Expected Value From Packs

[professor ape]

I’ve been tinkering with a sheet to calculate the expected value (EV) of packs based on the L10s of the various cards from a data dump earlier this morning. It’s not perfect but I have been able to pretty well identify the packable cards since reward cards from missions and tournaments would skew the results. I’ve done the calculations based on the published pull rates for cards (1:5 for Bronze, 1:20 for Silver, etc) and assuming a 70/30 split between Live and non-Live cards at all levels. I’m also looking at this from both the viewpoint of the EV if you keep the cards and if you are selling them with the 10% tax.

Standard packs have an EV of 1186 based on the average card values and 1013 based on the median. If you are keeping the cards then at 1000PP per pack, that is a 119% efficiency based on the average L10 and 101% based on the median. If you are selling the cards then the efficiency drops to 107% and 91% respectively.

Silver packs have an EV of 2176 based on the average L10 and 1795 when calculated off of the median L10. At 2000PP per pack their efficiency is about 10% lower than the standard packs at 109% based on average L10 and 90% based on median L10. Those drop to 98% and 81% if you are selling the cards with the tax.

At their current 3000PP price Gold packs are just a bit less efficient than Silver packs at 104% and 89% based on the average and median L10s respectively, 94% and 80% after the tax if you are selling the cards.

[thejojo]

So this means that regular packs are currently worth going for?

[professor ape]

Originally Posted by thejojo

So this means that regular packs are currently worth going for?

It’s all about your priorities. On aggregate, based on current L10s all of the pack types are giving returns that are reasonably close to their prices. Standard packs are the best overall value but about 40% of their EV comes from the fact that you get more shots at Diamond and Perfect cards because you can buy more packs. Think of standard packs as being more of a lottery shot.

Silver packs are more reliable with about 60% of their EV being driven by the guaranteed Silver card. With Live Silver cards still being relatively inflated, you are more likely to get better value from any given pack than you are from a standard pack.

Gold packs get about 70% of their EV from the guaranteed Gold cards but overall have the lowest long term returns because you are paying even more for your shots at the Diamond and Perfect cards.

So overall, if you need a specific card then obviously it is most effective to shop around for it in the Card Shop. If you are generally building your portfolio of cards and want the best shot at the big cards then standard packs are the way to go.

However, if you are feeling thin on Silver or Gold cards then those packs are a reasonable option at their current prices and the current L10s. You are losing some overall EV but are much more targeted in the level of the packs.It’s not a crazy trade off at the current prices.

[Bunktown Ballers]

Originally Posted by professor ape

It’s all about your priorities. On aggregate, based on current L10s all of the pack types are giving returns that are reasonably close to their prices. Standard packs are the best overall value but about 40% of their EV comes from the fact that you get more shots at Diamond and Perfect cards because you can buy more packs. Think of standard packs as being more of a lottery shot.

Silver packs are more reliable with about 60% of their EV being driven by the guaranteed Silver card. With Live Silver cards still being relatively inflated, you are more likely to get better value from any given pack than you are from a standard pack.

Gold packs get about 70% of their EV from the guaranteed Gold cards but overall have the lowest long term returns because you are paying even more for your shots at the Diamond and Perfect cards.

So overall, if you need a specific card then obviously it is most effective to shop around for it in the Card Shop. If you are generally building your portfolio of cards and want the best shot at the big cards then standard packs are the way to go.

However, if you are feeling thin on Silver or Gold cards then those packs are a reasonable option at their current prices and the current L10s. You are losing some overall EV but are much more targeted in the level of the packs.It’s not a crazy trade off at the current prices.

I received a Perfect & Gold card yesterday in a regular pack. The Perfect card was Aaron Judge & the only value in it was resell. Why they make 100 cards that are useless. LIVE 100 cards are only valued to me as resell. Some as good in Iron and Silver leagues only & only a few in Gold.

[LeeD]

Originally Posted by professor ape

I’ve been tinkering with a sheet to calculate the expected value (EV) of packs based on the L10s of the various cards from a data dump earlier this morning. It’s not perfect but I have been able to pretty well identify the packable cards since reward cards from missions and tournaments would skew the results. I’ve done the calculations based on the published pull rates for cards (1:5 for Bronze, 1:20 for Silver, etc) and assuming a 70/30 split between Live and non-Live cards at all levels. I’m also looking at this from both the viewpoint of the EV if you keep the cards and if you are selling them with the 10% tax.

