Inflated stats in fictional leagues

lionden_56 · 12-06-2020, 02:46 PM

I've always had this issue with fictional leagues and I'm wondering if there's a way to have the game generate a more balanced set of players in fictional leagues. Because the batting stats at the top and bottom are so far out of proportion is takes a lot of the fun out of creating fictional worlds.

So for example, the game I just created, I adjusted the stat modifiers to 2015. I didn't really touch anything else. I just simmed the first season, and the batting champion hit a whopping .380. In fact all of the top 11 hitters in the league hit over .350. Compare that to the real 2015 season where the batting champ hit .330.

I think the problem is the talent gap between the top of the generated players and the bottom is too big. My rudimentary understanding of how the sim engine works is it takes a baseline number of hits, doubles, HRs, etc and distributes them through the season (again, super rudimentary explanation). I feel like its distributing them too much in favor of top players and not enough in favor of bottom ones.

In the real 2015 season, of 143 qualified hitters, 20 of them hit .300 or better. In my game, 211 hitters qualified (30 team league like MLB), and over 50 of them hit .300 or better. On the flip side, the worst hitter in MLB in 2015 hit .210. In my game, 15 qualified players hit under .200, with the worst hitting .141.

So that's a super long winded way of asking - is there a setting or generator stat to tweak somewhere in player creation or something that will make fictional leagues more "balanced" and closer to real life numbers, while not have one guy hitting 400 as one guy hits 141?

Edit: also just noticed that 3 players had 50 HR seasons, which isn't super far off, but still high. 2015 leaders had 47, 44, 42

eldur00 · 12-06-2020, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lionden_56

I've always had this issue with fictional leagues and I'm wondering if there's a way to have the game generate a more balanced set of players in fictional leagues. Because the batting stats at the top and bottom are so far out of proportion is takes a lot of the fun out of creating fictional worlds.

So for example, the game I just created, I adjusted the stat modifiers to 2015. I didn't really touch anything else. I just simmed the first season, and the batting champion hit a whopping .380. In fact all of the top 11 hitters in the league hit over .350. Compare that to the real 2015 season where the batting champ hit .330.

I think the problem is the talent gap between the top of the generated players and the bottom is too big. My rudimentary understanding of how the sim engine works is it takes a baseline number of hits, doubles, HRs, etc and distributes them through the season (again, super rudimentary explanation). I feel like its distributing them too much in favor of top players and not enough in favor of bottom ones.

In the real 2015 season, of 143 qualified hitters, 20 of them hit .300 or better. In my game, 211 hitters qualified (30 team league like MLB), and over 50 of them hit .300 or better. On the flip side, the worst hitter in MLB in 2015 hit .210. In my game, 15 qualified players hit under .200, with the worst hitting .141.

So that's a super long winded way of asking - is there a setting or generator stat to tweak somewhere in player creation or something that will make fictional leagues more "balanced" and closer to real life numbers, while not have one guy hitting 400 as one guy hits 141?

Edit: also just noticed that 3 players had 50 HR seasons, which isn't super far off, but still high. 2015 leaders had 47, 44, 42

You may want to create a few more different 2015 universes and compare. Every fictional league will not be created equally, and this one you created may have a pitching personel that's weaker than normal. Or potentially, fielding might be below average as well.

It takes more than looking at the offensive numbers to understand what's going on because the offense is also dependent on the other areas I've mentioned.

Other things to keep in mind - ballpark factors, for example. Maybe there are more park friendly parks in your universe ?

You have the basis right - the game will distribute the stats throughout the season to come up to a ballpark figure of the totals for the 2015 season. But those numbers are also not an absolute and become kind of a living organism as the season moves along.

CBeisbol · 12-06-2020, 03:27 PM

Yeah

I think the way to test it, I think, would be to create a number of fictional 2015 universes and sim them.

Then get the standard deviation of, say, batting averages from those fictional universes and take the average, or median, standard deviation and compare it to the IRL standard deviation of batting averages to see if there is, in fact, a larger spread.

The OP mentioned that there were a lot more qualified batters in the created games. That could contribute if worse players are getting a lot of PA's compared to real life.

lionden_56 · 12-06-2020, 03:27 PM

It happens in every league I create. I had a dynasty going on these boards a few years ago and it happened there too. I don't think I used a specific year, just the games base stats, but look at the silver slugger winners:
https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...9&postcount=43

A couple people hitting at or around .400 again. I've made numerous fictional leagues and all of them have the same problem.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

The OP mentioned that there were a lot more qualified batters in the created games. That could contribute if worse players are getting a lot of PA's compared to real life.

