Arbitration Strategy

Ace1234NY · 04-06-2023, 10:34 PM

Hello,

I did some googling but couldn't find anything from the community on a good strategy when it comes to arbitration offers. I generally try to sign who I can for just under the arbitration estimate, but there are usually 1-2 guys who won't negotiate or want way more than their estimate and so we need to go through arbitration.

Anyway, I was curious how other people decided on arbitration offers. In the past, I tended to make an offer just below the estimate (which I figured was a middle point between player and team ) and pretty much lose every time. Do you usually just offer the arbitration estimate? More? If the player is willing to negotiate, is his initial extension demand what you can expect his arbitration demand to be? Or is that totally unrelated? Just looking for any info that might help me do a better job winning hearings and maybe save a few bucks. Thanks!

MathBandit · 04-07-2023, 12:55 PM

I don't go to arbitration as a general rule. Either re-sign them, or non-tender.

oldfatbaldguy · 04-07-2023, 08:08 PM

I either offer the estimate or withdraw the offer. I still often lose the hearings, so I assume I'd seldom win one if I offered less. I'm not sure the estimate is supposed to be a midpoint. Maybe it's what the team's owner (or accountants) think the player should get?

Bobfather · 04-07-2023, 09:42 PM

I will try to extend all of arb years and/or more. For players, I want to keep.

Brad K · 04-07-2023, 09:54 PM

One of the things OOTP could have done, and it wouldn't surprise me, is to have the estimate be wrong.

TomVeal · 04-07-2023, 11:52 PM

I win the great majority of arbitrations in which I stick to the default estimate, but my preference is to negotiate a deal, which I believe has a small positive effect on the player's willingness to bargain reasonably when he hits FA. I usually offer a little more than the estimate.

Once in a while, a player asks for less than the estimate, which of course is fine with me.

Bulldawgz24 · 04-08-2023, 09:33 AM

Assuming it’s a player I want, last years game I would just offer just below the team estimate and work up from there. Usually would get the team price or lower. Not sure if this years game works out the same

Pelican · 04-08-2023, 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MathBandit

I don't go to arbitration as a general rule. Either re-sign them, or non-tender.

I agree with MathBandit. These are players where you (or your scouts) should have a solid idea of their capabilities, based on the years of MLB service, versus your team’s needs. Arbitration is a crapshoot, and, IRL, can lead to hurt feelings and real animosity. Best to be avoided. If the guy is good and worth keeping, offer a longer-term deal. If not, cut and run. With the best young players, I prefer to overpay them (versus the minimum they would be making) in the first years of in a long-term deal even before arbitration, just to avoid the stupid financial constraints of the initial years.

Ace1234NY · 04-08-2023, 10:18 PM

Well, this off-season I stuck with the arb estimate for the two players I couldn't agree to deals with and won both hearings. So that may be something. Think I'll just stick with the estimate from now on. I agree with everyone else that coming to a deal to avoid arbitration is best. But there are sometimes that for whatever reason a player is upset (often at something not even within my control, like his performance) and he won't negotiate. But he is still useful to the team and I don't want to let him go for free while I still have control.

pgjocki · 04-09-2023, 11:16 PM

Something to keep in mind is that you need to be aware of the market for similar players in your league - especially based on the position. If you have a 2B coming up for arb and his estimate is $8 million and you know that there are not other guys making $8 million a year unless they are vastly superior then either trade or non-tender as it's not worth getting stuck with that deal.

Then as soon as Free Agency opens you can try to sign him for $4-$6 million or just wait a month and see if you can find an equal replacement or if his demand drops.

Players are assets and should be treated as such; some assets you really care about and take great care of and others you are willing to let go or replace quite easily.

Remove emotion if you want to win OR go the emotional route (it can be more fun from a role-playing perspective) and struggle with fan favorites who might not be the best value dollar for dollar.

seadog75 · 04-10-2023, 12:28 PM

I'm not sure how I found this out, but you can always offer a 1-year contract worth 95% of the player's arbitration estimate + $1. The player will accept it every single time. For example, if their arbitration estimate is $1,000,000 then offer $950,001.

I have been doing this for years and has saved me a lot of budget space, especially when I have a lot of arbitration eligible players.

