"top" prospect underperforming

koohead · 08-31-2022, 04:50 PM

What do you guys do when you have a top prospect that has just under performed for 1.5 years at Triple A as well as Spring Training? He's 25, been rated as a top 5 league wide prospect for 3 years, but can't seem to hit over .220 between Double A and Triple A, including a .210 performance over 450 ABs at Triple A last year and so far a .074 AVG over 30 ABs in Spring Training this year. Late bloomer? over rated by the scouts? Normally I'd send him back down to Triple A but at 25 I'm not sure there is much improvement to be had.

mytreds · 08-31-2022, 04:59 PM

If his ratings are good, just stick him in the bigs on the bench and see what happens. It’s not always about the stats.

md40022 · 08-31-2022, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by koohead

What do you guys do when you have a top prospect that has just under performed for 1.5 years at Triple A as well as Spring Training? He's 25, been rated as a top 5 league wide prospect for 3 years, but can't seem to hit over .220 between Double A and Triple A, including a .210 performance over 450 ABs at Triple A last year and so far a .074 AVG over 30 ABs in Spring Training this year. Late bloomer? over rated by the scouts? Normally I'd send him back down to Triple A but at 25 I'm not sure there is much improvement to be had.

Top 5 for 3 years straight sounds like he could have massive trade value as well.

I know the above poster said it's not always about the stats, I'd agree with that in the minors to a certain extent. But at the same time, the stats of the 26 man MLB roster tend to go hand in hand with if the team is winning or losing...... and if he's 25 years old and hasn't been anymore than a .210 hitter between AA, AAA and the bigs, you do have some decision to make it sounds like.

If it was me and I was in "win now" mode, I'd probably be looking to trade him given that he still probably has a ton of trade value. If you're not necessarily in win now mode though, you could hand him the starting job this year and let this be his "sink or swim" year. If he sinks, his value will drop significantly. If he swims, it could be very rewarding obviously. But if he's 25 years old right now..... I would say you have a big decision to make and if it were me, I would base that decision on if I'm contending this season or not.

koohead · 08-31-2022, 11:22 PM

Definitely has trade value. I think I'll send him down and see how he does at Triple A. I intend on contending this season, so I don't have time to play around with him. Will give him a month...if he continues to flounder at Triple A I'll try to flip him for some pitching.

JerseyPirate · 09-01-2022, 06:13 AM

There are a lot of "top prospects" in this version of OOTP that fall flat on their face and never make it in the bigs. Previously, there would only be 15-20 elite prospects in the draft and it made it real boring to be drafting 2 star potential players in the 3rd round. They clearly made a massive overhaul with increasing 3+ star potential but most of them regress over time and suddenly your 4 1/2 star can't miss player is a 2 star potential.

As to your specific player, I'd like to see his breakdown in ratings. If he has low contact and avoiding K's, he's not going to be above .240. I avoid those players and will always grab a high contact and avoids K player with low HR potential because they will perform better in the game.

As for trade value, I doubt you will get what you think he's worth since he's already 25 and he's on a 40 man roster.

billyray1984 · 09-01-2022, 09:33 AM

I never look at spring training stats since they are meaningless due to the low sample size and playing against soft competition, but if the guy can't hit AA or AAA, he's probably not going to pan out. Late bloomers do happen though. If it were me, it would be one last shot at the bigs (150+ AB) and if he sucks, he's gone.

I have had this situation a few years ago in my save. Perennial top 10 propsect since he was signed as an IFA at 16. Torched A and A+ as an underager : his year in A-A+ ball he had a 220 wrc+ in A+. Then he got to AA at 21 and he became a below average bat overnight. Struck out too much and the power was gone. His potential ratings continued to climb but his floor stayed the same. He just couldn't hit enough. Ended up trading him at 24 since I couldn't give him playing time in the majors and he got overtaken by other guys who were way worse potential wise but who could actually contribute at the MLB level. He still had massive trade value due to his prospect status and ceiling. Maybe I promoted him too quick and stunted him. Who knows.

Now he is 27 and has been given three shot at the bigs by his new team, in which he has never been more than passable. So the guy is a AAAA guy or a 4th outfielder/platoon guy.

Curve Ball Dave · 09-01-2022, 11:54 AM

Looks like he's overrated, not as good as scouts think he is. If he struggles at AAA again shop him around for the best prospect you can get.

md40022 · 09-01-2022, 12:15 PM

Just out of curiosity, what position does he play? Any chance he's a catcher?

BBGiovanni · 09-01-2022, 07:02 PM

I don't usually promote guys if they aren't hitting well. Let the player tell you when he's ready with his stats. As others speculate it could have been a talent drop in AA but hopefully your scout would have told you that when re-rating him. I straight up ignore ST stats, 30 AB doesn't show anything and lots will have been against AAAA players or kids.

