1908 New York Giants

davec1946 · 08-18-2020, 11:45 PM

I picked the 1908 Giants to manage because they barely lost out to the Cubs in a great three-team race that year, with the Giants and Pirates finishing a game back of the Cubs after New York lost a replay of the "Merkle boner" game on the last day of the season.

While the real 1908 Giants struggled in the early season, as recounted in Fleming's "The Unforgettable Season," struggling around the .500 mark for several weeks, my Giants blasted off. They swept an early four-game series with the Cubs and won three of four from the Pirates.

By June 9, my Giants were 34-9 (real Giants 23-20), with an 11.5-game lead over both the Pirates and Cubs. This seemed too good to be true, and it was. There were obvious danger signs that the race would get a lot tighter in the coming weeks.

First, the Giants were winning at a 79 percent clip, a rate that was clearly unsustainable. The best winning percentage in the modern major leagues was 76 percent for the 1906 Cubs, when they finished 116-36. The 1908 Giants were a good club, but while they might win 100 games or so, 79 percent for the season would give them 122 victories!

Another danger sign was that, while the Giants had a better run differential than either of their rivals, both the Cubs and Pirates were well below their expected wins according to the Pythagorean formula..

It seemed clear at that point that the Giants would cool off considerably, with their win percentage falling into the sixties, while the Cubs and Pirates could both be expected to improve their records.

Sure enough, the Giants lost 23 of their next 37 games, falling to 48-32, or 60 percent, by July 17, while the Pirates and Cubs climbed to within one-half game and 3.5 games respectively. Despite the OOTP Giants' red-hot start and the real 1908 Giants' struggles, by that point the real Giants had improved to 47-33, just one game off my pace.

I think this is an example of teams "reverting to the mean," just like individual players, over a long season. How many times have we heard about a player "on pace" to hit 120 homers or drive in 230 runs a dozen or so games into the season? By June or July, reality has set in, and those early performances are a distant memory.

Buster Cherry · 08-19-2020, 12:28 AM

I did the 1908 Giants once and they blew the competition away. I think they won the league by 15 games over second place Pittsburgh. The Cubs, who won the pennant in real life, basically up and quit on the season and started a firesale. Before the trading deadline they offered me HOF Three Fingered Brown and only wanted a couple of stiffs in return. I basically didn't have the heart to make the deal.

08-18-2020, 11:45 PM	#1
davec1946 Bat Boy Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 4	1908 New York Giants I picked the 1908 Giants to manage because they barely lost out to the Cubs in a great three-team race that year, with the Giants and Pirates finishing a game back of the Cubs after New York lost a replay of the "Merkle boner" game on the last day of the season. While the real 1908 Giants struggled in the early season, as recounted in Fleming's "The Unforgettable Season," struggling around the .500 mark for several weeks, my Giants blasted off. They swept an early four-game series with the Cubs and won three of four from the Pirates. By June 9, my Giants were 34-9 (real Giants 23-20), with an 11.5-game lead over both the Pirates and Cubs. This seemed too good to be true, and it was. There were obvious danger signs that the race would get a lot tighter in the coming weeks. First, the Giants were winning at a 79 percent clip, a rate that was clearly unsustainable. The best winning percentage in the modern major leagues was 76 percent for the 1906 Cubs, when they finished 116-36. The 1908 Giants were a good club, but while they might win 100 games or so, 79 percent for the season would give them 122 victories! Another danger sign was that, while the Giants had a better run differential than either of their rivals, both the Cubs and Pirates were well below their expected wins according to the Pythagorean formula.. It seemed clear at that point that the Giants would cool off considerably, with their win percentage falling into the sixties, while the Cubs and Pirates could both be expected to improve their records. Sure enough, the Giants lost 23 of their next 37 games, falling to 48-32, or 60 percent, by July 17, while the Pirates and Cubs climbed to within one-half game and 3.5 games respectively. Despite the OOTP Giants' red-hot start and the real 1908 Giants' struggles, by that point the real Giants had improved to 47-33, just one game off my pace. I think this is an example of teams "reverting to the mean," just like individual players, over a long season. How many times have we heard about a player "on pace" to hit 120 homers or drive in 230 runs a dozen or so games into the season? By June or July, reality has set in, and those early performances are a distant memory.

08-19-2020, 12:28 AM	#2
Buster Cherry Minors (Triple A) Join Date: May 2019 Location: Southwest Virginia Posts: 297	I did the 1908 Giants once and they blew the competition away. I think they won the league by 15 games over second place Pittsburgh. The Cubs, who won the pennant in real life, basically up and quit on the season and started a firesale. Before the trading deadline they offered me HOF Three Fingered Brown and only wanted a couple of stiffs in return. I basically didn't have the heart to make the deal.