Misleading headline leads to rant.

Déjà Bru · 05-07-2025, 01:33 PM

This is the headline that I read. (I am not bothering to transcribe this The Athletic article. It's not worth the effort.)

Ten early season MLB numbers that could be cause for alarm

My reaction was, "OMG, what is wrong with baseball now?" The answer: Nothing. Nothing new, anyway.

Following are the "Ten early season MLB numbers that could be cause for alarm".

Texas Rangers: 34 percent chase rate — No team is swinging at more than half the pitches they are seeing this year other than the Rangers, and no team has increased their swing rate year over year as much as the Rangers, and no team has increased swinging at pitches outside the strike zone as much as the Rangers.

Baltimore Orioles starters: 97 Pitching+ — If pitching can be broken down into having good stuff and locating it, then the Orioles’ pitching staff is in trouble in more ways than their ERA alone points out. Here are the bottom rotations in the big leagues by Pitching+, which looks at the shapes of pitches (through Stuff+) and then adds in command (through Location+).

Toronto Blue Jays: .686 OPS in the heart of the plate — No team in baseball is worse right now on pitches in the heart of the plate.

Ryan Pressly, Chicago Cubs: 93 Stuff+ — While starting pitching is more complicated than just investigating how good a player’s stuff is, relieving is much more reliant on having good velocity . . . Here are the relievers with three or more saves this year, sorted backward by Stuff+ . . .

Los Angeles Dodgers: 157 innings by starters — Going into Tuesday’s games, Royals starters had already thrown 46 more innings than Dodgers starters this year. That means Dodgers starters are on pace for a bottom-five innings output of all time, and are going 4.5 innings, on average, while their Royals counterparts are going a full inning deeper in the game. That may not be surprising, given the injuries that have hit in Los Angeles this year (and every year).

Michael Toglia, Colorado Rockies: 40 percent hard-hit rate — If you’re going to be a 6-foot-5 first baseman who strikes out more than 99 percent of baseball, then you better do one thing really well: hit the ball hard. And last year, Michael Toglia did. He was in the 94th percentile for hard-hit rate (how often you hit the ball over 95 mph), and in the top 10 for all sorts of stuff. His Statcast profile was lit up red. This year? Not so much.

Nolan Gorman, St. Louis Cardinals: 70.5 mph swing speed — The one thing Toglia still does that could save his season is swing the bat hard, as he’s still in the 69th percentile for bat speed. The Cardinals’ oft-whiffing power-hitting struggler can’t say the same. Gorman’s bat speed is down more than any other qualified hitter, all the way to the 29th percentile, down nearly three ticks from last year, when he was in the 70th percentile in that metric.

Athletics: 172 home run park factor — Right now, the easiest park to homer in at night is Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Right now, the sixth-hardest place to hit a homer in during the day is Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Over in Tampa, Steinbrenner Field goes from the sixth-friendliest park overall during the day to a neutral park at night. Michael Rosen over at FanGraphs pointed out that the Rays temporary home is likely to be the most wind-affected park in the big leagues, but Sutter could be close behind.

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels: Minus-10 Stuff+ — Here are the starters who haven’t changed roles, have pitched at least 10 innings and have lost the most Stuff+ compared to last season.

Cleveland Guardians: Minus-23 run differential - Are the Guardians a good team right now? They’ve been outscored by 23 runs and their pitching staff has been all over this article, and not in a good way. They’re the only team in baseball that’s been outscored, is projected to be outscored and is also projected to finish over .500 by FanGraphs.

Now, how to approach this? I think in two parts.

First, how is any of this "a cause for alarm"? Maybe for the teams and individual players mentioned, but hardly for baseball. Take another look at that headline and the article subtitles and see if you don't get the same initial impression that I did. At best it's click bait which is unworthy of the New York Times and The Athletic.

The second part is summed up thusly, in my opinion: TMI. Too Much Information. Too many statistics, so many that it's choking the sport in my eyes.

Okay, so let's get past the usual "dinosaur" and "neanderthal" stuff. As a matter of fact, I have WARmed up to WAR, subject to my four criteria: 1) Reliable source; 2) Stick to that source only; 3) Same formula applied over time with no tweaking; and 4) Don't try to figure it out; just remember 1) and trust it.

I also recognize the validity and interest in things like exit velo, ur, velocity (sorry, David) and ERA+. New concepts that can be grasped without a lot of wrangling or giving credence too readily.