This is more or less what I'm asking about. It seems like the game doesn't create enough "middle but good" players and too many "really good" and "really bad" players. I'm trying to figure out if there's a way to balance it.

smythejd · 12-06-2020, 06:19 PM

When I start any fictional league (with fictional players), I always start the league, run 5 to 10 years, delete history then play. This gets rid of the monster players and their abnormal stats.

Charlie Hough · 12-06-2020, 06:50 PM

You're probably doing something in your initial league setup that's creating this problem. But unfortunately I don't know enough from your description to pinpoint exactly where the issue might be. Are you using 2015 as the basis for everything in your settings? Are you doing anything to alter league totals or player creation modifiers?

Keep in mind that there will be standard statistical variations based on probabilities and randomness. For example, your home run totals are completely normal and well within the typical variation that anyone should expect. Your issues with batting averages seem like an actual problem, though. But I've never had any problems like this with fictional leagues.

Lordofbrewtown · 12-06-2020, 09:20 PM

Are you using minor leagues or reserve rosters? I'm wondering how many 'extra' unsigned free agents are in your fictional league. I've had a similar problem where I was trying to limit the total # of players in the league using a reserve roster. That's forcing more scrub types to get some active roster time which could skew your stats.

lionden_56 · 12-06-2020, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

You're probably doing something in your initial league setup that's creating this problem. But unfortunately I don't know enough from your description to pinpoint exactly where the issue might be. Are you using 2015 as the basis for everything in your settings? Are you doing anything to alter league totals or player creation modifiers?

Keep in mind that there will be standard statistical variations based on probabilities and randomness. For example, your home run totals are completely normal and well within the typical variation that anyone should expect. Your issues with batting averages seem like an actual problem, though. But I've never had any problems like this with fictional leagues.

That's the thing, I'm not changing anything in the setup at all. I tried adjusting the stats to 2015 in the game in OP to see if it helped. It hasn't.

Just to test it again, I started a brand new fictional league, 30 teams, 162 games. Didn't touch anything else. So default player creation, default stats, etc. I just simmed through 5 years

Year 1:
Top 5 Batting averages
.408 .379 .372 .359 . 355
Top 5 HR totals
59 57 57 57 56

Year 2:
Top 5 batting averages
.361 .361 .357 .354 .352
Top 5 HR totals
63 63 59 59 56

Year 3:
Top 5 batting averages
.375 .364 .360 .354 .350
Top 5 HR totals
64 60 59 56 56

Year 4:
Top 5 batting Averages
.385 .348 .348 .343 .338
Top 5 HR
62 61 60 54 54

Year 5
Top 5 BA
.363 .354 .352 .349 .346
Top 5 HR
70 63 57 52 51

So years 2 and 5 weren't "terrible" but were still 30 points over what the 2019 batting champ hit (which is the metric I'm assuming the game uses for the default setup) And every year featured multiple players hitting north of 350. HR numbers also seem quite high. I didn't look at park factors at all so maybe that had something to di with it. Still, for the default settings, all of this seems incredibly out of proportion, and as I said, I get results like this in pretty much every fictional league I create.

mytreds · 12-07-2020, 03:14 AM

I’ve noticed this in my fictional league as well. Top hitters are above .350 typically. But it honestly doesn’t bother me. It is “fictional” after all.

Kuppi · 12-07-2020, 04:22 AM

Sim through the first 25 years of any fictional league, erase the history, release all players and do another inaugural draft. The players the game creates for the inaugural draft are...weird, and different from those generated through drafts and scouting. I've found that this player pool tends to include multiple players with pretty insane stats that you would not see in year 50 of your league (or if you do, it'll be one guy, not five). This makes leagues top-heavy.
What kind of league totals are you getting with 2015 settings? If the overall league production is fine, then it is mostly an issue of these inaugual players being OP.

Check the park factors, too. I had a league once where the game created a stadium that had a 1.230 AVG modifier for lefties.

Or just manually edit the league modifiers. Lower the hits modifier by a few points, see what happens. Edit the modifiers, not the totals.

This will never be perfect though, don't even bother. The game tends to distribute the league totals more top-heavy than in real life, that's just how it is. I tend to shoot for a league with about 5000 HRs, yet the top power hitters will routinely hit 50+. If you use the 2019 stats...oh boy.

