My dynasty is at 3 in a row and counting.

Jon Finnecy · 04-09-2002, 01:48 PM

Well, the Jinx was finally broken... I was having a lot of problems winning the world series, but in 2009, on my 6th consecutive trip to the playoffs, and my 3rd trip to the series, the Giants won it all 4-1 over the Indians. I fell to the Indians in 2010 1-4, and didn't make it to the World Series at all in 2011. Then, my team busted out. Having won between 92 and 104 games 9 years in a row, my franchise turned into a dynasty, winning 119, 116, and an unbelievable 121 games, for which I got a 91 score, the next 3 seasons, including 3 Championshp Trophies. I am about to embark on my attempt at a 4th consecutive trophy as I type.

Some additional observations:

1- Every year I won the series, my team gets the Cy. Not sure if this is coincidence or not, as the Giants have won the Cy 6 times, 4 different pitchers, 1 guy 3 times, but the series only 4.

2- You *can* grow superstars. Proof: My "Maddux / Glavine" are a couple of "brothers" that I drafted 3 years apart: Jose Velez, 3-time Cy, and Craig Velez, 1-time Cy, but the better pitcher. Jose was the 7th overall pick, by me, in 2003, while Craig was the 29th overall pick, again, by me, in 2006. Jose is Good6-Average4-Good7-Vel7, is 112-45 with a 3.57 in 218 starts over 7 seasons, and is 30. Little brother Craig, a southpaw, is Good8-Good8-Good6-Velocity 8, and in his 3 full seasons has a record of 54-14, with a 2.96 ERA. He is 27 entering his 4th season as a starter for the Giants. Jose's Cy's are not just the product of high wins by a good team, either. His years were 18-6, 3.75; 17-9, 2.26; and 20-3, 2.37. My scout, always Brilliant pitching, still maintains that he will probably not be a 20-game winner, and indeed his wins are 18,18,14,19,17,20.

3- Closers can't win the Cy. As good as those 2 guys are, the best pitcher on my team, another homegrown, is Harold Rolon. Drafted 27th overall, by me, in 2004, Harold slammed right onto the major league roster that first season. He set up for Robb Nen for 2 years before Nen, bound for the hall of fame but gaining in years, had an off season and the Giants couldn't agree to an extension. I just wasn't willing to pony up when I knew I had such a talent as Harold waiting in the wings. Today, Harold is 34, has Brilliant8-Average4-Brilliant8-Vel 7 ratings, and has had 10 seasons as my closer. In those 10 years, one partial due to injury, he has registered 40+ saves 7 times, including one season of 51 wins. In 811.2 IP, he has given up only 496 hits, and 142 walks, while getting 720 K's. In the last 6 years, an all-star in every one of them, he has had an ERA over 1.86 only one time. In 2013, he went 6-4, with 51 saves, and an ERA of 1.86. In 2009, he went 7-4, 48 saves, with a 1.30 ERA. 76.1 IP, 31 hits, 9 walks, 67 K's! And he didn't win the Cy. That was actually Jose's first Cy, see stats above. Harold might have a hard time making the HoF given that he's 34 and only has 373 saves, and also has a newcomer, *another* homegrown, knocking on the door: Caroll Eckel. He has yet to show it, but I'm convinced this guy will be even better. At age 22 he is Brill8-Brill6-Brill9-Vel 9. He seemed to turn the corner last season, having an ERA under 2.50 from mid-May on, career 4.35 so far in 78 ip. Which brings me to my next point:

4- Upping the rounds of the amateur draft from 5 to 7 might flood the talent pool... Does anyone have any good test data as to what # of rounds is well balanced? All these superstars getting drafted with the 27th-30th pick, I haven't had a better pick in over a decade, can't be right.

5- Another odd thing: I have a lot of guys that don't strike out much. Power hitters with < 30-50 K's a season. And the reverse: there are *a lot* of pitchers who walk more than they strike out. Even really good pitchers seem to have a hard time keeping a 1:1 BB:K ratio. I played with the league totals numbers in my setup, I used the NL totals from last year and extrapolated to 30 teams, but the average per 550 AB comes out to 53 walks and 112 K's, so I don't think that's to blame. This is a weird one I have no explanation for, other than bad talent development and/or game simulation algorithms. There *are* strikeout pitchers, but to give an example, here's a guy who won the Cy last year: Lenard Alvarado, 19-10, 2.81, 234 ip, 79 bb, 59 k.

I don't think I've *EVER* seen a line like that since the 1930's. And yes, my era is set to Modern. He's the norm, not the exception.

