Runners not stealing and double plays

[CFavs15]

Hi everyone,
I have now played over 1000 games and I wanted to see if anyone else has noticed that if you tell a runner to steal 2nd base and he doesn't go the batter will hit into a double play (I have seen this happen over 90% of the time over the last three seasons that I have played). Any thoughts?

CFavs

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by CFavs15

Hi everyone,
I have now played over 1000 games and I wanted to see if anyone else has noticed that if you tell a runner to steal 2nd base and he doesn't go the batter will hit into a double play (I have seen this happen over 90% of the time over the last three seasons that I have played). Any thoughts?

CFavs

You say it's over 90% of the time, so present your full data.
486 games worth of data should be pretty good evidence that this is a problem. Of course, we'll also need to know how often your team hits into double plays when you didn't select the steal option. Hopefully you kept track of that too

Probably you just mean that this happens a lot. Which is a lot less persuasive.

This isn't to say that you're wrong. Just that the people who make the game are a lot more likely to respond to data than "it seems like".

[RchW]

Certainly not close to my experience. Is there something about your set up that's different?

Just to be sure I understand. You've had 900 DP occur in1000 games that way? Has it happened 2 or 3 times in one game and none in others?

What about batters taking the pitch, or pitchouts?

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by RchW

Certainly not close to my experience. Is there something about your set up that's different?

Just to be sure I understand. You've had 900 DP occur in1000 games that way? Has it happened 2 or 3 times in one game and none in others?

What about batters taking the pitch, or pitchouts?

My understanding, which could be wrong is that
1) steal second is selected
2) the runner doesn't go
3) the batter hits into a double play 90% of the time (or more frequently than the user would like) that 1 and 2 have both occured.

[CFavs15]

Over the seasons I am talking about it occurred 44 out of 47 ,29 out of 34 and 36 out of 40 times (109 out of 121 90.1%)....

[CFavs15]

Over the seasons in question it happened 44 out of 47 , 29 out of 34 and 36 out of 40 times...If I find some time I can go back and see what other data I can compile but I can guarantee my teams don't hit into double plays that often.

[Will_L]

Do you play one pitch or pitch by pitch?

[Bobfather]

incorrect reply

[Bobfather]

Originally Posted by CFavs15

Over the seasons in question it happened 44 out of 47 , 29 out of 34 and 36 out of 40 times...If I find some time I can go back and see what other data I can compile but I can guarantee my teams don't hit into double plays that often.

What are the stolen base ratings of the runners (what scale)?

[Timofmars]

Originally Posted by Bobfather

What are the stolen base ratings of the runners (what scale)?

Stealing ability only seems to help with success rate of actually attempted steals. Running speed is what determines if the runner can get a good jump to actually then attempt the steal. So I think speed would be the useful stat to know in this case.

Low speed players have a hard time making a non-forced steal attempt. High speed players are likely to make the attempt on the 1st try.


To the OP, just to be clear, do you attempt the steal, it fails, and then you choose to swing away and get the DP?

[ALB123]

As far as what the OP of this thread claimed, I do not agree with his assessment that more often than not a double-play will result after a runner at 1st base breaks for 2nd, but then puts on the brakes and hustles back to 1st. It doesn't jive with my experiences managing games in OOTP. I just played 8 games since reading the original post and it didn't happen at all. I know, that's hardly scientific.

We all have experienced that one guy we need in our regular lineup, who posts very good numbers but strikes out at a ridiculous rate. Well, I'm sure most of you have also experienced that one guy you need to have in your regular lineup because his production is typically good...the downside of this hitter, however, is not strikeouts, but rather, grounding into textbook double plays at an extremely frustrating rate. My #5 hitter has been John Olerud for the past few seasons. I think I'm very fortunate to have him as a starter on my team. He's a very good hitter with two very big flaws. #1) He may be the slowest runner in OOTP. #2)
He hits into a lot of DPs. Last season, he led the Major Leagues in GDP with 36. Johnny averaged 1 double-play every 4 games! He is a DP machine.

