Statistical accuracy comparison between DMB and OOTP for 2023 season

orbops · 12-09-2025, 01:33 PM

I used the 2023 As Played Season to compare the statistical accuracy of DMB and OOTP. For both, I ran the sim 5 times. I was surprised that the accuracy between DMB and OOTP was closer than I expected.

Interestingly, when looking at each teams win/loss record, I calculated the delta between DMB-actual wins, and OOTP-actual wins. The overall delta wins for DMB was zero, while OOTP was within 3 wins.
When looking at this delta, it seems to imply, as an example, that the 2023 Orioles in real life performed much better than the stats would indicate, while the 2023 Royals in real life performed much worse than the stats would indicate.

Team Batting
Avg OBP SLG Sim
0.248 0.32 0.414 Actual
0.248 0.32 0.413 DMB Avg
0.249 0.32 0.416 OOTPAvg

Team Pitching
ERA BABIP OPS Sim
4.33 0.297 0.734 Actual
4.26 0.294 0.734 DMB Avg
4.38 0.295 0.736 OOTP Avg

Division Standings
Actual DMB OOTP DMB OOTP
AL East W L W L W L W delta W delta
Baltimore Orioles 101 61 90 72 88 74 -11 -13
Tampa Bay Rays 99 63 94 68 96 66 -5 -3
Toronto Blue Jays 89 73 88 74 82 80 -1 -7
New York Yankees 82 80 78 84 82 80 -4 0
Boston Red Sox 78 84 79 83 80 82 1 2

Actual DMB OOTP DMB OOTP
AL Central W L W L W L W delta W delta
Minnesota Twins 87 75 95 67 91 71 8 4
Detroit Tigers 78 84 77 85 72 90 -1 -6
Cleveland Guardians 76 86 76 86 79 83 0 3
Chicago White Sox 61 101 54 108 63 99 -7 2
Kansas City Royals 56 106 67 95 70 92 11 14

Actual DMB OOTP DMB OOTP
AL West W L W L W L W delta W delta
Houston Astros 90 72 91 71 94 68 1 4
Texas Rangers 90 72 95 67 96 66 5 6
Seattle Mariners 88 74 95 67 89 73 7 1
Los Angeles Angels 73 89 76 86 74 88 3 1
Oakland Athletics 50 112 55 107 52 110 5 2

Actual DMB OOTP DMB OOTP
NL East W L W L W L W delta W delta
Atlanta Braves 104 58 100 62 97 65 -4 -7
Philadelphia Phillies 90 72 96 66 104 58 6 14
Miami Marlins 84 78 76 86 75 87 -8 -9
New York Mets 75 87 78 84 79 83 3 4
Washington Nationals 71 91 63 99 61 101 -8 -10

Actual DMB OOTP DMB OOTP
NL Central W L W L W L W delta W delta
Milwaukee Brewers 92 70 84 78 99 63 -8 7
Chicago Cubs 83 79 86 76 91 71 3 8
Cincinnati Reds 82 80 76 86 78 84 -6 -4
Pittsburgh Pirates 76 86 74 88 69 93 -2 -7
St. Louis Cardinals 71 91 78 84 73 89 7 2
Actual DMB OOTP DMB OOTP

NL West W L W L W L W delta W delta
Los Angeles Dodgers 100 62 101 61 101 62 1 1
Arizona Diamondbacks 84 78 85 77 86 76 1 2
San Diego Padres 82 80 91 71 88 74 9 6
San Francisco Giants 79 83 76 86 77 85 -3 -2
Colorado Rockies 59 103 54 108 46 116 -5 -13
sum of W delta 0 3

Here is the data for runs scored (allowed has the same value). Interestingly, OOTP came out closer to the real data than DMB - but it terms of percentage both are within 1% of actual runs scored.

Team Runs Scored
RS Sim Percent Delta
22432 Actual
22277 DMB Avg -0.69%
22485 OOTP Avg 0.24%

Garlon · 12-09-2025, 07:06 PM

The sum of the W delta for both DMB and OOTP both must actually be 0 because for every win for a team will result in a loss for another team. The only way OOTP could have generated a sum of 3 more wins is if there were three game #163 tie breaker games played in your tests.

OOTZP ended up on average with +53 runs scored for the league and DMB ended up on average at -155. Both are excellent results. Since there are 30 teams this comes out to +1.7 runs per team and for DMB -5.1 runs per team for the season.

In 2023 the Orioles Pythagorean Record was 94-68 but they went 101-61, so they were 7 wins better than expected. The Royals in 2023 were actually -8 wins worse than expected and the Padres were -10 wins worse than expected, so it is no surprise to see that they performed better than their actual record in both DMB and OOTP.