6- The trading AI is still horrible... It's far too easy, if you chose to, to sign a bunch of big name players during FA, then trade them off for prospects to needy teams. It can be *REALLY* hard to get the very best prospects, but sometimes I find a team willing to give away 3-4 very good prospects for a high priced vet. Of course, unless you win the Nobel Prize in computing, coming up with "perfect" trading AI will probably forever remain a pipe dream. I should join an online league at this point, but don't know if I could stand the pace, I like to do a season or two in one night.

7 Finally, a gripe/whine/wish: Markus, if you're out there, could we *PLEASE* get career postseason stats added to the database year-by-year, just like regular season stats? Being able to go back and see what your guys have done over their career in the postseason is a lot of fun, especially when you've been to the postseason 12 years in a row. I like the postseason tab, but just showing the current postseason isn't all that great. The same could be said about minor league stats, also. I understand this makes the database bigger, but hey, hard drive is cheap. It'd be nice to go back and look at your 3-time MVP to see what his minor league stats looked like, so you could better scout your prospects.

Anyways, still having a LOT of fun, but wondering when I should wrap it up and start with a "small market" team.

Management totals: 13 seasons, 1320-787 overall record. .638 winning % in the playoffs, 22-18 in the World Series. 10 consecutive division titles, 12 consecutive playoff appearances, 7 pennants, and 4 Championships. My average score including my first season following my prospect-heavy draft is 63. Worst season: 75-87; best season: 121-41; 6 Cy's, 2 MVP's, 0 ROY's.

Oh yeah, and ROY needs to have the real Rookie definitions programmed... I have rookies that don't count because they had 5 AB or something silly like that.

Ciao.

Batter UP · 04-09-2002, 02:43 PM

Excellent write up of your results. I am working on my own similar sim and it is very interesting to read other people's results, especially with the depth that you have provided here.

I keep my amateur draft at 4 rounds. That seems to be a good compromise in keeping the league stocked with fresh talent but not having the minors flooded.

I too really, really (really!) want to see cumulative minor league stats for each player. I can't stress how much I really want to see this! As Jon pointed out, hard drive space is cheap these das and there could be an option to turn cumulative minor league stats off for those that don't want it.

The trading AI frustrates me enough to where I just don't use it. I try and assemble my teams using the draft and 1 or 2 free agent signings per year. The trading block has not helped me much at all either. It seems if I don't want the player, neither do the other teams.

