Could a reliever win the NL Cy Young?

jaxmagicman · 08-21-2003, 08:05 AM

I heard Tim Kurkjian say this morning, on the Mike and Mike show, that if a NL starter does not have a dominant year, then he is all for a closer winning the Cy young. He named off John Smoltz and Eric Gagne. He said, that if Smoltz ends up with 65 saves and ERA under 1.00 than he could win it. Same story with Gagne. What do you guys think? Should a Closer win the Cy Young. I know it has happen before, but what about this year? To be honest, he also Named off Mark Prior, Jason Schimdt, and Kevin Brown as other possiblities but lets stick with the closers?

So is it possible this year? Or would it be right?

Skipaway · 08-21-2003, 08:25 AM

Ortiz is very....average. Isn't he? Maybe we can give Cy Young to the Braves' offense? Hideo Nomo or Kevin Brown are much more deserving candidates.

There are so much talk about Smoltz and Gagne winning Cy Young these days. I think one of them will win it.

I am not 100% sure if that's right though. One less run in late and close did mean more than one less run early in the game. However, I am not convinced the ability to prevent one run in the 9th is different than to prevent one run in the 8th. The chances were just given to closers instead of created by themselves. Maybe someone got better ideas?

jaxmagicman · 08-21-2003, 08:44 AM

Just to clear things up, he did Mention Kevin Brown as well, but I was stuck on the Closers. I think Russ Ortiz was put in the he's an all-star but not a Cy Young winner catagory on another talk show in my home town. So I blanked when I thought of the third name he mentioned, thank you Skipaway for reminding me. He said, Mark Prior, KEVIN BROWN (who still leads the league in ERA) and Jason Schimdt. Russ Ortiz was not part of the conversation.

Jason Moyer · 08-21-2003, 09:26 AM

I hope Gagne wins it. He's currently the most valuable pitcher in the NL, and he may be able to pull it off considering how much press he's getting.

Edit: This could be a pretty good race for the award.

Code:

Player          Team    Hit     Field   Pitch   Sum     WS      POS     POSRANK	
---------	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	---	---	-----	
E Gagne         LA      0.00    0.00    17.90   17.90   18      P       1	
L Hernandez     MON     0.00    0.00    16.88   16.88   17      P       2	
K Brown         LA      0.00    0.00    16.44   16.44   17      P       3	
H Nomo          LA      0.00    0.00    16.23   16.23   16      P       4	
J Smoltz        ATL     0.00    0.00    15.45   15.45   16      P       5

Jason

jaxmagicman · 08-21-2003, 09:30 AM

Interesting Livan Hernandez is second.

streetballer67 · 08-21-2003, 10:43 AM

Give the Cy Young to Willis. If a closer does get it though, It would have to be Smoltz.

AnotherAlias · 08-21-2003, 11:54 AM

I don't know...even without Gagne the Dodgers would still be wallowing in 3rd place or lower.

Smoltz might be a good choice.

If the Cubs win their division, I could see Prior being the Cy Young
winner....

Mariner and Giants Fan · 08-21-2003, 12:04 PM

I think Ichiro should get it....Hah! just kidding...Smoltz or Gagne are clear and away the favorites, with no clear cut starter winning 20+ games (like 23 or more).

Hammer755 · 08-21-2003, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Mariner and Giants Fan
I think Ichiro should get it....Hah! just kidding...Smoltz or Gagne are clear and away the favorites, with no clear cut starter winning 20+ games (like 23 or more).

I guess the proper thing to do here would be not to mention how luck is the primary factor in winning 20 games.

Jason Moyer · 08-21-2003, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Hammer755
I guess the proper thing to do here would be not to mention how luck is the primary factor in winning 20 games.

I won't mention it if you don't mention it.

