Hot/Cold players

[ewank]

At one time, I thought I found where the reasoning for hot and cold streaks was listed, I think in the player profile. I can no longer find this. Can someone help me find the individual player reasons for hot and cold streaks?

[Leo_The_Lip]

Originally Posted by ewank

At one time, I thought I found where the reasoning for hot and cold streaks was listed, I think in the player profile. I can no longer find this. Can someone help me find the individual player reasons for hot and cold streaks?

It is not a 'reason', simply a fact. It is merely the very good or very bad production over the past week or so. No magic involved.

[md40022]

Originally Posted by ewank

At one time, I thought I found where the reasoning for hot and cold streaks was listed, I think in the player profile. I can no longer find this. Can someone help me find the individual player reasons for hot and cold streaks?

If a player has a stretch where he performs better or worse than what his normal levels are considered to be, he will develop the hot or the cold icon.

Once he has that icon, his attributes will have a slight increase or a slight decrease (depending on if hot or cold) for a while.

Once he goes through a period of time where he isn't producing at the same hot or cold rate anymore, he will lose the icon. So there isn't a set time period that a guy will remain H or C for. It all depends on how long he keeps performing at that given level.

I don't know if there is a universal rule for a guy to get hot or cold or if it differs from player to player. But a pretty basic example here would be a guy gets 8 hits in a span of 15 at-bats just completely based on the randomness of the simulation. That guy will develop the "hot" icon. Once he has that icon, all of his attributes slightly increase. So when he has that icon he is technically a better player than when he doesn't. At that point he will remain "hot" and performing with higher attributes until the randomness of the simulation has him maybe go 7 or 8 at bats in a row without a hit. He'll lose the "hot" icon at that point. Maybe he stays hot for 3 days. Maybe he stays hot for 3 weeks. All depends on how the sim plays out. Same thing with a guy being cold, but obviously his attributes decease there.

Whether there's an actual criteria that must be met before a guy becomes hot/cold though, such as he must has X amount of multi hit games in a row or something --- I dont know.

[Marinersfan51]

A panel in the team home page can be set to Hot/Cold Streaks and it shows their lines over the streak if that is what you are referring to.

[robc]

Originally Posted by md40022

That guy will develop the "hot" icon. Once he has that icon, all of his attributes slightly increase. So when he has that icon he is technically a better player than when he doesn't. At that point he will remain "hot" and performing with higher attributes until the randomness of the simulation has him maybe go 7 or 8 at bats in a row without a hit. He'll lose the "hot" icon at that point. Maybe he stays hot for 3 days. Maybe he stays hot for 3 weeks. All depends on how the sim plays out. Same thing with a guy being cold, but obviously his attributes decease there.

Unless something has changed recently, I don't think there is any attribute change due to being hot or cold. The hot and cold status is only for informational purposes.

[md40022]

Originally Posted by robc

Unless something has changed recently, I don't think there is any attribute change due to being hot or cold. The hot and cold status is only for informational purposes.

On this thread, per Lukas - "I believe once you actually get the indicator, there's an extremely slight boost or drop to their ratings until you get out of the streak or slump but it's not dramatic enough you should be able to discern with the naked eye, just looking at on player's production."


https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=327201

In my personal opinion (no fact here) I think he might even be putting it mildly when he calls it an "extremely slight boost or drop to their ratings" because to when managing full games for my own team and seeing my own guys be hot or cold game after game, I personally think it's a pretty noticeable boost or drop. IMO those guys clearly play better or play worse for however long they have that icon. I have no stats to back that, but as someone who manages each game and actually "sees" each at bat of those guys, it really seems like the boost/drop is fairly noticeable. Regardless of my opinion though,, there is a boost or drop to the ratings.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by md40022

If a player has a stretch where he performs better or worse than what his normal levels are considered to be, he will develop the hot or the cold icon.

Once he has that icon, his attributes will have a slight increase or a slight decrease (depending on if hot or cold) for a while.

Once he goes through a period of time where he isn't producing at the same hot or cold rate anymore, he will lose the icon. So there isn't a set time period that a guy will remain H or C for. It all depends on how long he keeps performing at that given level.

I don't know if there is a universal rule for a guy to get hot or cold or if it differs from player to player. But a pretty basic example here would be a guy gets 8 hits in a span of 15 at-bats just completely based on the randomness of the simulation. That guy will develop the "hot" icon. Once he has that icon, all of his attributes slightly increase. So when he has that icon he is technically a better player than when he doesn't. At that point he will remain "hot" and performing with higher attributes until the randomness of the simulation has him maybe go 7 or 8 at bats in a row without a hit. He'll lose the "hot" icon at that point. Maybe he stays hot for 3 days. Maybe he stays hot for 3 weeks. All depends on how the sim plays out. Same thing with a guy being cold, but obviously his attributes decease there.

Whether there's an actual criteria that must be met before a guy becomes hot/cold though, such as he must has X amount of multi hit games in a row or something --- I dont know.

Originally Posted by md40022

On this thread, per Lukas - "I believe once you actually get the indicator, there's an extremely slight boost or drop to their ratings until you get out of the streak or slump but it's not dramatic enough you should be able to discern with the naked eye, just looking at on player's production."


https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=327201

In my personal opinion (no fact here) I think he might even be putting it mildly when he calls it an "extremely slight boost or drop to their ratings" because to when managing full games for my own team and seeing my own guys be hot or cold game after game, I personally think it's a pretty noticeable boost or drop. IMO those guys clearly play better or play worse for however long they have that icon. I have no stats to back that, but as someone who manages each game and actually "sees" each at bat of those guys, it really seems like the boost/drop is fairly noticeable. Regardless of my opinion though,, there is a boost or drop to the ratings.