Are you sure you don't happen to have a DP machine on your own team?

*********** BONUS CONTENT REGARDING BASE STEALING IN OOTP 21 ************* aka "ALB's Whining"

I was recently active in a different thread regarding base stealing in OOTP 21. My complaint is when I am playing a team with a good catcher who possesses a strong arm if I press the number 4 key, trying to steal second base, my base runner on 1st will almost always break for second base on that pitch. Whether he is safe or not isn't an issue with me.

If I am playing against the same exact team and they are using a backup catcher who has a poor arm or maybe a below-average arm, if I press the number 4 key, trying to steal second base, my base runner on 1st will almost always break for second base on that pitch, however, he will stop after a couple of steps and return to first base. I interpret that as my base runner on 1st realizing he got a terrible jump and smartly canceled his attempt to steal second base.

I have not collected data on this, but based on observation, it most certainly appears that my base runners will NOT try to steal second base when I ask them (press the number 4 key) if the opposing team has a catcher with a weak arm behind home plate.

I'm taking into account a pitcher's ability to hold runners. Some are better than others. So, let's just say that if every single important variable is the same except for the catcher's arm strength, my 3 best base stealers will follow my instructions much more often when the catcher's arm is strong. I've assumed that happens so we can't run all over the weaker catchers. At least, that's what I tell myself. LOL

[luckymann]

I will say here what I have said in various ways elsewhere on these boards: the issue raised in the OP is not a matter of sim accuracy, although it certainly plays its part because of how the engine works; it is a matter of game play. So it's no use seeking out sample sizes or statistics. If you sim games or seasons this problem does not exist. If, however, you play games out - I have only ever played in one-pitch mode, never pitch-by-pitch, so I am only speaking from that experience - there is a fundamental flaw in the way the game handles baserunning in general, and stealing in particular.

Anyone asking for corroborative stats or demanding a larger sample size, how about you do this instead: go and play out a season in one-pitch mode and see what happens. I will be shocked if you come back to this post (and others like it) satisfied by the in-game baserunning as it currently is.

The whole concept of human- vs AI-controlled stealing makes no sense whatsoever. Here are some reasons why:

• A fast player with high running ratings across the board controlled by a human facing a poor battery combo with regard to holding runners / throwing them out controlled by the AI will be stopped from attempting to steal at far beyond the rate it should be happening
  
• A slower player with worse running ratings controlled by the AI against a better battery combo will try to steal far more often than if the roles were reversed
  
• Trying to steal on a 0-0 count will result in the runner being picked off or a pitchout called at a higher rate than is to be expected. I have got the "art" down to having a hitter take the first pitch and if that pitch is a strike then I swing away from that point
  
• Trying to put on a hit and run with a player on first with anything better than average speed will at a far greater rate than should happen result in the batter - even those with good eye and / or contact ratings - swinging and missing (the pitch animation looking like a pitchout) and the runner being gunned down
  
• Trying to steal third meets with far less resistance than trying to steal second, even with a LHB at the plate.

I understand I open myself up to calls for quantification by using terms such as "at a far greater rate than you'd expect", but in this instance I mean in the framework of gameplay, not statistics. In other words, the whole process is clumsy.

As far as I'm concerned there should be the option to green light a player, which overrides the AI's ability to make the decision as to whether or not the runner goes. If the human manager wants to take his chances then they should be able to. The smart ones will quickly learn under which circumstances steals should be attempted, just as IRL, and the engine controlling the game should then make the judgement call using the ratings and situation as merit as to whether or not the steal is successful. That is, of course, assuming this sort of thing can be made to work.

I'm not saying it ruins the game the way it is. But it certainly reduces the enjoyment and the realism, especially with the bias so evident toward AI-controlled players and teams / against human controlled ones.

With regard to the other point raised in the OP. The reduced rate of attempted steals inflates the numbers of runners at first base for subsequent ABs. Inevitably, this has the flow-on effect of inflating the number of DPs. Although even I am surprised by the numbers you cite.

