall, done to explore stealing (was it Dan?). Try the search function with both steal and study and see what comes up. I sure think there was one in there. Nevermind, I found it: http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ht=steal+study __________________ "Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett _____________________________________________ Last edited by endgame; 01-17-2005 at 08:26 PM.

01-17-2005, 09:08 PM	#6
mlyons Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 3,725	Speed generally dictates the number of attempts a runner will be able to make; stealing determines how often he will be successful. I'm not sure what effect instinct has on stealing. If it has any, it's very minimal. __________________ Things can always be worse.

01-17-2005, 09:23 PM	#7
Cyclone792 All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Cincinnati, Ohio Posts: 572	Pretty sure it goes like this... Speed influences # of attempts (higher speed = more attempts) Ability influences success rate (higher ability = higher success rate) Instincts influences only influences good baserunning, such as going first to third on a single, tagging up to score/reach 3B safely, scoring from 2nd on singles, etc. So guys with high speed and high steal ability ratings can probably steal nearly 100 bags a year. A guy like Larkin, with a high ability rating but merely above average in speed, will only steal 40-50 bases per year with those ratings, but will do so with a very high stolen base percentage. For me, if a guy isn't over 70 in his stolen base ability rating, I'm turning his steal preference all the way down. The guys that piss me off are the ones with a rating set of like 85/25/25 since they're the ones that like to attempt 60 steals a season and get thrown out 35 times. Even turning their steal preference all the way down, they usually still attempt nearly 10 steals per year with a lousy percentage of success. __________________ Jason POTD: Co-Commish and Glacier Bay Ice Pirates

01-17-2005, 05:07 PM	#2
sporr Global Moderator Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Muscatine, IA Posts: 8,277	Speed does come into play. I'm not sure about baserunning instincts. Speed helps to determine whether you get a good jump or not or something like that.

01-17-2005, 05:11 PM	#3
andjbock Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Somerville, MA, USA Bats: Right Throws: Left Posts: 3,637	Isn't instincts the ability to take 2 bases on a hit.