Also, not to open up the whole SABR can of worms, but a low average guy can still be providing value with homers, walks, and so on that don't show up in his batting average. I assume if he had 50 homers you wouldn't be complaining about AVG

koohead · 09-01-2022, 07:51 PM

So...I sent him back down to Triple A at the end of ST. He hit .280ish over about 3 weeks and then my starting CF hit the DL. So I called him up to allow him to play full time as the starting CF and so far he's keeping up the .280 avg, though no power though (despite 55/60 ratings for Gap and Power). .282/.338/.396 is acceptable...I'll take the solid AVG. hopefully he slugs a bit more over time. Good thing is he still has 2 option years so if he slumps I won't hesitate to send him down.

Bobfather · 09-01-2022, 10:07 PM

On the Pipeline list, what year does it say he should reach the majors?

koohead · 09-01-2022, 11:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobfather

On the Pipeline list, what year does it say he should reach the majors?

last year...where I had him in Triple A for the entire year.

cojo82 · 09-02-2022, 01:30 AM

sounds like a bust.

koohead · 09-02-2022, 01:36 AM

what do you all think about the theory of keeping someone in the minors too long and effectively stunting their development? or impacting their morale so much that they underperform??

locuspc · 09-02-2022, 02:26 AM

I'm not gonna put someone on my roster who hasn't earned the spot just to make him feel better. I'm not your mommy, I got ballgames to win.

hfield007 · 09-02-2022, 04:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by koohead

So...I sent him back down to Triple A at the end of ST. He hit .280ish over about 3 weeks and then my starting CF hit the DL. So I called him up to allow him to play full time as the starting CF and so far he's keeping up the .280 avg, though no power though (despite 55/60 ratings for Gap and Power). .282/.338/.396 is acceptable...I'll take the solid AVG. hopefully he slugs a bit more over time. Good thing is he still has 2 option years so if he slumps I won't hesitate to send him down.

in a modern environment thats an above avg slash line. still had room to grow. doesnt hurt to see what he can do as time progresses. Sometimes top prospects just turn into really solid players for 10 years. and then you try and chase the value of his "true worth" and trade him and regret it later lol.

billyray1984 · 09-02-2022, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by koohead

what do you all think about the theory of keeping someone in the minors too long and effectively stunting their development? or impacting their morale so much that they underperform??

This is true for position players and I see it in every save I have. Pitchers aren't as affected it seems. Once guys hit AAA and/or 24 years old, I make a decision if they have a future in the org or if they are a trade chip. Once a guy hits 25 in AAA, he'll either start to decline or become pissed that he isn't playing in the majors.

For guys who profile to be utility players/injury replacements, I don't care if they are mad and they'll stay in AAA, but for every day players who are blocked and could have value in the trade market, I'll just recycle them for younger players or for players who might be useful to me right now.

MathBandit · 09-03-2022, 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by locuspc

I'm not gonna put someone on my roster who hasn't earned the spot just to make him feel better. I'm not your mommy, I got ballgames to win.

For me the guy batting 9th in my lineup (let alone someone off the bench who starts 1-2 games a week) isn't actually going to affect how many games I win in a meaningful way, so I'd rather at least find out what I have from the player.

Yarideki · 09-03-2022, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MathBandit

For me the guy batting 9th in my lineup (let alone someone off the bench who starts 1-2 games a week) isn't actually going to affect how many games I win in a meaningful way, so I'd rather at least find out what I have from the player.

This is completely off topic, but I wanted to state that I thoroughly enjoy your username. It takes me back to my university years

.

MathBandit · 09-03-2022, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yarideki

This is completely off topic, but I wanted to state that I thoroughly enjoy your username. It takes me back to my university years

.

Haha, I appreciate that! In fact the username specifically comes from my University days, when our Calculus prof had us sign up for a website to submit homework/assignments online that required a username and I wanted to come up with a new username to not dox my online persona at the time - then pretty quickly realized I liked this a lot better than my previous one so started switching to this for accounts from then on.

08-31-2022, 04:50 PM	#1
koohead Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 3,227	"top" prospect underperforming What do you guys do when you have a top prospect that has just under performed for 1.5 years at Triple A as well as Spring Training? He's 25, been rated as a top 5 league wide prospect for 3 years, but can't seem to hit over .220 between Double A and Triple A, including a .210 performance over 450 ABs at Triple A last year and so far a .074 AVG over 30 ABs in Spring Training this year. Late bloomer? over rated by the scouts? Normally I'd send him back down to Triple A but at 25 I'm not sure there is much improvement to be had. __________________ GM - New Jersey Bears of the NPBL;

08-31-2022, 04:59 PM	#2
mytreds All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 1,182	If his ratings are good, just stick him in the bigs on the bench and see what happens. It’s not always about the stats. __________________ “Baseball isn’t statistics; it’s Joe DiMaggio rounding second.” “Once, centuries ago, it was the beloved national pastime of the Americas, Wesley. Abandoned by a society that prized fast food and faster games. Lost to impatience.” “ The term ‘WAR’ should be replaced by ‘WAG’. WAR isn’t an actual measurement; it’s just a wild-ass guess” -Bill James RIP National League 1876-2022 Floreat semper vel invita morte. I make custom ballparks.

