How accurate are ratings in Ankit's Career Average Database?

Eugene Church · 08-12-2003, 10:48 PM

Do the ratings in Ankit's Career Average Database require a lot of editing to make them accurate?

Are the player ratings at least 90% accurate?

I use the Lahman Database in my Alltime Allstar Leagues.
It requires an enormous amount of editing to get player ratings accurate and moving players manually from one classifcation to another. I have to do it for 4 separate leagues each season. I disable the minors in the game and create my own minors using separate leagues and then have to manually promote and demote each season.

Will Ankit's Career Average Database help me?

Henry · 08-13-2003, 11:50 AM

I think one of the things you (and others) are running into is the basic concept of OOTP.

Back in version 4, in an attempt to explain why OOTP was different than other games in historical leagues, I posted an experiment.

In created a 1961 league from the Lahman database twice and compared Mickey Mantle in both leagues.

The test showed that players are not imported the same way twice. Although they are close, they are different each time. I suspect this is still true (although I haven't repeated the test since).

This is what gives you the variability that OOTP is known for - yet creates a "moving target" when trying to recreate the accuracy of a historical season (which, by the way, OOTP was never roiginally designed to do).

It would be interesting for someone to repeat this test to see if it's still that way.

One thing Markus could do (if he chose to) is to have an option where no variance was applied if you "checked a box". Just thinking out loud....

ClassicMLB · 08-13-2003, 11:57 AM

Does anyone have the link to download the Ankit Databases? Also I know there are about three versions of them but I am looking for the one that is the "regular" version that is similiar to the Lahman but has the players debuting slightly later with more accurate ratings.

Thanks

adventureran · 08-13-2003, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Henry
I think one of the things you (and others) are running into is the basic concept of OOTP.

This is what gives you the variability that OOTP is known for - yet creates a "moving target" when trying to recreate the accuracy of a historical season (which, by the way, OOTP was never roiginally designed to do).

Henry,

I don't think this gets said often enough. It should be a part of the "packaging" of OOTP. It was not designed to accurately recreate history. Many, especially in historical leagues, complain that "my player should have better ratings" or "why is that bum playing so well? he didn't play that way IRL."

That variable, is what makes the game unpredictable and exciting. Although in some cases the stats come eerily close to real life, it is not "guaranteed" to be that way.

I created a solo league the exact same way I setup 4Ever Baseball. Since I'm not playing in my online league, I wanted to play that simulation. And there are some very definite differences in not only some of the imported ratings, but more importantly, the outcome.

Eugene Church · 08-13-2003, 01:18 PM

ClassicMLB: Do an author search for "Ankit".

Then find the thread "Question about Career Average DB"
by "tbclcommish".

Go to the last post by "Ankit".

He gives the site where you can download it.

Sorry to have to do it this way.

Don't have the computer knowledge to transfer the URL here.

Hope this helps.

adventureran · 08-13-2003, 01:26 PM

I'm sorry, in my diatribe, I completely forgot to answer that question. Here you go.

Henry · 08-13-2003, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Eugene Church
Don't have the computer knowledge to transfer the URL here.

Eugene,

It's simpler than you might think. Once you can see a URL (or anything else for that matter) on the screen, use the mouse pointer to highlight it (press and hold the left button while you drag the pointer over the text). Let go of the button and press Cntrl-C (copy). Go to the place you want to insert it, place the cursur at the correct location, and press Cntrl-V (paste).

Just make sure the "http://" part is in front (type it in if it doesn't come over with the cut-paste method).

Did it below

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/

Henry · 08-13-2003, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by adventureran
Henry,

I don't think this gets said often enough. It should be a part of the "packaging" of OOTP. It was not designed to accurately recreate history. Many, especially in historical leagues, complain that "my player should have better ratings" or "why is that bum playing so well? he didn't play that way IRL."

That variable, is what makes the game unpredictable and exciting. Although in some cases the stats come eerily close to real life, it is not "guaranteed" to be that way.

I created a solo league the exact same way I setup 4Ever Baseball. Since I'm not playing in my online league, I wanted to play that simulation. And there are some very definite differences in not only some of the imported ratings, but more importantly, the outcome.

Agreed. I think I'll do another test with an explanation and see if Steve would put it up as a sticky note....