Jason

sixto · 08-21-2003, 01:11 PM

You know, W-L record may not be a true reflection of a pitcher's performance, but I do not see any justification for ignoring it. I think that implicit in W-L is how well the team did - just enough, IMO, to take it into account, while not overstating it. CY is not MVPitcher, but calling, say, an 8-16 pitcher the best pitcher in his league just doesn't follow. Now, should Pat Hentgen have a CY on his shelf? I don't know. I don't think it's any worse than giving it to Loaiza, whose numbers this year are there, but never have been any other year. I mean, isn't his strong performance in 2003 as much a fluke as Clemens winning those 20 games?

What I want to know is, if Gagne is the most valuable pitcher as a closer, what do you suppose he could do if he pitched a couple of innings at a time?

LivnLegend · 08-21-2003, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Jason Moyer
I hope Gagne wins it. He's currently the most valuable pitcher in the NL, and he may be able to pull it off considering how much press he's getting.

Good call.

I almost started this same thread yesterday!

Gagne and Smoltz have been darn good this year and no starters are dominating.

A few dates:
1989 - Last reliever to win NL Cy Young (Davis)
1988 - Last Dodger to win Cy Young (Hershiser)
1974 - Last Dodger reliever tow in Cy Young (Marshall)

Gagne could wipe out all of those dry spells.

Gagne is 41 for 41 in save opps. He has 105 strikeouts in 62 innings (15.24 per nine innings!).
His ERA is 1.45, and even better in save situations, at 0.44! (see my argument against Jim Tracy using Gagne in tie games).

Two records Gagne seems certain to break: Eck's two year save total and the record for career save percentage with a minimum of 100 saves.

KurtBevacqua · 08-21-2003, 01:51 PM

Mark Davis and Steve Bedrosian both won the NL Cy Young as closers. So yes, a closer could win it. I think Gagne and Smotlz both are having better seasons than Davis and Bedrosian when they won it. I don't agree with it though. Sorry but throwing 80 innings isn't the same as 200 plus innings. Especially when most of those 80 occur when the guy comes in the 9th with no one on and often a 2-3 run lead.

Smoltz won a legit Cy Young as a starter so it's hard for me to harsh on him, but Gagne was mediocre at best as a starter and is simply not the same quality pitcher as a Mark Prior or Kevin Brown.

Hammer755 · 08-21-2003, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by LivnLegend
Two records Gagne seems certain to break: Eck's two year save total and the record for career save percentage with a minimum of 100 saves.

One small problem, by then it will be John Smoltz's two year save record.

Sixto, I agree with your point. You can't throw out wins & losses, but wins are one of the least important pieces to me, following BAA, OPSA, WHIP, ERA, K/BB, etc.

For example, this season Russ Ortiz is being mentioned among the NL Cy front-runners. I think he should be considered, but he is behind several others IMO. Obviously he leads in wins and could be the NL's only 20 game winner, and has a solid BAA. However, his career long trend of walking a lot of hitters continues, and it is ruining his WHIP & K/BB numbers. He's having a solid season, but not Cy worthy, IMO.

I would rank him behind Brown, Nomo, Schmidt, Prior and maybe even Livan Hernandez as far as starters go, and I still haven't made up my mind where Smoltz/Gagne fit in both in comparison to each other and in comparison to the group of starters.

I also think there is a big difference between having a flukey all-around season (Loaiza) and a single flukey component to a single season (Clemens). Loaiza has the all-around numbers to justify winning the award.

Skipaway · 08-21-2003, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Jason Moyer
I hope Gagne wins it. He's currently the most valuable pitcher in the NL, and he may be able to pull it off considering how much press he's getting.

Edit: This could be a pretty good race for the award.

Code:

Player Team Hit Field Pitch Sum WS POS POSRANK --------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- --- --- ----- E Gagne LA 0.00 0.00 17.90 17.90 18 P 1 L Hernandez MON 0.00 0.00 16.88 16.88 17 P 2 K Brown LA 0.00 0.00 16.44 16.44 17 P 3 H Nomo LA 0.00 0.00 16.23 16.23 16 P 4 J Smoltz ATL 0.00 0.00 15.45 15.45 16 P 5

Jason

I need to go back and read win shares more. I think it did consider late inning leverage? If so, then I'd say Gagne is more valuable than Mota simply because he's giving the chance. That's not 100% fair if there is indeed no special ability to pitch in the 9th instead of 7th.