08-31-2022, 11:22 PM	#4
koohead Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 3,227	Definitely has trade value. I think I'll send him down and see how he does at Triple A. I intend on contending this season, so I don't have time to play around with him. Will give him a month...if he continues to flounder at Triple A I'll try to flip him for some pitching. __________________ GM - New Jersey Bears of the NPBL;

09-01-2022, 11:54 AM	#7
Curve Ball Dave Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Chicago Posts: 2,374	Looks like he's overrated, not as good as scouts think he is. If he struggles at AAA again shop him around for the best prospect you can get. __________________ "Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.

09-01-2022, 07:02 PM	#9
BBGiovanni All Star Starter Join Date: Aug 2015 Location: Republic of California Posts: 1,910	I don't usually promote guys if they aren't hitting well. Let the player tell you when he's ready with his stats. As others speculate it could have been a talent drop in AA but hopefully your scout would have told you that when re-rating him. I straight up ignore ST stats, 30 AB doesn't show anything and lots will have been against AAAA players or kids. Also, not to open up the whole SABR can of worms, but a low average guy can still be providing value with homers, walks, and so on that don't show up in his batting average. I assume if he had 50 homers you wouldn't be complaining about AVG __________________ Let's Go (San Jose) Giants, Let's Go Mets! Current Project: WBAT/AABBA: Organized Base Ball And the "New Normal" World Baseball Aid Tournament 2023 trophy round underway! Last edited by BBGiovanni; 09-01-2022 at 07:03 PM.

09-01-2022, 06:13 AM	#5
JerseyPirate Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jul 2020 Posts: 172	There are a lot of "top prospects" in this version of OOTP that fall flat on their face and never make it in the bigs. Previously, there would only be 15-20 elite prospects in the draft and it made it real boring to be drafting 2 star potential players in the 3rd round. They clearly made a massive overhaul with increasing 3+ star potential but most of them regress over time and suddenly your 4 1/2 star can't miss player is a 2 star potential. As to your specific player, I'd like to see his breakdown in ratings. If he has low contact and avoiding K's, he's not going to be above .240. I avoid those players and will always grab a high contact and avoids K player with low HR potential because they will perform better in the game. As for trade value, I doubt you will get what you think he's worth since he's already 25 and he's on a 40 man roster.

09-01-2022, 09:33 AM	#6
billyray1984 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jun 2021 Posts: 216	I never look at spring training stats since they are meaningless due to the low sample size and playing against soft competition, but if the guy can't hit AA or AAA, he's probably not going to pan out. Late bloomers do happen though. If it were me, it would be one last shot at the bigs (150+ AB) and if he sucks, he's gone. I have had this situation a few years ago in my save. Perennial top 10 propsect since he was signed as an IFA at 16. Torched A and A+ as an underager : his year in A-A+ ball he had a 220 wrc+ in A+. Then he got to AA at 21 and he became a below average bat overnight. Struck out too much and the power was gone. His potential ratings continued to climb but his floor stayed the same. He just couldn't hit enough. Ended up trading him at 24 since I couldn't give him playing time in the majors and he got overtaken by other guys who were way worse potential wise but who could actually contribute at the MLB level. He still had massive trade value due to his prospect status and ceiling. Maybe I promoted him too quick and stunted him. Who knows. Now he is 27 and has been given three shot at the bigs by his new team, in which he has never been more than passable. So the guy is a AAAA guy or a 4th outfielder/platoon guy.

09-01-2022, 12:15 PM	#8
md40022 All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 740 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Just out of curiosity, what position does he play? Any chance he's a catcher?

09-01-2022, 07:51 PM	#10
koohead Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 3,227	So...I sent him back down to Triple A at the end of ST. He hit .280ish over about 3 weeks and then my starting CF hit the DL. So I called him up to allow him to play full time as the starting CF and so far he's keeping up the .280 avg, though no power though (despite 55/60 ratings for Gap and Power). .282/.338/.396 is acceptable...I'll take the solid AVG. hopefully he slugs a bit more over time. Good thing is he still has 2 option years so if he slumps I won't hesitate to send him down. __________________ GM - New Jersey Bears of the NPBL;

09-01-2022, 10:07 PM	#11
Bobfather All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2016 Location: Boston Ma. Posts: 1,736	On the Pipeline list, what year does it say he should reach the majors? __________________ I play out every game—one pitch mode.

09-02-2022, 01:30 AM	#13
cojo82 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 44	sounds like a bust.

09-02-2022, 01:36 AM	#14
koohead Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 3,227	what do you all think about the theory of keeping someone in the minors too long and effectively stunting their development? or impacting their morale so much that they underperform?? __________________ GM - New Jersey Bears of the NPBL;

09-02-2022, 02:26 AM	#15
locuspc Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2022 Posts: 303	I'm not gonna put someone on my roster who hasn't earned the spot just to make him feel better. I'm not your mommy, I got ballgames to win.