04-09-2002, 01:48 PM	#1
Jon Finnecy Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 47	My dynasty is at 3 in a row and counting. Well, the Jinx was finally broken... I was having a lot of problems winning the world series, but in 2009, on my 6th consecutive trip to the playoffs, and my 3rd trip to the series, the Giants won it all 4-1 over the Indians. I fell to the Indians in 2010 1-4, and didn't make it to the World Series at all in 2011. Then, my team busted out. Having won between 92 and 104 games 9 years in a row, my franchise turned into a dynasty, winning 119, 116, and an unbelievable 121 games, for which I got a 91 score, the next 3 seasons, including 3 Championshp Trophies. I am about to embark on my attempt at a 4th consecutive trophy as I type. Some additional observations: 1- Every year I won the series, my team gets the Cy. Not sure if this is coincidence or not, as the Giants have won the Cy 6 times, 4 different pitchers, 1 guy 3 times, but the series only 4. 2- You can grow superstars. Proof: My "Maddux / Glavine" are a couple of "brothers" that I drafted 3 years apart: Jose Velez, 3-time Cy, and Craig Velez, 1-time Cy, but the better pitcher. Jose was the 7th overall pick, by me, in 2003, while Craig was the 29th overall pick, again, by me, in 2006. Jose is Good6-Average4-Good7-Vel7, is 112-45 with a 3.57 in 218 starts over 7 seasons, and is 30. Little brother Craig, a southpaw, is Good8-Good8-Good6-Velocity 8, and in his 3 full seasons has a record of 54-14, with a 2.96 ERA. He is 27 entering his 4th season as a starter for the Giants. Jose's Cy's are not just the product of high wins by a good team, either. His years were 18-6, 3.75; 17-9, 2.26; and 20-3, 2.37. My scout, always Brilliant pitching, still maintains that he will probably not be a 20-game winner, and indeed his wins are 18,18,14,19,17,20. 3- Closers can't win the Cy. As good as those 2 guys are, the best pitcher on my team, another homegrown, is Harold Rolon. Drafted 27th overall, by me, in 2004, Harold slammed right onto the major league roster that first season. He set up for Robb Nen for 2 years before Nen, bound for the hall of fame but gaining in years, had an off season and the Giants couldn't agree to an extension. I just wasn't willing to pony up when I knew I had such a talent as Harold waiting in the wings. Today, Harold is 34, has Brilliant8-Average4-Brilliant8-Vel 7 ratings, and has had 10 seasons as my closer. In those 10 years, one partial due to injury, he has registered 40+ saves 7 times, including one season of 51 wins. In 811.2 IP, he has given up only 496 hits, and 142 walks, while getting 720 K's. In the last 6 years, an all-star in every one of them, he has had an ERA over 1.86 only one time. In 2013, he went 6-4, with 51 saves, and an ERA of 1.86. In 2009, he went 7-4, 48 saves, with a 1.30 ERA. 76.1 IP, 31 hits, 9 walks, 67 K's! And he didn't win the Cy. That was actually Jose's first Cy, see stats above. Harold might have a hard time making the HoF given that he's 34 and only has 373 saves, and also has a newcomer, another homegrown, knocking on the door: Caroll Eckel. He has yet to show it, but I'm convinced this guy will be even better. At age 22 he is Brill8-Brill6-Brill9-Vel 9. He seemed to turn the corner last season, having an ERA under 2.50 from mid-May on, career 4.35 so far in 78 ip. Which brings me to my next point: 4- Upping the rounds of the amateur draft from 5 to 7 might flood the talent pool... Does anyone have any good test data as to what # of rounds is well balanced? All these superstars getting drafted with the 27th-30th pick, I haven't had a better pick in over a decade, can't be right. 5- Another odd thing: I have a lot of guys that don't strike out much. Power hitters with < 30-50 K's a season. And the reverse: there are a lot of pitchers who walk more than they strike out. Even really good pitchers seem to have a hard time keeping a 1:1 BB:K ratio. I played with the league totals numbers in my setup, I used the NL totals from last year and extrapolated to 30 teams, but the average per 550 AB comes out to 53 walks and 112 K's, so I don't think that's to blame. This is a weird one I have no explanation for, other than bad talent development and/or game simulation algorithms. There are strikeout pitchers, but to give an example, here's a guy who won the Cy last year: Lenard Alvarado, 19-10, 2.81, 234 ip, 79 bb, 59 k. I don't think I've EVER seen a line like that since the 1930's. And yes, my era is set to Modern. He's the norm, not the exception. 6- The trading AI is still horrible... It's far too easy, if you chose to, to sign a bunch of big name players during FA, then trade them off for prospects to needy teams. It can be REALLY hard to get the very best prospects, but sometimes I find a team willing to give away 3-4 very good prospects for a high priced vet. Of course, unless you win the Nobel Prize in computing, coming up with "perfect" trading AI will probably forever remain a pipe dream. I should join an online league at this point, but don't know if I could stand the pace, I like to do a season or two in one night. 7 Finally, a gripe/whine/wish: Markus, if you're out there, could we PLEASE get career postseason stats added to the database year-by-year, just like regular season stats? Being able to go back and see what your guys have done over their career in the postseason is a lot of fun, especially when you've been to the postseason 12 years in a row. I like the postseason tab, but just showing the current postseason isn't all that great. The same could be said about minor league stats, also. I understand this makes the database bigger, but hey, hard drive is cheap. It'd be nice to go back and look at your 3-time MVP to see what his minor league stats looked like, so you could better scout your prospects. Anyways, still having a LOT of fun, but wondering when I should wrap it up and start with a "small market" team. Management totals: 13 seasons, 1320-787 overall record. .638 winning % in the playoffs, 22-18 in the World Series. 10 consecutive division titles, 12 consecutive playoff appearances, 7 pennants, and 4 Championships. My average score including my first season following my prospect-heavy draft is 63. Worst season: 75-87; best season: 121-41; 6 Cy's, 2 MVP's, 0 ROY's. Oh yeah, and ROY needs to have the real Rookie definitions programmed... I have rookies that don't count because they had 5 AB or something silly like that. Ciao.

04-09-2002, 02:43 PM	#2
Batter UP Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 102	Excellent write up of your results. I am working on my own similar sim and it is very interesting to read other people's results, especially with the depth that you have provided here. I keep my amateur draft at 4 rounds. That seems to be a good compromise in keeping the league stocked with fresh talent but not having the minors flooded. I too really, really (really!) want to see cumulative minor league stats for each player. I can't stress how much I really want to see this! As Jon pointed out, hard drive space is cheap these das and there could be an option to turn cumulative minor league stats off for those that don't want it. The trading AI frustrates me enough to where I just don't use it. I try and assemble my teams using the draft and 1 or 2 free agent signings per year. The trading block has not helped me much at all either. It seems if I don't want the player, neither do the other teams.