Eugene Church · 08-13-2003, 01:52 PM

Henry and adventureran:

After many forum searches and much time, I became aware that once you import a player from the Lahman db, the game "develops" that player and he may not perform as he did in "real life" unless you choose "replay" instead of "career". I also learned much to my chagrin that the 18 to 22 year olds don't perform anywhere near "real life" in the game. That's why I changed all of the players ages to 24 in my leagues hoping that they would develop sooner. About age 29, I intend to move their age back to 24 and then let them play out their careers. Hope this doesn't screw up the game.

I choose "career" so that the game will accumulate career stats.
Not sure if it does it in the "replay" mode.

My point about the Lahman is that you only get the player's stats for the year you import him. The batting and pitching ratings seem to be accurate for that year only, but many times not close to their career averages, but range and arm ratings, and perhaps fielding averages, seems to be randomly assigned and are not accurate...therefore much research and editing is required. It took me 6 months to set up 4 separate leagues...a total of 2000 alltime allstars.

If I download Ankit's Career Average Db, will that import the players with ACCURATE career averages...batting, pitching, fielding...including arm, range and speed ratings?

I realize that after importing a player, the game will "develop" him and he will not always play as he performed in "real life".

I wish I had known it when I first started my leagues.

It would have saved me much time and confusion.

adventureran · 08-13-2003, 02:02 PM

I believe part of what Henry was trying to say is that not only do they develop differently, but that they also will not import the same way everytime.

Also, I do not believe that OOTP accurately imports fielding ratings, at least not all of them such as arm, for example.

But, yes, I think Ankit's Career AVerage Db is designed to give more accurate career stats.

Eugene Church · 08-13-2003, 02:58 PM

adventureran:

I appreciate your help.

Thanks...and Henry's, too...especially for teaching me Computer 101. If I continue to play this game for 10 more years, you guys will teach me all of the computer basics.

ClassicMLB: see adventureran's post in this thread for the website...the one with the word "diatribe" in it.

Click "here you go" in his post.

ClassicMLB · 08-13-2003, 06:09 PM

Thanks for your help guys. I got the file downloaded but the readme file inside it suggests that you should start a league using Lahman or the original Ankit database and then use the Career Avg Ankit Database for bringing in rookies each season.

Have any of your started career leagues using the Career AVG Ankit Database?

adventureran · 08-13-2003, 06:33 PM

No. You should follow the instructions in his readme file. It is correct.

H I Mcdonough · 08-13-2003, 08:07 PM

If I already am 6 seasons into a historical league using the Lahman db, and I would like to switch over to the Ankit career average db......can I do that? Or will that screw everything up? I am guessing I would need to start from scratch.

adventureran · 08-13-2003, 08:19 PM

Well, you're liable to get some duplicates since Ankit's db and Lahman's introduces some rookies in different years based on various factors (e.g., at bats, innings pitched, etc.).

H I Mcdonough · 08-13-2003, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by adventureran
Well, you're liable to get some duplicates since Ankit's db and Lahman's introduces some rookies in different years based on various factors (e.g., at bats, innings pitched, etc.).

That's pretty much what I figured. But since I'm only 6 years in, restarting isn't the end of the world.

I have never tried any database other than the Lahman's. And after reading all of this, I am gonna give Ankit's career avg db a shot.

Also, another question: Does Ankit's db do a better job regarding pitchers coming in as starters? In the Lahman version, I always had a huge problem catching some of the guys like, say Steve Carlton, who would come in as a MR and I might not catch them until later in their careers.

Henry · 08-13-2003, 08:54 PM

This is a followup to my comment earlier about players imported differently each time. I loaded the 1961 season form the Lahman database and the results below are for 30 year old Ernie Banks.

I've only included the variables that change. Surprisingly, some of the "myths" mentioned over time on this board are not true. For example, Fielding ratings are the same all the time - they are not assigned randomly. Running and Bunting Ratings are also fixed.

A number of items do change, however. Batting Ratings and Talents - although close - can vary. Things like consistency, clutch rating, and Star Ratings can change as well.

Not knowing how things like consistency and clutch effect stats - and if these in turn effect ratings - almost anything can happen. Notice that Banks is Great @ Clutch and Good @ Consistency in the 3rd variation... something that will likely make #3 Banks better than #1 or #2.

