rating vs performance

Braden · 12-14-2025, 02:12 PM

Why is there such dichotomy between a players ratings and performance in a lot of case? Hard to set a winning line without a way to decide who to use.

alanohio · 12-14-2025, 07:08 PM

ok, deleted

Braden · 12-14-2025, 07:10 PM

No, I am thinking of it from a logical standpoint. It has nothing to do with you analogy.

yanko · 12-16-2025, 04:30 PM

Frankly, I don't think the ratings even matter. Like at all. League play seems to be nothing more than a lottery game. If you win the hidden lottery conducted at the start of the season then basically everything you do works, if you don't win it then nothing you do helps. About the only thing you can try to do is to basically replace your whole team mid-season to get new dice rolls on players because you can't shake guys out of slumps.

Three seasons ago I won a WS in a low diamond league and the following year it was battling for dead last in HD. Ok, fine it's a higher league so when I got demoted, same thing. Dead last in LD. Like WTF? It's not like I'm not keeping my team up to date. I added several 104 guys as soon as they came out (Vladdy, Cabrera, Yamamoto, etc.). The team is filled with 104 guys, VE 103/102 guys and yet every single one is performing not just bad but league worst bad. Right now in my current league I have the worst performing Cabrera, Vladdy, Yamamoto, Guidry (9+ ERA!), SJ Wood, Gibson and Campy but somehow Heine Zimmerman who I subbed in leads the team with a 187 OPS+ in 13 games. The only silver lining is if the second half lottery goes my way and I somehow make the playoffs (doubtful) that I can win the playoff lottery.

Braden · 12-16-2025, 08:43 PM

It would seem to me that a player should perform close to the ratings assigned by OOTP. If not, what the heck is the purpose or reason to play. Also, if you are one that buys points that go to the cash cow, why bother if the ratings have no relevance?

Fabtron7 · 12-17-2025, 02:24 PM

When you get to the higher levels of league play, the variance involved in card performance is crazy.

Braden · 12-17-2025, 08:04 PM

Logic & common sense leads one to believe that the ratings should be the main driver of performance. Whoever developed programing of the game play seems to be more focused on buying cards/points instead of performance. $$$$$$

daves · 12-17-2025, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fabtron7

When you get to the higher levels of league play, the variance involved in card performance is crazy.

Is there a word crazier than crazy? Idiotic?

Fabtron7 · 12-17-2025, 09:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daves

Is there a word crazier than crazy? Idiotic?

I think the best word is unfortunate.

LeeD · 12-20-2025, 09:58 PM

Unfortunate?!?!?! How about this one? Miggy goes from league MVP to replacement level. Still seven games to play, so if he goes 28-for-28 with 17 home runs and 11 doubles....

YankeeCpt · 12-23-2025, 10:01 PM

I 100% agree with this.
Year to year it is a lottery about who will perform and who wont.
No rhyme or reason.
I flamed championship series and for some reason I shot up 3 levels.

Chris Sale 101, Randy Johnson 101 consistently suck... at every level.
Are certain cards marked for success? My randy and sale suck at bronze and gold.
not sure why they wouldnt dominate at some point.

LeeD · 12-23-2025, 10:29 PM

Sale should be OK depending on level. Johnson is a flyball pitcher who gets eaten up by right-handed power hitters (and there are a lot of those at every level).

rburgh · 12-28-2025, 11:47 PM

Bill James noticed when he first started studying FB/GB tendencies for pitchers and hitters is that FB hitters hit GB pitchers better than they hit FB pitchers. But when you think about that, it's actually logical; FB pitchers try to make you hit the bottom half of the ball. FB hitters try to swing under where they think the ball will be. So they hit popups and lazy fly balls.

The same with GB hitters and GB pitchers.

But the power hitters still get their HR's, because they have the bat speed, it's just that their median launch angle is higher than normal against FB pitchers. This effect applies as well for GB hitters, but their increase in launch angle usually just means they hit more line drives against FB pitchers than they usually do..

12-14-2025, 02:12 PM	#1
Braden All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2021 Posts: 598	rating vs performance Why is there such dichotomy between a players ratings and performance in a lot of case? Hard to set a winning line without a way to decide who to use.

