Streaky

Warfsu · 06-03-2021, 06:45 PM

At times does the game feel too streaky at times? My PT has been fairly successful over the first 3 1/2 years, but when I happen to lose 2 or 3 games in a row, it seems to compound to 5+.

Is there anything you guys to limit losing streaks? Feel like the second I tinker my team goes cold, but a lot of times the cause of the losing streak (bullpen, lack of hitting) can be resolved through adjustments.

professor ape · 06-03-2021, 07:27 PM

Th oddity that I have tended to see with my team is that they start off the season slowly and then turn it on. I don’t understand why but it happens more often than not even though I don’t monkey with my team much throughout the week unless I obtain an obvious must-play card. Here are my monthly records so far this season with no changes made to my team all week:

April 8-14
May 10-17
June 15-12
July 13-7

ncap99 · 06-04-2021, 02:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by professor ape

Th oddity that I have tended to see with my team is that they start off the season slowly and then turn it on. I don’t understand why but it happens more often than not even though I don’t monkey with my team much throughout the week unless I obtain an obvious must-play card. Here are my monthly records so far this season with no changes made to my team all week:

April 8-14
May 10-17
June 15-12
July 13-7

I have noticed the exact same thing the past 3 seasons. Maybe just a small sample size thing early in the season where you can go on like a 5 game losing streak and it makes your overall record stink until about a month and a half in. The other thing I've noticed is I do terrible at the beginning and the end and great in the middle.

thejojo · 06-04-2021, 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by professor ape

Th oddity that I have tended to see with my team is that they start off the season slowly and then turn it on. I don’t understand why but it happens more often than not even though I don’t monkey with my team much throughout the week unless I obtain an obvious must-play card. Here are my monthly records so far this season with no changes made to my team all week:

April 8-14
May 10-17
June 15-12
July 13-7

It's possible that this is a factor of the weather. Your team might play better in your summer weather than it does in the spring.

brotherblues · 06-04-2021, 12:32 PM

Keep in mind your wins and losses will statistically always be streaky.

Think of this: Some (bad) scientists have been busted faking the results for their studies because their results were too "cleanly" random. Like if you make a coin flip study (say for school) and you record thousands of trials, the actual expectation is that it'd be riddled with a lot of freaky streaks.

chazzycat · 06-04-2021, 12:45 PM

Yep streaks are completely normal and to be expected just based on random distribution. There are some factors that could lead to losing streaks...for example losing a couple extra-innings games in a row, tiring out your bullpen, would increase the risk of losing more games. Or maybe you have built your team to fit a specific park, and you have a bunch of home games in a row. But generally speaking it's more just random.

06-03-2021, 06:45 PM	#1
Warfsu Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2021 Posts: 111	Streaky At times does the game feel too streaky at times? My PT has been fairly successful over the first 3 1/2 years, but when I happen to lose 2 or 3 games in a row, it seems to compound to 5+. Is there anything you guys to limit losing streaks? Feel like the second I tinker my team goes cold, but a lot of times the cause of the losing streak (bullpen, lack of hitting) can be resolved through adjustments.

06-03-2021, 07:27 PM	#2
professor ape All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: The belly of the beast Posts: 1,498	Th oddity that I have tended to see with my team is that they start off the season slowly and then turn it on. I don’t understand why but it happens more often than not even though I don’t monkey with my team much throughout the week unless I obtain an obvious must-play card. Here are my monthly records so far this season with no changes made to my team all week: April 8-14 May 10-17 June 15-12 July 13-7 __________________

06-04-2021, 12:32 PM	#5
brotherblues All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2020 Posts: 658	Keep in mind your wins and losses will statistically always be streaky. Think of this: Some (bad) scientists have been busted faking the results for their studies because their results were too "cleanly" random. Like if you make a coin flip study (say for school) and you record thousands of trials, the actual expectation is that it'd be riddled with a lot of freaky streaks.

06-04-2021, 12:45 PM	#6
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	Yep streaks are completely normal and to be expected just based on random distribution. There are some factors that could lead to losing streaks...for example losing a couple extra-innings games in a row, tiring out your bullpen, would increase the risk of losing more games. Or maybe you have built your team to fit a specific park, and you have a bunch of home games in a row. But generally speaking it's more just random.