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Old 08-30-2020, 02:15 PM   #1
FuzzyDarkness
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Unhappy Is this drop in OVR rating normal?

Hey, I am playing with scouting accuracy 100% and saw this just now with one of my players. Is this normal? Did I do something wrong? Is it just the age?

23 points in one month?!

Any tips will be appreciated because if it's like this then I'll disable player development altogether. I spent so much hours trading for players and optimizing the team.

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Old 08-30-2020, 02:34 PM   #2
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It can certainly happen, yes
Just like in real life
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Old 08-30-2020, 03:03 PM   #3
Brad K
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I never play into the future. But how can you not have player development on when playing into the future?
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Old 08-30-2020, 04:20 PM   #4
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I never play into the future. But how can you not have player development on when playing into the future?
Well, I found an option for "talent change randomness" and lowered it to 1. I will see what it will do as I can't find anything in the manual about it.

But to answer your question: I don't know but I don't want this either. I spent hours and hours on trades and achieved what I wanted with the Detroit Tigers. Last year I won 61 games, this year I was around .550 win percentage and then suddenly my team started loosing. No big deal, it happens. I ended the season just under .500 and was pretty happy but if I try to better the team and talent just can drop 20 points over night then what is the point? Why invest so much time when it's a roll of the dice.
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Old 08-30-2020, 04:24 PM   #5
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Players in their mid-30's have a propensity to decline. If you are re-building, that isn't the direction I would recommend going. Acquiring players at that age always brings with it some risk.

Talent Change randomness wouldn't have likely done much about Kimbrel as that was probably due to aging. Talent changes largely happen while players are still prospect age. Perhaps you want to adjust the aging modifiers if you do not want older players to decline as quickly.

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Old 08-30-2020, 06:42 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by FuzzyDarkness View Post
Why invest so much time when it's a roll of the dice.
After a few CEI's a 20 pt drop will look much better.... I have always worried about that randomness when it comes time for the injury die roll... Good luck with your Tigers...


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Old 08-30-2020, 08:50 PM   #7
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if I try to better the team and talent just can drop 20 points over night then what is the point? Why invest so much time when it's a roll of the dice.
Life is a roll of the dice. I'm going to stop investing so much time in it!!!

Anyway, any player can get better or worse. After a while you'll have a better idea of the kind of odds you're facing.

Young players can go up or down. Old players are much more likely to go down. CFs get old fast as far as being able to play CF. I've generally had good outcomes with 30ish RPs.
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Old 08-31-2020, 03:54 PM   #8
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Well, I found an option for "talent change randomness" and lowered it to 1. I will see what it will do as I can't find anything in the manual about it.

... Why invest so much time when it's a roll of the dice.
First part:
This won't have the effect you are looking for. Been playing with it set to 1 for a while now, and you will see very little variation in sharp changes among the 18 to 19 crowd and the 32 plus crowd. Not saying there is not an effect... just that you will def see exactly what you are seeing above on occasion.

Second Part:
It's a simulation. Some young studs make it... some will fizzle by 21. Some 31-year-old players continue as stars for several more years... and most are quickly done by 32 or 33. You scout, you try and make good decisions based on reward vs risk and you get pissed when you sign a "can't fail" like Albert Pujols. Sometimes there are warning signs such as with Pujols and your player... but often there are not.

That's baseball... but I get it. It's fantasy, and sometimes a little more certainty is simply... well... more fun. If you are new to the game, but know some baseball history... consider a recalc league. You can recreate history, or even play with random players from across the baseball timeline. You'll have the advantage of having a sense of each player's future... but what you do with that information is up to you.
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Old 08-31-2020, 06:31 PM   #9
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If you are new to the game, but know some baseball history... consider a recalc league. You can recreate history, or even play with random players from across the baseball timeline. You'll have the advantage of having a sense of each player's future... but what you do with that information is up to you.
Having a sense of the future can be a huge advantage or a lesser one depending on other settings. I play recalc 3 year not weighted, development on, talent change 100, neutralized database, historical rookies, scouting normal accuracy.

Here are some individual records. Players who played in 1951 get all their stats but those who retired before 1951 don't exist.