Standard packs have an EV of 1186 based on the average card values and 1013 based on the median. If you are keeping the cards then at 1000PP per pack, that is a 119% efficiency based on the average L10 and 101% based on the median. If you are selling the cards then the efficiency drops to 107% and 91% respectively.

Silver packs have an EV of 2176 based on the average L10 and 1795 when calculated off of the median L10. At 2000PP per pack their efficiency is about 10% lower than the standard packs at 109% based on average L10 and 90% based on median L10. Those drop to 98% and 81% if you are selling the cards with the tax.

At their current 3000PP price Gold packs are just a bit less efficient than Silver packs at 104% and 89% based on the average and median L10s respectively, 94% and 80% after the tax if you are selling the cards.

Thanks for the work. This confirms my impressions after ripping quite a few packs these past two weeks. Those inflated live silver prices can actually be a good thing if you're patient and are willing to sell now and wait for lower prices later.

[professor ape]

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers

I received a Perfect & Gold card yesterday in a regular pack. The Perfect card was Aaron Judge & the only value in it was resell. Why they make 100 cards that are useless. LIVE 100 cards are only valued to me as resell. Some as good in Iron and Silver leagues only & only a few in Gold.

The Live card and non-Live OVR ratings have never been comparable to each other.

[ChessSafari]

All I ever seem to get in my standard packs is nearly worthless LIVE cards. My EV has been more like 20%. Just bad luck I guess.

The gold packs, on the other hand, have been positive EV since the release of the new group of Negro League cards.

I don't doubt your numbers. But I know my own experience has been different.

[professor ape]

Originally Posted by ChessSafari

All I ever seem to get in my standard packs is nearly worthless LIVE cards. My EV has been more like 20%. Just bad luck I guess.

The gold packs, on the other hand, have been positive EV since the release of the new group of Negro League cards.

I don't doubt your numbers. But I know my own experience has been different.

Your experience makes sense. Gold and Silver packs will alway be more reliable in giving you noticeable returns. When you buy a Gold pack you are guaranteed at least one card which at minimum can recover 1000 PPs. Standard packs will be more frustrating as you can go through several packs of practically no value. In the long term it is the increased number of shots you get at Perfect and Diamond cards that boosts the average.
If I get some time and am bored then I will see where things stand currently. I’m guessing that the expected value from all packs has decreased somewhat since I first ran the numbers.

[HondoLane]

Originally Posted by LeeD

Thanks for the work. This confirms my impressions after ripping quite a few packs these past two weeks. Those inflated live silver prices can actually be a good thing if you're patient and are willing to sell now and wait for lower prices later.

So true. I've been selling all of my silvers since the beginning, made a fortune off of it.

Wait until the roster update (finally coming tomorrow) and there will be 10+ new bronze and commons added to most teams. This will cause the EV of the packs to decline significantly after the update with the drop in silver prices.

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by HondoLane

So true. I've been selling all of my silvers since the beginning, made a fortune off of it.

Wait until the roster update (finally coming tomorrow) and there will be 10+ new bronze and commons added to most teams. This will cause the EV of the packs to decline significantly after the update with the drop in silver prices.

10+ seems like a rather high estimate. The numbers I've seen speculated are closer to maybe 2-4 players on teams being added.

[professor ape]

Originally Posted by HondoLane

So true. I've been selling all of my silvers since the beginning, made a fortune off of it.

Wait until the roster update (finally coming tomorrow) and there will be 10+ new bronze and commons added to most teams. This will cause the EV of the packs to decline significantly after the update with the drop in silver prices.

I’ll let the dust settle after tomorrow’s update and rerun the exercise.

[HondoLane]

Originally Posted by MathBandit

10+ seems like a rather high estimate. The numbers I've seen speculated are closer to maybe 2-4 players on teams being added.

If they do it like last year, it'll be around 10 for most teams - just go look at any team and see how many pitchers and hitters have appeared in a game:

i.e. Milwaukee has had 17 players take an at-bat, and 23 pitchers have pitched in a game for them. Again, if it's like last year, every one of those players will be in the game - and Milwaukee will go from 29/30 to complete the mission to 29/40.

i.e. Seattle has 22 players who have taken an at-bat and 20 pitchers that have pitched in a game. So that'll bring them to 42.

I've looked at a lot of teams, and this is how almost every team is.