The point thus is, accuracy of setting up a historical league is "close" but not intended to be "exact" - thus the complaints now and then when a player doesn't perform up to expectations is caused for a reason.

ClassicMLB · 08-13-2003, 10:24 PM

Yes I have found from working with it that Ankit's Career Avg DBase isn't worth the effort. The differences in ratings are really unnoticable from Lahman's DBase and trying to work with the Ankit after starting with Lahman's is just asking for trouble.

Starting a league with Ankit's Career Avg DBase is also a bad idea because the stat history of the players are all messed up. I would suggest to anyone that they should just use Lahman's and edit the players to whatever degree you want historical accuracy. Most players are somewhat close to "real life" and the variance allows for a more interesting league anyway.

AngelinOF · 08-13-2003, 10:51 PM

Quote:

Have any of your started career leagues using the Career AVG Ankit Database?

You can't really use career average DB's to start a replay or to import players midway into their careers. Career Average db's only have each players' rookie season of stats so they will only import with stats from that given year. Ankit's DB is a little bit different that it just has each player's career average seasonal stats repeated for each season, so if you were to import Ty Cobb for the 1920 season he would have 14 seasons' of identical stats. The regular Ankit DB is basically identical to the original Lahman except that players debut when they started playing regularly so Joe Nuxhall debuts in 1952 opposed to 1944.

Quote:

Also, another question: Does Ankit's db do a better job regarding pitchers coming in as starters? In the Lahman version, I always had a huge problem catching some of the guys like, say Steve Carlton, who would come in as a MR and I might not catch them until later in their careers.

Yes it corrects this problem, so far I haven't came across a player who was a MR but should of been a SP, this was a big problem with the original Lahman since in most instances players' careers began out of the bullpen. It also imports players as closers if they did so for most of their career, not sure if Lahman assigns any players to the closer role.

Eugene Church · 08-14-2003, 12:24 AM

Batting and pitching ratings are in the ballpark, so to speak, in the Lahman Database.
However, fielding ratings are not very reliable. Basestealing ratings are sometimes less than reliable.

Thanks to Henry, I looked at Ernie Banks.
His batting ratings are reliable, but the fielding is not even close:
In Lahman he gets an "E" range at 1B in '61 and '65..."D" in '62.
Careerwise, if you look at his fielding stats, he was probably a "B" or arguably a "C"...but nowhere near an "E".
At SS Lahman gave him "E" range in '6l when he deserved an "A" range. I'm sorry, but I expect such a wonderful database to be more accurate than this.

Basestealing ratings in Lahman can be very misleading. I think they are based on "stealing percentage" and "quantity" doesn't seem to be considered. Someone who steals 5 out of 5 attempts will get a better rating than someone who steals 50 out of 70. Sorry, no facts to back me up...other than importing and editing 2000 players one at a time over a 6 month period and verifying the ratings in Lahman with Baseball-Reference.

Ernie Banks averaged 3 stolen bases a year with a high of 9.
Yet in one year he was given a "B" rating, which means he might steal 15-25 bases. In 2 of the 3 years Henry used, the Lahman correctly gave Banks an "E" rating, but it really was off one year.

I suppose I will just continue to use the Lahman and correct any discrepancies as I edit the players ratings. Ankit may be too difficult for a computer illiterate like me. ClassicMLB did not seem to be to impressed, which made a little impression on me. I also don't want to start my 4 leagues over again.

To close, please don't think I'm bashing the Lahman database...it is tremendously helpful...I don't know what in the world I would do without it and the Baseball-Reference. Both are absolute necessities for my leagues. I simply do not understand someone inputting all of that data and giving it away free of charge. One day soon (if my wife will allow it), I intend to made donations to both. I hope anyone who uses them share my feelings. They deserve support.

Ankit is to be complimented for all of his great efforts. I have heard only a very, very few negative comments and far, far more compliments.

08-13-2003, 01:18 PM	#5
Eugene Church Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 36,205	ClassicMLB: Do an author search for "Ankit". Then find the thread "Question about Career Average DB" by "tbclcommish". Go to the last post by "Ankit". He gives the site where you can download it. Sorry to have to do it this way. Don't have the computer knowledge to transfer the URL here. Hope this helps. Last edited by Eugene Church; 08-13-2003 at 01:20 PM.

