Preloaded Draft Prospect Variance

[Shdoxz]

I posted this on reddit, but perhaps this is the more appropriate place given the lack of response on reddit ---

I'm still learning the game (played back in the day and have done a few short runs in 25 to get the hang of it again). This playthrough I'm focusing on the ins and outs of drafting/developing

This is a bit in the weeds, but my question is this: How much variance occurs with the prospects at the top of the first few years of preloaded drafts?

The reason I ask is because I noticed something odd in my current 2025 draft. In my last two playthroughs (using the same outstanding/favor ability scout) Ethan Jackson was highly rated (4+ stars) and went #1 overall. Ethan Petry also went top 3 each time (I just happened to notice all the Ethans). They both developed into their potential.

This playthrough, Jackson and Petry are both rated a paltry 2.5 stars (by my scout and OSA which forecast Jackson to go #15) and yet, teams passed on numerous more highly rated prospects to still draft Jackson #1 overall and Petry at 3.

Are the Ethans actually still highly rated and for whatever reason my scout + OSA are way off this year? Or are the ai managed teams just heavily biased to a preloaded draft order regardless of whatever variance occurs with prospects themselves?


-p.s. scouting budget and other setting remained consistent for each playthrough

P.p.s. I've also noticed similar behavior with Weatherholt who has always been draft #2 in 2024 despite having ratings placing him in the teens

[ayaghmour2]

The devs make changes to the draft classes throughout the year, so you may see some changes in the ratings save to save. I'd also add that once the players are loaded, if you have development for draft eligible players turned on, once you advance a day everyone is going to progress differently. Your scout and OSA in the 2.5 Holliday sim are probably just wrong. Higher rated is relative, and with scouting on each team is going to be looking at a different set of reports

In terms of a hidden bias towards an order, no, though once the draft occurs in real life (or shortly after) you can import the real life order when you reach the draft