ALB raised a good point in another thread on the same topic, about how when in one-pitch mode the pitch count could have some effect. I do suspect this to be the case, and would love to hear what people who have experience playing in both one-pitch and pitch-by-pitch modes have to say on this.

[ablobj]

Originally Posted by CFavs15

Hi everyone,
I have now played over 1000 games and I wanted to see if anyone else has noticed that if you tell a runner to steal 2nd base and he doesn't go the batter will hit into a double play (I have seen this happen over 90% of the time over the last three seasons that I have played). Any thoughts?

CFavs

I've honestly never even seen a batter make contact when I tell a runner to steal second. Whether the runner decides to steal or not, it always results in the batter taking the pitch.

[ALB123]

Originally Posted by luckymann

I will say here what I have said in various ways elsewhere on these boards: the issue raised in the OP is not a matter of sim accuracy, although it certainly plays its part because of how the engine works; it is a matter of game play. So it's no use seeking out sample sizes or statistics. If you sim games or seasons this problem does not exist. If, however, you play games out - I have only ever played in one-pitch mode, never pitch-by-pitch, so I am only speaking from that experience - there is a fundamental flaw in the way the game handles baserunning in general, and stealing in particular.

Anyone asking for corroborative stats or demanding a larger sample size, how about you do this instead: go and play out a season in one-pitch mode and see what happens. I will be shocked if you come back to this post (and others like it) satisfied by the in-game baserunning as it currently is.

The whole concept of human- vs AI-controlled stealing makes no sense whatsoever. Here are some reasons why:

• A fast player with high running ratings across the board controlled by a human facing a poor battery combo with regard to holding runners / throwing them out controlled by the AI will be stopped from attempting to steal at far beyond the rate it should be happening
  
• A slower player with worse running ratings controlled by the AI against a better battery combo will try to steal far more often than if the roles were reversed
  
• Trying to steal on a 0-0 count will result in the runner being picked off or a pitchout called at a higher rate than is to be expected. I have got the "art" down to having a hitter take the first pitch and if that pitch is a strike then I swing away from that point
  
• Trying to put on a hit and run with a player on first with anything better than average speed will at a far greater rate than should happen result in the batter - even those with good eye and / or contact ratings - swinging and missing (the pitch animation looking like a pitchout) and the runner being gunned down
  
• Trying to steal third meets with far less resistance than trying to steal second, even with a LHB at the plate.

I understand I open myself up to calls for quantification by using terms such as "at a far greater rate than you'd expect", but in this instance I mean in the framework of gameplay, not statistics. In other words, the whole process is clumsy.

As far as I'm concerned there should be the option to green light a player, which overrides the AI's ability to make the decision as to whether or not the runner goes. If the human manager wants to take his chances then they should be able to. The smart ones will quickly learn under which circumstances steals should be attempted, just as IRL, and the engine controlling the game should then make the judgement call using the ratings and situation as merit as to whether or not the steal is successful. That is, of course, assuming this sort of thing can be made to work.

I'm not saying it ruins the game the way it is. But it certainly reduces the enjoyment and the realism, especially with the bias so evident toward AI-controlled players and teams / against human controlled ones.

With regard to the other point raised in the OP. The reduced rate of attempted steals inflates the numbers of runners at first base for subsequent ABs. Inevitably, this has the flow-on effect of inflating the number of DPs. Although even I am surprised by the numbers you cite.

ALB raised a good point in another thread on the same topic, about how when in one-pitch mode the pitch count could have some effect. I do suspect this to be the case, and would love to hear what people who have experience playing in both one-pitch and pitch-by-pitch modes have to say on this.

I play out probably 145+ games each season. I agree, Luckymann, that my team produces many more successful stealing attempts when I have the AI simulate the game on my behalf compared to playing the games out myself. And it's not like the AI is making a ridiculous number of base stealing attempts each game that it simulates for me. If it did, I'd be seeing large numbers of "caught stealing" from my players too.