But the kind and volume of nonsense that is now going around is unbelievable. Pitching+ which looks at the shapes of pitches (through Stuff+) and then adds in command (through Location+)?

You can say, just ignore it. Well, three more things. First, it attracts attention, takes up time (witness this rant), and may obscure otherwise valuable information.

For example, let's say I stop watching when my eyes glaze over as the writer stops to explain to me what Pitching+ is (which he will stop doing a couple of weeks from now when it will be assumed as common knowledge). Then I miss the only interesting aspect of this article which is how easy (or hard) it is to hit home runs in the minor league / spring training ballparks now in use: Sutter Health Park in Sacramento and Steinbrenner Field in Tampa.

Second, it can be downright misleading. Say I am a Guardians fan. Run differential is important; wow, my team must stink! Except that they are 21-15 .583 at this moment and what probably happened is that they lost a few games by lopsided scores. Meanwhile, no mention of the true bottom feeders in the league and why they are causes for alarm (to their fans, at least).

And third. It gets difficult, wading through all this stuff, to find what you are looking for, if you can find it at all.

I will end by showing you the column headers for two additional groups of statistics shown by Baseball-Reference now, in addition to their standard group. Lots of arcane numbers.

But here is the thing. The other day, I wanted to know how many save opportunities and blown saves that super-bust (so far) Devin Williams has had this season. Unbelievably, Baseball-Reference does not show either statistic. They are so busy calculating his WAAadj (heh, he has looked like he was going to cry out there at times) that they ignore them. Crowded out by the garbage, perhaps?

Amazin69 · 05-07-2025, 01:36 PM

Don't click the click-bait, Bru!

Déjà Bru · 05-07-2025, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amazin69

Don't click the click-bait, Bru!

Yes, I know. But The Athletic is usually better than that.

Ragnar · 05-14-2025, 08:15 AM

Chase rate reminded me of something. Sometimes I watch world series games from many years ago. Just recently, one from 1960, and 1952 I believe. The one thing that stands out is, rarely do I see a swing and a miss. Some form of contact is made on almost every swing. Game 7 of the 1960 World Series might have had 3 pitches that were whiffed on. The rest were either fouled off or put into play.

