I wonder what the odds are...

[dboeyr12007]

I opened several hundred packs tonight and received two perfects. I was pleasantly surprised when the first one was not a live, and was a Sandy Koufax. Not the most valuable, but I would take it every single time. Then my second perfect came out awhile later. I was again excited to see it was historical. Then I noticed...It was Sandy Koufax. Definitely love getting them, just wonder what the odds were of pulling the exact same historical perfect twice in a row. Made it a really fun night of pack opening. Best card I have ever opened.

[BigRed75]

Feel free to put the second one on for a BIN of 98,274 PP (the exact amount I have in my account)

[tbonetim]

Originally Posted by dboeyr12007

I opened several hundred packs tonight and received two perfects. I was pleasantly surprised when the first one was not a live, and was a Sandy Koufax. Not the most valuable, but I would take it every single time. Then my second perfect came out awhile later. I was again excited to see it was historical. Then I noticed...It was Sandy Koufax. Definitely love getting them, just wonder what the odds were of pulling the exact same historical perfect twice in a row. Made it a really fun night of pack opening. Best card I have ever opened.

Nice, I have only been able to pull one historical perfect all year (Bob Gibson). I have pulled about between 7 and 10 Perfect Live cards which don't really help a team much at all past Silver levels. Also, it does seem that when ripping 20 packs or more open at a time, there is a trend towards certain cards being pulled multiple times. Granted haven't heard of anyone pulling the same historical perfect but sometimes I think the auction market can provide a window to see which historical card is really populating a lot that week.

[Hoover36]

Wouldn't duplicate protection be a nice feature?

[dkgo]

Originally Posted by Hoover36

Wouldn't duplicate protection be a nice feature?

No, it would be incredibly stupid in a market based game

[Hoover36]

It wouldn't change the "market" in the least. How many "duplicate" diamonds do you think are "in the market".

[One Great Matrix]

Originally Posted by dboeyr12007

I opened several hundred packs tonight and received two perfects. I was pleasantly surprised when the first one was not a live, and was a Sandy Koufax. Not the most valuable, but I would take it every single time. Then my second perfect came out awhile later. I was again excited to see it was historical. Then I noticed...It was Sandy Koufax. Definitely love getting them, just wonder what the odds were of pulling the exact same historical perfect twice in a row. Made it a really fun night of pack opening. Best card I have ever opened.

The original whales' closer of choice.

[BigRed75]

Originally Posted by Hoover36

Wouldn't duplicate protection be a nice feature?

The day you see that with physical Topps baseball cards is the day you'll see it in PT.

Duplicates are a part of collecting.

[Hoover36]

Originally Posted by BigRed75

The day you see that with physical Topps baseball cards is the day you'll see it in PT.

Duplicates are a part of collecting.

The day Topps goes all digital card collecting is the day the hobby ends.

This is not a physical card collecting game, nor is it a market based game. I

I will go out on a limb and guess anyone against duplicate protection (at least on the high end cards) has yet to pull a duplicate perfect...when they only have 3 in their collection at the time to start with. Does it sell via AH, sure, but it is REALLY disappointing.

[dkgo]

Originally Posted by Hoover36

It wouldn't change the "market" in the least. How many "duplicate" diamonds do you think are "in the market".

Yes it would because people would keep the crappy diamonds/perfects in their collection and then guarantee themselves opening the high value ones. It also gives a perverse incentive that whenever you open packs you would want to put your high value cards on the auction house or else you won't be able to pack another one. Yuck!

Duplicate protection only works in a game like hearthstone or magic arena where the cards you open all have the same resource value and have zero impact on anyone else playing the game

[Hoover36]

P.S. it doesn’t end duplicates, just means no duplicates at each tier until all cards of that tier are owned.

[allenciox]

Ok, well, we can easily calculate the odds. According to the PT21 Card List (see sticky above), there are 80 non-SE historical perfects. That was last updated a couple of weeks ago, so does not include the ones added since then, so maybe 83 total there. Plus add on the 25 FOTF perfects that can also be drawn in packs makes 108.

The probability that your next perfect will be historical after drawing your first one is 40%. so the probability of drawing the same historical perfect with your next one is .4/108, or 0.37%, which is actually not as low as I would have thought.

Another way of putting it is that, suppose over the course of the game you open 10 historical perfects. The probability of having two identical historical perfects in a row over the course of that is approximately* 9*.4/108= 3.33%: i.e. about 1 in 30 people will have that occur for them.

* Note that I say approximately. That is because these probabilities discount possibility of it happening more than once for some of them, but that probability is small enough that it is only going to change by a tiny amount, perhaps 1 in 31 instead of 1 in 30, where one of those people has it happen twice instead of once.

[dkgo]

If you open a duplicate perfect you can sell it on the AH and use the PP to buy any similar value perfect that you want. How is that disappointing? Opening one live perfect is like opening your choice of all of them.