Dwolfson20 · 08-21-2003, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Skipaway
I need to go back and read win shares more. I think it did consider late inning leverage? If so, then I'd say Gagne is more valuable than Mota simply because he's giving the chance. That's not 100% fair if there is indeed no special ability to pitch in the 9th instead of 7th.

Who is Mota?

twins15 · 08-21-2003, 10:22 PM

Guillermo Mota.

Dwolfson20 · 08-21-2003, 10:26 PM

Why is he being mentioned in the Cy Young discussion?

twins15 · 08-21-2003, 10:29 PM

Because Skipaway wanted him to.

Dwolfson20 · 08-21-2003, 10:39 PM

Fair enough.

08-21-2003, 08:05 AM	#1
jaxmagicman Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Retired defloration-maker living in Myrtle Beach, SC Posts: 7,801	Could a reliever win the NL Cy Young? I heard Tim Kurkjian say this morning, on the Mike and Mike show, that if a NL starter does not have a dominant year, then he is all for a closer winning the Cy young. He named off John Smoltz and Eric Gagne. He said, that if Smoltz ends up with 65 saves and ERA under 1.00 than he could win it. Same story with Gagne. What do you guys think? Should a Closer win the Cy Young. I know it has happen before, but what about this year? To be honest, he also Named off Mark Prior, Jason Schimdt, and Kevin Brown as other possiblities but lets stick with the closers? So is it possible this year? Or would it be right? __________________ See ID Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of MLB Advanced Media, L.P. Minor League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with the permission of Minor League Baseball. All rights reserved. Last edited by jaxmagicman; 08-21-2003 at 08:45 AM.

08-21-2003, 08:25 AM	#2
Skipaway Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Where you live Posts: 11,017	Ortiz is very....average. Isn't he? Maybe we can give Cy Young to the Braves' offense? Hideo Nomo or Kevin Brown are much more deserving candidates. There are so much talk about Smoltz and Gagne winning Cy Young these days. I think one of them will win it. I am not 100% sure if that's right though. One less run in late and close did mean more than one less run early in the game. However, I am not convinced the ability to prevent one run in the 9th is different than to prevent one run in the 8th. The chances were just given to closers instead of created by themselves. Maybe someone got better ideas? __________________ Jonathan Haidt: Moral reasoning is really just a servant masquerading as a high priest.

08-21-2003, 08:44 AM	#3
jaxmagicman Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Retired defloration-maker living in Myrtle Beach, SC Posts: 7,801	Just to clear things up, he did Mention Kevin Brown as well, but I was stuck on the Closers. I think Russ Ortiz was put in the he's an all-star but not a Cy Young winner catagory on another talk show in my home town. So I blanked when I thought of the third name he mentioned, thank you Skipaway for reminding me. He said, Mark Prior, KEVIN BROWN (who still leads the league in ERA) and Jason Schimdt. Russ Ortiz was not part of the conversation. __________________ See ID Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of MLB Advanced Media, L.P. Minor League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with the permission of Minor League Baseball. All rights reserved.

08-21-2003, 09:26 AM	#4
Jason Moyer Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 5,108	I hope Gagne wins it. He's currently the most valuable pitcher in the NL, and he may be able to pull it off considering how much press he's getting. Edit: This could be a pretty good race for the award. Code: Player Team Hit Field Pitch Sum WS POS POSRANK --------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- --- --- ----- E Gagne LA 0.00 0.00 17.90 17.90 18 P 1 L Hernandez MON 0.00 0.00 16.88 16.88 17 P 2 K Brown LA 0.00 0.00 16.44 16.44 17 P 3 H Nomo LA 0.00 0.00 16.23 16.23 16 P 4 J Smoltz ATL 0.00 0.00 15.45 15.45 16 P 5 Jason __________________ "I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech

08-21-2003, 09:30 AM	#5
jaxmagicman Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Retired defloration-maker living in Myrtle Beach, SC Posts: 7,801	Interesting Livan Hernandez is second. __________________ See ID Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of MLB Advanced Media, L.P. Minor League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with the permission of Minor League Baseball. All rights reserved.

