When to cut and run on a season?

[Cynical]

So, the 2021 season is going absolutely putrid for my team. After a good start, we've put up a .200 winning percentage so far in May, for a record of 23-30 through our first 53. On one hand, I know the time to actually give up is much later than most fans want the team to. On the other hand, we're already 8.5 GB and it's the last year of team control for Greinke -- if we're going to be hopeless, I'd rather trade him and get something for him rather than just spend his last season on complete futility (extending him is out of the question, he wants 5 years of ~$25mil in his late 30s, LOL NO). Also, next season we lose Verlander -- that may sound like a negative, but it's not, because in this game, he's aged so badly in the last season in a half that he's quite possibly the worst player on the team (overall rating: 35, with 45 stuff and 35 movement, so he can't strike guys out OR keep it in the park), and is getting paid $30 million for being terrible (I'd probably just straight-up release him if I wasn't worried about fan backlash; as it is, I've demoted him to garbage-time long relief, and he sucks even at that!), and getting rid of that albatross makes me more inclined to look forward to next year than to try to salvage this SNAFU...


(You'd think a rotation featuring DeGrom, McCullers Jr., Gaussman, Greinke, and a promising kind from AAA would be good for better than a 5.04 ERA, but nope... and it would be even worse were it not for the random prospect greatly outperforming his real skill, since he has the best ERA on the team right now at 3.50. DeGrom, Geinke, and Gaussman all have ERAs over 5, with Greinke and Gaussman having close to 6 and FIPs that are nearly as high.)

[RBI Baseball]

LOL... forget rebuilding, sounds like you could improve your current team by moving Grienke and Gausman. Have you shopped them? Anything interesting offered back?

[RBI Baseball]

Also, I would have expected it to be your hitters falling apart without being fed the signs.
Sorry, couldn't help myself.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Cynical

When to cut and run on a season?

When you're sure you're not going to be competitive

Assuming you're the Astros and haven't drastically altered the team, 8 games out on June is too soon

[BBGiovanni]

I agree with CBeisbol for sure. I remember one year so bad that instead of playing all the games out (which I normally do) I started simming more and more per week until I was simming an entire week at a time. And lo and behold by September my team was in second and ended up in a dogfight for the rest of the month and ended up losing the pennant by one game! It was amazing.


So, it's too early for you. For someone like Jake, consider that there are in all likelihood two months coming up where he "regresses to the mean" and pitches lights-out until his stats end up looking like you'd expect them to look for a season. It's the opposite of the guy who starts out hitting .500 in April and May then stinks for the rest of the year and ends up at .240, just in reverse.


Also, don't think of it as a yes/no question. As in, do I fire sale everyone now or keep everyone until the season is totally lost? Greinke might be a good example... you could sell him for a real prospect and one or more mediocre prospects/lottery tickets, or maybe a prospect and some filler starter that can pitch the rest of your games for this year, maybe even under contract for next year. Or flip him for prospects and take on a salary dump deal from another team to backfill giving away someone you don't want anyway. Your team (probably) doesn't get much worse, results-wise, and overall you're better because you have a couple of prospects and a middling record rather than just a middling record. I've found v.21 computer teams are as eager to tank as their real-life counterparts, maybe too eager, but in any case if you have (or can make) temporary salary room you can borrow some players on expiring contracts for not too much that might help you out.

[Cynical]

What would you consider "drastically altered"?


Springer is out until September with an injury; Osuna has been injury-prone to the point of spending most of his time on rehab assignments where he just gets re-injured; Verlander got demoted out of the rotation (as mentioned above); Gurriel has been demoted to bench player (age has caught up with him badly), and I've got Alvarez playing 1B full-time instead of DHing. The bullpen has been almost entirely rebuilt actually, but the current one is almost strictly an upgrade (and is one of the few bright spots of the current team).


