Concerns about early retirement

mtw · 06-12-2003, 03:00 PM

After simming a league for 25 seasons over the last few days (a process I still find fascinating), I noticed that there were several players on the Career Leader lists who retired with 2.5+ stars left (not including career-ending injuries). Often they came off an injury or performance-related off-year (including one 5 star player), though a couple of players came off one of their best years. Also, a few players had not reached their decline phase. In any case, with that much game left, wouldn't they all want to keep playing?

I know that athletes in general will on rare occasion voluntarily retire while still being one of the best (or at least better) athletes in their field. But it happens very, very rarely, and many of the examples I can think of "unretired" shortly thereafter. Also, baseball is *not* prone to such retirements. In fact, I'm hard-pressed to think of anyone in baseball who has voluntarily retired as one of the better players in the game. Sandy Koufax is the most obvious, though I would call his retirement a career-ending injury rather than voluntary, and Ted Williams had a relatively good offensive last season, though he was only a part-time player and very immobile, and only came back for that season out of professional pride after the worst season of his career. Ryne Sandberg (my childhood baseball idol) retired at 34/35 as a below average player, unretired a year later, and retired as a below average player.

I think OOTP needs to look first and foremost at a player's ability when considering retirement, then age/performance. I don't think anyone who has 2.5+ stars left should retire.

justafan · 06-12-2003, 11:36 PM

I agree.

I had a 4 1/2 star 3B retire with these ratings...
8, 10, 2, 8, 6, 8 and B range.

His last years stats...
.403 40 HR 203 RBI

84CubsFan · 06-13-2003, 12:05 AM

I kind of agree, though not entirely. What about someone like McGwire? Yes, he was injury "prone," but still one hell of a hitter. He simply didn't want to train that hard anymore. I've had players "hang it up" before they were horrible, but never before age 36 or 37, which seems pretty realistic to me.

Of course, there is the FA thing that happens when you have too few teams in your league. Then you do get awesome players retiring because they are asking for too much and no one will sign them. I definitely think that this needs some sort of tweaking.

markprior22 · 06-13-2003, 12:14 AM

I don't know if McGwire is a good example. His body was so worn and he was in so much pain that he really couldn't continue in the manner he was accustomed.

84CubsFan · 06-13-2003, 12:27 AM

Paul Molitor?

84CubsFan · 06-13-2003, 12:46 AM

Dave Kingman?

John C · 06-13-2003, 01:05 AM

Joe DiMaggio?

Might be a not great example, but he didn't want to tarnish the image he had during his heyday.

-John

mtw · 06-13-2003, 06:11 AM

Paul Molitor--Final Year 1998 with Minnesota: .724 OPS as a DH. 1998 American League average OPS: .774. Also had little of his once tremendous speed, but what could you expect at age 42?

Dave Kingman--One of my all-time favorite players, and an interesting example, having hit 35 HR's in his final season (1986). However, I remember this guy and his situation well--no one wanted to sign him. I was dying to see the Cubs bring him back for one more go in LF. We had just signed Dawson, and Kingman at the opposite corner would have been very entertaining, in a painful sort of way. However, when you'll be 39 and you just batted .210 for the season with a .258 OBP as a DH, striking out 1 in 4 at bats (a contact hitter by today's standards, but a windmill in 1986), and are slow-footed and incompetent defensively, 35 homers isn't enough to land you a job, even on the hapless Cubs. His final year OPS was .689 (the lowest in a full season for his career), compared to a league .740. Also, his retirement was forced, not voluntary, and his game at the end was very suspect.

Joe DiMaggio--An interesting example, and one I'd considered, but dismissed. His performance dropped off dramatically during his final year to the lowest output of his career, though still above league average at .787 OPS, compared to a league .727. However, when you factor in pitcher hitting, his performance was probably at best average among position players, and was very much in the middle of the pack among CF's in 1951. At 37, a healthy and focused Joe DiMaggio probably could have played a couple more years at a competent level, with health being the key. In any event, his production and defense were no better than an average CF when he retired.

Steve Kuffrey · 06-13-2003, 06:40 AM

http://www.400softwarestudios.com/bo...threadid=32570

The above thread gives some good input in a related topic and one that we looked at as the player development model was evaluated and adjusted for v5.

While not perfect it is dramatically improved and more in line with reality. Previous versions saw far too many players having too long of a career and the current model I feel brings a more believeable and varied feel to the OOTP baseball universe.

Plus, I guess the way I look at it that unless ALOT of players are retiring in this manner I'd see it as a some guys "going out on top" and figure it was to "spend more time with his family".

RD17 · 06-13-2003, 03:12 PM

I disagree with mtw. I think it adds alot to the game when players occasionally call it quits when they're still extremely productive. In past versions of OOTP, every single guy seemed like they hung around a year or two longer than they should. There are still a few that do that in OOTP5, but having a few guys retire when they still have something left adds alot to the game IMO.