[HondoLane]

Originally Posted by professor ape

I’ll let the dust settle after tomorrow’s update and rerun the exercise.

Just wanted to add: I really appreciate this run-down. The most helpful post on here. My own experience has been that packs are more than worth it (especially with the way silver prices have been) - but to have confirmation that the odds are in my favor was nice. Thanks again!

[professor ape]

Originally Posted by HondoLane

Just wanted to add: I really appreciate this run-down. The most helpful post on here. My own experience has been that packs are more than worth it (especially with the way silver prices have been) - but to have confirmation that the odds are in my favor was nice. Thanks again!

I’ll be curious to see how things have changed over the last couple of weeks. I figure that I’ll wait until the end of the week To allow the market to recalibrate a bit. I’m going to make an early guess that the EV of the packs will be down a good bit from where they were.

[zevus]

(see below)

[zevus]

well, at the moment it seems like there's just some points transfer going on at some massive scale (at a degree in which i'd think some account has access to 'unlimited points' via some means & is just 'laundering' and not caring too much if a few "wrong" sellers are bought from -- it'd make sense if it was intentional, tbh) -- unsure why else random iron/bronze would be going for so much

a colin holderman or something would make sense, but not the vast majority of these

(or maybe someone can clue me in on why, say, trevor kelley sold for 500, etc)

[professor ape]

Originally Posted by zevus

well, at the moment it seems like there's just some points transfer going on at some massive scale (at a degree in which i'd think some account has access to 'unlimited points' via some means & is just 'laundering' and not caring too much if a few "wrong" sellers are bought from -- it'd make sense if it was intentional, tbh) -- unsure why else random iron/bronze would be going for so much

a colin holderman or something would make sense, but not the vast majority of these

(or maybe someone can clue me in on why, say, trevor kelley sold for 500, etc)

The team has a good history of identifying those involved in improper transfers and dealing with it. We can see when it is happening, but we don’t have visibility into the resolution.

[HondoLane]

Originally Posted by zevus

well, at the moment it seems like there's just some points transfer going on at some massive scale (at a degree in which i'd think some account has access to 'unlimited points' via some means & is just 'laundering' and not caring too much if a few "wrong" sellers are bought from -- it'd make sense if it was intentional, tbh) -- unsure why else random iron/bronze would be going for so much

a colin holderman or something would make sense, but not the vast majority of these

(or maybe someone can clue me in on why, say, trevor kelley sold for 500, etc)

Yeah, that's because of the live update. New cards are always expensive at first. Colin Holderman is a new card, he plays for the NYM (an expensive collection to complete before the update) and a lot of people are trying to complete the set. That is why his price is inflated. Wait a week or two and all of the new iron and bronze cards will fall to relatively normal prices.

EDIT: Misread your post: But overall, same reason - people are trying to complete collections, Milwaukee is the most expensive one. There's just a big inflation to certain live cards of certain collections after every update, but particularly this first one. I assure you, real people are selling at those prices - I've sold half a dozen at least of every bronze and iron going for over 100.

[Warfsu]

Originally Posted by HondoLane

Yeah, that's because of the live update. New cards are always expensive at first. Colin Holderman is a new card, he plays for the NYM (an expensive collection to complete before the update) and a lot of people are trying to complete the set. That is why his price is inflated. Wait a week or two and all of the new iron and bronze cards will fall to relatively normal prices.

EDIT: Misread your post: But overall, same reason - people are trying to complete collections, Milwaukee is the most expensive one. There's just a big inflation to certain live cards of certain collections after every update, but particularly this first one. I assure you, real people are selling at those prices - I've sold half a dozen at least of every bronze and iron going for over 100.

Agree with this. I’ve gotten past the live missions with both my teams (started my 2nd team a few weeks later). Price wise, Milwaukee has been the most expensive for both teams. I noticed the Blue Jay cards extremely inflated this time around as well. As stated, new cards towards these missions will have inflated prices because they’re seen as “easy” ways to complete the mission over the gold/Diamond cards that might be needed if the new cards weren’t included. I too have taken advantage of the inflated prices.

[HondoLane]

Originally Posted by Warfsu

I too have taken advantage of the inflated prices.

The prices have been so inflated with the irons (and bronzes) that everyone should be spending all of their extra PP on packs. There's no better return on value than these past few days. Funny enough, I had a terrible run of pack luck for the most part (as far as diamonds/perfects) - but all the more thankful that the floor was so high for these packs.