I think this is all accurate. The degree to which there is effect, "extremely slight boost or drop to their ratings" or "pretty noticeable boost or drop", is in the eye of the beholder.

The subtleness of how it's done allows players to play themselves into and out of slumps. There will be debate. Some will say it's not there, others will say it is. Unless Markus or Matt come along and say it is a definite "no" I will believe it is there.

[robc]

Originally Posted by md40022

On this thread, per Lukas - "I believe once you actually get the indicator, there's an extremely slight boost or drop to their ratings until you get out of the streak or slump but it's not dramatic enough you should be able to discern with the naked eye, just looking at on player's production."


https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=327201

In my personal opinion (no fact here) I think he might even be putting it mildly when he calls it an "extremely slight boost or drop to their ratings" because to when managing full games for my own team and seeing my own guys be hot or cold game after game, I personally think it's a pretty noticeable boost or drop. IMO those guys clearly play better or play worse for however long they have that icon. I have no stats to back that, but as someone who manages each game and actually "sees" each at bat of those guys, it really seems like the boost/drop is fairly noticeable. Regardless of my opinion though,, there is a boost or drop to the ratings.

OK, I could be misremembering. I tried to find the post of Markus talking about it but all I could find is that it has been said there are no programmed streaks. Maybe I interpreted that is that there is no rating change when a player is in a streak because that would be causing a streak in my mind. But maybe it's like you said, the game doesn't create streaks but when they happen there is a rating adjustment.

[md40022]

Originally Posted by robc

OK, I could be misremembering. I tried to find the post of Markus talking about it but all I could find is that it has been said there are no programmed streaks. Maybe I interpreted that is that there is no rating change when a player is in a streak because that would be causing a streak in my mind. But maybe it's like you said, the game doesn't create streaks but when they happen there is a rating adjustment.

I would interpret a "programmed streak" as in Mike Trout is going to get hot on August 1st 2023, Aaron Judge is going to get cold on July 18th 2024. As in that is programmed in to happen for a fact. That's definitely not how it works. So if that's what Markus said, I would say he's spot on.



What generates the streak is random. If a .280 hitter hits .400 for a week, which would happen on the randomness of the game, that would make him "hot" and now all of his ratings receive a small uptick until he cools off - again based on the randomness of the game.



I would imagine people who sim through everything may not notice it as much, but as someone who manages every game and sees the hot/cold guy come up to bat again and again I am realllllllly confident that the ratings uptick or downtick is there and maybe even a little more drastic than what Lukas said. That's open for interpretation though.

[BBGiovanni]

Originally Posted by md40022

I would interpret a "programmed streak" as in Mike Trout is going to get hot on August 1st 2023, Aaron Judge is going to get cold on July 18th 2024. As in that is programmed in to happen for a fact. That's definitely not how it works. So if that's what Markus said, I would say he's spot on.

I think that IS how it worked in thumb jockey games I used to play, EA things and whatnot. OOTP definitely doesn't do that IME.

I will add my anecdotal observation that the "cold streak" seems to end when the guy gets a couple hits in a game or hits a homer or something. So I usually will sit a guy for a game or two when the icon first shows up, then move him down in the order and use him as normal. Bench players are harder, pinch-hitting or late inning substitution doesn't give much chance to do that.

Also if I have roster problems (other bench players injured, etc.) or a couple of guys at the same position with options and in a close race I'll send the cold guy down to the minors and bring up the other one. Until he ends up on a cold streak

[md40022]

Originally Posted by BBGiovanni

I will add my anecdotal observation that the "cold streak" seems to end when the guy gets a couple hits in a game or hits a homer or something. So I usually will sit a guy for a game or two when the icon first shows up, then move him down in the order and use him as normal. Bench players are harder, pinch-hitting or late inning substitution doesn't give much chance to do that.

Also if I have roster problems (other bench players injured, etc.) or a couple of guys at the same position with options and in a close race I'll send the cold guy down to the minors and bring up the other one. Until he ends up on a cold streak

Yeah, shaking a guy out of a cold streak can potentially be frustrating. If he's a core member of your lineup, like you said you just move him down in the order and wait it out. But for a platoon player or a bench player, it's real tough to even carry that guy on the roster. He doesn't get enough playing time as is to build up the needed momentum to shake the cold icon and now he's getting even less playing time since he's not performing.



On a different thread a while back I had mentioned how how when that fringe roster guy slumps IRL they can send him down to the minors for he can regain some confidence and work on a few fundamentals and then come back to the majors with a fresh slate. Yet in OOTP you send a cold slump guy down to the minors, he absolutely DOMINATES the minors, you bring him back up to the majors and he's still cold lol. That doesn't make much sense to me, but it is what it is.

[Marinersfan51]

Hot or cold streaks appear to be entirely determined by their recent performance. As an example, if he is hitting .500 over the last 7 games, then he is hot, if he is hitless over his last 20 ABs, then he is cold. It doesn't take time into account, just the stats. So if a player gets hurt while on a hot streak, he will still be hot when he returns. Same if he is sent down to the minors, since streaks are tracked separately in each league.

[tcblcommish]

I usually just ride out the cold streaks. Sometimes I'll give a day off but only when they show any fatigue. I find that the streaks all seem to work themselves out and the more the player plays, the faster he gets out of that cold streak. If he is my best hitter though, I sometimes move him in the line up but that's about it.

Pitchers are the ones that five me up the wall when it comes to cold streaks. Hot streaks are fine, theyll get out of that quickly but cold streaks they tend to be so bad for so long. I've tried everything to get them out of it but so many times they just get lit up like Christmas trees over and over.

I've actually traded relievers because of the cold streak and I struggle to get them out of it. I had one guy who was in a cold streak off and on for 3 months so I just got fed up and dealt him.

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