05-07-2025, 01:33 PM	#1
Déjà Bru Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Long Island Posts: 11,741	Misleading headline leads to rant. This is the headline that I read. (I am not bothering to transcribe this The Athletic article. It's not worth the effort.) Ten early season MLB numbers that could be cause for alarm My reaction was, "OMG, what is wrong with baseball now?" The answer: Nothing. Nothing new, anyway. Following are the "Ten early season MLB numbers that could be cause for alarm". Texas Rangers: 34 percent chase rate — No team is swinging at more than half the pitches they are seeing this year other than the Rangers, and no team has increased their swing rate year over year as much as the Rangers, and no team has increased swinging at pitches outside the strike zone as much as the Rangers. Baltimore Orioles starters: 97 Pitching+ — If pitching can be broken down into having good stuff and locating it, then the Orioles’ pitching staff is in trouble in more ways than their ERA alone points out. Here are the bottom rotations in the big leagues by Pitching+, which looks at the shapes of pitches (through Stuff+) and then adds in command (through Location+). Toronto Blue Jays: .686 OPS in the heart of the plate — No team in baseball is worse right now on pitches in the heart of the plate. Ryan Pressly, Chicago Cubs: 93 Stuff+ — While starting pitching is more complicated than just investigating how good a player’s stuff is, relieving is much more reliant on having good velocity . . . Here are the relievers with three or more saves this year, sorted backward by Stuff+ . . . Los Angeles Dodgers: 157 innings by starters — Going into Tuesday’s games, Royals starters had already thrown 46 more innings than Dodgers starters this year. That means Dodgers starters are on pace for a bottom-five innings output of all time, and are going 4.5 innings, on average, while their Royals counterparts are going a full inning deeper in the game. That may not be surprising, given the injuries that have hit in Los Angeles this year (and every year). Michael Toglia, Colorado Rockies: 40 percent hard-hit rate — If you’re going to be a 6-foot-5 first baseman who strikes out more than 99 percent of baseball, then you better do one thing really well: hit the ball hard. And last year, Michael Toglia did. He was in the 94th percentile for hard-hit rate (how often you hit the ball over 95 mph), and in the top 10 for all sorts of stuff. His Statcast profile was lit up red. This year? Not so much. Nolan Gorman, St. Louis Cardinals: 70.5 mph swing speed — The one thing Toglia still does that could save his season is swing the bat hard, as he’s still in the 69th percentile for bat speed. The Cardinals’ oft-whiffing power-hitting struggler can’t say the same. Gorman’s bat speed is down more than any other qualified hitter, all the way to the 29th percentile, down nearly three ticks from last year, when he was in the 70th percentile in that metric. Athletics: 172 home run park factor — Right now, the easiest park to homer in at night is Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Right now, the sixth-hardest place to hit a homer in during the day is Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Over in Tampa, Steinbrenner Field goes from the sixth-friendliest park overall during the day to a neutral park at night. Michael Rosen over at FanGraphs pointed out that the Rays temporary home is likely to be the most wind-affected park in the big leagues, but Sutter could be close behind. Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels: Minus-10 Stuff+ — Here are the starters who haven’t changed roles, have pitched at least 10 innings and have lost the most Stuff+ compared to last season. Cleveland Guardians: Minus-23 run differential - Are the Guardians a good team right now? They’ve been outscored by 23 runs and their pitching staff has been all over this article, and not in a good way. They’re the only team in baseball that’s been outscored, is projected to be outscored and is also projected to finish over .500 by FanGraphs. Now, how to approach this? I think in two parts. First, how is any of this "a cause for alarm"? Maybe for the teams and individual players mentioned, but hardly for baseball. Take another look at that headline and the article subtitles and see if you don't get the same initial impression that I did. At best it's click bait which is unworthy of the New York Times and The Athletic. The second part is summed up thusly, in my opinion: TMI. Too Much Information. Too many statistics, so many that it's choking the sport in my eyes. Okay, so let's get past the usual "dinosaur" and "neanderthal" stuff. As a matter of fact, I have WARmed up to WAR, subject to my four criteria: 1) Reliable source; 2) Stick to that source only; 3) Same formula applied over time with no tweaking; and 4) Don't try to figure it out; just remember 1) and trust it. I also recognize the validity and interest in things like exit velo, ur, velocity (sorry, David) and ERA+. New concepts that can be grasped without a lot of wrangling or giving credence too readily. But the kind and volume of nonsense that is now going around is unbelievable. Pitching+ which looks at the shapes of pitches (through Stuff+) and then adds in command (through Location+)? You can say, just ignore it. Well, three more things. First, it attracts attention, takes up time (witness this rant), and may obscure otherwise valuable information. For example, let's say I stop watching when my eyes glaze over as the writer stops to explain to me what Pitching+ is (which he will stop doing a couple of weeks from now when it will be assumed as common knowledge). Then I miss the only interesting aspect of this article which is how easy (or hard) it is to hit home runs in the minor league / spring training ballparks now in use: Sutter Health Park in Sacramento and Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. Second, it can be downright misleading. Say I am a Guardians fan. Run differential is important; wow, my team must stink! Except that they are 21-15 .583 at this moment and what probably happened is that they lost a few games by lopsided scores. Meanwhile, no mention of the true bottom feeders in the league and why they are causes for alarm (to their fans, at least). And third. It gets difficult, wading through all this stuff, to find what you are looking for, if you can find it at all. I will end by showing you the column headers for two additional groups of statistics shown by Baseball-Reference now, in addition to their standard group. Lots of arcane numbers. But here is the thing. The other day, I wanted to know how many save opportunities and blown saves that super-bust (so far) Devin Williams has had this season. Unbelievably, Baseball-Reference does not show either statistic. They are so busy calculating his WAAadj (heh, he has looked like he was going to cry out there at times) that they ignore them. Crowded out by the garbage, perhaps? Attached Images __________________ - Bru

05-07-2025, 01:36 PM	#2
Amazin69 Banned Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Palmetto Pride! Posts: 4,218 Infractions: 0/4 (4)	Don't click the click-bait, Bru!

05-14-2025, 08:15 AM	#4
Ragnar Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 3,583	Chase rate reminded me of something. Sometimes I watch world series games from many years ago. Just recently, one from 1960, and 1952 I believe. The one thing that stands out is, rarely do I see a swing and a miss. Some form of contact is made on almost every swing. Game 7 of the 1960 World Series might have had 3 pitches that were whiffed on. The rest were either fouled off or put into play.