Two good examples of guys retiring early from my solo league:

SP Aron McMullen: 37 years old, still had a 10 rating in avoiding runs but his talent had dropped from B-B-B to G-G-G so he was going to start heading on the downward side of his career. He finished his career with 264 wins, a league record 2.03 career ERA and 9 Cy Young awards. His final season he went 19-5, 2.32. He was in the middle of a long term contract with a bad team, so I'd like to think he decided to retire because he knew he didn't have much of a shot at winning a World Series and wanted to be remembered as a guy who went out on top of his game.

RF Carmelo Salas: I signed this guy to a one year contract at age 39 because he had great leadership skills and a solid bat in RF that I thought might put my team over the top (I'd been to the playoffs 7 straight years without making it to the World Series). Carmelo had 477 career HRs in 18 big league seasons, but he'd played for a couple of bad teams and only played in 4 career postseason games. He ended up hitting his 500th HR in September then put an exclamation point on a HOF career by hitting .353 in the postseason to lead my team to the World Championship. Carmelo still had ratings of 6-7-6 at the end of the season and could easily have played another season or two, but with his career goals fulfilled, he went off into the sunset a champion.

mtw · 06-13-2003, 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Steve Kuffrey
Plus, I guess the way I look at it that unless ALOT of players are retiring in this manner I'd see it as a some guys "going out on top" and figure it was to "spend more time with his family".

I guess my point was that this doesn't really happen for players who can still compete. I guess it's a matter of how much OOTP wants to mimic reality in this aspect of player development.

I do remember the thread on player development and the bit about average retirement age being in line with reality. And from my own experience, I recognize the improvement made in this area. My suggestion would likely not have much of an impact on average retirement age, as it is not "A LOT" of players who are retiring early, as you put it. In the particular league I simmed, there were 8 players on career leader lists in Home Runs, Hits and Stolen Bases who had at least 2.5 stars remaining after 25 years of simming. In fact, with that number compared to the league as a whole, extending the careers of these players may even bring the OOTP retirement age that much closer to dead on perfect. In any event, to me it seems that reality would have these players keep going when they have something to play for, as in achieving records.

An example in the league I simmed is a guy who had almost the same number of hits at age 37 as Pete Rose (he was 43 short), had just collected 184 hits the season before his retirement, and had no ill affects from aging visible (his injury rating was still Durable and his ratings as high as ever). A guy like that would not retire. But because it's got to be very hard to program the game to look at potential milestones/records/championships won as retirement factors, my suggestion is to look at the player's ability compared to the league (i.e. the star rating) and then decide whether to retire. I strongly believe players who are still able to compete at high level (2.5+ stars) should keep playing.

06-12-2003, 03:00 PM	#1
mtw All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 653	Concerns about early retirement After simming a league for 25 seasons over the last few days (a process I still find fascinating), I noticed that there were several players on the Career Leader lists who retired with 2.5+ stars left (not including career-ending injuries). Often they came off an injury or performance-related off-year (including one 5 star player), though a couple of players came off one of their best years. Also, a few players had not reached their decline phase. In any case, with that much game left, wouldn't they all want to keep playing? I know that athletes in general will on rare occasion voluntarily retire while still being one of the best (or at least better) athletes in their field. But it happens very, very rarely, and many of the examples I can think of "unretired" shortly thereafter. Also, baseball is not prone to such retirements. In fact, I'm hard-pressed to think of anyone in baseball who has voluntarily retired as one of the better players in the game. Sandy Koufax is the most obvious, though I would call his retirement a career-ending injury rather than voluntary, and Ted Williams had a relatively good offensive last season, though he was only a part-time player and very immobile, and only came back for that season out of professional pride after the worst season of his career. Ryne Sandberg (my childhood baseball idol) retired at 34/35 as a below average player, unretired a year later, and retired as a below average player. I think OOTP needs to look first and foremost at a player's ability when considering retirement, then age/performance. I don't think anyone who has 2.5+ stars left should retire. __________________ Over-Zealous Apologist

06-12-2003, 11:36 PM	#2
justafan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: S. Carolina Posts: 5,297	I agree. I had a 4 1/2 star 3B retire with these ratings... 8, 10, 2, 8, 6, 8 and B range. His last years stats... .403 40 HR 203 RBI __________________

06-13-2003, 12:05 AM	#3
84CubsFan Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 376	I kind of agree, though not entirely. What about someone like McGwire? Yes, he was injury "prone," but still one hell of a hitter. He simply didn't want to train that hard anymore. I've had players "hang it up" before they were horrible, but never before age 36 or 37, which seems pretty realistic to me. Of course, there is the FA thing that happens when you have too few teams in your league. Then you do get awesome players retiring because they are asking for too much and no one will sign them. I definitely think that this needs some sort of tweaking. Last edited by 84CubsFan; 06-13-2003 at 12:08 AM.