Career Home Run Leaders (all players retired)

Name Game RL
Ted Williams 605 521
Willie Mays 603 660
Harmon Killebrew 602 573
Hank Aaron 597 755
Willie Stargell 580 475
Frank Robinson 577 586
Mickey Mantle 547 536
Joe Adcock 518 336
Willie McCovey 491 521
Eddie Matthews 477 512

I think all these stats are plausible while not being predictable. Looking at RL stats is probably about as much an advantage as having a super scout.

Nobody reaching 755 or even 714? Well, I consider doing that real life to require a LOT everything good coming together in the best possible way.

And if an OOTP player relies on RL records exclusively good opportunities will go by. The super star who career injuries out of the game at age 23, well someone has to do what he did.

In my current game I have just finished 1983 and my Closer is George Korince rated 4.5 stars by my scout at age 37. Career is 97-77 W-L, 277 Saves, 3.18 ERA, 1.27 WHIP. Real life? 1-0 W-L, 0 Saves, 4.24 ERA, 1.47 WHIP in a mere 17 innings in 1966 and 1967.

So there still can be a lot of unknowns even with real players and recalc. It depends on how its set up. I've played easier setups and moved to this. At some point I'll probably throw in something to make it harder.
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Old 09-01-2020, 05:56 AM   #10
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Looking at RL stats is probably about as much an advantage as having a super scout.
I respectfully disagree. In recalc, rating randomness only comes into play when there are no stats in a given season to factor in to the recalc. I can not only tell whether or not I am safe to give a player a 10 year contract, I can say with certainty what his ratings will be 5 years down the line (on day one of the offseason) given given the other settings of my game.

I can tell neither of the above even with 100% scouting accuracy.
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Old 09-01-2020, 11:48 AM   #11
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In my current game Roberto Clemente was 293/324/435 versus real life 317/359/475. Circa 10,000 PAs in each situation is certainly a large sample. More illustrative is 65.5 WAR in the game versus 94.8 real life, a huge difference. It certainly would not have been safe to give him a ten year contract with an amount based on his real life performance.

Also in the same game Willie Stargell won Rookie of the Year and his ratings at the time supported his achievement. And, as reported above, he had a chance to be the all time HR leader.

So maybe I'm misattributing the cause, but something in my settings is resulting in substantial rating deviations during a time where RL data is available.

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Old 09-01-2020, 12:19 PM   #12
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The simulation itself is going to produce numbers that have a range of outcomes. However, from what I understand, if you are using Recalc then any OOTP development engine affects would be getting wiped out each year at the time of the Recalc.

I don't play much historical, however, so don't really have any hands-on experience here.
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Old 09-01-2020, 12:55 PM   #13
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I really wanna thank you so much for your answers! It is very much appreciated.

I am still very new to the game and sometimes it frustrates me, especially when investing so much time in finding good players (at least I think they will be good) and then the team can't win no matter what.

But I still enjoy it very much.

Maybe that is why I love Perfect Team so much, as I have the feeling of getting gradually better while I can't get worse (I mean the players can't drop in ratings, just have a bad season).

I also might have concentrated too much on overall ratings (that's why I played with 100% accuracy of scouting) as I thought I could make better decisions and see results fast.

I went a bit crazy now with my Detroit save and will concentrate purely on stats the players put up. I traded a very high rated pitcher away for a much lower rated pitcher who has great stats.

So I will experiment with this save and see what works, if anything.
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Old 09-01-2020, 12:58 PM   #14
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In my current game Roberto Clemente was 293/324/435 versus real life 317/359/475. Circa 10,000 PAs in each situation is certainly a large sample. More illustrative is 65.5 WAR in the game versus 94.8 real life, a huge difference. It certainly would not have been safe to give him a ten year contract with an amount based on his real life performance.

Also in the same game Willie Stargell won Rookie of the Year and his ratings at the time supported his achievement. And, as reported above, he had a chance to be the all time HR leader.

So maybe I'm misattributing the cause, but something in my settings is resulting in substantial rating deviations during a time where RL data is available.
I'm mispeaking and potentially coming across as if I am questioning your observations. That is not my intention.