12-14-2025, 07:08 PM	#2
alanohio Minors (Double A) Join Date: Dec 2024 Posts: 103	ok, deleted Last edited by alanohio; 12-15-2025 at 11:43 AM.

12-16-2025, 04:30 PM	#4
yanko Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 26	Frankly, I don't think the ratings even matter. Like at all. League play seems to be nothing more than a lottery game. If you win the hidden lottery conducted at the start of the season then basically everything you do works, if you don't win it then nothing you do helps. About the only thing you can try to do is to basically replace your whole team mid-season to get new dice rolls on players because you can't shake guys out of slumps. Three seasons ago I won a WS in a low diamond league and the following year it was battling for dead last in HD. Ok, fine it's a higher league so when I got demoted, same thing. Dead last in LD. Like WTF? It's not like I'm not keeping my team up to date. I added several 104 guys as soon as they came out (Vladdy, Cabrera, Yamamoto, etc.). The team is filled with 104 guys, VE 103/102 guys and yet every single one is performing not just bad but league worst bad. Right now in my current league I have the worst performing Cabrera, Vladdy, Yamamoto, Guidry (9+ ERA!), SJ Wood, Gibson and Campy but somehow Heine Zimmerman who I subbed in leads the team with a 187 OPS+ in 13 games. The only silver lining is if the second half lottery goes my way and I somehow make the playoffs (doubtful) that I can win the playoff lottery. Last edited by yanko; 12-16-2025 at 04:32 PM.

12-17-2025, 02:24 PM	#6
Fabtron7 All Star Starter Join Date: Feb 2020 Posts: 1,094	When you get to the higher levels of league play, the variance involved in card performance is crazy. __________________

12-20-2025, 09:58 PM	#10
LeeD All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2022 Posts: 880	Unfortunate?!?!?! How about this one? Miggy goes from league MVP to replacement level. Still seven games to play, so if he goes 28-for-28 with 17 home runs and 11 doubles.... Attached Images

12-14-2025, 07:10 PM	#3
Braden All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2021 Posts: 598	No, I am thinking of it from a logical standpoint. It has nothing to do with you analogy.

12-16-2025, 08:43 PM	#5
Braden All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2021 Posts: 598	It would seem to me that a player should perform close to the ratings assigned by OOTP. If not, what the heck is the purpose or reason to play. Also, if you are one that buys points that go to the cash cow, why bother if the ratings have no relevance?

12-17-2025, 08:04 PM	#7
Braden All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2021 Posts: 598	Logic & common sense leads one to believe that the ratings should be the main driver of performance. Whoever developed programing of the game play seems to be more focused on buying cards/points instead of performance. $$$$$$

12-23-2025, 10:01 PM	#11
YankeeCpt Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 46	I 100% agree with this. Year to year it is a lottery about who will perform and who wont. No rhyme or reason. I flamed championship series and for some reason I shot up 3 levels. Chris Sale 101, Randy Johnson 101 consistently suck... at every level. Are certain cards marked for success? My randy and sale suck at bronze and gold. not sure why they wouldnt dominate at some point. __________________ Click on settings either on the OOTP main page or if you are in a game and click on file. Click on Expert and down where it says "Use windows DPI scaling" turn that to Always Off and then close the game and reopen it.

12-23-2025, 10:29 PM	#12
LeeD All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2022 Posts: 880	Sale should be OK depending on level. Johnson is a flyball pitcher who gets eaten up by right-handed power hitters (and there are a lot of those at every level).

12-28-2025, 11:47 PM	#13
rburgh All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 1,077	The funny thing about the game Bill James noticed when he first started studying FB/GB tendencies for pitchers and hitters is that FB hitters hit GB pitchers better than they hit FB pitchers. But when you think about that, it's actually logical; FB pitchers try to make you hit the bottom half of the ball. FB hitters try to swing under where they think the ball will be. So they hit popups and lazy fly balls. The same with GB hitters and GB pitchers. But the power hitters still get their HR's, because they have the bat speed, it's just that their median launch angle is higher than normal against FB pitchers. This effect applies as well for GB hitters, but their increase in launch angle usually just means they hit more line drives against FB pitchers than they usually do..