How do Inaugural Draft budgets set Market Size?

[Joelman111]

Does anybody know the nitty gritty details of how the team draft budget sets the team market size?

Here's the work I've done so far:
1. It is determinant. The same inputs will always yield the same outputs.

- Tested by finding a narrow boundary between team budget and market size and inputting multiple times. ($4.77M goes to market size of 6; $4.78M goes to market size of 7).

2. It is mean-dependent. The exact same distribution of budgets with the mean shifted up or down will lead to different results.

- Tested by setting 1/3 of teams budgets to $8M, 1/3 to $5M, and 1/3 to $2M, which led to market sizes of 9, 7, and 4. Then, setting 1/3 to $7M, 1/3 to $4M, and 1/3 to $1M, which led to market sizes of 10, 7, and 3. As you can see, the only thing that changed here was the mean, but there were differing results.


I will continue to update as I do more experiments, but I am at a loss for how these values are calculated based on the given team budgets.

[Rain King]

Yes, it is mean dependent..and the ranges seem to be about .15 based on the budget set vs. the mean.

For example:

0.45 - 0.59 = 4 market size
0.6 - 0.84 = 5 market size
0.85-0.99 = 6 market size
1.0-1.14 = 7 market size
1.15-1.29 = 8 market size
1.30-1.44 = 9 market size

As you get more extreme, the ranges may get larger...I haven't experimented quite enough to set the budgets and 100% get the expected market, but I am never off by more than 1 market level and my chart probably gets the expected result 80%-90% of the time.