(Overall team look:


C: M. Maldonado
1B: Y. Alvarez
2B: J. Altuve
SS: C. Correa
3B: A. Bregman
CF: M. Gerber
LF: M. Brantley
RF: K. Tucker


Bench (DH also comes out of this pool):
C. Shaver (backup C)
J. Bruce (DH v. R/PH v. R/backup LF/backup 1B)
Y. Tsutsugo (DH v. R/PH v R/backup LF)
Y. Gurriel (backup 1B/backup 3B)
A. Diaz (DH v. L/PH v. L/backup SS/backup 2B)


Rotation:
1. DeGrom
2. LMJ
3. Gaussman
4. Greinke
5. Abott


Bullpen:
F. Valdez
J. Verlander
D. Keuchel (I was regretting this trade for a while -- it was Reddick for Keuchel, one albatross for another, at a point last year when I was in desperate need for any pitching I could get -- but he's reinvented himself as a reliever it seems, lots of innings and a sub-2 ERA... I expect regression)
R. Pressley
J. Kelly
H. Nerris
M. Diaz
T. Scott


Notables on the IL:
G. Springer
R. Osuna)


Current future plans:
1. If we're not competitive, trade Greinke for prospect or decent player with some years of team control.
2. If we get in a hot race, release Verlander and call up just about any starter from the minors to take his place in long relief
3. At some point, with the budget eaten by Greinke and Verlander freed up, get a good catcher.
4. Find major league starter level 1B or DH.

[RBI Baseball]

Is the offence performing to expectation? Basically the rotation has fallen apart and that's the main issue? If so, it's probably worth seeing what you can get for them right now. With the way Greinke is currently performing it's addition by subtraction anyway, even if you expect some positive regression (and it's very possible that he's experiencing what Verlander has), so if you can get a lower rated MLB player who's under contract for even next year and is performing reasonably, you can maybe improve your team now and in the future.

[BBGiovanni]

Originally Posted by RBI Baseball

Is the offence performing to expectation? Basically the rotation has fallen apart and that's the main issue? If so, it's probably worth seeing what you can get for them right now. With the way Greinke is currently performing it's addition by subtraction anyway, even if you expect some positive regression (and it's very possible that he's experiencing what Verlander has), so if you can get a lower rated MLB player who's under contract for even next year and is performing reasonably, you can maybe improve your team now and in the future.

Yep with that information I'd ship him out and pick up someone else on a salary dump to pitch in the 4th spot. Or give Keuchel some spots and skip the 5 entirely when there are offdays, the new schedule is pretty helpful in that regard.

[Cynical]

No part of the team is performing to expectation, other than the bullpen (who are actually doing WAY better than I expected coming into this season). We're 9th in the AL in most offensive metrics (waaaaaaaay down from 2020, where we were #1 in nearly all of them; I expected some regression, but I wasn't expecting J. Bruce to go from >1.000 OPS to <.550, and Alvarez and Altuve to both be under .700 OPS); Correa, Bregman, and Tucker are the only position players who are really producing. We're worst in the AL in fielding, and 12th in starting pitching. The wheels have fallen off entirely it seems, but the starting pitching is the most visible part of that (although the single most spectacular fail of the season so far came on the part of relief pitching [albeit, a lot of it was bench players who got pressed into duty, since we were behind by double-digit runs already and the only BP guys availabe were my high-leverage guys, who I didn't want to waste], which ended up giving up 31 runs in two innings to the Royals, who were less than 0.333 winning percentage when we faced them, for a game we lost by a total of something like 48-6... it was right after that game when our good start went completely to hell, and we went on multiple 5+ game losing streaks with one win in between. Bottom of the 9th inning and we a homerun... and there were literally zero cheers accompanying the fireworks, our fans had given up so totally [or they had already just gone home]).

The problem with dumping Greinke now is roster flexibility... the biggest place I need improvement other than in SP is at the catcher position, and C. Shaver was a Rule 5 pick (needed a backup catcher on the cheap, since accquiring DeGrom filled up my budget), so I don't really have any way to improve there, since I can't get rid of him (unless I blatantly phantom IL him, but I'm not willing to be that unscrupulous). Maldonado's contract ends after this season, so I've got room for an improvement then. Next best would be in the DH position, and there's room for some improvement there, and Tsutsugo still has option years, so I've got the flexibility there... but still, going for a DH as a long-term play? Dunno, feels like dumping Greinke isn't a move worth making until I'm giving up on the season. Still... the thought of him degenerating like Verlander is a good point, and makes me wonder if it's time to dump him, just to avoid another player like that (I tried trading Verlander to another team and was willing to eat 100% of his salary... no one would give me even the most ridiculous fringe prospect for that, that's how bad Verlander has gotten).

EDIT: Now that I think of it, M. Diaz, despite being a power-pitching high-leverage reliever now, does have 55 Stamina... and when/if Osuna comes back, I'm not going to need as many high-leverage short relievers as I have... the plan was to trade J. Kelly off for a bag of balls, but trading Greinke for any decent prospect or player with a couple years of control and putting Diaz in the rotation seems like a real option. Or just go with Valdez as the "AAAA starter" option.