[BigRed75]

Originally Posted by Hoover36

The day Topps goes all digital card collecting is the day the hobby ends.

That's a nice red herring.

Originally Posted by Hoover36

This is not a physical card collecting game, nor is it a market based game.

Well, hate to break it to you, but this is, in fact, a market-based game.

I've tried to be polite, but now I'm going to have to echo dkgo here. Duplicate protection is an incredibly stupid idea.

Did you think it through? I mean, REALLY think it through? With duplicate protection, open enough enough packs, and you'll get every card available.

Talk about wrecking the game.

If duplicate protection was such a great idea, it'd already be in the game. This is not a case of something that is a great idea that nobody thought of before, this is something that was rejected out of hand because it would absolutely kill the in-game economy.

[dkgo]

Originally Posted by Hoover36

P.S. it doesn’t end duplicates, just means no duplicates at each tier until all cards of that tier are owned.

So I keep all the crappy historical diamonds/perfects in my collection and then every time the dice roll hits a historical diamond/perfect in a pack it is guaranteed to be a high value one. If you cant see how this screws up the economy of the game then it is hopeless trying to communicate with you.

[dkgo]

And like I said, the auction house already is your duplicate protection. Pull a live diamond that you already have? Sell it and buy one that you don't for the same price.

[allenciox]

so the actual probability for an individual, based on figuring it the right way, is 1-(1-.4/108)^9=.0328=3.28%, so it decreases by .05% (5/10000) compared to the simple way of calculating.

[Hoover36]

Originally Posted by BigRed75

Well, hate to break it to you, but this is, in fact, a market-based game.

Last time I checked, it is actually a baseball simulation game. Has it turned into a market game? Perhaps...which also seems to be a common complaint on these forums. Getting back to a simulation game, might actually make it more enjoyable. Though each person has their own motivation for enjoyment in playing.

Originally Posted by BigRed75

I've tried to be polite, but now I'm going to have to echo dkgo here. Duplicate protection is an incredibly stupid idea.

Did you think it through? I mean, REALLY think it through? With duplicate protection, open enough enough packs, and you'll get every card available.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion that you think it is a stupid idea. I disagree. I am sure you could find a plethora of people who support your position and there are a plethora who would support mine. Doesn't make either wrong, hence why it can be debated. Don't get so emotionally invested in an internet conversation.

I have really thought about it. It is a major reason (one of many) why I will not spend a dime purchasing points...yet. I am more than willing to spend some money on points...if the value/incentive was there to do so. I spend a thousand or two a year on digital game entertainment. I would love to spread some of that to OOTP. I really enjoy this game and I am all in favor of supporting the developers of this game to ensure its longevity.

Someone above mentioned 108 historical perfects. I will take that number at face value. I will also take at face value that there is a 30/70 split on cards Historical/Live. On average 200 packs per perfect. That means I would need purchase 72,000 @ 1000 PP. (108 hist. perf. divided by .30 = 360 tot. perf. multiplied by 200 packs per perfect = 72,000 packs needed multiplies by 1000 PP). A mere 72 million points to acquire all historical perfects. Let's say I am impatient an want to purchase all of those points immediately at account creation. I simply have to invest a mere $41,000. I can see how you think the game would be wrecked.

Originally Posted by BigRed75

If duplicate protection was such a great idea, it'd already be in the game. This is not a case of something that is a great idea that nobody thought of before, this is something that was rejected out of hand because it would absolutely kill the in-game economy.

If enough of the user base requested it, it is likely it would be added to the game. However, if the demand is not there, why waste the time.

I would certainly argue there are much bigger fish to fry. Contact/Power issue, ratings/performance issues, competitive balance and others that aren't coming to the top of my mind. This aspect of the game is in its infancy. It's not perfect by any means at the outset, but it has so, so much potential. Not to mention that even in its early stages, it is still extremely entertaining.

[dkgo]

I don't understand why you keep pretending that the auction house doesn't exist. Everything you say is only relevant if opening packs was the sole way to acquire cards.

That's why your math is technically correct but 100% useless. I've opened probably 20K packs if not more in OOTP20. Did I spend $11,000 on PP? No, I spent nothing because in the long run each pack contains cards that sell for what you need to open another pack (combined with achievement PP).

[Hoover36]

So since the math doesn't support your original argument, you want to change the argument to "well just use the auction house".

I do use the auction house...exclusively. I enter tournaments for packs. I do all the same things that the serious F2P player base does to enjoy this game.

My point was a simple one. I am a customer willing to spend money, but won't under the current set up. That sentiment is based on opening several thousand packs. It is disappointing to open yet another Mike Crudale...the 4th one when there are still hundreds of golds I don't have. Not to mention the FOTF Biggio that was opened...literally a day after completing the mission.

I know that my enjoyment and willingness to spend money on PP, and thusly pack instead of AH, would be improved if I knew new gold and perfect cards would be new and not AH fodder.