12-06-2020, 02:46 PM	#1
lionden_56 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 101	Inflated stats in fictional leagues I've always had this issue with fictional leagues and I'm wondering if there's a way to have the game generate a more balanced set of players in fictional leagues. Because the batting stats at the top and bottom are so far out of proportion is takes a lot of the fun out of creating fictional worlds. So for example, the game I just created, I adjusted the stat modifiers to 2015. I didn't really touch anything else. I just simmed the first season, and the batting champion hit a whopping .380. In fact all of the top 11 hitters in the league hit over .350. Compare that to the real 2015 season where the batting champ hit .330. I think the problem is the talent gap between the top of the generated players and the bottom is too big. My rudimentary understanding of how the sim engine works is it takes a baseline number of hits, doubles, HRs, etc and distributes them through the season (again, super rudimentary explanation). I feel like its distributing them too much in favor of top players and not enough in favor of bottom ones. In the real 2015 season, of 143 qualified hitters, 20 of them hit .300 or better. In my game, 211 hitters qualified (30 team league like MLB), and over 50 of them hit .300 or better. On the flip side, the worst hitter in MLB in 2015 hit .210. In my game, 15 qualified players hit under .200, with the worst hitting .141. So that's a super long winded way of asking - is there a setting or generator stat to tweak somewhere in player creation or something that will make fictional leagues more "balanced" and closer to real life numbers, while not have one guy hitting 400 as one guy hits 141? Edit: also just noticed that 3 players had 50 HR seasons, which isn't super far off, but still high. 2015 leaders had 47, 44, 42 Last edited by lionden_56; 12-06-2020 at 02:50 PM.

12-07-2020, 03:14 AM	#9
mytreds All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 1,182	I’ve noticed this in my fictional league as well. Top hitters are above .350 typically. But it honestly doesn’t bother me. It is “fictional” after all. __________________ “Baseball isn’t statistics; it’s Joe DiMaggio rounding second.” “Once, centuries ago, it was the beloved national pastime of the Americas, Wesley. Abandoned by a society that prized fast food and faster games. Lost to impatience.” “ The term ‘WAR’ should be replaced by ‘WAG’. WAR isn’t an actual measurement; it’s just a wild-ass guess” -Bill James RIP National League 1876-2022 Floreat semper vel invita morte. I make custom ballparks.

12-07-2020, 04:22 AM	#10
Kuppi Bat Boy Join Date: Dec 2020 Posts: 3	Sim through the first 25 years of any fictional league, erase the history, release all players and do another inaugural draft. The players the game creates for the inaugural draft are...weird, and different from those generated through drafts and scouting. I've found that this player pool tends to include multiple players with pretty insane stats that you would not see in year 50 of your league (or if you do, it'll be one guy, not five). This makes leagues top-heavy. What kind of league totals are you getting with 2015 settings? If the overall league production is fine, then it is mostly an issue of these inaugual players being OP. Check the park factors, too. I had a league once where the game created a stadium that had a 1.230 AVG modifier for lefties. Or just manually edit the league modifiers. Lower the hits modifier by a few points, see what happens. Edit the modifiers, not the totals. This will never be perfect though, don't even bother. The game tends to distribute the league totals more top-heavy than in real life, that's just how it is. I tend to shoot for a league with about 5000 HRs, yet the top power hitters will routinely hit 50+. If you use the 2019 stats...oh boy. Last edited by Kuppi; 12-07-2020 at 04:29 AM.

12-06-2020, 03:27 PM	#3
CBeisbol Banned Join Date: Aug 2019 Location: Ban land in 3...2... Posts: 2,943	Yeah I think the way to test it, I think, would be to create a number of fictional 2015 universes and sim them. Then get the standard deviation of, say, batting averages from those fictional universes and take the average, or median, standard deviation and compare it to the IRL standard deviation of batting averages to see if there is, in fact, a larger spread. The OP mentioned that there were a lot more qualified batters in the created games. That could contribute if worse players are getting a lot of PA's compared to real life.

12-06-2020, 06:19 PM	#5
smythejd All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 1,024	When I start any fictional league (with fictional players), I always start the league, run 5 to 10 years, delete history then play. This gets rid of the monster players and their abnormal stats.

12-06-2020, 06:50 PM	#6
Charlie Hough Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 3,644	You're probably doing something in your initial league setup that's creating this problem. But unfortunately I don't know enough from your description to pinpoint exactly where the issue might be. Are you using 2015 as the basis for everything in your settings? Are you doing anything to alter league totals or player creation modifiers? Keep in mind that there will be standard statistical variations based on probabilities and randomness. For example, your home run totals are completely normal and well within the typical variation that anyone should expect. Your issues with batting averages seem like an actual problem, though. But I've never had any problems like this with fictional leagues.

12-06-2020, 09:20 PM	#7
Lordofbrewtown Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2014 Location: St Petersburg, FL Posts: 301	Are you using minor leagues or reserve rosters? I'm wondering how many 'extra' unsigned free agents are in your fictional league. I've had a similar problem where I was trying to limit the total # of players in the league using a reserve roster. That's forcing more scrub types to get some active roster time which could skew your stats.