(Is there any way to get the AI to offer package deals of more than one player when shopping somebody? Not sure what's the most efficient way of initiating a trade.)

Yet another edit -- how much do I need to worry about fan popularity/backlash when making moves? Greinke is definitely popular, and I've gotten emails about upset fans when moving guys who are much less significant than him around. Does making other moves around it matter? I did just extend LMJ; will that help dissipate any backlash?

[CBeisbol]

If your guys are underperforming, you should expect them to regress, thus you should improve

[jimmysthebestcop]

I vote fire sale. That's always the most fun

[Brad K]

You're 8.5 out. Is your expected record on runs scored and runs allowed better or worse than your real record. How about the teams ahead of you? What if based on that you're 2.5 games out? OTOH, what if you're 14 out?

[Cynical]

I'm not at home right now, and thus can't look at the Angels' pythagorean record, but ours only has us every-so-slightly better than our real record (it has us at 25-28). That said, I don't know that pythagorean record changes the decision making any; while it may be interesting to note whether we "should" have more wins than we do, it doesn't change the fact that we don't, and real wins are what determine whether we've got a playoff hope (and thus should stay the course) or don't (and should abandon ship and prepare for 2022).

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Cynical

I'm not at home right now, and thus can't look at the Angels' pythagorean record, but ours only has us every-so-slightly better than our real record (it has us at 25-28). That said, I don't know that pythagorean record changes the decision making any; while it may be interesting to note whether we "should" have more wins than we do, it doesn't change the fact that we don't, and real wins are what determine whether we've got a playoff hope (and thus should stay the course) or don't (and should abandon ship and prepare for 2022).

The idea is that it's a better representation as to how you've played, thus, how you will play.

[Cynical]

At home now, and checked -- the Angels' pythagorean record is 33-21. So we're still 8 games behind them by that measure, too; the actual scoring and prevention of opponent scoring both need to improve drastically if this season isn't going to be a huge bust. At any rate, I've submitted a Greinke for Garver offer to the Twins; not seeing much downside here, in the short or long terms.

EDIT: Trade went through... and fans are mad. Holy crap,we lost an entire market size and fan loyalty rating from that!

DOUBLE EDIT: Since I didn't need Maldonado anymore, was able to trade him for Danny Santana, solving my DH problems. So, overall, I shipped out Greinke and Maldonado for Garver and Santana, promoted Armenteros to fill up the rotation slot, and demoted Gurriel to AAA (and plan to non-tender him in the offseason, since he's in arbitration)... seems like a pretty big overall improvement in roster quality, even if the fans are unhappy.

[Cynical]

For anyone wondering how this is turning out:


We're in early September now, one game behind in the division, and leading the wildcard, one game ahead of the Rays (who we'd be facing in the wildcard if the season ended today), and five games ahead of the Red Sox. A lot of that is luck -- we've overperformed our Pythatorean Record in July and August by quite a bit, but hey, playoff appearances are playoff appearances. As for some of the subplots:


Greinke got traded to the Twins for Garver. This ended up being a great trade for me; Greinke's ratings dropped quickly after I traded him, and then he got a season-ending injury in early August. Dodged a bullet and got a great catcher for myself.


DeGrom got it together, and is third in the AL in pitching WAR, third in strikeouts, and top 10 in ERA (you know things are getting crazy when 3.8-ish is "top 10 ERA"). If this was the real world, he wouldn't be in Cy Young award talks (that would be a contest between Cole and Snell -- #2 and #3 in ERA, #1 and #2 in WAR, #1 and #2 in Ks), but he's definitely become the team's ace.


George Springer's injury ended up being career ending -- a huge blow to the team. We've done a lot of trading around for outfield help since then, but we're down to having to start either Stuart Fairchild or Mike Gerber -- not ideal. We very briefly had Jason Lowe around to help as well, more on him later.


I've let Altuve hit 10/5 rights, which I know is a move I'm going to regret later -- his glove has already degenerated to the point that I have to play him as DH, and he's only been "decent" as a hitter this season... but I just bring myself to trade Altuve. Sentimentality wins out here, at least for now. I traded Rogelio Armenteros to the Braves to get Johan Camargo to play 2B, and he's doing shockingly well, with an OPS close to .900; I don't expect he'll remain this productive, but he's got one hell of a glove that he's projected to maintain, which should keep him on the team for a while.


