Live card updates

HermanSmutley · 07-21-2021, 04:42 PM

Is there anywhere on the forum that explains the formula used for the live card updates?

Thanks.

professor ape · 07-21-2021, 05:33 PM

Others can explain it better but basically the ratings are based on projections for the year. At the start of the season you are effectively running on the projections. As the months roll by, the projections start to incorporate more and more actual performance.

chazzycat · 07-21-2021, 05:48 PM

The starting ratings are indeed based on projections (ZiPS). However, I would recommend against trying to compare performance to projections. As it turns out, they use a different version of the projections from what's publicly available. I've had much better luck with live speculation since I stopped caring about the projections and just invested in players who I saw their stock as rising, kind of like fantasy baseball.

HermanSmutley · 07-21-2021, 07:20 PM

Thanks for the replies guys.

I convinced myself that Stroman is going to drop from Gold to Silver. But looking at his stats for the period, 23IP, 20H, 2BB, 1HR, 8ER he should be okay.

chazzycat · 07-21-2021, 07:44 PM

One thing to note when it comes to pitchers - only walks, strikeouts and homers matter since those are the 3 ratings pitchers have in the game. Base hits are dependent on the defense, not the pitcher. So when you are analyzing pitchers for live spec purposes you need to ignore anything about base hits and focus on those three categories (or FIP as a shortcut since it uses those 3 as well).

HermanSmutley · 07-22-2021, 07:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chazzycat

One thing to note when it comes to pitchers - only walks, strikeouts and homers matter since those are the 3 ratings pitchers have in the game. Base hits are dependent on the defense, not the pitcher. So when you are analyzing pitchers for live spec purposes you need to ignore anything about base hits and focus on those three categories (or FIP as a shortcut since it uses those 3 as well).

Thanks for that, very informative.

I read somewhere that the higher you get (this won’t apply to my team as I think silver will be the limit) avoid Ks is the most important rating. I know this means that batters will be advanced but would it also imply that the player may hit into more double plays?

frankbama · 07-22-2021, 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HermanSmutley

Thanks for that, very informative.

I read somewhere that the higher you get (this won’t apply to my team as I think silver will be the limit) avoid Ks is the most important rating. I know this means that batters will be advanced but would it also imply that the player may hit into more double plays?

"If you think you're going to hit a ground ball, just go ahead and strike out" - Earl Weaver to Jim Palmer

I probably botched the quote and the man who said it, but all the same. avoid ks without good contact doesn't help all that much. Same with OBP with a really slow catcher (Matt Wieters a couple years with the Os)

07-21-2021, 04:42 PM	#1
HermanSmutley Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2021 Location: England Posts: 87	Live card updates Is there anywhere on the forum that explains the formula used for the live card updates? Thanks.

07-21-2021, 05:33 PM	#2
professor ape All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: The belly of the beast Posts: 1,498	Others can explain it better but basically the ratings are based on projections for the year. At the start of the season you are effectively running on the projections. As the months roll by, the projections start to incorporate more and more actual performance. __________________

07-21-2021, 05:48 PM	#3
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	The starting ratings are indeed based on projections (ZiPS). However, I would recommend against trying to compare performance to projections. As it turns out, they use a different version of the projections from what's publicly available. I've had much better luck with live speculation since I stopped caring about the projections and just invested in players who I saw their stock as rising, kind of like fantasy baseball.

07-21-2021, 07:20 PM	#4
HermanSmutley Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2021 Location: England Posts: 87	Thanks for the replies guys. I convinced myself that Stroman is going to drop from Gold to Silver. But looking at his stats for the period, 23IP, 20H, 2BB, 1HR, 8ER he should be okay.

07-21-2021, 07:44 PM	#5
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	One thing to note when it comes to pitchers - only walks, strikeouts and homers matter since those are the 3 ratings pitchers have in the game. Base hits are dependent on the defense, not the pitcher. So when you are analyzing pitchers for live spec purposes you need to ignore anything about base hits and focus on those three categories (or FIP as a shortcut since it uses those 3 as well).