06-13-2003, 01:05 AM	#7
John C Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Albion, RI Posts: 2,261 Infractions: 1/0 (0)	Joe DiMaggio? Might be a not great example, but he didn't want to tarnish the image he had during his heyday. -John __________________ Facebook \| My Videos

06-13-2003, 06:11 AM	#8
mtw All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 653	Paul Molitor--Final Year 1998 with Minnesota: .724 OPS as a DH. 1998 American League average OPS: .774. Also had little of his once tremendous speed, but what could you expect at age 42? Dave Kingman--One of my all-time favorite players, and an interesting example, having hit 35 HR's in his final season (1986). However, I remember this guy and his situation well--no one wanted to sign him. I was dying to see the Cubs bring him back for one more go in LF. We had just signed Dawson, and Kingman at the opposite corner would have been very entertaining, in a painful sort of way. However, when you'll be 39 and you just batted .210 for the season with a .258 OBP as a DH, striking out 1 in 4 at bats (a contact hitter by today's standards, but a windmill in 1986), and are slow-footed and incompetent defensively, 35 homers isn't enough to land you a job, even on the hapless Cubs. His final year OPS was .689 (the lowest in a full season for his career), compared to a league .740. Also, his retirement was forced, not voluntary, and his game at the end was very suspect. Joe DiMaggio--An interesting example, and one I'd considered, but dismissed. His performance dropped off dramatically during his final year to the lowest output of his career, though still above league average at .787 OPS, compared to a league .727. However, when you factor in pitcher hitting, his performance was probably at best average among position players, and was very much in the middle of the pack among CF's in 1951. At 37, a healthy and focused Joe DiMaggio probably could have played a couple more years at a competent level, with health being the key. In any event, his production and defense were no better than an average CF when he retired. __________________ Over-Zealous Apologist Last edited by mtw; 06-13-2003 at 06:15 AM.

06-13-2003, 12:14 AM	#4
markprior22 All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: springfield, illinois Posts: 1,235	I don't know if McGwire is a good example. His body was so worn and he was in so much pain that he really couldn't continue in the manner he was accustomed.

06-13-2003, 12:27 AM	#5
84CubsFan Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 376	Paul Molitor?

06-13-2003, 12:46 AM	#6
84CubsFan Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 376	Dave Kingman?

06-13-2003, 06:40 AM	#9
Steve Kuffrey Administrator Join Date: Jul 1999 Location: S.E. TN - Georgia born and raised Posts: 17,023	http://www.400softwarestudios.com/bo...threadid=32570 The above thread gives some good input in a related topic and one that we looked at as the player development model was evaluated and adjusted for v5. While not perfect it is dramatically improved and more in line with reality. Previous versions saw far too many players having too long of a career and the current model I feel brings a more believeable and varied feel to the OOTP baseball universe. Plus, I guess the way I look at it that unless ALOT of players are retiring in this manner I'd see it as a some guys "going out on top" and figure it was to "spend more time with his family". __________________ Steve Kuffrey DABS Atlanta Braves - 2008 Eastern Division Champ *DBLC Atlanta Braves - 2011, 2014 East Division Champ, 2012, 2013 NL Wildcard Baseball Maelstrom-Montreal Expos-2013 Tourney winner, 2014 WC Team Sparky's League - Tampa Bay D'Rays Epicenter Baseball League - Astros 2014 The CBL Rewind - Phillies '95

06-13-2003, 03:12 PM	#10
RD17 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2002 Posts: 53	I disagree with mtw. I think it adds alot to the game when players occasionally call it quits when they're still extremely productive. In past versions of OOTP, every single guy seemed like they hung around a year or two longer than they should. There are still a few that do that in OOTP5, but having a few guys retire when they still have something left adds alot to the game IMO. Two good examples of guys retiring early from my solo league: SP Aron McMullen: 37 years old, still had a 10 rating in avoiding runs but his talent had dropped from B-B-B to G-G-G so he was going to start heading on the downward side of his career. He finished his career with 264 wins, a league record 2.03 career ERA and 9 Cy Young awards. His final season he went 19-5, 2.32. He was in the middle of a long term contract with a bad team, so I'd like to think he decided to retire because he knew he didn't have much of a shot at winning a World Series and wanted to be remembered as a guy who went out on top of his game. RF Carmelo Salas: I signed this guy to a one year contract at age 39 because he had great leadership skills and a solid bat in RF that I thought might put my team over the top (I'd been to the playoffs 7 straight years without making it to the World Series). Carmelo had 477 career HRs in 18 big league seasons, but he'd played for a couple of bad teams and only played in 4 career postseason games. He ended up hitting his 500th HR in September then put an exclamation point on a HOF career by hitting .353 in the postseason to lead my team to the World Championship. Carmelo still had ratings of 6-7-6 at the end of the season and could easily have played another season or two, but with his career goals fulfilled, he went off into the sunset a champion.