There are a lot of things that can cause decent sized shifts in stats. I'm simply referring to comparing one player to another when I am determining who is more valueable... or for how long a player will be successful. For example I KNOW that Nolan Ryan will be successful into his 40s and will have no qualms signing him to a 10 year contract when he is 32. I also know that Catfish Hunter at age 29 will only have 1 good season left if he has not already sharply declined (3 year vs 5 year)... and will not sign him to even a 5 year contract. I, in no way, would place a money bet on the approximate ERA of either player in any given season.
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Old 09-01-2020, 01:02 PM   #15
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I really wanna thank you so much for your answers! It is very much appreciated.

I am still very new to the game and sometimes it frustrates me, especially when investing so much time in finding good players (at least I think they will be good) and then the team can't win no matter what.

But I still enjoy it very much.

Maybe that is why I love Perfect Team so much, as I have the feeling of getting gradually better while I can't get worse (I mean the players can't drop in ratings, just have a bad season).

I also might have concentrated too much on overall ratings (that's why I played with 100% accuracy of scouting) as I thought I could make better decisions and see results fast.

I went a bit crazy now with my Detroit save and will concentrate purely on stats the players put up. I traded a very high rated pitcher away for a much lower rated pitcher who has great stats.

So I will experiment with this save and see what works, if anything.
There are an endless number of ways to set up this game. If you like baseball, you can def come up with settings that are the cat's meow, the bee's knees, fine as a frog's hair... or whatever term means awesome to you
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Old 09-01-2020, 01:09 PM   #16
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Career Home Run Leaders (all players retired)

Name Game RL
Ted Williams 605 521
Willie Mays 603 660
Harmon Killebrew 602 573
Hank Aaron 597 755
Willie Stargell 580 475
Frank Robinson 577 586
Mickey Mantle 547 536
Joe Adcock 518 336
Willie McCovey 491 521
Eddie Matthews 477 512
In my current game below playing the fictional NY Knicks I have just hit 1962 and look forward to many of the names on your HR leaderboard. If you don't count Mel Ott with 642 HRs (Pre Modern Basdeball in your league) then Ted Williams would also be the leader in mine with 619 career HRs. Should have had more but missed much of 2 seasons in the 50s with injuries.
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Old 09-01-2020, 02:58 PM   #17
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Interestingly despite the in some cases huge differences, in my game the HR totals of the leaders are only 2.2% higher than real life.
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Old 09-01-2020, 03:12 PM   #18
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For example I KNOW that Nolan Ryan will be successful into his 40s and will have no qualms signing him to a 10 year contract when he is 32. I also know that Catfish Hunter at age 29 will only have 1 good season left if he has not already sharply declined (3 year vs 5 year)... and will not sign him to even a 5 year contract. I, in no way, would place a money bet on the approximate ERA of either player in any given season.
I agree there is an ability to sign a player to a long term contract when its known he will have a long career.

In 30 years with my settings I had a .020 higher winning percentage and finished first the same number of time compared with the historical team. I have mostly players historical to the team because I have historical rookies set to on. (I think a draft of real players is a HUGE advantage for the OOTP player.)

Anyway, I haven't been significantly more successful than the historical team. I can finish first when several players have a great year at the same time. That feels right. If there is a huge advantage to these settings then I have to conclude I don't have the skills to exploit it. Which is OK. As before, the results feel right.

If I start winning too much I'll make something harder. Maybe cut payroll. I usually run from a bit below the half way mark to (more often) a bit above.
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Old 09-01-2020, 03:15 PM   #19
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In my current game below playing the fictional NY Knicks I have just hit 1962 and look forward to many of the names on your HR leaderboard. If you don't count Mel Ott with 642 HRs (Pre Modern Basdeball in your league) then Ted Williams would also be the leader in mine with 619 career HRs. Should have had more but missed much of 2 seasons in the 50s with injuries.
An interesting assortment of years. I've only once started as early as 1954 (current game). It started in 51 but I didn't go in as GM until 1954.
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Old 09-04-2020, 08:25 AM   #20
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Just to follow up a bit on my Tigers save... I completely abandoned the OVR ratings and just looked at the statistics the players put up lately and I did okay. At least until the last month of the season. I was slightly above .500 wins and at the end of the season I was back to the usual .475 (circa) with the Tigers. Are they contractually obligated to end the season under .500?!

Any ideas (I know this can be a million things but still) on why the last month went down the hill? All season long I was around .500

I will force trade next season some mega players and sim through just to see if they still will end up under .500
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