12-09-2025, 01:33 PM	#1
orbops Minors (Single A) Join Date: Sep 2017 Location: Cannon Beach, OR Posts: 77	Statistical accuracy comparison between DMB and OOTP for 2023 season I used the 2023 As Played Season to compare the statistical accuracy of DMB and OOTP. For both, I ran the sim 5 times. I was surprised that the accuracy between DMB and OOTP was closer than I expected. Interestingly, when looking at each teams win/loss record, I calculated the delta between DMB-actual wins, and OOTP-actual wins. The overall delta wins for DMB was zero, while OOTP was within 3 wins. When looking at this delta, it seems to imply, as an example, that the 2023 Orioles in real life performed much better than the stats would indicate, while the 2023 Royals in real life performed much worse than the stats would indicate. Team Batting Avg OBP SLG Sim 0.248 0.32 0.414 Actual 0.248 0.32 0.413 DMB Avg 0.249 0.32 0.416 OOTPAvg Team Pitching ERA BABIP OPS Sim 4.33 0.297 0.734 Actual 4.26 0.294 0.734 DMB Avg 4.38 0.295 0.736 OOTP Avg Division Standings Actual DMB OOTP DMB OOTP AL East W L W L W L W delta W delta Baltimore Orioles 101 61 90 72 88 74 -11 -13 Tampa Bay Rays 99 63 94 68 96 66 -5 -3 Toronto Blue Jays 89 73 88 74 82 80 -1 -7 New York Yankees 82 80 78 84 82 80 -4 0 Boston Red Sox 78 84 79 83 80 82 1 2 Actual DMB OOTP DMB OOTP AL Central W L W L W L W delta W delta Minnesota Twins 87 75 95 67 91 71 8 4 Detroit Tigers 78 84 77 85 72 90 -1 -6 Cleveland Guardians 76 86 76 86 79 83 0 3 Chicago White Sox 61 101 54 108 63 99 -7 2 Kansas City Royals 56 106 67 95 70 92 11 14 Actual DMB OOTP DMB OOTP AL West W L W L W L W delta W delta Houston Astros 90 72 91 71 94 68 1 4 Texas Rangers 90 72 95 67 96 66 5 6 Seattle Mariners 88 74 95 67 89 73 7 1 Los Angeles Angels 73 89 76 86 74 88 3 1 Oakland Athletics 50 112 55 107 52 110 5 2 Actual DMB OOTP DMB OOTP NL East W L W L W L W delta W delta Atlanta Braves 104 58 100 62 97 65 -4 -7 Philadelphia Phillies 90 72 96 66 104 58 6 14 Miami Marlins 84 78 76 86 75 87 -8 -9 New York Mets 75 87 78 84 79 83 3 4 Washington Nationals 71 91 63 99 61 101 -8 -10 Actual DMB OOTP DMB OOTP NL Central W L W L W L W delta W delta Milwaukee Brewers 92 70 84 78 99 63 -8 7 Chicago Cubs 83 79 86 76 91 71 3 8 Cincinnati Reds 82 80 76 86 78 84 -6 -4 Pittsburgh Pirates 76 86 74 88 69 93 -2 -7 St. Louis Cardinals 71 91 78 84 73 89 7 2 Actual DMB OOTP DMB OOTP NL West W L W L W L W delta W delta Los Angeles Dodgers 100 62 101 61 101 62 1 1 Arizona Diamondbacks 84 78 85 77 86 76 1 2 San Diego Padres 82 80 91 71 88 74 9 6 San Francisco Giants 79 83 76 86 77 85 -3 -2 Colorado Rockies 59 103 54 108 46 116 -5 -13 sum of W delta 0 3 Here is the data for runs scored (allowed has the same value). Interestingly, OOTP came out closer to the real data than DMB - but it terms of percentage both are within 1% of actual runs scored. Team Runs Scored RS Sim Percent Delta 22432 Actual 22277 DMB Avg -0.69% 22485 OOTP Avg 0.24% __________________

12-09-2025, 07:06 PM	#2
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,266	The sum of the W delta for both DMB and OOTP both must actually be 0 because for every win for a team will result in a loss for another team. The only way OOTP could have generated a sum of 3 more wins is if there were three game #163 tie breaker games played in your tests. OOTZP ended up on average with +53 runs scored for the league and DMB ended up on average at -155. Both are excellent results. Since there are 30 teams this comes out to +1.7 runs per team and for DMB -5.1 runs per team for the season. In 2023 the Orioles Pythagorean Record was 94-68 but they went 101-61, so they were 7 wins better than expected. The Royals in 2023 were actually -8 wins worse than expected and the Padres were -10 wins worse than expected, so it is no surprise to see that they performed better than their actual record in both DMB and OOTP.