Groundhog (Opening) Day

jcard · 10-26-2021, 04:22 AM

It really is absurd that a game like OOTP doesnÂ’t give you the option to introduce variance into the game creation process for the current MLB season. First of all, ZIPS projections are probabilistic forecasts. When a single statistical projection is used to represent a player, it is understood that it is the median (50th percentile) projection of that playerÂ’s total forecast- it is NOT given as a mean or modal or other type of predicted performance.

Secondly, the way TCR operates in the game seems to make this initial variance more necessary. Across different game screens and reports, you will find that Talent and Potential are used interchangeably. It seems to me that TCR really only applies to developing players, by making their potential ratings more volatile. For fully developed players, potential ratings are basically an inert factor. Just as comparing the initial ratings of individual veteran players between multiple sims shows them to be the same in each season, tracking fully developed players within a given simulated season finds that their ratings are basically static outside of drops for older veterans due to the aging effect. It seems to me that the end-of-season 2021 leaderboards have very little variance between sims. More generally, I donÂ’t see evidence that OOTP allows for seasons such as Posey, B. Crawford, Salvador Perez, Wainwright, etc., had this year- i.e., older veteran players seen on the downside of their careers who were legitimate All-Star-caliber performers this season. While these seasons were certainly unlikely, the fact that some of the many veteran players had years like this is not surprising- for every 10 of these players, you would EXPECT one to perform at his 90th-percentile or better projected level.

Long story short, there needs to be a possibility for variance for veteran players in at least either of the creation or progression mechanics.

Enough from me. Those of you with more experience may have seen ample evidence that contradicts these suspicions- now IÂ’m all ears.

10-26-2021, 04:22 AM	#1
jcard All Star Reserve Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 580 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Groundhog (Opening) Day It really is absurd that a game like OOTP doesnÂ’t give you the option to introduce variance into the game creation process for the current MLB season. First of all, ZIPS projections are probabilistic forecasts. When a single statistical projection is used to represent a player, it is understood that it is the median (50th percentile) projection of that playerÂ’s total forecast- it is NOT given as a mean or modal or other type of predicted performance. Secondly, the way TCR operates in the game seems to make this initial variance more necessary. Across different game screens and reports, you will find that Talent and Potential are used interchangeably. It seems to me that TCR really only applies to developing players, by making their potential ratings more volatile. For fully developed players, potential ratings are basically an inert factor. Just as comparing the initial ratings of individual veteran players between multiple sims shows them to be the same in each season, tracking fully developed players within a given simulated season finds that their ratings are basically static outside of drops for older veterans due to the aging effect. It seems to me that the end-of-season 2021 leaderboards have very little variance between sims. More generally, I donÂ’t see evidence that OOTP allows for seasons such as Posey, B. Crawford, Salvador Perez, Wainwright, etc., had this year- i.e., older veteran players seen on the downside of their careers who were legitimate All-Star-caliber performers this season. While these seasons were certainly unlikely, the fact that some of the many veteran players had years like this is not surprising- for every 10 of these players, you would EXPECT one to perform at his 90th-percentile or better projected level. Long story short, there needs to be a possibility for variance for veteran players in at least either of the creation or progression mechanics. Enough from me. Those of you with more experience may have seen ample evidence that contradicts these suspicions- now IÂ’m all ears.