Gausman got traded to the Mets (along with Lowe), where he continues to be mediocre-to-slightly-bad (5.3-ish ERA, but given how bonkers the offense has gotten in my world, that's not terrible). I saw Syndergaard on the trading block, and couldn't resist... yeah, he's a one year rental, but still, that's the sort of thing that can put you over the edge, and seems totally worth trading a "mediocre-with-potential" guy and a "good ratings but badly underperforming" guy for. Unfortunately, Syndergaard decided to suck hard as soon as he joined my team; since joining the Astros, he's got an ERA over 7, and a pitcher WAR of 0.5 (this trade was made almost exactly halfway through the season). Given how, even if we do end up making the playoffs, I don't think we have a real shot of winning it all (see below), this is a move that I'm really regretting.


I finally ended up releasing poor Verlander. I feel kind of awful about it, but he was angry as hell at me by the time I did it (he really didn't appreciate me trying to send him to the minors, then putting him on waivers in the hopes someone else would take him), he was impossible to trade, and there was no way in hell I was giving him the kind of role he wanted on the team, so it had to be done. He's now playing in -- and struggling in -- A+ ball on a minor league contract, for reasons I will never understand... dude, you have your millions of dollars and you're married to Kate Upton, go enjoy retirement!


In other news, Osuna got traded to the Yankees for Severino. I noticed in his first few starts that he couldn't get beyond about 70 pitches without hitting the wall and thought "WTF? This guy is showing as 65 stamina, what is going on here?" Then the OSA scouts updated his page with a "35 stamina" after about a month... gee, thanks for not noticing that one sooner, guys! My head scout still thinks he has 65 stamina, which has me seriously wondering about whether I trust him; sure, dude, your budget is low because we went over on our personnel budget, but are you even watching the games?!?! Correa is out for the season with a broken kneecap from a double-play slide, another huge blow for the team (and a big part of why I think that even if we do make it to the playoffs, we've got no real shot of winning it all -- the best I could do in the infield was bringing up Freudis Nova to play 3B, and a lineup of Garver(C)/Alvarez(1B)/Camargo(2B)/Bregman(SS)/Nova(3B)/Fairchild(CF)/Tucker(RF)/Brantley(LF)/Altuve(DH) with Gerber, Santana, and some random minor league callup for backup infielder sitting on the bench just isn't going to cut it.

[Cynical]

An update for those following along at home -- we didn't win the division, but did get in via the wildcard. The wildcard game was against the Rays; they made the inexplicable decision to not pitch their Cy Young candidate Snell, and we won in 12 innings. Next up was the ALDS, against the Yankees; we won that one in 4, continuing to vastly outperform our pythagorean record -- our wins were all by one run, and our loss was by eight runs.

Next up is the ALCS against the team that has been a thorn in my side throughout all of my time with OOTP -- the Angels. I don't think I've won a single series against them, I only barely pipped them out to win the division in 2020, and they took the division in 2021... gotta hope the dice fall my way against them for once.

[Art Deco]

Originally Posted by Cynical

An update for those following along at home -- we didn't win the division, but did get in via the wildcard. The wildcard game was against the Rays; they made the inexplicable decision to not pitch their Cy Young candidate Snell, and we won in 12 innings. Next up was the ALDS, against the Yankees; we won that one in 4, continuing to vastly outperform our pythagorean record -- our wins were all by one run, and our loss was by eight runs.

Next up is the ALCS against the team that has been a thorn in my side throughout all of my time with OOTP -- the Angels. I don't think I've won a single series against them, I only barely pipped them out to win the division in 2020, and they took the division in 2021... gotta hope the dice fall my way against them for once.

The Yankees know about coming up on the wrong end of Pythagorean records in a postseason series all too well, the 1960 World Series is probably the ultimate example of that: They won their games by 16-3, 10-0 and 12-0 scores but lost in 7 due to a 3-run loss, a 2-run loss and a pair of 1-run losses including the famous Game 7 with Mazeroski's walk-off HR.

[Cynical]

Welp, our continued inability to do anything against the Angels continues -- swept, with none of the games being even remotely close. Shutout twice, and the remaining two lost by seven runs or more. Current winning pct. against them across two seasons is under .200. Holy crap.

[sdw1000]

After coronavirus takes out half the season....oh wait..you mean in gaming...lol