Streaks

[Warfsu]

Don’t get me wrong, I love playing OOTP22, but nothing is more frustrating by the predictable losing streak that follows the winning streaks. I understand, it’s likely a few of the wins during a winning streak are “lucky”, but it’s as if the game has to correct course once the streak is over.

Let’s say you’re a .600 team currently. You real off 8 straight wins, and now the game needs to revert you back to the .600 team you are, and those 8 straight wins are followed by 4 or 5 straight losses. This happens countless times each season for me. Doesn’t matter the opponents, situations, etc. I’d guess 90% of the time I have a win streak snapped, it’s followed with 2 or 3 losses (if I’m lucky). Plus it’s the type of losses. I score 10+ runs 3 straight games, followed by 4 of 5 in which I don’t score more then 2. Just had a 15 game winning streak snapped by losses of 3, 1, 2, and 1, in which I scored a total of 6 runs.

I know people will say this stuff happens all the time in real life. I just don’t recall real life swings in wins/losses like I see. For example, here is how my season has gone:
5 straight wins, 4 straight losses, 5 straight wins, lossing 6 of the next 7, alternating wins/losses for the next 7, win 3 straight (outscoring my opponent 54-2), lose 4 of next 5, win 2 of next 3, win 15 straight, lose 4 straight. Things swings don’t feel common in real life, but maybe I’m wrong.

[trainwreck]

Any resemblance between PT and real life MLB is purely coincidental.

[Leo_The_Lip]

Here is some actual math about streaks. It should answer all questions from anyone:

https://tht.fangraphs.com/the-probability-of-streaks/

[Warfsu]

To circle back to this. I understand that it’s a simulation, and shouldn’t be viewed as realistic, but at times, the outcomes of games just feels so volatile. I’ll provide some context:

In this weeks season (this fees like it occurs ever week/season, but I’ve only kept track of it this week) I’ve had 12 instances in which I lost game after winning at least one. Eight times (out of 12) was this loss followed by a 2nd loss. Four times out of those eight was the second loss followed by a 3rd.

My point wasn’t really to defy randomness, but I get so concerned risking losing a game (ie resting tired players, skipping a starter, bullpen games, etc), especially if I’ve been winning a majority of games, due to knowing the second I lose a game, it’s likely followed by a 2nd and sometimes a 3rd loss. While not as big a deal in Silver or Gold, in Diamond, a bad month, can put you way behind.

So my question, after all of that, how do you go about making adjustments? Specifically to the lineup? Do you evaluate at the end of a month? After a few games? I generally do pretty well pitching wise, so I tend to think my adjustments there are sound, but I routinely go through just such dry spells offensively, and I wonder if it has to do with my utilation of bench players, or possibly tinkering too little/too much.

[adampiattday]

Originally Posted by Warfsu

So my question, after all of that, how do you go about making adjustments? Specifically to the lineup? Do you evaluate at the end of a month? After a few games? I generally do pretty well pitching wise, so I tend to think my adjustments there are sound, but I routinely go through just such dry spells offensively, and I wonder if it has to do with my utilation of bench players, or possibly tinkering too little/too much.

I usually leave my offense alone. I will make some adjustments to where players hit in the lineup based off performance. I will make a roster move here and there if my team is going on the road to a cheese park, but generally I ride my players through their slumps. It all evens out in the end.

[Torgonius]

You need to know why you lost (or why you're winning).

You already have part of it with the potentially gassed bullpen. A certain predictor of probable negative future outcomes!

Also, take a look at the park factors of where you're playing. If you have a bunch of righties hitting in a park that nerfs them, it's gonna be a bad day.

If you have pitchers with low movement playing in a little league field, order a bunch of new baseballs.

Did they run a righty starter and then you got stuck with a bunch of LvL matchups?

These are all adjustments you can make, BUT you have to be checking in religiously on your team to make them. The player who can invest more time on game to game changes is going to generally have the upper hand.