08-21-2003, 10:43 AM	#6
streetballer67 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Upstate NY Posts: 2,004	Give the Cy Young to Willis. If a closer does get it though, It would have to be Smoltz. __________________ Visit Here!!!

08-21-2003, 11:54 AM	#7
AnotherAlias Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: I'm back...for now Posts: 4,190	I don't know...even without Gagne the Dodgers would still be wallowing in 3rd place or lower. Smoltz might be a good choice. If the Cubs win their division, I could see Prior being the Cy Young winner....

08-21-2003, 12:04 PM	#8
Mariner and Giants Fan All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Port Townsend, WA. Posts: 1,264	I think Ichiro should get it....Hah! just kidding...Smoltz or Gagne are clear and away the favorites, with no clear cut starter winning 20+ games (like 23 or more). __________________ Hebrews 11:1 "Now faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen"

08-21-2003, 01:11 PM	#11
sixto Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 2,271	You know, W-L record may not be a true reflection of a pitcher's performance, but I do not see any justification for ignoring it. I think that implicit in W-L is how well the team did - just enough, IMO, to take it into account, while not overstating it. CY is not MVPitcher, but calling, say, an 8-16 pitcher the best pitcher in his league just doesn't follow. Now, should Pat Hentgen have a CY on his shelf? I don't know. I don't think it's any worse than giving it to Loaiza, whose numbers this year are there, but never have been any other year. I mean, isn't his strong performance in 2003 as much a fluke as Clemens winning those 20 games? What I want to know is, if Gagne is the most valuable pitcher as a closer, what do you suppose he could do if he pitched a couple of innings at a time?

08-21-2003, 01:51 PM	#13
KurtBevacqua Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 2,968	Mark Davis and Steve Bedrosian both won the NL Cy Young as closers. So yes, a closer could win it. I think Gagne and Smotlz both are having better seasons than Davis and Bedrosian when they won it. I don't agree with it though. Sorry but throwing 80 innings isn't the same as 200 plus innings. Especially when most of those 80 occur when the guy comes in the 9th with no one on and often a 2-3 run lead. Smoltz won a legit Cy Young as a starter so it's hard for me to harsh on him, but Gagne was mediocre at best as a starter and is simply not the same quality pitcher as a Mark Prior or Kevin Brown. __________________ "The type and formula of most schemes of philanthropy or humanitarianism is this: A and B put their heads together to decide what C shall be made to do for D. The radical vice of all these schemes, from a sociological point of view, is that C is not allowed a voice in the matter, and his position, character, and interests, as well as the ultimate effects on society through C's interests, are entirely overlooked. I call C the Forgotten Man" - William Graham Sumner

08-21-2003, 10:22 PM	#17
twins15 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Area 51 Posts: 4,792	Guillermo Mota. __________________ "Ah man we're just hungry man" - Dovonte Edwards Bismarck Boy Scouts of the OTBL - league yes-man Ross Gload at baseball-reference.com Book Quotes and Book Lists

08-21-2003, 10:26 PM	#18
Dwolfson20 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Not St. Louis Posts: 2,872	Why is he being mentioned in the Cy Young discussion? __________________

08-21-2003, 10:29 PM	#19
twins15 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Area 51 Posts: 4,792	Because Skipaway wanted him to. __________________ "Ah man we're just hungry man" - Dovonte Edwards Bismarck Boy Scouts of the OTBL - league yes-man Ross Gload at baseball-reference.com Book Quotes and Book Lists

08-21-2003, 10:39 PM	#20
Dwolfson20 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Not St. Louis Posts: 2,872	Fair enough. __________________