08-13-2003, 02:58 PM	#11
Eugene Church Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 36,205	adventureran: I appreciate your help. Thanks...and Henry's, too...especially for teaching me Computer 101. If I continue to play this game for 10 more years, you guys will teach me all of the computer basics. ClassicMLB: see adventureran's post in this thread for the website...the one with the word "diatribe" in it. Click "here you go" in his post. Last edited by Eugene Church; 08-13-2003 at 03:29 PM.

08-13-2003, 08:54 PM	#17
Henry Hall of Fame Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 6,498	This is a followup to my comment earlier about players imported differently each time. I loaded the 1961 season form the Lahman database and the results below are for 30 year old Ernie Banks. I've only included the variables that change. Surprisingly, some of the "myths" mentioned over time on this board are not true. For example, Fielding ratings are the same all the time - they are not assigned randomly. Running and Bunting Ratings are also fixed. A number of items do change, however. Batting Ratings and Talents - although close - can vary. Things like consistency, clutch rating, and Star Ratings can change as well. Not knowing how things like consistency and clutch effect stats - and if these in turn effect ratings - almost anything can happen. Notice that Banks is Great @ Clutch and Good @ Consistency in the 3rd variation... something that will likely make #3 Banks better than #1 or #2. The point thus is, accuracy of setting up a historical league is "close" but not intended to be "exact" - thus the complaints now and then when a player doesn't perform up to expectations is caused for a reason. Last edited by Henry; 08-13-2003 at 09:14 PM.

08-12-2003, 10:48 PM	#1
Eugene Church Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 36,205	How accurate are ratings in Ankit's Career Average Database? Do the ratings in Ankit's Career Average Database require a lot of editing to make them accurate? Are the player ratings at least 90% accurate? I use the Lahman Database in my Alltime Allstar Leagues. It requires an enormous amount of editing to get player ratings accurate and moving players manually from one classifcation to another. I have to do it for 4 separate leagues each season. I disable the minors in the game and create my own minors using separate leagues and then have to manually promote and demote each season. Will Ankit's Career Average Database help me?

08-13-2003, 11:50 AM	#2
Henry Hall of Fame Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 6,498	I think one of the things you (and others) are running into is the basic concept of OOTP. Back in version 4, in an attempt to explain why OOTP was different than other games in historical leagues, I posted an experiment. In created a 1961 league from the Lahman database twice and compared Mickey Mantle in both leagues. The test showed that players are not imported the same way twice. Although they are close, they are different each time. I suspect this is still true (although I haven't repeated the test since). This is what gives you the variability that OOTP is known for - yet creates a "moving target" when trying to recreate the accuracy of a historical season (which, by the way, OOTP was never roiginally designed to do). It would be interesting for someone to repeat this test to see if it's still that way. One thing Markus could do (if he chose to) is to have an option where no variance was applied if you "checked a box". Just thinking out loud....

08-13-2003, 11:57 AM	#3
ClassicMLB Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 137	Does anyone have the link to download the Ankit Databases? Also I know there are about three versions of them but I am looking for the one that is the "regular" version that is similiar to the Lahman but has the players debuting slightly later with more accurate ratings. Thanks

08-13-2003, 01:26 PM	#6
adventureran Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Ohio Posts: 447	I'm sorry, in my diatribe, I completely forgot to answer that question. Here you go.

08-13-2003, 01:52 PM	#9
Eugene Church Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 36,205	Henry and adventureran: After many forum searches and much time, I became aware that once you import a player from the Lahman db, the game "develops" that player and he may not perform as he did in "real life" unless you choose "replay" instead of "career". I also learned much to my chagrin that the 18 to 22 year olds don't perform anywhere near "real life" in the game. That's why I changed all of the players ages to 24 in my leagues hoping that they would develop sooner. About age 29, I intend to move their age back to 24 and then let them play out their careers. Hope this doesn't screw up the game. I choose "career" so that the game will accumulate career stats. Not sure if it does it in the "replay" mode. My point about the Lahman is that you only get the player's stats for the year you import him. The batting and pitching ratings seem to be accurate for that year only, but many times not close to their career averages, but range and arm ratings, and perhaps fielding averages, seems to be randomly assigned and are not accurate...therefore much research and editing is required. It took me 6 months to set up 4 separate leagues...a total of 2000 alltime allstars. If I download Ankit's Career Average Db, will that import the players with ACCURATE career averages...batting, pitching, fielding...including arm, range and speed ratings? I realize that after importing a player, the game will "develop" him and he will not always play as he performed in "real life". I wish I had known it when I first started my leagues. It would have saved me much time and confusion.