To sum up, none of my complaints are related to base stealing in simulated games. Any complaints I have are 100% related to when I play out all 9 innings myself. In fact, I think the AI does a great job of simulating "base stealing" when it has 100% control of my team and simulates behind closed doors.

Oh, btw, Luckymann... I went to your https://atl-02.statsplus.net/footnote/ website. That looks awesome! I can't wait to visit when the league is in full swing.

Originally Posted by ablobj

I've honestly never even seen a batter make contact when I tell a runner to steal second. Whether the runner decides to steal or not, it always results in the batter taking the pitch.

Yes. That is by design. That way, there is the possibility of having straight steal attempts in addition to the Hit & Run and Run & Hit options.

What you're looking for is the "Run & Hit" play. That tells the runner to do a straight steal attempt of 2nd or 3rd base. Plus, the hitter can then decide if he wants to swing or not.

With a "Hit & Run" play, the base runner doesn't break toward 2nd or 3rd base like a stolen base attempt until the ball is about to come out of the pitcher's hand (the pitcher is fully committed to throwing a pitch). In this play, the batter is obligated to swing the bat at almost everything so the runner isn't dead meat due to his late break toward the next base.

Summary:

Press 4 or 5 - The batter will not swing
Press 9 - The batter will always swing
Press a - The batter has the choice to swing or not

Press 4, 5 or a - The base runner breaks for the next base immediately once the pitcher starts his delivery
Press 9 - The base runner has a slight delay before he breaks for the next base.

[CFavs15]

Hi everyone,
Thanks for all of the responses. Just to be clear , there will be a runner on first base (I rarely steal with a runner that has less than a rating of 65), I will click on "Steal Second" the runner will start and stop and return to first base, the batter takes the pitch, I will then click on "swing away" and as noted above the batter will hit into a double play at the rate noted above...

[ablobj]

I decided to try for myself and see what kind of results I would get. My Methodology was:

1. Intentionally walk every batter who came to the plate with less than two outs.

2. After that batter reached first base, change the pitching team to AI controlled.

3. If second base is open with less than two outs, click "steal second base."

4. If the runner doesn't attempt to steal, click "swing away" on the following pitch.

Results:

I clicked "steal second base" 34 times.
Runners only attempted to steal 7 times.
The 27 times the runner did not attempt to steal resulted in 3 double plays.

Yes, I realize it's nowhere near a legit sample size

I did see one thing that I've never seen before though, a runner on first reaching second on a sac fly. Plus, despite giving up 12 walks, Mike Flanagan threw a gem of a game, going the distance and only allowing one run on two hits.

[ablobj]

[RchW]

Originally Posted by ablobj

I've honestly never even seen a batter make contact when I tell a runner to steal second. Whether the runner decides to steal or not, it always results in the batter taking the pitch.

Which is the "rule"for steals IRL. If you want the batter to swing, hit and run. The "rule" for that is to swing no matter where the ball is.

[ablobj]

Originally Posted by RchW

Which is the "rule"for steals IRL. If you want the batter to swing, hit and run. The "rule" for that is to swing no matter where the ball is.

Yes, but the OP's original post, before it was clarified, was that every time OP would tell the runner to steal second and the runner didn't attempt the steal, the result was a double play 90% of the time. That's where my confusion came into play.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by ablobj

I decided to try for myself and see what kind of results I would get. My Methodology was:

1. Intentionally walk every batter who came to the plate with less than two outs.

2. After that batter reached first base, change the pitching team to AI controlled.

3. If second base is open with less than two outs, click "steal second base."

4. If the runner doesn't attempt to steal, click "swing away" on the following pitch.

Results:

I clicked "steal second base" 34 times.
Runners only attempted to steal 7 times.
The 27 times the runner did not attempt to steal resulted in 3 double plays.

Yes, I realize it's nowhere near a legit sample size

I did see one thing that I've never seen before though, a runner on first reaching second on a sac fly. Plus, despite giving up 12 walks, Mike Flanagan threw a gem of a game, going the distance and only allowing one run on two hits.

If the "true" percentage were 90%, this result would be very unlikely.