04-06-2023, 10:34 PM	#1
Ace1234NY Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Dec 2020 Posts: 47	Arbitration Strategy Hello, I did some googling but couldn't find anything from the community on a good strategy when it comes to arbitration offers. I generally try to sign who I can for just under the arbitration estimate, but there are usually 1-2 guys who won't negotiate or want way more than their estimate and so we need to go through arbitration. Anyway, I was curious how other people decided on arbitration offers. In the past, I tended to make an offer just below the estimate (which I figured was a middle point between player and team ) and pretty much lose every time. Do you usually just offer the arbitration estimate? More? If the player is willing to negotiate, is his initial extension demand what you can expect his arbitration demand to be? Or is that totally unrelated? Just looking for any info that might help me do a better job winning hearings and maybe save a few bucks. Thanks!

04-07-2023, 09:42 PM	#4
Bobfather All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2016 Location: Boston Ma. Posts: 1,546	I will try to extend all of arb years and/or more. For players, I want to keep. __________________ I play out every game—one pitch mode.

04-07-2023, 09:54 PM	#5
Brad K Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,599 Infractions: 0/2 (3)	One of the things OOTP could have done, and it wouldn't surprise me, is to have the estimate be wrong. __________________ . Pirates Play Moneyball 1951-2008 Ratings and League Totals Modifiers Settings and Auto-calc

04-09-2023, 11:16 PM	#10
pgjocki All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Maryland - just outside DC Posts: 1,581	Something to keep in mind is that you need to be aware of the market for similar players in your league - especially based on the position. If you have a 2B coming up for arb and his estimate is $8 million and you know that there are not other guys making $8 million a year unless they are vastly superior then either trade or non-tender as it's not worth getting stuck with that deal. Then as soon as Free Agency opens you can try to sign him for $4-$6 million or just wait a month and see if you can find an equal replacement or if his demand drops. Players are assets and should be treated as such; some assets you really care about and take great care of and others you are willing to let go or replace quite easily. Remove emotion if you want to win OR go the emotional route (it can be more fun from a role-playing perspective) and struggle with fan favorites who might not be the best value dollar for dollar. __________________ - - - World Series championships: 1926, 1931, 1934, 1942, 1944, 1946, 1964, 1967, 1982, 2006, 2011

04-07-2023, 12:55 PM	#2
MathBandit All Star Starter Join Date: Feb 2021 Posts: 1,445	I don't go to arbitration as a general rule. Either re-sign them, or non-tender.

04-07-2023, 08:08 PM	#3
oldfatbaldguy Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2020 Posts: 377	I either offer the estimate or withdraw the offer. I still often lose the hearings, so I assume I'd seldom win one if I offered less. I'm not sure the estimate is supposed to be a midpoint. Maybe it's what the team's owner (or accountants) think the player should get?

04-07-2023, 11:52 PM	#6
TomVeal All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Spanaway, Washington Posts: 1,238	I win the great majority of arbitrations in which I stick to the default estimate, but my preference is to negotiate a deal, which I believe has a small positive effect on the player's willingness to bargain reasonably when he hits FA. I usually offer a little more than the estimate. Once in a while, a player asks for less than the estimate, which of course is fine with me.

04-08-2023, 09:33 AM	#7
Bulldawgz24 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Nov 2016 Posts: 226	Assuming it’s a player I want, last years game I would just offer just below the team estimate and work up from there. Usually would get the team price or lower. Not sure if this years game works out the same

04-08-2023, 10:18 PM	#9
Ace1234NY Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Dec 2020 Posts: 47	Well, this off-season I stuck with the arb estimate for the two players I couldn't agree to deals with and won both hearings. So that may be something. Think I'll just stick with the estimate from now on. I agree with everyone else that coming to a deal to avoid arbitration is best. But there are sometimes that for whatever reason a player is upset (often at something not even within my control, like his performance) and he won't negotiate. But he is still useful to the team and I don't want to let him go for free while I still have control.

04-10-2023, 12:28 PM	#11
seadog75 Bat Boy Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 17	I'm not sure how I found this out, but you can always offer a 1-year contract worth 95% of the player's arbitration estimate + $1. The player will accept it every single time. For example, if their arbitration estimate is $1,000,000 then offer $950,001. I have been doing this for years and has saved me a lot of budget space, especially when I have a lot of arbitration eligible players.