08-13-2003, 02:02 PM	#10
adventureran Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Ohio Posts: 447	I believe part of what Henry was trying to say is that not only do they develop differently, but that they also will not import the same way everytime. Also, I do not believe that OOTP accurately imports fielding ratings, at least not all of them such as arm, for example. But, yes, I think Ankit's Career AVerage Db is designed to give more accurate career stats.

08-13-2003, 06:09 PM	#12
ClassicMLB Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 137	Thanks for your help guys. I got the file downloaded but the readme file inside it suggests that you should start a league using Lahman or the original Ankit database and then use the Career Avg Ankit Database for bringing in rookies each season. Have any of your started career leagues using the Career AVG Ankit Database?

08-13-2003, 06:33 PM	#13
adventureran Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Ohio Posts: 447	No. You should follow the instructions in his readme file. It is correct.

08-13-2003, 08:07 PM	#14
H I Mcdonough Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: St. Louis, MO Posts: 291	If I already am 6 seasons into a historical league using the Lahman db, and I would like to switch over to the Ankit career average db......can I do that? Or will that screw everything up? I am guessing I would need to start from scratch.

08-13-2003, 08:19 PM	#15
adventureran Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Ohio Posts: 447	Well, you're liable to get some duplicates since Ankit's db and Lahman's introduces some rookies in different years based on various factors (e.g., at bats, innings pitched, etc.).

08-13-2003, 10:24 PM	#18
ClassicMLB Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 137	Yes I have found from working with it that Ankit's Career Avg DBase isn't worth the effort. The differences in ratings are really unnoticable from Lahman's DBase and trying to work with the Ankit after starting with Lahman's is just asking for trouble. Starting a league with Ankit's Career Avg DBase is also a bad idea because the stat history of the players are all messed up. I would suggest to anyone that they should just use Lahman's and edit the players to whatever degree you want historical accuracy. Most players are somewhat close to "real life" and the variance allows for a more interesting league anyway.

08-14-2003, 12:24 AM	#20
Eugene Church Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 36,205	Batting and pitching ratings are in the ballpark, so to speak, in the Lahman Database. However, fielding ratings are not very reliable. Basestealing ratings are sometimes less than reliable. Thanks to Henry, I looked at Ernie Banks. His batting ratings are reliable, but the fielding is not even close: In Lahman he gets an "E" range at 1B in '61 and '65..."D" in '62. Careerwise, if you look at his fielding stats, he was probably a "B" or arguably a "C"...but nowhere near an "E". At SS Lahman gave him "E" range in '6l when he deserved an "A" range. I'm sorry, but I expect such a wonderful database to be more accurate than this. Basestealing ratings in Lahman can be very misleading. I think they are based on "stealing percentage" and "quantity" doesn't seem to be considered. Someone who steals 5 out of 5 attempts will get a better rating than someone who steals 50 out of 70. Sorry, no facts to back me up...other than importing and editing 2000 players one at a time over a 6 month period and verifying the ratings in Lahman with Baseball-Reference. Ernie Banks averaged 3 stolen bases a year with a high of 9. Yet in one year he was given a "B" rating, which means he might steal 15-25 bases. In 2 of the 3 years Henry used, the Lahman correctly gave Banks an "E" rating, but it really was off one year. I suppose I will just continue to use the Lahman and correct any discrepancies as I edit the players ratings. Ankit may be too difficult for a computer illiterate like me. ClassicMLB did not seem to be to impressed, which made a little impression on me. I also don't want to start my 4 leagues over again. To close, please don't think I'm bashing the Lahman database...it is tremendously helpful...I don't know what in the world I would do without it and the Baseball-Reference. Both are absolute necessities for my leagues. I simply do not understand someone inputting all of that data and giving it away free of charge. One day soon (if my wife will allow it), I intend to made donations to both. I hope anyone who uses them share my feelings. They deserve support. Ankit is to be complimented for all of his great efforts. I have heard only a very, very few negative comments and far, far more compliments.